Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 200816 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 316 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM CUTS BY TO OUR SOUTH. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY WHEN A STORM MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. CLEAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 3:30 AM SATURDAY...LEADING EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE SW IN THE FORM OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS AND GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE THE SE US COAST. PRIME TIME FOR THE RAIN WILL BE MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER EAST OFFSHORE. RAIN EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT WITH SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN. HIGHEST QPF TOTALS ALONG THE COAST NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED A QUARTER INCH. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND COOL NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MOST PLACES. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SOME DRYING MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY MAINLY OVER NWRN ZONES. COASTAL LOCALES WILL STAY QUITE CLOUDY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION AND THE MORE PROXIMAL NATURE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. MOISTURE COMES WASHING BACK IN SUNDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION RIDES ATOP THE WEDGE AND SOME LIGHT RAIN APPEARS LIKELY AREA-WIDE MOST OF MONDAY. AS SURFACE WAVE MOVES RAPIDLY UP MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT PRECIP SHUTS OFF BUT CLOUD COVER WILL BE TOUGH TO SHAKE. SUNDAYS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. A SLIGHT ASSERTION OF THE WEDGE ON MONDAY COULD KNOCK INLAND TEMPS DOWN KEEPING SOME PLACES FROM REACHING 50.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WEDGE WILL HOLD ON WEAKLY ON TUESDAY SOME SERIOUS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN FLOODING INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN BREAKING OUT THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE DEEPER ASCENT KICKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING EVEN STRONGER FORCING WILL BE IMPINGING UPON THE REGION BUT THE SYNOPTIC DRY SLOT MAY BE AS WELL. TIMING THESE FACTORS WILL BE CRITICAL SINCE AS-IS IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION MIXED IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. BUT SHOULD THE DRY SLOT MOVE IN MORE SLOWLY THEN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE AS BL WINDS CRANK UP TO 50KT OR SO. STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY WEDNESDAY EVENING LEADING TO A CHILLY CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT BUT A MODERATION BACK TO CLIMO EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWING THE LATE WED FROPA MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL TEND TO BE THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING -RA TO OUR AREA BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK...FIRST AT KFLO AND KMYR/KCRE FOLLOWED BY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. MID LEVEL VFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING AS PRECIP SATURATES THE LOW LEVELS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR MVFR CIGS DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPO IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THE COASTAL SITES WHERE HEAVIER PRECIP IS POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY 21Z INLAND AND BEFORE 00Z ALONG THE COAST. BUT WITH LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OFFSHORE...LOW CLOUDS 2-4KFT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON SUN. RAIN LIKELY MON WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED TUE/WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WED. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3:30 AM SATURDAY...MODEST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID TERM AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO PASSES EAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS WILL PEAK BRIEFLY THIS EVENING IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...OTHERWISE FOR THE MOST PART WE WILL SEE 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS THIS EVENING MAY PROMPT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A FRONT WILL BE STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY WHILE A WEAK RIDGE/WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE LANDMASS. THE RESULTING NE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL AS WILL SEAS...BOTH PRECLUDING ANY ADVISORY/CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THE FRONT MOVES CLOSE TO IF NOT INTO THE FORECAST ZONES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND WILL GROW LIGHTER AND THE DIRECTION FORECAST MAY GET IFFY DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE FRONT GETS. BY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK OUT TO SEA AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. FLOW WILL TURN BACK TO OFFSHORE AND INCREASE BY A FEW KNOTS. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THOUGH QUIET TO START CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOSES INFLUENCE OVER THE LANDMASS AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MARCH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RAMP UP WIND AND SEAS LATE TUESDAY BUT MOSTLY TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED. WINDS LIKELY NOT TO SLACKEN MUCH WITH WED AFTERNOON FROPA, JUST A SHARP VEER IN DIRECTION. FLAGS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...REK/BJR

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