Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 021436 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1036 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1030 AM THURSDAY...BROAD 5H TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. BASED ON WV IMAGERY THE LEAD SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE OVER NORTHERN GA AT THE PRESENT TIME. PVA FROM THIS WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE WAVE DEEP MOISTURE IS PRESENT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. HEATING WILL RESULT IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL...BETWEEN 5 AND 6 C/KM...SO DESPITE PRESENCE OF SEA BREEZE AND LINGERING BOUNDARIES/TROUGHS THINK MOST CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER. MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE ARRIVES OVERNIGHT BUT UNSURE AS TO HOW MUCH THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. IF AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ROBUST THERE MAY BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY LEFT OVER DESPITE PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE ALL NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL END UP WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. COMBINATION OF CIRRUS BLOW OFF AND SMOKE FROM NORTHWEST FIRES HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH BY SUBTLE FLATTENING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY. HIGHS WILL END UP SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO...LOW TO MID 90S...AWAY FROM THE BEACH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE AREA MAY WELL END UP FINDING ITSELF ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF ACTIVE WEATHER. A FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY PAIRED WITH SOME WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT SHOULD TOUCH OFF SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS STORMS. WITH STORM MOTION WESTERLY AND STORM LOCATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE GRADED RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY, HIGHEST NORTH. SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER SHOULD SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL. A WEAKENING TREND AND PERHAPS A NORTHWARD DRIFT (DEPENDING ON MODEL CHOICE) SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL COVERAGE SOME EVEN AS THE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN POPS IS SOMEWHAT MAINTAINED ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS SEEMS TO BE THE FAVORED TRACK FOR VORTICITY MAXIMA (TO OUR NORTH). && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHORT TERM FRONT TO OUR NORTH SAG BACK SOUTHWARD SUNDAY BUT MERELY AS A TROUGH. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN THE AREA AND POSSIBLY EVEN DRIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPEARS TO WEAKLY CUT OFF AND MEANDER SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. IF FAST ENOUGH THIS FEATURE MAY MOVE OFFSHORE LATER WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A RIDGE OVERHEAD. MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL THUS FEATURE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A PRETTY NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF AFTERNOON COVERAGE.
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&& .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 12Z. TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL CIGS AND ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT SPRINKLES/VIRGA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY KFLO/KLBT UNTIL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT MID-LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SW-W AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z. WILL INDICATE VCSH IN TAFS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN VERY NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT DID YESTERDAY. THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE AFTERNOON WIND DIRECTION FORECAST...BUT EXPECT GENERALLY A SSW-W DIRECTION. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WINDS WILL BE SSW-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR VCTS WILL BE KFLO/KLBT LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN AGAIN BY MIDNIGHT Z. BY 08Z THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE TO THE COASTAL TERMINALS BUT DIMINISH TO SHOWERS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH/SEA BREEZE WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT TODAY. SPEEDS WILL CREEP UP LATE IN THE DAY...PEAKING AROUND 20 KT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS NC WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS SC WATERS. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER WILL INCREASE THE SWRLY GRADIENT WINDS BY A FEW KNOTS AND ADD SOME GUSTINESS. NOT REALLY ANTICIPATED ANY HEADLINES HOWEVER AS THE LARGELY COAST-PARALLEL FLOW KEEPS THE LARGER SEAS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE 20NM FCST ZONE. IT MAY BE CLOSE HOWEVER. THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENS TO A TROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT RELAXATION OF THE WINDS. SEAS WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES AROUND FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. PERHAPS THE FAINTEST OF SURFACE TROUGHINESS LINGERS ALONG THE COAST WHEN COMPARED TO A MORE SEASONABLE INLAND PIEDMONT TROUGH. THIS WILL FAVOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AS THE DIRECTION REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY BUT SPEED MAY FALL TO JUST 10KTS MOST ZONES. THIS SHOULD SHAVE THE 5 FT SEAS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE 4 FT WAVES FOR A 2 TO 3 FT FCST FOR THE MOST PART.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254. && $$ NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR

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