-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 121729
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
129 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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SPRING LIKE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...A BROAD AND POTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FEATURES DELINEATED WELL WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH BISECTING NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. THE ARCTIC FRONT SHOWS UP EVEN BETTER CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN GEORGIA. I HAVE REMOVED POPS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS VIA RADAR TRENDS. THE LATEST GFS IS SHOWING
THE SIGNAL THE NAM HAS BEEN ADVERTISING WITH A NARROW LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY
AROUND 0300 UTC.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE THE STORY LATE TONIGHT WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO MINUS SIX DEGREES C. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UP EVER SO SLIGHTLY AND I HAVE FOLLOWED SUITE
ALTHOUGH REALLY THE CHANGE AMOUNTS TO ONE OR TWO DEGREES. GUSTY
WINDS WILL KEEP SURFACE READINGS FROM DROPPING TOO FAST.

LATE ADDITION...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS FROM NOW
UNTIL 1000 UTC THURSDAY. AS USUAL...MAY NOT MEET SPECIFIC CRITERIA
BUT LONGEVITY OF THE GUSTS AND DEBRIS...IT IS WARRANTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HARSH RETURN TO REALITY THURSDAY AS STRONG
CAA BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT DRIVES TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
MARCH...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS!
EVEN THE INCREASINGLY STRONG SUN ANGLE WILL DO LITTLE TO HELP WARM
THINGS UP THURSDAY...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN SUB-50 ACROSS NC
THURSDAY...WITH SOME LOW 50S POSSIBLE IN THE PEE DEE REGION AND
TOWARDS THE SANTEE RIVER. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY WILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID/UPR 40S...SO JUST A
BRUTALLY COLD MARCH DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE WARMTH OF THE PAST
WEEK.

AS ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL PLUMMET
AFTER DARK...AND A WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING EVENT IS LIKELY. WHILE
THE OFFICIAL LOCAL GROWING SEASON HAS NOT BEGUN AS OF YET...EARLY
AND SENSITIVE PLANTS WILL NEED TO BE PROTECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID/UPR 20S...WITH MANY HOURS OF SUB-32 TEMPS
EXPECTED.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
MID-LEVEL THICKNESS INCREASE. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPS FRIDAY
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN A
SOLID 6-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 50S COMMON ACROSS THE
AREA...LOWER 60S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
TRY TO DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE LATE
IN THE PERIOD. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SKY COVER/POP FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL LEAN ON THE NAM/ECMWF WHICH ARE WEAKER AND MORE
REASONABLE IN RELATIVELY FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK MOIST
ADVECTION. MINS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO SEASONABLE LEVELS...LOW
40S MOST PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE WKND WILL HELP TEMPS RISE TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
EARLY SUNDAY. GUIDANCE DIFFERS AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS SHOWING DECENT RAIN
CHANCES WHILE THE ECMWF IS PRIMARILY DRY. AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...DEEP BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF
COAST WOULD SUPPORT SOME FORCING AND PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
OVERALL MOIST ADVECTION IS LIMITED ON THE ZONAL FLOW. STILL...SCHC
POP IS INHERITED AND WILL REMAIN LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE QPF.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EMERGE OUT OF THE GULF AS A STRONGER
SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE DIVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST SPAWNING
CYCLOGENESIS WHICH WILL THEN TRAVERSE NEAR OR OVER THE AREA INTO
MONDAY. MUCH BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...AND THE
SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIME-FRAME COULD BE QUITE WET. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FEATURE...BUT TEMPS
WILL FALL ONLY TO SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...ISOLATED PATCHES OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE ONLY WARRANTS A VCSH MENTION. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE AND
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. THE NAM IS HINTING AT A
SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING...AND HAVE ADDED
A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. POST FRONTAL...LOOK FOR
STRONG WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY
WITH A CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. UNSETTLE WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
INTERMITTENT RAIN AND POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE
THE GALE WARNING WHICH IS ON SCHEDULE TO BEGIN AT 6 PM. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...BUT AT THIS
LATE HOUR WILL NOT TWEAK THE TIME. WITH THE LATER TIMING WINDS AND
SEAS ARE LAGGING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL RESPOND RATHER
QUICKLY.



SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC FRONT OFFSHORE TO START THE
PERIOD LEAVES STRONG NW WINDS IN ITS WAKE...AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
20-30 KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY...EASING THURSDAY
NIGHT TO AROUND 10 KTS WHILE BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS OF 4-7 FT THE FIRST HALF THURSDAY WILL DROP QUICKLY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WINDS EASE WHILE STILL MAINTAINING AN
OFFSHORE COMPONENT...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BECOMING 1-3 FT FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY...SO WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE MUCH OF THE DAY...EVENTUALLY TAKING ON A
PREDOMINANT SW DIRECTION AROUND 10 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS REMAIN
LOW-AMPLITUDE HOWEVER...PERSISTING AT 1-3 FT INTO THE WKND.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SATURDAY LEAVES
10-15 KTS SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS ON RETURN FLOW. THESE WINDS
WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS AND TURNS THE WINDS TO THE NW...THEN NE...ON SUNDAY BUT
AT SPEEDS OF ONLY 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL RISE BRIEFLY TO 3-5 FT
DURING THE STRONGEST SW WINDS SATURDAY AFTN...BUT WILL OTHERWISE BE
2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-
     033-039-053>056.

NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-105-
     107>110.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     AMZ250-252-254-256.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL