-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 081505
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1105 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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HOT TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE AVERAGE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT BETWEEN MORE PRONOUNCED PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND BERMUDA
HIGH OFF SHORE. PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
EXITING SHORTWAVE SHOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA MAINLY RAIN FREE
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CU BUILDUP ALONG SEA BREEZE AND POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR
TWO...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SILENT POPS.

WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 90S MOST PLACES.
DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS...BUT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
LEAVING APPARENT TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 70S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...VARIOUS WX MODELS INCLUDING FOREIGN MODELS
HAVE ARRIVED TO A CONSENSUS EXHIBITING AMPLIFIED UPPER LONGWAVE
TROFFING TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF
THE UNITED STATES...WHICH INCLUDES THE ILM CWA. UPPER TROFFING
FROM THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX IS PROGGED TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD
AFFECTING AGAIN THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE UNITED STATES SOUTHWARD
TO THE FLORIDA GULF COAST. THE ACTUAL NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER TROF
AXIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ILM CWA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

AT THE SURFACE...MODELS INDICATE PERSISTENT PIEDMONT TROFFING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY...THAT GETS MORE OR LESS
ABSORBED BY A COOL OR COLD FRONT DROPPING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THU.
LOOK FOR FORCING FROM THE PIEDMONT TROF/COLD FRONT FOR INLAND
CONVECTION WED AFTN/EVENING...WITH SEA BREEZE INDUCED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE COAST. BASICALLY LOOKING AT 20-40 POPS FOR
WED...HIGHEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. FOR THU THRU THU
NIGHT...THE SFC COLD FRONT SNAKES A BIT FURTHER SE...WITH THE
MODELS INDICATING IT STALLING ORIENTED NE-SW ACROSS THE ILM CWA
LATE THU AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW. THE
HIGHEST POPS OF THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL OCCUR FROM MID-DAY
THU THRU MUCH OF THU NITE. PLENTY OF AVBL MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
FORCING FROM THE VARIOUS SFC FEATURES...ALONG WITH ANY MID-LEVEL
FORCING FROM A S/W TROF OR VORT MOVING OVERHEAD WITHIN THE UPPER
LONGWAVE TROF. WILL EXHIBIT GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS.

AS FOR TEMPS...WED TO BE THE HOTTEST OF THE 2 DAYS...WITH
APPARENT TEMPS IE. HEAT INDICES...DURING WED AFTN COMING CLOSE TO
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 70S FOR MORNING
LOWS...WITH MINS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST POSSIBLY EITHER NOT
DROPPING BELOW 80 OR REMAINING BELOW 80 DEGREES FOR ONLY A HANDFUL
OF HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE LONGWAVE UPPER
AMPLIFIED TROFFING PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE U.S.
WILL WEAKEN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO KEEP
AN IDENTIFIABLE UPPER TROF AXIS ACROSS OR JUST WEST OF THE ILM
CWA. THIS WILL PREVENT ANY TROPICAL AIR MASS IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS FROM REACHING THE ILM CWA. BASICALLY LOOKING AT A
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS...WITH OCCASIONAL LOW LEVEL SE THRU SW FLOW
ABLE TO INPUT SOME TROPICAL ATLANTIC OR GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
ACROSS THE ILM CWA. DYNAMICS FROM SFC FEATURES IN THE FORM OF A
STALLED AND SLOWLY DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FA...THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE...AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NW-N
ON MONDAY...WILL ALL COMBINE TO KEEP A BETTER THAN AVERAGE CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. ANY S/W TROFS MOVING
WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
ACROSS THE FA. THE CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY DAILY HIGHS...BELOW THE CLIMO NORMS FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE PATCHY 600FT-2KFT
STRATUS CIGS GENERALLY EAST OF THE PROXIMITY OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH
NEAR KFLO-KLBT. WINDS ARE SSW...AROUND 7KTS AT KFLO/KLBT...AND
10-20KTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPO 1-2KFT CIGS WILL BE AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AS LOW CLOUDS
LIFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SSW-SW TODAY...12-18KTS AT
KFLO...AND 15-25 KTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...HIGHEST SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO PEAK HEATING. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE
IN THE EVENING BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-12 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. JUST INLAND OF KCRE/KMYR. ISOLATED
CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY RE- FIRE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS. COVERAGE IS SPARSE ENOUGH NOT
TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE AS A FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...ADDED A PRECAUTIONARY HEADLINE TO FORECAST
FOR LOCAL WATERS IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. SW WINDS 15 KTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
GUSTY AND INCREASE UP TO 20 KTS. THESE SW WINDS WILL PUSH SEAS UP
TO 4 TO 5 FT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...THE PIEDMONT TROF/APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND THE CENTER OF 1025+ MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE AND
EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS...WILL PRODUCE A TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE
ILM COASTAL WATERS THRU-OUT THIS TIME PERIOD. MODELS ILLUSTRATE THE
LOCAL WATERS TO OBSERVE SSW-SW WINDS AT 10-20 KT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH WIND SPEEDS FLIRTING WITH 25 KT ON WED. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK ON WED...THEN EITHER HOLD STEADY OR SUBSIDE
SOME DURING THU. THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL MAINLY BE COMPRISED OF
WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 5 TO 6 SECOND SHORT PERIODS. WAVEWATCH3 DOES
IDENTIFY A WEAK EASTERLY GROUND SWELL AT 8 TO 9 SECOND PERIODS.
THE HEIGHT OF THIS GROUND SWELL MAY BECOME THE DETERMINING FACTOR
OF WHETHER TO UTILIZE THE SCEC OR AN ISSUANCE OF A SCA FOR PARTIAL
OR THE ENTIRE ILM COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY
ORIENTED SW-NE ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TO REMAIN IN THIS
POSITION FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD. THE AREA WATERS WILL SEE A
SSE-SW WIND DIRECTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE RELAXED ALLOWING DIMINISHING
WIND SPEEDS. THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL ALSO OBSERVE A SUBSIDING
TREND THIS PERIOD. THIS DUE TO THE MAIN INPUT TO SIGNIFICANT
SEAS...THE LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES...ALSO ILLUSTRATING
A DECREASING TREND. ANY THREAT FROM SCEC CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...