Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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820 FXUS62 KILM 270511 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1211 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Chilly temperatures overnight will quickly rebound early this week as a warm front lifts north, leading to near record high temperatures by mid-week. A cold front will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday morning, followed by a return to seasonable temperatures late week. Even cooler temperatures are expected by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1211 AM Monday...Still clear, but do expect thin cirrus to work its way into the area from the west overnight. Dewpoints have recovered greatly since this afternoon and will provide a floor to keep most locations from dropping to or just below freezing. The center of high pressure was positioned virtually overhead this eve and will drift further E and offshore through sunrise. Mainly clear and calm conditions will allow for a wide range in low temps. Where radiational cooling is maximized, lows will be in the lower 30s and as cool as freezing or just below in the usual coldest spots. Elsewhere, lows will be in the mid and upper 30s. The beaches should be warmest, lows here in the lower to mid 40s. Soil temps in the mid 50s to lower 60s will make it very difficult for frost to develop even as pockets of air temps between 30-33 develop inland at daybreak. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Longwave flow aloft this period will be highlighted by fast mainly zonal flow. Some hints of a low amplitude s/w ridging extending north from Florida by Tuesday into Wed. During the same time, a nearly full latitude low amplitude s/w trof progresses eastward from the west coast of the U.S. to the mid- section of the U.S. by Wed. No major pcpn events this period. Only pcpn possible will be for Mon night into Tue as a sfc trof just off the Carolina Coasts swings onshore within southeast low level flow and lifts inland and northward early Tuesday similar to a warm frontal passage. Forcing is weak with this sfc feature but we do have some instability that becomes available. Will indicate pcpn chances on the lower side of guidance late Mon night thru Tue with the threat for isolated Tstorms. The 2 day period will be highlighted by a rebound in temps when compared to Sun, with back to above normal on Mon...and well above normal on Tue. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Near record warmth mid-week will be quickly shut off by a strong cold front Thursday morning. Strong WAA ahead of this front Wednesday will drive temps into the 80s away from the coast, and while showers/tstms are possible Wednesday, coverage will only be isolated. More widespread showers and tstms are expected with the cold frontal passage which is progged for very early Thursday morning. By Thursday aftn the region will dry out, and temps will fall back to more typical early-March values for Thu and Fri before a secondary surge of cold air floods into the region Friday night. This will bring even colder into the Carolinas for Saturday with a brief return to winter-temperatures expected before a warming trend begins again on Sunday. && .AVIATION /0510Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 06Z...VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period though cigs will be lowering to about 5 KFT after 00z. Light to calm winds will prevail til daybreak, after which winds will become easterly around 10 KT before turning southeasterly during the afternoon. Winds will remain SE after 00z but diminish to less than 5 KT. Extended Outlook...VFR. VSBY and ceilings lowered to MVFR/IFR with pcp late tonight into Tues and again with SHWRs on Wed. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1211 AM Monday...High pressure will be virtually overhead overnight. This will keep a slack gradient across the waters. The wind direction will be variable for most of the night. As the center of high pressure edges offshore, the wind direction will settle on E. Wind speeds will be 10 kt or less. Seas will be 1 to 2 ft with seas building to 3 ft across the outer waters Mon morning. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Sunday...No cautionary or advisory thresholds for winds and/or seas this period. Thruout this 2 day period will see a slow increase in wind speeds as the sfc pg slowly tightens...and a slow veering to wind directions will occur. Center of sfc high moves off the NC Coast and offshore during Mon. A sfc pg will be relaxed at the start of this period with E winds less than 10 kt to start the day on Mon. A inverted sfc trof develops just off the coast of the Carolinas by midday Mon and begins to pivot toward the Carolina coasts. Models indicate the southern portions of the sfc trof to pinwheel around to the Carolina Coasts Mon night and onshore lifting northward as a whole during early Tue. Winds will veer to the southeast Mon night and southeast to south during Tue. Speeds will begin increasing especially after the passage of the sfc trof when the sfc pg will begin it`s tightening phase. Significant seas at 1 to 3 ft at the start of this period will build to 2 to 4 ft during Tue with 5 footers possible by Tue night. Pcpn threat will occur mainly Mon night thru Tue night with coverage isolated to widely scattered. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Gusty SW winds of 15-20 kt will persist across the waters Wednesday at the gradient pinches ahead of a cold front. This front will cross offshore very early on Thursday, accompanied by a wind shift to the NW followed by a slow decrease in speeds to 10-15 kt by Friday morning. During Friday, a secondary surge will cross the waters, causing a subtle uptick in speeds as well as veering to the N/NE late in the period. Wave heights will steadily increase on Wednesday ahead of the front, reaching SCA thresholds of 4-7 ft late Wednesday into Thursday. Seas will fall back quickly to 2-4 ft behind the front thanks to the offshore winds, but will slowly ramp up again late in the period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD/8 SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...RAN/8

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