Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 272240 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 641 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A COOL DOWN. A RAINY START TO THE MONTH OF MAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 545 PM WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED BUT HAS STRUGGLED...UNDERSTANDABLE WHEN VIEWING VAPOR DATA REVEALING THE DRY AIR ALOFT. UPPER AIR DATA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ABOVE 500 MB OVERHEAD...AND EARLIER EVEN WITH A GOOD LOW-LEVEL BOOST FROM THE INLAND MARCHING SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE CONVECTION HAS NOT SUSTAINED ITSELF WELL. AS THERMALS WANE SO WILL CONVECTION AS MOISTURE ALOFT REMAINS IN LIMITED SUPPLY OVERNIGHT. A SOLID SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND ALLOW THE SYNOPTIC WINDS TO REGAIN COMPLETE CONTROL OF WIND DIRECTION IN THE MID-LATE EVENING FROM S-SSE TO SSW-SW. SSTS PARTIALLY INFLUENTIAL OVERNIGHT WILL HOLD MINIMUMS ALONG AND NEAR THE SEA AT ELEVATED READINGS NEAR 70. INLAND LOWS 64-68. PERSISTENCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL WIND JET WILL TRANSPIRE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF KLTX VWP REGISTERS 40 KT AT 1 KFT BY 1Z/9P. THIS WILL VERY LIKELY PUT THE KABASH ON MIST OR FOG FORMATION AS MIXING AND WARMTH REMAIN IN GOOD SUPPLY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY COMPARED TO TODAY. WHAT SHOULD CHANGE IS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AROUND NOON. THIS DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE A BIT FASTER IN TODAY`S 12Z MODELS THAN IT WAS A COUPLE DAYS AGO...AND I AM CONCERNED THAT WE MAY BE OVERFORECASTING POPS SOMEWHAT WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING OFFSHORE RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY. OUR LATEST FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING...PEAKING IN COVERAGE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AT 40-50 PERCENT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW...MAINLY TIED TO THE 30 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE MID-LEVELS. BULK SHEAR COMPUTED ACROSS THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS LESS THAN 30 KNOTS WHICH IS TYPICALLY THE THRESHOLD VALUE AT WHICH I START TO TAKE NOTICE. SPC IS MAINTAINING A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS A VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF THE SE UNITED STATES INCLUDING THE CAROLINAS. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...PERHAPS WORKING ON LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE 850-600 MB LAYER. POPS 30-40 PERCENT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST AS SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE MAY BE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOP WELL INLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE DOWN THIS WAY DURING THE EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BLEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH POPS ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING FRIDAY BUT NO COLD ADVECTION YET LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND! BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT A BETTER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH LATE...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SHOULD PREVENT ANY ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SUBTLE RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP RIDGING DEVELOPS OUT WEST WITH TROUGHING TO THE EAST. GUIDANCE WAVERING BACK AND FORTH ON A DECENT RAIN EVENT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT WE ARE MAINTAINING THE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HELP SOME AREAS RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY WITH A MUCH WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WHILE THE ECMWF IS STRONGER. HELD ONTO THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS TO ADDRESS. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...PRETTY QUIET NIGHT OVERALL AS THE ACTIVE CONVECTION ON THE NATIONAL RADAR WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS WELL AS THE SURFACE WILL BE TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT FOG. CONVECTION WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. TIME HEIGHT STILL SHOWS SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS DUE TO A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS WILL IMPEDE STORM FORMATION FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY...BUT SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY OVERCOME THIS...HOWEVER CONVECTION COVERAGE IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS RETURNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 545 PM WEDNESDAY...AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...A BUMPY 3 FEET AS 9 SECOND E WAVE ENERGY AND SSW MODERATE CHOP SHARE NEAR EQUAL WAVE ENERGIES...THUS MODERATE BUMPINESS ON TOP OF A ROLLING SWELL. NO TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATES. THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. SEAS CURRENTLY MEASURED AROUND 3 FEET CONSIST MAINLY OF 5-SECOND WIND WAVES WITH A SMALLER CONTRIBUTION FROM A 10-11 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL. WHILE 3 FEET DOESN`T SOUND TOO LARGE...5-SECOND PERIODS ARE QUITE CHOPPY CAN BE PUNISHING TO SMALLER BOATS. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY WITH GRADUALLY WEAKENING INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. THURSDAY SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH A HEALTHY AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED NEAR THE BEACHES. THERE SHOULD BE MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SHOULD ENSURE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO THE BEACHES AND OFFSHORE. THE WEAKENING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IN TWO STAGES: A WIND SHIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL TURN WINDS NORTHWESTERLY...FOLLOWED VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BY A FRONTAL SURGE FROM THE NORTHEAST THAT WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS INITIALLY FOR MOST OF SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY. A TYPICAL UPTICK AHEAD OF A FRONT MONDAY AND TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IN DIRECTION WILL OCCUR. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY BRIEFLY ON THE HIGHER END OF A 10-15 KNOT RANGE. OTHERWISE A GENERAL 10-15 RANGE WILL SUFFICE. NO SURPRISING TRENDS WITH REGARDS TO SEAS WITH A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...43 MARINE...TRA/SHK/MJC

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