Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 150050 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 750 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonable and fair weather will continue through the weekend, with a dry cold frontal passage expected late Friday. Southerly winds and a warming trend will begin Sunday and last through Tuesday evening ahead of a cold front, with a chance of rain Monday and Tuesday. A cooler and drier air mass will overspread the area mid-week in wake of the cold front. Another cold front will approach the coast next Friday, potentially creating a wet start to next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 8 PM Thursday...Cirrus streaming over the southern 2/3rds of the forecast area are helping keep temperatures slightly elevated in the upper 40s with mid and lower 40s elsewhere. Will be making some minor tweaks to sky cover in the gridded database to account for this, otherwise nothing very significant will change to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion from this afternoon follows: A cold front in the western Carolinas will shift to the coast by sunrise Friday and will be well off the coast by the end of the day Friday. Only middle and upper level moisture with very little forcing is expected during the day Friday, and the the 12 UTC NAM, GFS, and ECMWF are all keeping the area dry through the period. Temperatures are forecast to fall into the lower to middle 30s inland and the upper 30s to near 40 along the coast. Highs on Friday are expected to reach the middle to upper 50s inland to around 60 at the beaches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 314 PM Thursday...Very quiet weather expected through the period as a confluent mid level pattern develops. At the surface high pressure will move from the lower Mississippi Valley to overhead or just to the east by early Sunday morning. No pops and few clouds through the period. Lows both mornings will hover in the lower to middle 30s and highs Saturday will be mostly in the middle 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 314 PM Thursday...Primary caption this period, `Milder with Rain Chances Early Next Week`. Highly amplified troughing trend in the Baja and SW desert will cause expansion northward of the the Bahamian/FL upper ridge. Concurrently, surface high pressure centered offshore of the Carolinas, will help to complete the noteworthy warm-up, circulating milder air in southerly flow. Robust moisture advection will ensue as lower tropospheric winds tap Gulf air. Two time periods encapsulated by this moisture in deep column lift occur Monday, and again late Tuesday. Monday a jet-streak entrance region appears aligned to provide support aloft, with frontal convergence coming into play Tuesday. The period Monday and Tuesday offer rain chances, although a high uncertainty prevails on how much. Drying/cooling Wednesday in wake of the front, but return flow quick on the heels, by THU night ahead of another approaching cold front. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 23Z...High confidence of VFR through 16/00Z. With a low level inversion developing across the region tonight atmosphere will decouple resulting in winds diminishing to variable 0-3 kt. Mid/high level clouds expected along a cold front that will lie just across the inland terminals with mid level jet enhanced by upper level low across the baja region out west setting up a confluent flow pattern with southern jet bringing high level moisture in the way of cirrus clouds across the terminals overnight into Friday. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 8 PM Thursday...Latest obs show westerly winds in the 10 to 15 kt range with seas of right around 2 to 3 ft. This fits in well with current forecast thinking. No changes made with the latest update. Previous discussion from this afternoon follows: The westerly winds continue to weaken and the seas continue to fall. At 140 PM Frying Pan Shoals indicated the winds are from the west at 14 knots and the seas have dropped to 6.2 feet. Close to shore, 10 miles southeast of Wrightsville Beach, seas are down to 2 ft. Therefore, will cancel the Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters between Surf City and Little River Inlet. Overnight the winds will continue to lower below 10 knots before increasing to 15 knots in the afternoon Friday. This increase in winds is along the front. The seas will continuing falling overnight to around 2 to 3 feet but will rebound with the increase in winds ahead of the front and 3 to 4 feet seas are possible late Friday afternoon. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 314 PM Thursday...Winds will be a little brisk early on as surface high pressure will be well off to the southwest. Expect a west to northwest flow of 10-15 knots. As the high moves to the east and basically overhead winds will essentially become light and variable. Significant seas will be a little worked up early with a range of 3-5 feet. With the extended period of lighter winds seas will end the period at 1-2 feet. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 314 PM Thursday...Lovely marine conditions Sunday, will gradually worsen into early next week, as a cold front approaches, then crosses the coast late Tuesday night or early on Wednesday. Small Craft Conditions appear to be approached sometime on Tuesday, by evening, in blustery SW wind of 20 KT and gusty, and 5 foot seas offshore. Conditions inshore will not be as bad, due to cooler waters. Rain showers may reduce visibilities at times Monday through Tuesday night.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...REK/SHK LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...MAC MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK/DRH

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