Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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037 FXUS62 KILM 241954 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 254 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain well to our south through Wednesday while a cold front approaches from the northwest. This boundary will come through on Thursday bringing seasonably chilly air over the weekend. A secondary cold front will bring a colder Monday before temperatures bounce back to seasonable Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 3 PM Tuesday...Unlimited visibility tonight. Early downslope wind-flow in the evening will counterbalance near perfect long-wave radiation escape, but after midnight as winds taper, most locations across NE SC and SE NC will dip through the 40s. Very late tonight cirrus from the west may impinge the area, but it`s thinness should have little to no bearing on temperature curves overnight. Early evening gusts seaward at the beaches and ICW will too, settle late.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 3 PM Tuesday...Chief weather headline this time period reads `Mild sunshine Wednesday followed by showery conditions Thursday`. Amping SW winds will keep the coast and coastal interior cooler, but look for widespread 70s well inland Wednesday afternoon across NE SC and SE NC. Cirrus in the afternoon could impact temperature trends after mid afternoon. Progressive cold front will sweep across the region Thursday. SW-W low-level wind much of Thursday prior to late day frontal passage will allow for mild temperatures amid the scattered showers. QPF with system 0.05-.020 inches with PWAT and moisture above 700 MB limited.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 3 PM Tuesday...Mid level troughiness to remain a semi permanent feature in the east through at least the weekend. The resulting downsloping westerly flow and cool advection will mean rain-free conditions locally and temperatures just a few degrees shy of climatology. On Monday the trough sharpens as energy bellies through its southern side, then swinging the trough off the coast by Tuesday. Monday thus appears to bring chillier conditions than the rest of the period but recovery will already be underway by Tuesday. If there are some minor rain chances to be had it will be on Monday with the front and upper vort max.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 18Z...Surface low pressure will continue to move away from the area with weak high pressure building in tonight. Expect VFR conditions throughout the period with only gusty winds and brief BKN to OVC convective ceilings this afternoon. Extended outlook...Expect mainly VFR. A CFP slated early Thu may provide brief MVFR conditions from isolated to scattered showers prior to it`s passage. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... | As of 3 PM Tuesday...Buoy platforms and coastal sensor trends suggest Advisory flags may be allowed to drop by or before 6 PM this evening. Easing wind trend will result in coincident wave height decreases as well...to 2-4 feet overnight. Heights will not drop quickly since a noticeable ESE swell propagates ashore. NO TSTMS or restrictions to VSBY expected overnight. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...Brief improvement on marine winds but that`s about it. Amplifying SW winds will precede a progressive cold front, and it looks like by late Wednesday night an Advisory may be needed from then through Thursday even for 25-30 KT wind gusts, highest offshore, better inshore. Seas will peak midday-ish Thursday 5-9 feet, highest outer portion. The dominant wave periods running between 6-8 seconds. Isolated TSTMS may be confined to the western wall of the Gulf Stream. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...NWrly post-frontal flow on Friday will turn to more westerly over the weekend as the upper trough prepares to re- amplify. This will bring a W wind over much of the weekend. Wind speeds may spend most of the period in the 15 to 20 kt range but wave shadowing will be a big factor. Currently WNA guidance is hesitant to bring 5 ft seas into the 20nm zones save for a small portion right out near Frying pan shoals so 3-5ft will be the fcst for AMZ 252 but all others capped at 2-4 ft.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SHK

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