Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 010745 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 340 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1100 PM TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED NE OF THE AREA AND WITH THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED. THUS...POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED...OR CUT TO SLIGHT CHANCE...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...WHERE A WEAK MESO-LOW MAY STILL SPARK A SHOWER BEFORE IT MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD DEBRIS AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. LOWS WILL BE NEAR 70 FOR MANY INLAND AREAS TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... MID LEVEL FLOW LOOKS PRETTY ZONAL ON THURSDAY THOUGH A HEALTHY-FOR- JULY SHORTWAVE DOES SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH. MOST PLACES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S BEFORE A SCATTERING OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS. ON FRIDAY THERE IS A SMALL BACKING IN THE MID LEVELS TO WSW THOUGH THE OVERALL 1000-500 MB RH FIELDS IN BOTH THE GFS AND WRF GO DOWN SLIGHTLY. SIMILARLY THERE IS NOT GOOD AGREEMENT IN HOW FAR SOUTH A FRONT SAGS. THE WRF GETS THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WHEREAS THE GFS KEEPS IT FURTHER NORTH AND ALLOWS A VERY HEALTHY PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE BUT SHOW HIGHER VALUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES IN DEFERENCE TO THE WRF. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF THURSDAY UNLESS STORMS FIRE UP OVER NORTHERN ZONES EARLY ENOUGH TO DISRUPT THE DIURNAL CURVE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO STAY STALLED CLOSE TO THE NC/VA BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS PAIRED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY PIEDMONT TROUGH AND WEAK SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH SUBTLY CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR NORMAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON, IF NOT A BIT MORE. ALSO, INSTABILITY MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS SLOW THE DECOUPLING PROCESS AND THIS LINGERING INSTABILITY `BENEFITS` FROM THE OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE-INDUCED PVA FOR LIFT. MODELS HONING IN ON AN INTERESTING POSSIBILITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN THAT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MAY WEAKLY CUT OFF. TROUBLE IS THEY SEEM TO THINK THE POSSIBILITIES OF WHERE THIS OCCURS RANGE FROM GA TO PA. FAIR TO SAY THAT MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN AND RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY AT OR ABOVE THEIR SEASONABLE NORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 06Z WEDNESDAY...PRECIP IS OVER FOR THE NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO FOG EXPECTED WITH DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WEDNESDAY...SHOULD BE A QUIETER DAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. ANY CONVECTION AT ALL WILL PROBABLY BE ALONG THE RESULTANT JUST AFTER MAX HEATING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MODERATE MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1100 PM TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS UP TO 20 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TOWARD MORNING AND WITH THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE DOMINANT WIND AND WAVE MAKER WILL BE THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH AND THUS WE EXPECT SWRLY FLOW AND AN AVERAGE 2-4 FT WAVE FORECAST. A FRONT MAY DROP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NC/VA BORDER ON FRIDAY THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE IS NOT SO CONVINCED AND INSTEAD SHOWS A PIEDMONT TROUGH BEING THE MORE DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURE. IF SO THEN SWRLY FLOW COULD BE BOLSTERED EVEN TO THE POINT WHERE SOME FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED OVER MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHOULD THIS FEATURE NOT GROW AS STRONG THEN THE FLOW MAY NOT GROW MUCH STRONGER ON FRIDAY AND INSTEAD SLIGHTLY VEER IN RESPONSE TO THE SAGGING YET DECELERATING BOUNDARY. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRENGTH MAY BE MODULATED BY WHERE THE BOUNDARY REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM STALLS. IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE IT REMAINS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY ALSO WASH OUT OR WEAKEN WHEN COMPARED TO ITS POSSIBLE STRENGTH LEADING UP TO THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DL/RAN

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