Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 111959 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 259 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... DA WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH A WINTRY MIX LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. A WARMUP WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NORMAL VALUES BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FLOW AT THE MID LEVELS REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST VERY LATE. THE GFS IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS SLOWER SOLUTION AS IS THE NAM WITH THE FASTER VERSION. OVERALL THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN POP FREE WITH ONLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATE LEADING TO OVERCAST SKIES. GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER AND EVEN MID 30S EXTREME SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A WINTRY WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY ICE AS WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINTRY WEATHER...THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE STRUGGLES TO REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY MOIST. THAT BEING SAID...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER AND WETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW AND ICE PELLETS ARE EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX IN...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON. RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER TYPE BY AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT ACROSS AN AREA FROM BENNETTSVILLE...DILLON AND LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN...WHITEVILLE AND WATHA...WHERE WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...COULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS GROUND TEMPS STRUGGLE TO RISE SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING. A RESPECTABLE WARM NOSE DOES DEVELOP...AROUND 6 DEG C. MODELS DO SHOW A PRONOUNCED INVERSION THAT BECOMES SATURATED IN THE MORNING AND REMAINS SO INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM ABOUT 1K TO 3K FT. BELOW THAT LAYER...THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER STUBBORNLY TRIES TO HOLD ONTO THE DRY AIR. MOISTURE DOES EXTEND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE DOES NOT PERSIST AND DRYING DOES ALREADY BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE FRI AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SKIRTING TO OUR S TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. AS THE LOW REACHES THE ATLANTIC...IT WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP MORE MOISTURE AND WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE ROBUST AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE LOW LATER FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME...THE LOW WILL BE ACCELERATING TO THE ENE AND AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THUS...WE ARE EXPECTING A LOW QPF EVENT. TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND AS LOW AS THE MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND LOW DEWPOINTS...WET BULB TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THESE VALUES. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD HELP LIGHT PRECIPITATION BREAK OUT EARLY TO MID MORNING FRI WHEN TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST. AS PRECIPITATION IS FALLING... EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE MORE SLOWLY THEN MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS KEEPING TEMPS ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...NEAR THE CRITICAL FREEZING MARK LONGER. WE DO EXPECT ALL AREAS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING...MID 30S N AND W AND INTO THE 40S S AND PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. JUST A TRACE OF ICE CAN MAKE FOR VERY SLIPPERY ROADWAYS AND WALKWAYS. ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...WE ARE FORECASTING A TRACE TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST AREAS THERE MAY ALSO BE A COATING OF SNOW AND SLEET...UP TO A TENTH OR TWO. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE IN WAKE OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT FRI NIGHT. THIS DOWNWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO MINUS 15 DEG C BY EARLY SUN MORNING. IT WILL BE DRY FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...BUT THIS IS WHEN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WILL REACH THE AREA. HIGHS SAT WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS AND WHEN YOU FACTOR IN THE BLUSTERY NW WINDS...IT WILL FEEL AS IF IT WERE ONLY IN THE 20S. THIS WILL BRING CONDITIONS TO NEAR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA AS IT WILL FEEL AS IF IT WERE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS. RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14: WILMINGTON: 18 (1968)/19 FLORENCE: 15 (1968)/17 NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 (1955)/19 && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A VERY COLD DAY STARTING OFF WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NOT FAR EXCEEDING THE FREEZING MARK ON SUNDAY AS 1035MB HIGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION. FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES SPARING THE REGION FROM GROWING QUITE AS COLD. A VERY SMALL WEDGE OF THE HIGH REMAINS ON MONDAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL BUT STILL FEEL THOSE STILL MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE TOO QUICKLY. SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE A LITTLE WINDOW OF WINTRY PRECIP BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR JUST RAIN. MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW DRIVING SURFACE CYCLONE AND COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION FOLLOWING A GOOD FEED OF GULF MOISTURE. EASTERN U.S. TROUGHINESS FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM HAS A BIT OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SO TEMPS LIKELY CLOSE TO CLIMO. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITION EXPECTED THROUGH 13 UTC AT ALL THE TAF SITES. AS AN LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THE CEILINGS WILL DROP AND A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED AT INLAND TAF SITES. A COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED AT KILM...KCRE...AND KMYR. CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND AND BE BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR AFTER 13 UTC AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION AT KFLO AND KLBT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW BUT AS WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES QUICKLY OVERHEAD THE P-TYPE WILL BECOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAINLY AFTER 14 UTC. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...CONDITION`S ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO A BENIGN PRESSURE PATTERN THAT HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. EXPECT WEST WINDS AROUND TEN KNOTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE DIRECTION TURNING FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A BRIEF WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AT TEN KNOTS OR BELOW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL FROM 2-4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON TO 2-3 FEET FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL EAST OF THE WATERS FRIDAY AND LIFT NE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KTS EARLY FRIDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NW FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS...AND THEN INCREASE STEADILY TO 15-20 KTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY TO 20-25 KTS FROM THE NW BEFORE EASING SLIGHTLY AND VEERING TO THE NORTH LATE. ALTHOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE OFFSHORE DURING THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST SPEEDS...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY ONCE WINDS TURN TO THE NW...FROM 1-2 FT TO 3-5 FT...AND THEN REMAIN AT THESE AMPLITUDES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY 6 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING 25 KTS MAY STILL NECESSITATE AN SCA FOR SATURDAY. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...MODERATELY STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD BETWEEN BIG STORM OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST AND LARGE, CHILLY HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS GRADIENT WILL EASE RATHER QUICKLY AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND NO HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED. VEERING EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COASTLINE THOUGH A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH MAKING FOR A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST. MONDAY NIGHT BRINGS MARKED WIND INCREASE AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY APPEARS A LOCK AND THE NEED FOR A GALE WARNING LOOKS POSSIBLE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES YET ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER DOWNTOWN TONIGHT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ017-024. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ023-032-033-053-054. NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-105. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ106>110. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DRH TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SHK

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