Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 290723 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 323 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A VERY WEAK BUT DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A COLD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST IS THREATENING TO TIE OR BREAK RECORD LOWS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS KEEPING ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS NOW TO GENERATE 5-10 MPH WINDS AND IS PRECLUDING A NOCTURNAL SURFACE INVERSION. JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WINDS MAY BECOME VERY LIGHT OR CALM CREATING A NARROW WINDOW FOR RAPID TEMPERATURE FALLS AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION STRENGTHENS. RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING (SUNDAY MORNING MARCH 29) WILMINGTON 31 IN 2011 FLORENCE 28 IN 1966 NORTH MYRTLE BEACH 31 IN 2013 RESIDUAL COLD ADVECTION WILL TURN NEUTRAL BY DAYBREAK...WITH WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH 52-55 ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA AND 55-58 ACROSS NE SOUTH CAROLINA...EXCEPT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AT THE BEACHES WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE. WITH THE HIGH JUST STARTING TO PUSH OFFSHORE AT SUNSET AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY 9 PM. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET PLUS INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL HELP ERODE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION AFTER 2 AM...PRODUCING A RISING TEMPERATURE CURVE. THE 00Z GFS IS THE FASTEST MODEL WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN TO WARRANT ANY WX OR POPS. THE BULK OF OTHER MODELS PLUS THE SREF ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER MON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE PARENT LOW THERE IS A SUBTLE 5H FEATURE HELPING PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST PVA AHEAD OF THE FEATURE ALONG WITH PERIOD OF INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION. HOWEVER DO THINK WHAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE ON THE WEAK/LIGHT SIDE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEVER SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING ABOVE 1 INCH AND INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AROUND 8K FT. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMICS MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE STABLE LAYER THE LACK OF MOISTURE IS APT TO KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE CONVECTION UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL CONTINUE WITH INHERITED HIGH CHC LIKELY POP FOR MON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND HIGHS AND LOWS WILL END UP BELOW CLIMO. PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT ON TUE WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THERE WILL BE A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE MID LEVEL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW BUT IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH. SHOULD IT TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IT MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ALONG WITH WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS WARMER BUT ULTIMATELY BELOW CLIMO TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ONLY BE DISRUPTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ON THU AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH COUPLED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE/DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REGION BRIEFLY DRIES OUT LATE THU NIGHT AND FIRST PART OF FRI AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT. FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIMING CROSSING THE REGION...DUE TO THE FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT EVENTUALLY A SUBTLE 5H IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY SAT WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. NO FOG EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE GREATER THAN 10 DEGREES. ALSO N WINDS WILL BE AOB 7 KT THROUGH SUNRISE. N WIND SPEEDS AFTER DAYBREAK WILL INCREASE SOME...BUT WILL BECOME LIGHT SW-W DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY SCT HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. DURING THE EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND AGAIN THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. A SURGE LINE MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS. AT THE BEACHES GUSTS ARE REACHING 15 KNOTS WHILE FARTHER OFFSHORE AT BUOY 41037 (WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH OFFSHORE BUOY) WINDS ARE GUSTING TO NEARLY 25 KNOTS. THIS SURGE OF STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LAST ONLY UNTIL DAYBREAK BEFORE DIMINISHING QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A WEAK SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE THE HIGH WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND INLAND-TO-MARINE AIR TEMP DIFFERENCES WILL REMAIN SMALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS. BEHIND THIS HIGH THIS EVENING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. AT THE BUOYS SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE (1 FOOT NEARSHORE IN THE LEE OF LONG BAY) TO OVER 4 FEET OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. SEAS MAY INCREASE A BIT MORE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TO 1-2 FEET THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE HIGH...THEN WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FEET OVERNIGHT DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT ITSELF LACKS SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND THE POST FRONT GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE 10 TO 15 MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MON BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. ONLY SHOT AT HEADLINES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW MON AFTERNOON. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SCA CONDITIONS SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SANS HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS AND EXPECTED WARM ADVECTION. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST WED AND SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS CONTINUE VEERING...ENDING UP SOUTHEAST THU AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED THU AND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-053>056. NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-099- 105>110. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...MRR/TRA

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