Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 011924 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 324 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND DURING ALL OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE COLD/QUASI STATIONARY FRONT STILL BISECTING THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 IN THE NORTHWEST REACHES WHILE THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA REMAINS IN THE LOWER 70S. STILL EXPECTING SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE BEING MET AS WE SPEAK. THERE IS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA THAT SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD PUT A LID ON POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SANS OUTER COASTAL WATERS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT WINDS...LONGER NIGHTS...DAYS ARE ALMOST 40 MINUTES SHORTER NOW...AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV NUMBERS SHOULD FIT WELL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN AREA SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN PLACE ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A BROAD...FLAT-ISH H5 TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CONUS. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING PLENTIFUL DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH WILL LIMIT EXTENT OF CONVECTION DESPITE PRESENCE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AIR ALOFT IS DRIEST INLAND...SO WILL SHOW A DECREASING GRADIENT IN POPS NW FROM THE COAST FOR BOTH DAYS. DUE TO OVERALL LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT...WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT LOW CHANCE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR BOTH DAYS...WITH FAR INLAND AREAS BEING POSSIBLY TOO DRY TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH AROUND A 100 OR SO BOTH AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCEEDED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY... WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY WILL BE POOLED UP ALONG THE COAST. MINOR RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED THERE DURING AN OTHERWISE HOT AFTERNOON PROVIDED IN PART BY A VERY WEAK RIDGE ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN SLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS WEAK THOUGH THE SENSE OF RIDGING WEAKENS. SO WILL KEEP POPS MINIMIZED BUT SHOW THEM AREA- WIDE. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP TO SCATTERED ON THURSDAY AS SOME WEAKLY CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND A SURFACE PIEDMONT TROUGH TAKES SHAPE. ANOTHER LITTLE PIECE OF ENERGY WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY BE ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY. ON SATURDAY NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE CONTINUED DISTURBANCES IMPINGING UPON THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BOTH SEE RATHER HOT AFTERNOONS WHEREAS THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT BACK TOWARDS CLIMO. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 18Z...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS VFR WITH CLEAR SCATTERED SKIES AT KFLO/KLBT...WHILE SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS HAVE OCCURRED AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS ARE LIGHT NE AT KFLO/KLBT AND LIGHT SE-S AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM KCRE S TO KMYR TO S OF KFLO. A BIT OF DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NW SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW. VFR THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME TEMPO BR POSSIBLE MAINLY COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. VFR WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONT IS WELL INLAND AND EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AROUND TEN KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WITH THE MODEST WIND WAVES SUPPORTED BY A TEN SECOND SWELL COMPONENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A STALLED FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EXTENDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK INTO A SWLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WEST ACROSS THE WATERS. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WIND AND SEAS RELAX ON TUESDAY AS PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS PUSHES THE TIGHTER GRADIENT CAUSED BY THE BERMUDA HIGH FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THOUGH SOME SWELL ENERGY MAY REMAIN WE SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THEREAFTER IT LOOKS LIKE PRETTY STANDARD FARE FOR JULY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS 1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME THIS LUNAR CYCLE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...REK NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR MARINE...REK/MBB/SHK TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...99

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