Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 160606 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 206 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S STILL EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WHICH IS JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW PRESENT VALUES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING. NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A LINGERING FRONT THAT WAS SOUTH OF AREA WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. A MINOR PERTURBATION IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY TUES HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TUES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD MERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE SC COAST THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED BEFORE AMPLIFYING MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES THE WHOLE SYSTEM OFF SHORE. THE HIGHEST PCP WATER VALUES WILL CREEP BACK NORTH THROUGH TUES MORNING REMAINING OVER EASTERN CAROLINAS BEFORE GETTING PUSHED OFF SHORE. THEREFORE SHOULD SEE DECENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUES AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG LINGERING FRONT WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. PCP WATER VALUES UP ABOVE 2 INCHES ON TUES WILL DECREASE SLOWLY TO 1.5 INCHES BY WED AND DOWN TO 1.3 INCHES BY EARLY THURS MORNING AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST WITH DEEPER DRIER NW FLOW DEVELOPING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 5K FT WILL PERSIST AND THEREFORE EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME DRIER AIR DOES MAKE IT INTO AREA IN W-NW LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BY TUES AFTN AND THEREFORE MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE DAY ON TUES. THE BEST CHC OF HEAVIER SHWRS/TSTMS WILL EXIST ON TUES...BUT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SOME PCP IN THE AREA THROUGH WED. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT TRICKY ON TUES. SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID 80S AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTH OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND IN PLACES THAT SEE SOME BRIGHTENING OF SKIES TUES AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE LOWER ON WED AS COOLER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN BEHIND FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUDS BLANKETING THE AREA MOST OF THE TIME. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST EXPANDS EAST. DEVELOPMENT OF PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND FRI WILL HELP PUSH SURFACE HIGH RIDGING DOWN THE COAST THU/FRI OFF THE COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO LOW CLOUDS...BELOW CLIMO TEMPERATURES...AND THE THREAT OF PRECIP FOR SAT AND SUN. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL CLEAR SKIES AND BRING ABOUT A RETURN TO SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT...PUSHED BY A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MON. FROPA TIMING STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS IT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM MON MORNING TO MON EVENING. LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AND NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE SHOULD KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS REGARDLESS OF TIMING. IF THE FRONT ARRIVES LATER AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO DEVELOP COVERAGE WOULD BE INCREASED...AS WOULD THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. FOR NOW FAVOR THE SLOWER SOLUTION GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR MID LEVEL RIDGING TO HOLD ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT OVERNIGHT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO FILL IN ONCE AGAIN AS COOL MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CIGS IS INLAND AT KFLO/KLBT AFTER 09Z. ALONG THE COAST... 1-2KFT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR BY DAYBREAK CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KCRE/KMYR. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMS THIS MORNING AS DEEPER MOISTURE INCREASES WITH A REMNANT FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD EMERGE DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS LIGHT NORTH WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTHWARD. BUT ATTM...IT APPEARS THE WIND SHIFT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER AIR WEDGES INTO THE REGION. EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON THU. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT OR LESS. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE ON TUES AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG LINGERING FRONT TO THE SOUTH AS IT MAKES ITS WAY BACK NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY WINDS WILL TAKE ON A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW. OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SEAS HOLDING BELOW 3 FT TUES. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE E-NE THROUGH WED EXPECT AN INCREASE UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A LONG PERIOD UP TO 16 SEC EASTERLY SWELL TO PUSH SEAS UP TO 2 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FTERS IN OUTER WATERS ON WED. THE LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE LOCAL WATERS TUES AFTN PEAKING AROUND 16 SECONDS OVERNIGHT TUES. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A COMBINATION OF SCEC AND SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST THU AND FRI WILL MAINTAIN PINCHED GRADIENT WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 20 KT AT TIMES. GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX A LITTLE SAT AS HIGH ELONGATES. HOWEVER...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN A SOLID 15 KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT THU NIGHT OR FRI...MAINLY IN WATERS EXPOSED TO PROLONGED NORTHEAST FLOW. SHELTERED WATERS MAY SEE AS LOW AS 2 FT. SEAS THU WILL BE A COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING WIND WAVE AND SWELL FROM EDOUARD. SEAS FRI AND SAT WILL BE WIND WAVE DOMINATED. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...REK/RJD/TRA SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...III AVIATION...BJR MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/III/RGZ

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