Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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904 FXUS62 KILM 241546 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1048 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure passing offshore this morning, will move further away from the area this aftn allowing dry high pressure to dominate tonight into Saturday. A dry cold frontal passage will occur Saturday night followed by modified Canadian high pressure Sunday through the early to mid-week period of next week. Temperatures up to this point in time will run near the climo norms for this time of the year. A milder trend will occur late next week as high pressure moves offshore and low pressure approaches from the west. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 AM Friday...Gradually weakening southern stream wave, currently along the eastern Gulf Coast, will continue to lift northeast today, passing off the coast overnight. As the feature lifts northeast it will push the stalled front, associated surface waves, and deep moisture plume farther away from the area. Clouds will linger along the coast through midday, in vary degrees, before starting to thin out by early afternoon. Inland areas will remain mostly cloud free today. Surface flow will be from the north-northeast as elongated high pressure to the west slides east. This will keep temps a little cooler than 850 temps around 9C and abundant sunshine would suggest. Highs will end up right around 60 for most areas. Minimal changes this morning. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Friday...Overall longwave pattern aloft not to change much this period. This pattern includes low amplitude upper troffing affecting the U.S. east of the Mississippi River Valley and low to mid amplified upper ridging west of the Mississippi to the Pacific Coast. Main storm tracks to remain across Canada with occasional lows traversing along the US- Canada border ie. across the Great Lakes and the NE States. Looking at a quiet weekend weather-wise. The only highlight will be a cold frontal passage slated for late Sat evening into the pre-dawn Sun hrs before moving off the Carolina Coasts altogether by daybreak Sun. The low attached to this lengthy cold front will be in Eastern Canada at the time of this CFP. With the cold front well displaced from the dynamics associated with the low, will have to turn to it`s own frontal dynamics as the primary forcing, which will be enough for cloudiness, but just too weak for any pcpn development. With no tapping of any major moisture source pools, ie. Gulf of Mexico or Atlantic Waters, will have to rely on the moisture accompanying the cold front. And this moisture will be quite limited especially after it crosses the Appalachians where scouring will occur due to the downslope trajectories. With all this said, have kept POPs null and void thruout this fcst period which includes the CFP. Skies in general this period will be mostly clear/sunny with partly or variably cloudy skies during the CFP Sat night or early Sun. Temperatures thruout this period will run near climo norms. Not all that dramatic with this CFP, not much in the way of CAA but more in the way of wind direction changes and drier air influx ie. lower dewpoints with much of that having to do with the downslope wind action. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 228 PM Thursday...Intrusion of Canadian high pressure to dominate the first half of the extended period, remaining exceptionally dry through Monday, although winds do ease Monday as the surface high centers over the area. Monday morning will be the chilliest portion of this period, with widespread 30s and sub-freezing air over parts of the interior. Tuesday through Thursday look for warming trend, as return wind flow becomes established, with a gradual amplification of a short-wave ridge over the area. The moisture return will bring slight rain chances WED/THU days 6/7. No Arctic air or severe weather signatures noted on the horizon at this time. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 12Z...Mid and high clouds will hug the coast through the afternoon hours as a weak jet max exits the region. Convective debris off of Florida should keep our coast in the clouds. The winds will be brisk out of the northeast, with it feeling more like a January day. Skies should scatter along the coast by early evening. Light winds through the overnight hours. Return flow expected to commence tomorrow afternoon, with westerly winds expected Saturday morning. Extended Outlook...Possible showers along the coast Saturday night, otherwise VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 930 AM Friday...Small craft advisory remains unchanged as pinched gradient between elongated high to the west and front/surface waves to the east is keeping northeast winds around 20 kt this morning. The gradient should start to relax by midday as the front is pushed farther east and the high builds in. Winds will start decreasing around midday, dropping to around 15 kt for the afternoon. Seas, currently 3 to 6 ft, will follow winds, trending below sca thresholds in the mid to late afternoon. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Friday...Overall, this weekend will not be too bad for mariners. Do not expect any pcpn. Will see a cold front move off the mainland Carolinas late Saturday night and well offshore Sun morning. Some clouds associated with the front but no pcpn. The sfc pg will tighten-some ahead of the cold front during Sat with winds becoming westerly around 15 kt g20kt late in the day and evening. Immediately after FROPA, winds will veer to the NW 15 g20 kt then further veer to the North by morning at 15-20 kt. The sfc pg relaxes quickly Sun afternoon and night as the center of high pressure approaches from the west, look for wind speeds to drop to around 10 kt. Significant seas will basically run 2 to 4 ft thruout this period. The seas may bump up to a shortlived 3 to 5 ft after the CFP. After winds become northerly and diminish to around 10 kt during Sun night, a rather limited fetch will exist for seas to build upon under a NW-N wind regime. This will result in seas subsiding to around 2 ft by daybreak Mon. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 228 PM Thursday...Expect a vast improvement in marine conditions as winds ease Monday into Tuesday. As a result, a notable easing trend in sea heights as well, with 3-4 foot seas Sunday, slowly subsiding to 1-2 feet into Tuesday. No TSTMS expected on the 0-20 NM waters this period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...DL

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