-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 060250
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
950 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A SMALL
RISK FOR SOME VERY LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BEFORE THE RAIN AND DRIZZLE COMPLETELY SHUTOFF LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
DURING THE WEEKEND. THE SLOW WARMUP WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 900 PM...ISENTROPIC LIFT IS THE MAIN DRIVER IN ONGOING
PRECIPITATION. THE BACK EDGE OF THE ACCUMULATING RAIN WAS
ALONG A CKI TO LBT LINE AND THIS WAS IN LINE WITH THE HRRR. RADAR
SHOWED THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD CREEPING SLOWLY EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 40S FOR THE MOST PART...BUT A FEW
SPOTS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S. FACTOR IN A N WIND OF 15 TO 20
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND IT FEELS AS IF IT WERE IN THE 20S LATE
THIS EVE.

THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING A SLOW...BUT STEADY
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD THROUGH MIDNIGHT
WITH THE RAIN MAINLY OFFSHORE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...LASTLY ALONG THE
CAPE FEAR COAST. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR IS SHALLOW WITH N TO NE
WINDS THROUGH 4 KFT BEING TOPPED BY A DEEP AND STILL STRONG SW TO
WSW FLOW. THIS DOES SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER LONGER INTO
THE NIGHT. WILL HANG ONTO THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
WILL THEN SHOW THE PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRY FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE. SINCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS BEFORE AIR TEMPS DROP TO
32 DEGREES OR LOWER...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE FEAR AREA WHERE
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRI MORNING AS THE
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE RELUCTANT TO PUSH WELL
OFFSHORE. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THIS AREA IN THE
LOW LEVELS...TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP DOWN TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.
ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA...THIS WILL COMPLICATE THINGS AS ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WITH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY WARM TEMPS OF THE LAST TWO
DAYS...GROUND TEMPS TO INCLUDE ROADWAYS...AND EXPOSED SURFACES TO
INCLUDE BRIDGES...TREES...POWER LINES AND CARS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE SUFFICIENT TIME TO REACH FREEZING BEFORE THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ENDS. THUS...ALTHOUGH INSTRUMENTS MAY REPORT SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...NO ICE ACCRUAL IS EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WINTER WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. WHILE
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A CERTAINTY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER ANY PRECIP WILL LINGER
FRIDAY MORNING...POTENTIALLY AS A WINTRY TYPE.

COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SOME RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE COLUMN FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE LEFT IN THE COLUMN...AND SREF PROBABILITIES ARE LESS THAN
MENTIONABLE. FOR THIS REASON HAVE CUT BACK POP TO SILENT FOR ALL BUT
THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES...AND EVEN THERE ONLY A SCHC IS WARRANTED FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS FRIDAY MORNING. THIS PRECIP MAY BE A BIT OF IP/ZR
BUT NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM ANY WINTRY PRECIP.
THEREAFTER...RAPID DRYING OCCURS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ENVELOP THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTN. EVEN WITH FULL MARCH SUN...TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL
RISE ONLY INTO THE MID/UPR 30S - A FULL 25-30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL!
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA FRIDAY CAUSING CAA TO
WEAKEN...AND A VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS THE DRY COLUMN AND
WEEK WINDS SUPPORT STRONG LONGWAVE COOLING. GUIDANCE HAS COOLED A
BIT...AND WE MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT (20 AT WILMINGTON
AND 20 AT FLORENCE). CURRENT FORECASTS ARE JUST ABOVE THESE
NUMBERS...BUT AN EXCEEDINGLY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED.

A WARMER DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODIFY...BUT
TEMPS WILL STAY ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EVEN BENEATH THE
INCREASING MARCH SUN ANGLE. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL KEEP
MINS MUCH WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT THAN FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WHILE STILL
EXPECTING BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR LOWS...MOST OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SPLIT
FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES JOGS TO THE NORTH
WITH A WEAKER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. SURFACE
FEATURES INCLUDE A WEAK AND DRY BACKDOOR FRONT SUNDAY WITH A BROAD
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALIGNED OFFSHORE. THIS IS WHAT REMAINS OF OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS LATER TODAY. BEYOND THIS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE BUT POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST DUE TO MID AND UPPER LEVEL INFLUENCES. WITH THE WEAK
FORCING...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL BUT FOR NOW WE HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS...CHANCE VALUES FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE
FORCING IS SLIGHTLY BETTER. TEMPERATURE TRENDS SHOW A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS...MODERATED QUITE A
BIT BY THE MOISTURE...WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH 45-50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL TERMINALS AT TAF
TIME. WINDS ARE N 10-15 KT GUSTING TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES. A BAND OF
LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN IS MOVING FROM SW TO NE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT RAIN. SOME ICE PELLETS WILL MIX WITH THE RAIN. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING. IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MOST
LIKELY INLAND TERMINALS EARLY THEN THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATER THIS
EVENING. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN LIFTING CIGS TO VFR 06-09Z
AT KLBT/KFLO AND THE COASTAL TERMINALS 09-12Z. THE BACK EDGE OF THE
RAIN/ICE PELLETS WILL SHIFT TO THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND OFFSHORE
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

VFR EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS BECOMING SCT BY AFTERNOON. N WINDS
WILL CONTINUE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE
STRONGEST NORTHERLY SURGE AND THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND FRI MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 30 TO
35 KT. SEAS WILL PEAK IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 9 FT. SEAS WILL BE LOWER
ACROSS THE VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS TO INCLUDE LONG BAY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND THE GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL PERSIST THROUGH 10AM
FOR NORTH WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 34 KTS. WINDS BEGIN TO EASE
THEREAFTER...BUT WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL THROUGH FRIDAY...REMAINING
15-20 KTS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THESE CONTINUED STRONG NORTH WINDS
WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS ABOVE 6 FT ALL OF FRIDAY...AND AN SCA WILL BE
NEEDED ONCE THE GALE WARNING DROPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TOWARDS...AND THEN OVER...THE WATERS ON SATURDAY BEFORE DRIFTING
OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE PRIMARILY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY TAKING ON A
PREDOMINANT SW DIRECTION LATE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL STEADILY ON
SATURDAY...LEVELING OFF AT 1-2 FT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO MODEST WIND FIELDS AND
SIGNIFICANT SEAS. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...NORTHWEST
AND AN OLD BOUNDARY LINGERING OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE
MOSTLY NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL DISPLAY SOME VARIATION BUT OVERALL A
RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS SHOULD BE GOOD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL START
OFF VERY LOW...1-2 FEET SUNDAY AND INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
WINDS HOVER AROUND THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE FOR SEVERAL
PERIODS. COULD EVEN SEE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR