Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 021528 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1028 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... TODAY WILL BRING A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A DRAMATIC WARM UP ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EVEN COLDER AIR MASS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A VERY GRADUAL WARM UP AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...A DAMP EARLY-MARCH MORNING ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND FOG PERSISTING EVEN BEYOND 10 AM. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY DROPPING SE FROM THE MTNS OF NC. THIS FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTN...BUT WILL BECOME MORE ALIGNED E-TO-W WITH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. THUS...EXPECT THE FRONT TO SAG SLIGHTLY MORE SLOWLY THAN THE GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING...BUT SHOULD STILL CROSS THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE CWA BY THIS EVE. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS...SLOW WARMING BENEATH A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION (975MB TEMPS TO +15C ON THE 12Z LOCAL U/A SOUNDINGS) WILL KEEP THE STRATUS AND FOG LOCKED INTO THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING. VERY DRY ABOVE THIS INVERSION COMBINED WITH INCREASING MARCH SUN ANGLE...SHOULD BREAK THE STRATUS AND FOG RAPIDLY THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD AT LEAST SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TODAY. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS UP TOWARDS 60 IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH SOME MID 60S EXPECTED NEAR THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THIS WARMTH AND SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...LOW-LEVEL SATURATION RETURNS...BUT FORCING IS WEAK ENOUGH THAT SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ATOP THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL CAUSE EVEN FURTHER COLUMN SATURATION AND INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THIS PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY. HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED POP GRIDS FOR TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD THAT LOWERING OF POP WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH 7AM TUESDAY...POSSIBLY REMAINING BELOW MENTIONABLE UNTIL VERY LATE. MINS TONIGHT ARE A BIT TRICKY AS COLD ADVECTION LAGS WELL BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT...AND WILL ONLY BEGIN IN EARNEST LATE. THIS WILL KEEP MINS ELEVATED DESPITE COLD ADVECTION...AND THUS MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 30S IN THE NORTH...TO THE MID 40S WELL SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...ALL TOO FAMILIAR COOL AIR WEDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE ON TUESDAY. BETWEEN STRONGER OVERRUNNING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE LIFT AREA-WIDE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING AN OTHERWISE CLOUDY AND CHILLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY CHANGE AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN RATHER QUICKLY LATER ON...PROBABLY NOT AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED THOUGH ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE POSSIBLY RE-ENFORCING RAINFALL. THIS TIMING WILL HAVE SOME BEARING ON TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS. A SLIGHT PERSISTENCE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR A SMALL TEMP DROP BUT AN EARLIER BREAKDOWN WILL MEAN TUESDAY NIGHT `LOWS` WILL NEARLY MATCH TUESDAY HIGHS AS TEMPS WILL FLATLINE EARLY AND THEN SLOWLY RISE. THIS IS BEST REPRESENTED BY THE GFS OVER THE WRF AND MATCHES PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING QUITE WELL. SINCE THE RAIN LIKELY SHUTS OFF BY EVENING AND A HEALTHY LLJ FORMS SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THIS. WEDNESDAY PROBABLY REMAINS QUITE CLOUDY BUT WILL BE OUR ONE WELCOME DAY OF WARMTH NOT ONLY FOLLOWING A LONG STRETCH OF COOL WEATHER BUT IT WILL ALSO BE FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF COLD CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN STRENGTH OF THE LLJ WILL BE OFFSET BY A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT CONTAINING A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. IN THIS SSWRLY FLOW THERE WILL BE QUITE A TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS BRUNSWICK CTY DUE TO THE COLD SSTS. THIS MARINE AIR WILL ALSO TEMPER THE HIGHS ACROSS CAPE FEAR COUNTIES WHERE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WILL BE COMMON (MUCH COOLER BEACHES) WHILE INLAND LOCALES SOAR WELL INTO THE 70S. JUST AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN VERY MILD AND AT THE VERY TAIL END MAY FEATURE SOME RAIN CHANCES ASSOC WITH THE BOUNDARY ESP OVER WESTERN ZONES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...AND JUST LIKE THAT OUR TASTE OF SPRING IS GONE ON THURSDAY. VERY BROAD NEUTRALLY TILTED EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH TO GRAB AIR FROM LOCATIONS WELL UP INTO CANADA AND DRIVE IT INTO THE CAROLINAS. THURSDAY HIGHS COULD VERY WELL END UP SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ESPECIALLY IF LOW CLOUDS BORN OF UNDERCUTTING HIGH ARE PREVALENT ENOUGH. FROM THERE THE CAA MAY CONTINUE EVEN AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT. SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT NEAR RECORD LOW HIGHS FOR MARCH 6 (ILM: 38, 1901). NOT QUITE CONVINCED OF THAT MAGNITUDE OF COLD ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE EARLY MARCH SUN WILL BE HAVING A SAY IN THE MATTER. HOWEVER ANOTHER DAY OF 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE SHORTAGES FROM CLIMO SEEM ON TAP FOR A SECOND DAY. BITTER CHILL EXTENDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY HINGING UPON CLEARING/DECOUPLING POTENTIAL...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT SOME LOWS IN THE TEENS. SATURDAY WILL BRING RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES BUT ONLY IN A RELATIVE SENSE AS HIGHS LIKELY STILL END UP 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS QUITE FLAT. AN APPROACHING CLIPPER ON OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD LEAD TO ENOUGH WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION FOR NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS WHILE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES BOTH INCREASE SLIGHTLY. MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS LOOKS A LITTLE FAST IN SHOWING THIS AS SOON AS SATURDAY. WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT FOR FOR NOW HOLD RAIN CHANCES OFF TIL SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 12Z...LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH DENSE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR OR BETTER BY LATE MORNING OR NOON. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD EVENING. THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INTRODUCE PRECIP LATE TONIGHT SO HAVE ADDED SHOWER IN THE VICINITY. . EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR TUE MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/SHOWERS TUE AFTN AND EVENING. SHOWERS LATE WED. RAIN/IFR THUR. VFR DEVELOPING FRI. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS WELL ON TRACK THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE HAD TO EXTENDED THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. LOCAL CAMS SUGGEST AT LEAST AREAS OF DENSE FOG...LESS THAN 1 NM...REMAINING MOSTLY FROM BRUNSWICK COUNTY SOUTHWARD. ADDITIONALLY...CHS PILOT BOATS REPORTING WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 1 NM VISIBILITY THERE...AND SO THE ADVISORY NEEDED TO BE EXTENDED. HOPEFULLY VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE ENOUGH BY THIS AFTN THAT ANOTHER LOCAL EXTENSION WILL NOT BE NEEDED...BUT ONLY A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY IS ANTICIPATED INTO THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FORECAST IS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS DRIFTING OFFSHORE WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT AND DROP SOUTH THIS AFTN...AND THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT. THE TOTAL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE IS PRETTY WEAK...SO HAVE KEPT WINDS AND SEAS AS INHERITED TONIGHT...WHICH SUGGESTS CONDITIONS JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA. WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH THE MORNING GUIDANCE HOWEVER AS A SHORT SCA COULD VERY WELL BE REQUIRED. ATTM HOWEVER...EXPECT WINDS TURNING FROM THE WSW THIS MORNING TO THE NW THIS EVE...BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE NE LATE TO AROUND 20 KTS. SEAS WILL FOLLOW...RISING FROM THE CURRENT 2-4 FT TO 4-5 FT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY BRINGS AN OVERLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGHINESS IMPINGING UPON THE WATERS FROM THE EAST. THE RESULTING PINCHED GRADIENT MAY NECESSITATE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL. BOTH FEATURES WASH OUT TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A WARM SEASON-LIKE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL FLOOD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND A SEA FOG THREAT WILL DEVELOP. ENHANCING THE HAZARD TO MARINERS LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...NOT A GOOD STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR MARINERS. STRONG COLD FRONT RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BLOW OUT THE SEA FOG AS COLD AIR POURS IN ON A NORTHWEST WIND. THIS SURGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH THOUGH TO BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS. AS THE HIGH MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO FRIDAY WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND MAY DROP OFF A BIT LATE IN THE PERIOD. SCA FLAGS STILL FLYING FOR MOST OF FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SEAS SETTLE FOLLOWING THE ABATING TREND OF THE WINDS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...TRA/DRH MARINE...TRA/JDW

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