Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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887 FXUS62 KILM 270700 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 300 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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An upper disturbance will bring a few showers later today, followed by drier and slightly cooler air through mid week. Summer warmth and humidity will return late week and into the weekend with a few thunderstorms in the mix.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 3 AM Tuesday...A very weak surface pressure pattern resides over the area this morning as noted by surface observations that have been reporting calm winds more or less for hours. In the water vapor channel a potent vort max can be seen moving through the mid Mississippi Valley. This feature will move across the area late this afternoon albeit with little moisture to work with. Most guidance has seemingly backed off what little activity they were producing with earlier cycles. It appears the "best" chances will be along the coastal areas for a change where higher dewpoints may advect in. We are advertising basically slight chance pops for a few hours this afternoon and early evening moving from northwest to southeast across the area. The MET numbers which performed better Monday look fine and with the numbers very close across the various products confidence is high in the temperature forecast with middle to upper 80s today and lower to middle 60s tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 3 AM Tuesday...Unseasonably dry and cool conditions will draw few complaints as the muggy feel remains absent from the sensible weather regime, as continental high pressure born from the upper US plains sinks SE into the Carolina skies. This short lived visit however will give way to in the inevitable return of summer as the surface high center slips offshore by Wednesday night. As a result, Thursday maximums will reach near normal values for late June, with dewpoints climbing back well into the 60s after the brief dry dip into the 50s Wednesday. The moisture profiles suggest diurnal cumulus is likely each day, but very dry air above 8000 feet will be unsupportive of any mentionable precipitation chances.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Monday...Long term period will be marked by the return of weather more typical of late June as Bermuda high pressure ridges back into the area. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s for the remainder of the period. Lows will increase into the lower 70s for remainder of the period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening, during the rest of the period.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 06Z...Expect VFR condtions through the period. The only possible caveats are a little MVFR BR in Lumberton this morning and isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as a decent shortwave moves through the flow. Pops aren`t high enough to include in the aviation forecast however. I did add a tempo group to address the BR in Lumberton for a few hours this morning. Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions possible in thunderstorms Sat. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Tuesday...Much like the inland areas, the coastal waters are as quiet as can be with winds in the single digits and seas of 1- 2 feet. With such a weak pattern its difficult to pin down a synoptic wind direction but northeast seems to be the most common. These quiet condtions will continue through the near term forecast period. There may be a very slight uptick in winds late tonight in the wake of a surface trough pushing across with a decent vort max in the mid levels. Overall conditions are expected to change little however. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Tuesday...Veering 10-15 KT winds start NE then E then SE late Wednesday as the center of high pressure over land slips offshore. With dry air aloft showers or TSTMS are not expected. By daybreak Thursday the high center will migrate to a position between the Outer Banks and Bermuda. This will prompt an E-SE flow Thursday and thursday night, with seas 2-3 feet and winds 15 KT or less. A few outer water showers are possible late Thursday but not of hazardous consequence. Seas SE in direction with mixed periods of 9 and 6 seconds. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...S to SW WINDS by Friday and prevailing through Saturday, speeds could top out around 15 kt Saturday. Seas around 2 feet are expected most of the period with a few 3 footers possible Saturday as winds increase slightly.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...8 NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...RAN AVIATION...SHK

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