Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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223 FXUS62 KILM 201605 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1107 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Mild temperatures for January, will prevail through early next week. A cold front will bring rain showers Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. A warm afternoon Tuesday, will precede a cooling trend Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure builds in. The high will slip offshore Friday, setting the stage for a warming trend next weekend, && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 AM Saturday...No changes to the forecast. As of 3 AM Saturday...Very quiet weather expected through the near term period. A mid level low will meander though the southeast states with little to no impact on the surface conditions. Some confluence in the mid levels well to the north will push high pressure a little further south east of the Appalachians today. In response to this, temperature guidance is going a little cooler for today`s highs. Given the fact guidance was too cool Friday, feel high temperatures will be similar to Friday`s, in the upper 50s to around 60. Lows Sunday morning will be in the lower to middle 30s due to overall airmass modification. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Saturday...Main caption this period, `Mild with Rain Chances late Monday`. Surface high pressure over the Savannah River valley daybreak Sunday, will migrate well offshore of the Carolinas by Sunday night. As a result, after an afternoon in the 60s Sunday, lows overnight into Monday will fall only into the 40s, as wind flow becomes southerly. In addition to pre- frontal showers, coastal fog, patchy in nature, may form late Monday, as rising dewpoints in the warm air advection, tracks over chilly inshore waters. Partial sunshine ahead of the front Monday will bring maximums in the middle to upper 60s by the early afternoon. Temperatures will remain cooler near the sea. There is no threat of wintry conditions with this frontal system, as very mild, pre-frontal minimums are anticipated early Tuesday, in the 50s, in a wettish start to the morning. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 3 PM Friday...Breezy conditions and warm Tue. Models indicate High pressure will then follow with cooling trends through mid week in wake of a cold front. High pressure overhead Friday will move offshore this by the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 18Z...VFR conditions expected through the duration of the valid TAF period. High pressure centered over Georgia will give us predominately westerly flow today with light winds overnight. Little to no fog expected. Sunday, moisture will begin to return, but still expect predominately scattered skies with light winds. Extended Outlook...VFR. Possible MVFR/SHRA late Mon/early Tue.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 AM Saturday...No changes to the forecast. As of 3 AM Saturday...High pressure sinking to the south and a westerly flow from the north will produce a west to southwest flow across all waters through the period. Wind speeds will be in a 10-15 knot range. No surprise significant seas without any distant swell component will be 1-3 feet. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 AM Saturday...A welcoming marine period on tap, as return flow, weak initially, develops this period. High pressure over the Savannah River valley daybreak Sunday, will move well offshore of the Carolinas by Sunday evening. This results in S-SE wind 12 KT or less Sunday and Monday, but increasing Monday night as a cold front approaches the coast. Inshore fog may reduce visibility at times by Monday night. Seas no problem Sunday and Monday, but Monday night 5-6 foot southerly wind-seas will build offshore as S winds amplify to 20 KT and gusty. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 315 PM Friday...The highlight for this period will be a CFP slated for Tue morning. Weak onshore flow will increase and become SW Tue ahead of the cold front. After FROPA Tue, winds will veer to the W and NW and then slowly abate by Tue night and continuing into Wed as the center of high pressure approaches from the Gulf Coast States. SCEC conditions likely Tue with SCA at this point a possibility. Significant seas 3 to 5 ft with a few 6 footers possible Tue. As winds become offshore, W to NW, on Tue, seas will actually subside due to a shortened fetch. Wind driven waves at 4 to 5 second periods will dominate Tue. By Wed, seas will run 1 to 3 ft thruout with a small ESE swell dominating. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...8 NEAR TERM...mbb/SHK SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...DCH AVIATION...43

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