


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --298 FXUS62 KILM 281357 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 957 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will remain near to above normal through early next week with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected as high pressure prevails. An approaching cold front will bring increasing chances for more widespread convection along with slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. && .UPDATE...-- Changed Discussion --12z soundings from MHX and CHS reveal an atmosphere broadly similar to yesterday`s with convective potential ready to blossom during the heat of the day. The upper air pattern remains bland so any initiation for convection will have to come from the surface. The seabreeze front and a weak Piedmont trough are two features to watch closely. Satellite loops show cumulus developing near the coast a little earlier than yesterday, so I`m maintaining 20-30 percent rain chances. Latest model data and observational trends support highs in the lower to mid 90s away from the beaches. No significant changes were necessary to the forecast with this morning`s update.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --5H ridging from east of the NC coast will continue to extend westward across the FA this period. 5H low to drift from GA to the far western Carolinas by the end of this period. North to south Sfc trof to extend across eastern NC and SC this period. This and the mesoscale sea breeze to provide the forcing for only isolated chance for convection today, thus POPs limited to low chance, dissipating around or an hour or 2 after sunset. Clouds generally cirrus thin to occasionally opaque. Diurnal cu by midday with a few of these developing further into mature tstorms. Max temps low to mid 90s except upper 80s at the coast. Tonights mins, generally low to mid 70s with a few upper 70s along the immediate coast. Aftn heat indices to eclipse 100-104 degrees, just shy of Heat Advisory thresholds. Low to mid 70s tonights lows except upper 70s along the immediate coast.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --Thunderstorm coverage is once again expected to be limited especially by late June standards. As with the past few days, instability nor moisture will be lacking. We should manage 1500J/Kg or better, and PW values of 1.8 inches will top the 75th percentile for the date. What will be lacking is deep layer forcing for ascent. This is fairly normal for summer, with forcing limited to mesoscale boundaries. We`ve had such minimal storm coverage for a few days now so no outflows from Saturday will linger and the sea breeze will have to do all of the lifting (pun intended). The main reason this will be challenging for the seabreeze will be the dry air beneath the 5-7kft cloud base, the subcloud layer also being quite dry with the inverted V evident in forecast soundings. Highs will be in the mid 90s away from the oceanic influence, about a category above normal.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Much of the logic above will apply to Monday. There is about .15" more of PW water and the instability looks slightly higher, but the depth and dryness of the subcloud layer looks more pronounced and possibly even deeper. The seabreeze will make less inland progress and so painting the best areas for 30-ish POPs may be able to be refined in a day or so. Highs once again in the mid 90s. Storm coverage may increase west of the area as the piedmont trough strengthens convergence in the upstate regions of the Carolinas and there may be enough of a westerly component aloft for them to march towards the coast. A decaying front overtakes the trough Wednesday which could very well offer some of the best rain chances of the period. The front becomes hard to discern by Thursday but another one will be approaching from the NW. This boundary will also fail to move through the area preventing any airmass change, which is fairly common this far into the summer. If any day offers a chance for places to have trouble exceeding 90 it will be Wednesday due to extra cloud and convective coverage. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Predominantly VFR over the 12Z TAF issuance period. Latest GFSLamp guidance remains negative for any widespread threat from low stratus and/or ground fog leading up to 12Z. Sat basically a repeat of Fri but enough to mention a prob30 tstorm threat for the inland terminals between 21z and 01z. SW-WSW winds aob 4 kt will increase to around 6 kt later this morning and afternoon, except sea breeze at the coastal terminals by noon, 2 pm for ILM, will result in a steady south wind at 10-15 kt. Diurnal cu should commence late morning and persist into the early evening with again the inland terminals highlighted with 30 prob groups for convection. SCT-BKN mid to upper level convective debris clouds to persists thru this evening otherwise mainly SKC. Extended Outlook...Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible due to isolated/scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms through Sunday. The potential for impacts will increase Monday and especially Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the west.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --Through Tonight...Typical summer pattern with influence from the Bermuda high centered east of NC. SW winds 10 kt to dominate except becoming South 10-15 kt across the nearshore waters after the inland progression of the sea breeze occurs. These heightened nearshore waters winds will persist into the evening b4 the demise of the sea breeze. Seas generally 2 to 3 ft, mainly dominated by the 2 to 3 foot SE swell at 9 second periods. Only expecting an isolated shower tstm that may drift to the coastal waters from offshore. Sunday through Wednesday...The Bermuda High and Piedmont trough will remain in place through most of the period keeping wind out of the southwest and the bulk of SE swell only partially affecting the region. That is, the wind wave will dominate while the swell will be present but not the peak energy. Later in the period a cold front approaches in a weakening state. This slight tightening of the gradient will up wind speeds by about a category by Tuesday, lasting into Wednesday. Similarly our main forecast of 3 to occasionally 3-4ft seas should open up to 4-5 (mainly NC), still precluding an advisory.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...TRA NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DCH MARINE...DCH/MBB