Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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130 FXUS62 KILM 201918 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 318 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Mild weather will prevail through Friday before chillier air behind a cold front comes crashing into the eastern Carolinas Friday night. The weekend will be characterized by seasonably cool temperatures with lows in the 40s and highs remaining below 70 degrees Saturday and Sunday. A brief warm-up Monday will be followed by a reinforcing shot of dry and cool air Monday night. This will set the stage for dry and fair conditions in the upcoming week with temperatures near normal for the season. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 3 PM Thursday...Sea-breeze has worked its way inland with the the easterly flow in the lower levels. The high temperatures have reach the mid 80s inland and the marine influence show temperature in the upper 70s at the coast. For the overnight, mostly clear skies and lows tonight will range from the lower 60s inland to the mid to upper 60s at the immediate coast. Overnight, there will be a battle between patchy fog and/or possible stratus developing with a slight hint of a low-level jet developing overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Thursday...Friday: NAM and GFS continue to be close on timing of cold front that will sweep across the forecast and bring the first taste of fall weather for the region this year. The anafront structure of the cold front continues to be simulated by the models which means most of the precipiation will be at or behind the front which will enter the forecast area at or about 18 utc and exit the coast before 00 utc. If this timing is correct and the precipitable waters are correct showing values decreasing rapidly after the frontal passage, then the amount of qpf with this system will be limited, < 0.10". Finally most of the energy with the system is north of our area so this is another hint the chances of the convection appear limited. Friday night through Saturday night: the models continue to show strong cold air advection with NAM and GFS time heights showing 12 hour temperature changes of less than -10C air moving into the area late friday into saturday. This will result with lows falling into the mid to upper 40s Friday night and lower 40s to around 40. The GFS MOS is even showing a low of 39 at LBT Saturday night. At this time it does not look like we will break in low temperature records. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 3 PM Thursday...The salient headline banner this period displayed in the colors of fall reads `Mainly Clear with Autumn like Temperatures`. Seasonably cool air Sunday pooled across the area will rebound briefly Monday ahead of an approaching dry cold front Monday night. In wake of a clipper wave Monday resurging surface high pressure will escort a refreshing exchange of cool and continentally thirsty air across the Carolinas early Tuesday. This will present dry conditions co-joined by seasonable temps Tuesday through Thursday. The coolest portion of this period is the very onset daybreak Sunday. The mildest period remains Monday afternoon ahead of the dry frontal transit. Sunshine minutes will be flirting with maximum attainable values this period. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 19Z...VFR conditions will prevail through the evening then the development of fog and stratus overnight will lead to MVFR/IFR conditions. CIGs and VSBYs will improve after 13Z Friday with increasing southwest flow ahead of the cold front Friday morning. Extended Outlook...Potential for brief MVFR CIGs in the vicinity of widely scattered SHRA and isolated TSRA Friday afternoon. Otherwise, expect VFR to prevail Sat-Tue. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 PM Thursday...Light east winds under high pressure with wind waves running around 2.5 feet with a 1 ft swell from the southeast. As a cold front approaches from the west, a narrow high pressure ridge and a developing low pressure area well off the coast will continue to produce east to northeasterly winds that will increase to around 10 knots. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Thursday...Friday through Friday evening: A cold front will cross the waters on Friday afternoon. Winds will be from the southwest to west southwest at 10 to 15 knots ahead of the front, but behind the front is a different story. Cold air advection will be strong behind the front and northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots will occur with higher gust. Seas will increase to 4 to 7 feet at 20 miles off the coast but with an offshore flow the seas will be 2 to 3 feet. The winds are expected to relax later Saturday. A small craft advisory for these conditions are possible Friday night into Saturday. Winds will diminish some Saturday night as the sfc pg loosens a bit. With the center of the high progged to be over the Gulf coast states by Sun morning, winds across the area will remain active. Saturday and Saturday night: Wind and seas are expected to relax by Saturday evening with a north west wind of 15 knots and seas subsiding to 2 to 4 feet overnight Saturday. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 PM Thursday...Light to moderate WSW-W winds Sunday and Monday will be replaced with an uptick in NW winds as a dry cold front brushes offshore Monday night. The re-newed cool air surge should bring NW gusts to at least 20 KT Monday night turning N_NNE Tuesday with 20 KT gusts still in the mix. Thus it appears at a minimum an `Exercise Caution` headline may be needed, with `Advisory` marine conditions approached. The fact that sea surface temps are in relative contrast to the cooler air should promote efficient mixing of the lower atmospheric winds, and gusts to 25 KT cannot be discounted as improbable. No TSTMS this period nor restrictions to visibility. Manageable and friendly seas Sunday and Monday will turn more challenging Monday night and Tuesday as the wind-wave portion of the sea spectrum take grip of the sea. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 3 PM Thursday...The tide is falling downtown this afternoon and the coastal flood warning will be cancelled once the river level has fallen below the 5.5 ft level. The water level anomaly was approximately 1.3 feet which saw the river fall just short of the moderate flooding downtown. Definitely a good sign. Water levels are forecast to flirt with the moderate flood thresholds during the next few afternoon tide cycles, which is greater than or equal to 6.7 ft MLLW. The overnight tide cycles are expected only to fall short of the 6.7 ft level so expect coastal flood advisories to be issued overnight. High Tide Times and the forecast water level for the downtown Wilmington gage... 2:22 AM on Fri Oct 21...6.0 ft MLLW. 2:57 PM on Fri Oct 21...6.4 ft MLLW. 3:23 AM on Sat Oct 22...6.0 ft MLLW. Here are the flooding thresholds based on the downtown Wilmington Gage on the Lower Cape Fear River... Minor flooding......5.50 ft MLLW to 6.69 ft MLLW. Moderate flooding...6.70 ft MLLW to 7.99 ft MLLW. Major Flooding......8.00 ft MLLW && .EQUIPMENT... As of 3 PM Thursday...The ASOS at the Lumberton, NC airport (KLBT) has no power and the emergency generator which had maintained power since Hurricane Matthew has run out of fuel. LBT is awaiting a fresh supply of fuel so the equipment can be up and running again. Observations and climate data from Lumberton will remain missing until further notice. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...8 NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...DRH LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...SGL/SRP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRH EQUIPMENT...DRH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.