Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 280034 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 830 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated showers are possible this evening as a weak upper level disturbance passes across the region. High pressure will continue to build over the area on Wednesday and slide off the coast by the weekend. This will allow for the return of warm and humid weather conditions with mainly afternoon and even thunderstorms through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...A very weak surface pressure pattern resides over the area this afternoon with a fairly potent vort max moving through attm. This feature is producing enough lift to generate a few showers. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible through early evening but instability and moisture are fairly limited. As the upper feature moves out of the area tonight, partly cloudy skies will become clear and continue into Wednesday. Lows tonight will fall to the low to mid 60s with highs Wednesday in the mid to upper 80s. Will carry a pop of 20 percent into early evening for the convection. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Cool temperatures persist Thursday but slow warming will develop late in the period as ridging amplifies offshore. Cool surface high across the Mid-Atlantic will shift offshore Thursday allowing winds to shift from E to S as return flow develops. 850mb temps recover slowly however, remaining around 12- 14C Thursday aftn, so despite abundant sunshine thanks to a very dry column (PWATs around 1 inch) highs will be pleasant in the mid to upr 80s. As return flow develops late Thursday and especially Thursday night, mid-level ridge blossoms offshore while a piece of vorticity energy lifts NE from the GoM across the Carolinas. Forecast soundings suggest cloud cover increasing rapidly Thursday night, and a weak surface trough may develop along the coast. This will bring increasing rain chances late in the period, especially across SC zones, but residual dry air will keep POP limited to 30 percent or less for now. This cloud cover and southerly winds will keep mins around 70 Thursday night, about 5 degrees warmer than the cool Wednesday night to start this period. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Bermuda high pressure will be well established with the trough of low pressure inland. Temperatures will be gradually warming and the moisture will be increasing with dew points in the 70s returning. Precipitable waters over the weekend increase to 2 inches and this will bring the best coverage for diurnal thunderstorms with slightly less coverage early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 00Z...VFR through the period as post-frontal high pressure to our north slides eastward. In fact the only FM groups in the TAFs will be to reflect a gradual change in the wind direction as this high moves east. Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions possible in thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...Winds have become SE at 5 to 10 KT over the near shore waters in response to the sea breeze. The surface reflection of the upper trough will turn winds to the N to NE tonight and E on Wednesday at speeds invof 10 KT. Seas of 2 feet or less are on tap through Wednesday. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...High pressure migrating off the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday night will take up position offshore during Thursday. This allows winds to shift slowly through the period from E Wednesday night, around to the S by Thursday night. As the high pressure remains dominant, the pressure gradient will be weak so wind speeds will just be around 10 kts regardless of direction. Although winds will be light, lack of a meaningful ground swell will allow a 6 sec wave to be predominant in the spectrum producing 2-3 ft seas across the waters. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...Bermuda high pressure will be established over the waters with winds shift from the south at 10 knots and shifting to the southwest at 10 to 15 knots. Seas will range between 2 to 3 feet Friday and Saturday and 3 to 4 feet on Sunday, && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RAN SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...DRH AVIATION...MBB

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