Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS62 KILM 182211
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
513 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017
An upper level disturbance may bring some light showers
tonight. Warmer temperatures during the weekend should last
through next week. Dry weather during the first part of next
week may be interrupted as low pressure passes to the south
spreading some clouds and possible showers into the Carolinas
during the second half of next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...Convection lifting across GA and western SC
this afternoon will result in only minimal PoP for the forecast
area through late afternoon and this evening. Any that holds
together would likely only impact the southern and western-most
portions of the CWA, resulting in QPF on the order of a couple of
hundredths at most. The mid-level shortwave driving the
precipitation will shift east from western TN/KY to the Carolinas
overnight, and the most prominent vorticity center will ride across
southern GA along the base of this trough. The associated weak
surface front will bring a wind shift after midnight, but little
chance for significant rain for us because the front and mid-level
dynamics won`t link up until the system is well off the coast.
Overnight lows will remain well above normal, bottoming out around
50 inland to low/mid 50s along the coast.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...Time-height cross sections indicate rapid
drying early Sunday as winds throughout the column shift quickly to
the northwest. The mid-levels will remain quite dry through the
period as a mid/upper ridge transitions from the central plains
states on Sunday to the eastern seaboard by late Monday night.
Mainly clear skies Sunday will start to become filtered by cirrus on
Monday and through Monday night, but the period will remain precip-
There will be some cool advection in the 1000-850 mb layer Sunday
behind the front as low pressure strengthens offshore, and this
should result in max temps a few degrees cooler than Saturday. As
heights rise on Monday, temperatures should bounce a few degrees,
though light onshore flow should keep them in check along the
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...Medium range guidance continues to point to
a very warm and mostly dry scenario for the eastern Carolinas
through the period. Overall the mid level pattern is one of west
to east with the exception of a closed mid level system
trudging very far south through the Gulf of Mexico and out in
the Caribbean. This system will have little to no affect on the
region. Regarding surface features, high pressure to the north
will be the dominant player with a weak coastal trough
developing Wednesday and hanging around through Friday. This
prevents the forecast from being totally dry with low chance to
slight chance pops for these days. A more significant system
approaches from the west next weekend. For temperatures its
mostly highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s beyond a slightly
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 00Z...An upper vort will try to rotate through the area,
however the HRRR model keeps dissipating the precip as it tries to
enter the CWA. Will keep the current VCSH in place with only a
sprinkle possible. A 5k ceiling is a bit pessimistic, but we should
see ceilings lower after midnight. Some MVFR fog is possible after
08Z, confidence mod/low. Sunday, northwest flow on the backside of
the surface low pressure, scattered skies.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR conditions are expected. Chance of
showers Wednesday and Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...Southwest flow will continue across the waters
until after midnight, resulting from surface high pressure off the
east coast of FL. A wind shift will accompany a weak frontal passage
after midnight, but wind speeds are expected to remain generally
less than 15 knots, with seas 2-3 feet. Scattered convection will
also be possible, mainly after midnight associated with the frontal
SHORT TERM/SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...Offshore flow Sunday will veer to the
northeast Monday as a large area of high pressure extends southward
across the Mid-Atlantic. Although low pressure will develop well off
the SC coast Sunday, it will progress eastward rather quickly and
the gradient winds across the coastal waters are expected to remain
15 knots or less through the period.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...Expect northeast winds Tuesday on the order of
10-15 knots. By Wednesday the gradient weakens considerably with
more of an east to southeast flow developing. The sea breeze will
become more of a factor both Wednesday and Thursday. The weak
gradient will only produce wind speeds of ten knots or less.
Significant seas quite unimpressive through the period as would be
expected with the light wind fields with 2-4 feet Tuesday followed
by 1-3 feet Wednesday and Thursday.