Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 191528 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1028 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD AND DRY DAY TODAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL MODERATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY WITH A WARM AND MOIST RETURN FLOW BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...IT SOUNDS LIKE A MISNOMER TO LABEL AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST...BUT OTHER THAN SOME SUBTLE MODIFICATION...THAT IS EXACTLY THE AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS MORNING. LOWS ACROSS THE AREA DROPPED TO RECORD LEVELS...WITH WIDESPREAD TEENS AND LOW 20S. EVEN JOHNNY MERCER PIER DIPPED TO FREEZING. THIS WAS THE COLDEST MORNING LOCALLY SINCE THE END OF JANUARY...WINTER HAS CLEARLY MADE AN EARLY ARRIVAL TO THE CAROLINAS. A VERY COLD START WILL LEAD TO A COLD DAY...BUT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE BETTER OUTSIDE THAN THE MID-TO-UPR 40S HIGH TEMPS WOULD OTHERWISE SUGGEST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP LOCALLY. THIS WILL START SOME WEAK WAA ON S/SW FLOW...WHICH COMBINED WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK VORT IMPULSE MOVING OVERHEAD...WILL LIMIT COOLING TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S AT THE COAST...BUT THESE WILL BE A SOLID 4-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN FROM GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS RIDGE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH LEAVING A FLATTER MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURS INTO FRI. AT LOWER LEVELS...ONE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET SUPPRESSED FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKEN AS ANOTHER STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BASICALLY BE MORE WESTERLY OVER THE TOP OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH INITIALLY BUT WILL VEER AROUND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST PUSHING A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTH...LEAVING A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTH BEHIND IT. OVERALL VERY SUBTLE CHANGES TO AN OVERALL DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SLIGHT RISE IN MOISTURE AND WAA ON THURS PUSH DEWPOINT TEMPS UP A BIT FOLLOWED BY A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER PUSH ON FRI. THE DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO MODIFY TEMPS ON THURS REACHING UP CLOSER TO 60. SLIGHTLY GREATER WESTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SOME PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THURS NIGHT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. THIS WARMER START WILL GIVE TEMPS A HEAD START BUT WEAK CAA WILL SLIGHTLY OFFSET THE RISE...WITH MOST HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S. SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AND NO PCP THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPS RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE A GREATER ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AIR MASS MODIFYING. WAA WILL KICK IN WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST BY SUNDAY. WILL SEE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT AS WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AREA ON SUNDAY. GFS SHOWING PCP WATER VALUES UP CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY SUN AFTN IN 50 KT LLJ. EXPECT INCREASING CHC OF PCP THROUGH SUNDAY INTO EARLY MON. WILL REMAIN IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CHC OF SHWRS UNTIL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUES. DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH MAY BE SLOWER TO CLEAR THE COAST LEAVING A CONTINUED MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT ON TUES BUT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK LEAVING COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH TUES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMP IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BUT TEMPS WILL WARM THEREAFTER IN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS. EXPECT HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL NEAR 70 ON SUN AND INTO THE MID 70S BY MONDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL ON TUES. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TODAY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 KT SO WILL INDICATE VRB06 IN TAFS. WIND DIRECTIONS COULD FAVOR A S-SW DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS S. ONLY SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED AND THAT WILL BE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY...ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS MORE LIKELY SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS MY 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...SHIFTING WINDS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. FORTUNATELY...SPEEDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION. WIND SPEEDS THIS MORNING WILL BE HIGHEST...WITH 10-15 KTS FROM THE NORTH COMMON...EASING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS...AND THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EVE. LATE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE...SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND RISE BACK ABOVE 10 KTS TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...RISING TO 3 FT ONLY VERY LATE AS THE SW WINDS INCREASE. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS ON WED WILL GET SUPPRESSED FARTHER SOUTH AS IT WEAKENS INTO WED NIGHT. THEREFORE LIGHT WINDS TO START OF WED WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY INCREASING THROUGH THURS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE UPPER MID WEST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A WEAK BOUNDARY THROUGH BY EARLY FRI WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. AS THE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH BUT REMAINS NORTH OF AREA WATERS...WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NE AND EVENTUALLY E-NE BY SAT. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT MAY SEE WINDS A BIT STRONGER THURS AFTN MAINLY OUTER WATERS. EXPECT HIGHEST SEAS...UP TO 3-4 FEET...AWAY FROM SHORE THURSDAY IN THE STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS THURS. OTHERWISE SEAS WILL BASICALLY BE 3 FT OR LESS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE WITH CENTER TO OUR NORTH...WINDS WILL BECOME ON SHORE AND EASTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO THE E-SE BY SUNDAY AS HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFF SHORE. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST AND MOVING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO S UP 15-25 KNOTS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SEAS WILL RISE RAPIDLY IN SOUTHERLY PUSH FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY SATURDAY UP TO 3 TO 5 FT BY SUN MORNING INCREASING FURTHER POSSIBLY WELL ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUN INTO MONDAY. WNA SHOWS SEAS UP TO 7 TO 9 FT PEAKING SUN EVENING. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MRR

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