-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 270013
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
713 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
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A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST IS DEVELOPING INTO A
POWERFUL NOR-EASTER AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO FRONT LATE THURSDAY WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS DEEPENING RAPIDLY OFF
THE VIRGINIA COAST...SITUATED DIRECTLY BENEATH A BEAUTIFUL
BAROCLINIC LEAF ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOW THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WE STILL HAVE SOME INTERESTING WEATHER COMING UP OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THE COLD UPPER LOW. AT 500 MB THIS LOW IS
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF
SE VIRGINIA A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

500 MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -26C HAVE STEEPENED LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO NEAR OR JUST BEYOND THE MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE...AND
WIDESPREAD CUMULUS CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN THE RESULT.
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MOST NUMEROUS FROM DILLON DOWN
HIGHWAY 9 TOWARD LORIS...ALTHOUGH MODELS TRENDS SUGGEST THE BULK OF
IT SHOULD SHIFT INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AFTER DARK...AIDED
BY ANOTHER VORT LOBE SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA BY 03Z/10 PM. FORECAST
POPS ARE HIGHEST...UP TO 50-60 PERCENT...FROM THE STATE LINE INTO
WILMINGTON...WITH LESSER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PEE
DEE REGION DOWN TOWARD GEORGETOWN.

AFTER MIDNIGHT DRY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD CLEAR PRECIP AND THE BULK
OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF SOUTH CAROLINA...HOWEVER RECENT MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH PULLING OUT TO THE NE THAT
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE THROUGH AT LEAST COASTAL SE
NORTH CAROLINA. AFTER 5 AM TUESDAY MORNING I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
(20%) CONFINED TO JUST PENDER COUNTY NC...AND IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN AS FREEZING
LEVELS COME DOWN TO AROUND 500 FEET AGL. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER 30S INLAND.
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS DEEPENING RAPIDLY OFF
THE VIRGINIA COAST...SITUATED DIRECTLY BENEATH A BEAUTIFUL
BAROCLINIC LEAF ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOW THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WE STILL HAVE SOME INTERESTING WEATHER COMING UP OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THE COLD UPPER LOW. AT 500 MB THIS LOW IS
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF
SE VIRGINIA A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 PM...THE LOW OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY
DEVELOP INTO AN IMPRESSIVE NOR`EASTER THE WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA. FROM THE SYSTEM THERE ARE A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE IN WHICH NORTHERN PENDER COUNTY...MAINLY NORTH OF A
PENDERLEA TO SURF CITY LINE...WHERE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW MIXED WITH
RAIN MAY FALL. AT THIS TIME THE CHANCE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS A
VERY LOW 20 PERCENT. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

WITH A NORTHWEST THEN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A CLEAR SKY ON TUESDAY
THE AREA WILL SEE HIGHS ON TUESDAY REACHING MID 40S TO AROUND 50 AND
MID TO UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
20S TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THURS MORNING WILL
SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH THE DAY. A VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
AT THE SFC WHILE WINDS ALOFT REMAIN MORE WESTERLY AS RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST LEAVING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. THE WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRIER THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY...BUT MODEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL COME LATE DAY AS MINOR
PERTURBATION IN THE MID LEVELS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
DRIVES A COLD FRONT EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. PCP WATER VALUES SHOULD
REACH UP NEAR .75 INCHES BY THURS EVE. HAVE INCLUDED LOW END POPS
THURS NIGHT BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING COLD MORNING TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL.
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE FREEZING
THURS NIGHT AND THEREFORE NO MENTION OF MIXED PCP.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THURS NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRI. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AND DRY AIR WILL COME ON FRI
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. THE WARMER START TO THE
DAY ON FRI AND SUNSHINE WILL COMBINE TO PUSH TEMPS UP INTO THE 50S
MOST PLACES. DEEP NW-N FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATER ON FRI AS MID TO
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF SHORE. CAA THROUGH FRI NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPS
BELOW FREEZING WITH CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL EXIST THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH AT THE SURFACE. COLUMN WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH. OVERALL COOL AND SUNNY DAY ON SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST. AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST A DEEPER SW RETURN FLOW
WILL SET UP BRINGING CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHC OF SHOWERS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MON. SOME
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS WITH ONE BRINGING A SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ONE SHOWING A NORTHERN STREAM
LOW MOVING EAST. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS AND PCP WILL BE
BACK IN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA.

LATEST RADAR DEPICTS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. OTHER THAN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS
POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
RESTRICTIONS TO ARISE FROM PRECIP AS ITS EXTREMELY LIGHT. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WITH PERIODS OF GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20
KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INTO
TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AOB 12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
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&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST
WILL BECOME A MONSTER STORM SYSTEM FOR NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW. FOR THE
CAROLINA COAST THIS SHOULD SIMPLY BE A WIND EVENT. NORTHWEST WINDS
CURRENTLY 15-20 KNOTS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS HIGH WITH THIS EVENT.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4-6 FT IN VERY CHOPPY SHORT PERIODS
WITH THE OFFSHORE WINDS. OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY (NEARLY
35 MILES OUT) SEAS COULD BUILD TO 7-8 FT!

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...WITH THE NOR`EASTERLY SLOWLY MOVING FROM AWAY
FROM THE VIRGINIA COAST WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
AND THEN NORTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN
AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND MAINTAIN THERE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY SO SEAS
WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 FEET ON TUESDAY AND THEN DIMINISH TO 1 TO 4
FEET ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SW AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THURS NIGHT. THESE INCREASING SW WINDS WILL VEER AROUND
THROUGH THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER AROUND SLOWLY THROUGH FRI INTO SATURDAY
REMAINING UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE
REACHING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AND ON SHORE SAT NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF AREA SHIFTS EAST. SEAS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
FRONT AND THEN IN INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH FRI INTO SAT BUT
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE SEAS SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 5 FT REMAINING
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...HAWKINS
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL