Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 021436 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 936 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will be reinforced from the northwest through Saturday. It will remain dry through Saturday. The high will move offshore sunday night. A strong and complex storm system will likely bring soaking rains to the area early next week. The passage of a cold front late next week will usher in the coldest and driest air of the season thus far. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 AM Friday...Weak confluent flow aloft across the Eastern United States and dry surface high pressure will maintain benign weather conditions across the forecast area. Other than some scattered cirrus, clear skies will persist. Max temp schemes from the 1200 UTC soundings imply highs around 60 to the lower 60s today most locations. High pressure will continue to ridge across the area through tonight. While decoupling is expected a light wind overnight with some cirrus would be enough to prevent optimal radiational cooling conditions. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Friday...Chilly high pressure will build across the Carolinas, reinforcing the chilly airmass Saturday. The high will then push off the coast Sunday night. An energetic and wet southern stream system will be organizing along the Gulf Coast late in the period. A warm front is expected to develop, extending from an area of low pressure along the western Gulf Coast and then up along the southeast coast Sunday night. Warmer air aloft will override the chilly air at the surface and we will begin to see isentropic upglide increase Sunday and then moreso Sunday night. Sunshine will begin to fade behind increasing higher clouds later Saturday and Saturday night. Clouds will lower and thicken Sunday with cloudy skies by Sunday night. Rain could break out as early as Sunday afternoon across portions of the area with rain expected throughout Sunday night. A good soaking is possible early next week. High temperatures will be below normal through the period, mainly in the mid and upper 50s. Low temperatures will be in the upper 30s Saturday night with some locations as cool as the mid 30s. Lows Sunday night will moderate to the 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 340 AM Friday...To kick off the first full week of December, anticipate showers across the area Monday morning into Tuesday as a low pressure system continues to makes its way from Texas towards the OH valley through the early part of the week. Differences persist between the ECMWF and GFS, both temporally and spatially, and thus confidence remains low attm on the total rainfall expected as well as the duration of the rainfall across the area. For now have kept with the GFS trend, keeping rainfall across the area Tuesday and tapering off Tuesday night. As the system moves out of the picture, focus turns towards the west as another trough develops by midweek. Again, differences arise between the ECMWF and GFS for this system and so the question becomes will there be enough moisture for another round of precipitation with the cold front towards the end of the week, or will this feature become moisture starved by the time it reaches southeastern NC and northeastern SC. For now will carry low POPs for Thursday afternoon. Anticipate high temperatures in the low to mid 60`s through Thursday with overnight low`s in the 40`s. Overnight Thursday, colder air will quickly infiltrate in behind the cold front with overnight lows expected to dip into the 30`s. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 12Z...High pressure will continue to build into the region through the forecast period. Predominately northerly winds are expected today, only moderately gusty around late morning. Some jet cirrus is possible, however most of the region will see clear skies. Light and variable winds tonight. Extended outlook...Clouds and precipitation expected to return at the end of the period with the potential for MVFR/IFR conditions late Sunday through Tuesday. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 AM Friday...High pressure will prevail across the waters today and tonight. Initial northerly winds will back to a northwest direction during the day. A minor surge will build southward across the waters overnight allowing winds to increase again late. Choppy/steep 3 to 5 ft seas this morning will improve some this afternoon, then a return of the steep conditions. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Friday...Surface high pressure will be reinforced by a stronger area of high pressure building into the area from the NW tonight and Saturday. This high will persist across the area into Sunday. This high will then push offshore Sunday night. Weather conditions are expected to deteriorate Sunday night and Monday as an energetic southern stream system begins to organize along the Gulf Coast. A developing warm front is expected to extend eastward from low pressure along the Gulf coast and then up along the southeast coast. N winds Sat will be on the order of 15 to 20 kt with winds diminishing during the afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes due to the center of the high gaining proximity. The wind direction will remain from the N Saturday night and then veer to the NE on Sunday. Where the warm front is able to push through, winds will continue to veer Sunday night, making it all the way around to the S by Monday morning. Wind speeds will generally be 10 to 15 kt Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. Seas will be 3 to 4 ft Saturday with some 5 ft seas possible across the outermost northern waters. Seas will be 2 to 3 ft for the remainder of the period. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 340 AM Friday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible Tuesday and Tuesday night. Expect unsettled weather Monday into Tuesday with showers moving across the waters. Northeast winds 10 to 15 kts will continue on Monday, veering to the southeast and then southwest through Tuesday and Tuesday night as a boundary associated with a low pressure system well inland lifts north across the waters. Seas 2 to 4 ft on Monday will increase to 4 to 6 ft in the outer waters on Tuesday and Tuesday night. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...SGL AVIATION...dl

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