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000
FXUS62 KILM 280034
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
830 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers are possible this evening as a weak upper
level disturbance passes across the region. High pressure will
continue to build over the area on Wednesday and slide off the
coast by the weekend. This will allow for the return of warm and
humid weather conditions with mainly afternoon and even
thunderstorms through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...A very weak surface pressure pattern resides
over the area this afternoon with a fairly potent vort max moving
through attm.  This feature is producing enough lift to generate a
few showers.  Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible
through early evening but instability and moisture are fairly
limited.  As the upper feature moves out of the area tonight, partly
cloudy skies will become clear and continue into Wednesday.  Lows
tonight will fall to the low to mid 60s with highs Wednesday in the
mid to upper 80s.  Will carry a pop of 20 percent into early evening
for the convection.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Cool temperatures persist Thursday but
slow warming will develop late in the period as ridging
amplifies offshore. Cool surface high across the Mid-Atlantic
will shift offshore Thursday allowing winds to shift from E to S
as return flow develops. 850mb temps recover slowly however,
remaining around 12- 14C Thursday aftn, so despite abundant
sunshine thanks to a very dry column (PWATs around 1 inch) highs
will be pleasant in the mid to upr 80s. As return flow develops
late Thursday and especially Thursday night, mid-level ridge
blossoms offshore while a piece of vorticity energy lifts NE
from the GoM across the Carolinas. Forecast soundings suggest
cloud cover increasing rapidly Thursday night, and a weak
surface trough may develop along the coast. This will bring
increasing rain chances late in the period, especially across SC
zones, but residual dry air will keep POP limited to 30 percent
or less for now. This cloud cover and southerly winds will keep
mins around 70 Thursday night, about 5 degrees warmer than the
cool Wednesday night to start this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Bermuda high pressure will be well
established with the trough of low pressure inland. Temperatures
will be gradually warming and the moisture will be increasing
with dew points in the 70s returning. Precipitable waters over
the weekend increase to 2 inches and this will bring the best
coverage for diurnal thunderstorms with slightly less coverage
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 00Z...VFR through the period as post-frontal high pressure to
our north slides eastward. In fact the only FM groups in the TAFs
will be to reflect a gradual change in the wind direction as this
high moves east.

Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions possible in thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Winds have become SE at 5 to 10 KT over the
near shore waters in response to the sea breeze. The surface
reflection of the upper trough will turn winds to the N to NE
tonight and E on Wednesday at speeds invof 10 KT.  Seas of 2 feet or
less are on tap through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...High pressure migrating off the Mid-Atlantic
coast Wednesday night will take up position offshore during
Thursday. This allows winds to shift slowly through the period from
E Wednesday night, around to the S by Thursday night. As the high
pressure remains dominant, the pressure gradient will be weak so
wind speeds will just be around 10 kts regardless of direction.
Although winds will be light, lack of a meaningful ground swell will
allow a 6 sec wave to be predominant in the spectrum producing 2-3
ft seas across the waters.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Bermuda high pressure will be established
over the waters with winds shift from the south at 10 knots and
shifting to the southwest at 10 to 15 knots. Seas will range
between 2 to 3 feet Friday and Saturday and 3 to 4 feet on
Sunday,

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAN
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...DRH
AVIATION...MBB