Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 021949 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 248 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will be reinforced from the northwest and as a result the weather will remain dry through Saturday. The high will move offshore Sunday night. A strong and complex storm system will likely bring soaking rains to the area early next week. The passage of a cold front late next week will usher in the coldest and driest air of the season thus far. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 215 PM Friday...Dry, zonal flow across the Eastern United States will continue through the remainder of the afternoon and tonight. The bulk of the column will remain dry however some cirrus will potentially overspread the area overnight as a storm system across the Southwest United States begins to direct some moisture toward the Carolinas. Scattered cirrus and just enough wind will likely hinder optimal radiational cooling tonight, nevertheless the typical cool spots may dip into the lower to mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM Friday...The atmosphere will be in transition during the short term period as high pressure loses its influence to a developing coastal front and approaching southern stream system. As a result, rain chances will be on the rise, especially by Sunday night given the proximity of the coastal front and increasing isentropic lift. Followed a blend of MAV/MET numbers for the highs/lows each period, however expect non-diurnal temp trends along the coast Sunday night with the coastal front moving onshore late. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 3 PM Friday...Very active weather slated for the long term with some minor uncertainties yet to be hashed out. Monday`s weather will be quite unsettled with high pressure to our north being overrun by moderately strong warm advection. Rainfall should initially be light to moderate as there is little deep layer forcing and all of the resulting upglide will be confined to the lower levels. Rainfall rates increase heading into Tuesday as height fall and PVA deepen the ascent. The interplay between two surface lows may dictate temperatures and their positions are not agreed upon superbly between various guidance. Drying should be rapid Tuesday night as this conglomerate system lifts northward. Wednesday and Thursday will feature a series of moisture-deprived cool fronts moving through from the northwest. The latest front Thursday night will usher in some true Arctic air.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 12Z...VFR conditions are expected for the entire forecast period as high pressure ridges into the area from the southern Great Lakes. Winds will be rather light generally less than 10 knots except for KMYR. Directions will generally be north with a west to northwesterly flow after 20 utc. Overnight winds will be light with a northerly wind of 6 to 10 knots from the north on Saturday morning. Models are indicating the only clouds with expected are cirrus clouds moving in late Saturday morning at or above 20,000 feet Extended outlook...Clouds and precipitation expected to return at the end of the period with the potential for MVFR/IFR conditions late Sunday through Wednesday. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 215 PM Friday...Surface high pressure will continue to build across the waters from the W-NW through tonight. A minor surge will build south across the waters generally after midnight. The increase in northerly winds as a result of the surge will allow for a period of Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions primarily for the NC waters which will carry into the short term period. Along the Cape Fear waters seas are expected to build to 4-5 ft, especially away from the inshore waters given the orientation of the fetch. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM Friday...Northerly winds will diminish during Saturday afternoon as high pressure builds eastward. The high will slowly progress off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Sunday night allowing the flow to veer to a northeasterly direction beginning late Saturday night. A coastal front will become better established by Sunday night and as it lifts northward the wind is expected to sharply veer to a southerly direction late in the period. Seas of 4 to 5 ft Saturday morning off the Cape Fear coast will subside during the afternoon. Seas should remain below 3 feet during Sunday then begin to build again Sunday night. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As OF 3 PM Friday... Winds will be light on Monday but the wind direction is uncertain. High pressure to our north will be eroding along the coast as a coastal warm front develops ahead of low pressure developing over the Gulf. By Tuesday the winds should swing to the south and ramp up to where wind or seas will necessitate Small Craft Advisory. Wind turns offshore by Wednesday and decreases as dual-barreled high pressure lifts out to the north.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...HAWKINS

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