


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --130 FXUS62 KILM 301937 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 337 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --An approaching cold front will bring elevated rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures later Tuesday through Wednesday. The weakening front will then slowly move through Friday with a return of more typical summertime weather likely through early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Latest surface analysis shows Bermuda high pressure extending westward towards the Carolinas. Diurnal cumulus have dotted the sky this afternoon, while a few isolated showers have traversed parts of the area, with storm motions moving in a near perfect straight line from south to north. Isolated showers and storms will continue periodically through this evening, before dying off after sunset. Lows tonight in the mid-to-upper 70s. Elevated boundary layer winds should keep fog concerns out of the way. Mid-level trough pattern associated with a cold front deepens Tuesday, bringing a little more forcing to the area. Meanwhile, an upper low offshore of Florida spins closer to the GA/FL coast, bringing an even stronger dose of vorticity aloft. The seabreeze and the Piedmont trough will the centerpieces in convective initiation, but with more energy aloft, storms are expected to be more organized and scattered than today. Some storms may bring in some higher wind gusts, but no severe weather is expected. Outside of convective winds, gradient winds tighten, and gusts up to 25 mph are possible. Highs Tuesday in the lower 90s inland, upper 80s at the coast. Some of the inland locales may achieve a heat index near 100 degrees.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --Key Messages/Highlights: *Near to above normal low temps and near to below normal high temps *Near to above normal rain chances *Low risk for flash flooding Wednesday/Wednesday night *No significant severe storm risk Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: An inland trough will give way to an approaching cold front and more troughing aloft and deeper moisture which will lead to increased rain chances, especially Wed. The lack of significant deep layer shear and low instability will keep the risk for severe storms very low, however the deep moisture and pretty weak deep layer winds should lead to a slightly enhanced risk for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding. High temps Wed will be kept near to below normal while overnight low temps should be near to above normal.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Key Messages/Highlights: *Above normal rain chances through Thu; generally near normal chances Thu night through Mon *Very low severe storm/flash flood risk through the period *Near to above normal temps *Very low risk of a likely weak tropical cyclone developing well to our south/southeast late this week into early next week; moderate to high confidence in no significant direct impacts to SE NC & NE SC Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: A stalling/weakening cold front should slowly move offshore Friday followed by high pressure from the north. The main question mark is whether a tropical or subtropical cyclone develops along the front well south/southeast of the area. However, even if one does develop, the risk for any significant impacts to SE NC and NE SC remains very low, especially as the system should be far enough away and not that strong. Otherwise, generally anticipate a fairly summertime pattern beyond Thu into early next week with mainly afternoon/evening showers/storms, especially near the coast, and potentially also late night/early morning showers/storms offshore/near the coast. No significant severe/flash flood risk is anticipated. Heat indices should stay below Heat Advisory levels (105 degrees).-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Scattered cirrus this morning will transition to daytime Cu at 4500-5500 ft development by late morning. Have indicated prob30 groups for convective potential associated with the sea breeze across the coastal terminals late this morning into the early aftn...and for the inland terminals mid to late aftn thru mid evening. Looking at S-SSW winds around 5 kt at all terminals initially. Becoming SSE-S around 10 kt at the coastal terminals late this morning once the sea breeze develops, further increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this aftn into the evening. Inland terminals, winds becoming S around 10 kt by midday and persisting into the evening. Modest LLJ with SW winds 20-30 kt will persist across the area tonight, keeping winds active across all terminals and keeping fog potential at a minimum if any. Extended Outlook...Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible Tue from scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms. The potential further increases mid to late week as a cold front drops to the area and convection increases both coverage and intensity.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --Through Tuesday...Gradient winds on the rise this period, with S to SSW winds at 15-18 kts increasing to 20-22 kts. Frequent gusts over 25 kts will trigger a Small Craft Advisory to go in effect at 11 AM EDT Tuesday, continuing until 5 AM EDT Wednesday. Seas at 2-3 ft increase to 4-5 ft. Tuesday night through Saturday...Moderate to high confidence. An approaching cold front will weaken as it slowly moves through late week. Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected Tue night, mainly due to wind gusts around 25 kt. Otherwise, no headlines are anticipated as seas mostly stay 5 ft or less.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...-- Changed Discussion --Other - Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents forecasted for the beaches of Brunswick County, as well as beaches north of Myrtle Beach in Horry County, for Tuesday and Wednesday as southerly 6 sec swell builds to 4-5 feet ahead of an approaching cold front. Breaking wave heights around 5 feet may be possible on Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...IGB SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...IGB MARINE...RJB/IGB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...