Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 062258 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 658 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... DRIER AIR WILL WRAP IN BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BUT UNSEASONABLE WARMTH IS SLATED FOR THEREAFTER. ONLY SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. FRIDAY MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE CURRENT AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...AND THEIR SLOW DISSIPATION THIS EVENING DUE TO THE EVENTUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A COUPLE WEAK MID- LEVEL VORTS WILL HELP MAINTAIN PCPN OCCURRENCE AFTER DAYBREAK. ONE PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND INTO THE ADJACENT ATL WATERS LATER THIS EVENING...AND THE OTHER BYPASSING THE AREA TO OUR NORTH AND OFF THE CENTRAL CAROLINA COAST DURING THE PRE-DAWN SAT HRS. THE MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED PCPN CLOUDINESS WILL ALSO DISSIPATE OR SCOUR OUT SEVERAL HRS AFTER SUNSET...WITH DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL VORTS AIDING THE PARTIAL CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE PRE-DAWN SAT HRS. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR MIN TEMPS AT THE POINT. SHOULD SEE A DECENT SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSION ALL NIGHT WHICH WILL BE IN FAVOR OF A FOG-LESS NIGHT. PREVIOUS..................................................... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SHOWERS HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. I HAVE CONTINUED TO WALK BACK POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH THE DELAYED START...IF IT STARTS AT ALL...I HAVE REMOVED THUNDER. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS CLOUDS DIMINISH AND ANY SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE LONG DISSIPATED. GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN TRANSITION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY SATURDAY WILL BACK TO WESTERLY SUNDAY WITH SUBTLE SIGNS OF RIDGING BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES STARTING SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE EXTENDED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE MAIN LOW NEAR THE DELMARVA WILL TRANSITION TO HIGH PRESSURE LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH WEAKENING SUNDAY. THE BIG STORY IS THE WARMTH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT AND THUS A WARMING WIND. HAVE STEPPED UP HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO BUT REMAIN JUST BELOW THE WARM MAV NUMBERS. THE MEX AND NOW MAV HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THESE NUMBERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS SO THERE IS PROBABLY SOMETHING TO IT. BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE SUNDAY BUT DID NOT ADD POPS AS GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY DRY WITH THE FEATURE. THE ENTIRE PERIOD IS DRY AS WELL.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ON MONDAY WITH THE LAST VESTIGE OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. EXPECT UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND AMPLE SUNSHINE. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WEAKENS AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS WILL TAKE THE FORM OF MORE MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS BUT THERE STILL SEEM NO MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN ON WEDNESDAY AND THERE WILL BE NO MORE MID LEVEL RIDGE. IN THE ABSENCE OF ITS CAPPING A FEW WEAK VORT MAXES MAY MANAGE TO TOUCH OFF THE STRAY SHOWER OR STORM BUT WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST. FLOW WEAKENS THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN THURSDAY BUT A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE AREA. THE END RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF THE WARMTH AND MINIMAL BUT NON- ZERO RAIN CHANCES. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE STREAKING ACROSS ON FRIDAY MAY OFFER THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW HAVE HELPED DEVELOP AN EXPANSIVE COVER OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CAROLINAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND IN OUR AREA WILMINGTON (ILM) STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY IMPACTS FROM THESE SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS HAVE RISEN ABOVE 3000 FEET AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 3500-5000 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH WE COULD MAINTAIN SOME MID-LEVEL ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS A BIT LONGER. NORTHWEST BREEZES 8-12 KT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HOLD IN THE 10 TO OCCASIONALLY 15 KT SPEEDS THRUOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS A RESULT OF THE AREA WATERS REMAINING UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW SFC THRU ALOFT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR SHORE WHERE THE OFFSHORE WINDS FLATTEN OUT THE WIND WAVES...LEAVING A PREVAILING SOUTHEAST 1 TO 2 FOOT GROUND SWELL AT 8 TO 9 SECOND PERIODS. PREVIOUS..................................................... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS FLOW IS DUE TO THE CIRCULATION BETWEEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER END OF A 10-15 KNOT RANGE EARLY DROPPING TO THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET. SHORT TERM/SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEST AND SOMETIMES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WITH A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS. OTHERWISE IT WILL MOSTLY BE 10-15 AND LEANING TOWARD THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE RANGE. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WITH A FEW FIVE FOOTERS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY EVENING. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY... SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE POORLY DEFINED. LATER TUESDAY THE HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS BACK TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS AND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY. AMID THESE MINOR WIND CHANGES THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEEDS. OVERALL SEAS WILL SHOW LITTLE VARIATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE TRIFECTA FOR COASTAL FLOODING THIS EVENING. DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND MYRTLE BEACH GUIDANCE ARE ALL SHOWING ADVISORY OR MINOR THRESHOLDS BEING MET. THE PROGGED NUMBERS AND ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THUS CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR ITS OCCURRENCE. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCATIONS THRU 10 PM...EXCEPT ENDING EARLIER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054- 056. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106- 108-110. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DCH/SHK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MAC TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DCH/SHK

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