Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 151416 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1000 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL RETURN NORTH TODAY...ONLY TO BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE WEEK...PROVIDING FALL- LIKE WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1000 AM MONDAY...12Z RAOBS IN FROM BOTH MHX AND CHS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS THICK ENOUGH THAT ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE GOING TO BE HARD TO COME BY. THE TEMPTATION TO NUDGE HIGH TEMP FORECAST DOWN A FEW DEGREES IS GROWING-MOST MODEL GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM YESTERDAY. WILL MAKE DECISION BY NEXT UPDATE. OUR CURRENT POP FORECAST IS QUITE LOW AND THEREFORE HARD TO ARGUE WITH BUT MAY TWEAK DOWN A BIT ESP OVER NRN ZONES...TO OPEN UP A SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED GRADIENT FAVORING NRN ZONES. PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN PRETTY SCANT IN QPF FORECAST ONCE THIS CURRENT BATCH MOVES OFF THE GRAND STRAND. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHARPEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AS THE LINGERING MOISTURE WARRANTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MORE OF A SHOWERY SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NORTH WITH THUNDERSTORMS THE PRIMARY MODE FOR SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE WARM SIDE FOR TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 80S DROPPING A GOOD FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOSTLY ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN INITIALLY WITH MORE AMPLITUDE DEVELOPING LATE. THE WESTERLIES WILL SHOW CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT DRY AND COOL FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH WEAKENS AS MID LEVEL SUPPORT WANES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE OR JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY MODERATING EVER SO SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE ONLY POPS ARE RELEGATED TO JUST OFFSHORE WHERE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WARRANTS. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 12Z...TIME HEIGHT CONFIRMS OBSERVATIONS WITH A MVFR CEILING AT MOST SPOTS. WITH WEDGE STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE...LOOK FOR CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. A PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN MAY AFFECT MYR IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT THATS ABOUT IT. NORTHEAST FLOW IS FORECAST THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY REPLACED WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND ALONG THE COAST...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN THAT REGARD. TONIGHT...CONTINUED CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER AIR WEDGES INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH FRI. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 AM MONDAY...PRETTY QUIET OUT OVER THE WATERS. NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SUMS THINGS UP NICELY: AS OF 625 AM MONDAY...MODEL SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORT A WEAK WEDGE THIS MORNING THAT WEAKENS AND GIVES WAY TO THE APPROACHING AND DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTH. LOOKING AT A SLOW VEERING TREND IN THE WIND FIELD...FROM NE THIS MORNING TO EAST MIDDAY...AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOR TONIGHT VARIABLE WINDS INITIALLY WILL BECOME WESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. WIND SPEEDS INITIALLY 10 TO 15 KT DUE TO THE WEDGE...WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND 10 KT AS THE SFC PG WEAKENS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH AN AVERAGE PERIOD OF 4 TO 5 SECONDS. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. IF ANYTHING...WINDS WILL HAVE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS. THE WINDS ACQUIRE MORE DEFINITION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT AN INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS INCREASE FROM 2-3 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AND POSSIBLY SOME SIX FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY A NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE AS HIGH PRESSURE...ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STRENGTHENS. SPEEDS WILL BE IN A 15-20 KNOT RANGE CLOSER TO AND POSSIBLY JUST EXCEEDING THE HIGHER END BY FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL HOVER AT OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...3-5 FEET. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MBB/DCH SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...43

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