Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 191948 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 248 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will slowly build across the area through Monday, shifting offshore mid week. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm through much of the week. A risk for showers will increase late Friday into Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 245 PM Sunday...Upper ridge will build eastward overnight with its axis remaining west of the Forecast Area. Weak surface high pressure across the area will be reinforced by high pressure centered across eastern Canada overnight. Skies will be clear with lows dropping into the mid and upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Sunday...Upper ridge will continue to drift eastward with its axis moving across the area Tue and then offshore Tue night. The strong surface high centered across eastern Canada will ridge southward Mon with the center migrating to off the Mid- Atlantic coast Tue and the Carolina coast Tue night. Cooler air will work its way into the area Mon night and Tue with 850 mb temps dropping to around 6 deg C. A series of shortwave troughs, embedded in developing NW flow late in the period may bring a shower late Tue night, but given the residual dryness below 5-6 kft, will refrain from including even a small POP at this time. There may be some late night fog Tue night as onshore flow brings increasing dewpoints. Highs Mon will still be well above normal, lower to mid 70s with the beaches stymied in the mid and upper 60s. Highs on Tue will be mainly in the mid and upper 60s with a few 70 degree readings across portions of the Pee Dee Region which is still above normal. Lows will be in the 40s Mon night and mainly lower 50s Tue night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 PM Sunday...The mid level pattern will be mostly zonal through the period. A shearing system will move through the Ohio Valley late Friday into early Saturday with a cold front at the surface. This will replace a very warm and moist airmass that will be in place Wedensday through Friday. The highest pops through the period occur with the front but are capped at low chance. There are low pops for Wednesday and Thursday based on interestingly enough a diurnal convective signature but activity seems a stretch. Temperatures cool off for Sunday but otherwise expect highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 18Z...High confidence in VFR through the valid period. Trough of low pressure well off the coast will continue to move away today, as high pressure begins to ridge in from the northwest. This leaves a weak pressure gradient and NW winds of 5-10 kts, falling to near calm overnight, beneath SKC. High pressure expanding down from Northeast on Monday will cause winds to shift to the E/NE, but at continued light speeds and with SKC persisting. Extended Outlook...VFR. Showers possible Wednesday and Thursday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 PM Sunday...High pressure will be reinforced overnight as Canadian high pressure ridges south. NW winds will veer to N late tonight. Wind speeds will increase from near 10 kt to 10 to 15 kt. Seas will remain 2 ft or less. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Sunday....The center of high pressure will drift south and be centered just offshore Tue night. N winds near daybreak Mon will veer to NE Mon morning. NE winds will then remain into Tue before veering to SE to SW Tue night. Given the proximity of high pressure, the wind direction may become light and variable for a time Tue night. Wind speeds will be highest Mon and especially Mon night, around 15 kt. Seas will be highest Mon night, up to 3 to 4 ft and lowest Tue night, 1 to 2 ft. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 245 PM Sunday...Essentially a summer like pattern for the marine community throuigh the period. With Bermuda high pressure being the main driver of winds expect a southeast flow of ten knots or less through the period. There is a Piedmont trough analyzed both Wednesday and Thursday with the westerly flow aloft but it appears weak and doesn`t seem to bump up the winds any. Significant seas will be reflective of the light wind fields with 1-3 feet and in most cases 1-2 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...JDW

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