Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 300112 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 912 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Intermittent rain will stay in the area through Tuesday until the tropical system makes its slow departure. Moisture will hang around for most of the week so while sunshine should return in part there will still be a scattering of storms each day. A cold front will approach next weekend and may stall over the area keeping unsettled weather through next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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As of 800 PM Sunday...Tropical Depression Bonnie circulation is at the moment located over Georgetown and Williamsburg counties. The pcpn activity via the mosaic 88d reflectivity indicates a rather non-threatening look to the pcpn both intensity and areal coverage. Have already knocked down POPs earlier and may need to hit it again given the latest trends. Due to the nocturnal aspect of pcpn and tropical systems, thinking would tend to increase overnight pops with several docile moisture feeds still moving onshore. I believe if ssts were another 5 degrees warmer, the onshore moving convective plumes would be more active. Will still continue with increasing the onshore movement overnight but with the days insolation over-with, the instability will not be there for additional convective activity to blossom. One thing to note is that models have come better in line with taking the sse-s moisture plume affecting the fa and shunting it eastward from the ILM CWA during Monday. As a result, the FA will not have that direct Tropical connection like the past several days. However, the tropical air mass already across the fa, local progged pws in the 1.75 to 2.00 inch range, will only need the Monday morning insolation to start/crank up the instability and in turn the diurnally driven convective engine. Have tweaked tonights lows up by a degree or 3, with just about the entire ILM CWA staying at or above the 70 degree mark tonight. Previous...................................................... AS OF 330 PM Sunday...Tropical Depression Bonnie is nearly stationary near Charleston SC this afternoon. Latest guidance keeps it more or less in this location through the overnight hours while it continues to spin waves of showers ashore with a very few embedded thunderstorms. Wind is not a threat and area obs continue to show surface speeds in the 10 to 15 kt range with gusts up around 25 mph. Heavy rain and the attendant risk for localized flooding or ponding of roadways is still considered the primary threat for the remainder of today and tonight. Have retained heavy rain wording in the public forecast for the near term. Latest Hurricane Center advisory has Bonnie making a slow drift northwards into interior eastern SC through tomorrow morning before making a turn to the east and then NE towards the Cape Fear region. Although SPC does not have us in any enhanced risk category for tornados, a quick spin-up this afternoon is not out of the question, so we will be keeping a close eye out for any suspicious circulations.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM Sunday...Tropical Depression Bonnie is forecast to drift east-northeast across northeastern South Carolina, ending up over the Cape Fear Region early on Tuesday. Thereafter Bonnie is expected to drift to the northeast and out of the area. Latest guidance starts out the short term with some dryer air at the mid- levels, with the column again becoming saturated fairly quickly. In any case there will be ample tropical moisture to work with as P/W values will be in excess of 1.75 inches through the period. Unsettled weather will continue through the short term with bouts of heavy rain being the primary threat. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 330 PM Sunday...The slow moving TD or remnant low from Bonnie should be near Cape Lookout Wednesday morning continuing on its slow northern track toward Hatteras through the day. Should see some drier air wrap around the back end into the area but still plenty of low level moisture to contend with. Therefore will continue with some clouds through Wed with Pcpn being more localized. A continued diminishing trend in moisture will occur through mid week into Thurs with increasing sunshine and warming temps reaching well into the 80s. The NW to W flow, or more off shore flow on the back end of departing low will come against sea breeze to produce some locally heavier rain or stronger convection. GFS shows decent coverage Thurs aftn just inland of the coast where best convergence and lift will be as winds begin to come around to the SW. Winds will shift around to a deeper SW flow of moisture as shortwave pushes a cold front toward the Carolinas Fri into the weekend. Expect pcpn water values back up near 2 inches late Fri into Saturday as moisture pools ahead of cold front. This front may reach into the area and stall over the weekend. Overall expect some clearing on the back end of the low through mid week as moisture diminishes on back end of departing low, but then increasing again as cold front moves in and possibly stalls over the Carolinas over next weekend. For now, kept chc pops in most days to account for some uncertainty. Temps will be well up into the 80s most days with overnight lows remaining quite high with such a moist air mass in place.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 00Z...Expect periods of low cigs, areas of fog, and periods of rain to create periods of MVFR/IFR through the valid TAF period as Tropical Depression Bonnie continues to affect the area. Otherwise expect VFR. Latest radar imagery depicts outerbands from Tropical Depression Bonnie moving onshore bringing isolated to scattered showers across the area. Expect periods of rainfall through the overnight hours with low cigs and areas of fog, creating MVFR/IFR as this system remains nearly stationary just southwest of the forecast area. Southeast winds around 5 kts will continue. On Monday, expect these conditions to continue with south-southeast winds increasing up to around 12 kts. Extended Outlook...Expect unsettled weather through Thursday with possible SHRA/isolated TSRA and TEMPO MVFR/IFR conditions.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... as of 800 pm sunday...At the moment, tropical depression Bonnie circulation was located across Georgetown and Williamsburg counties. It will basically meander across northeast south carolina overnight into daytime Monday. The overall pressure gradient will continue to slowly relax, especially with Bonnie meandering over land. Will be looking at a general sse-ssw wind direction running at 10 to 20 kt with a few 25 kt guts possible. The synoptic fetch from the circulation around the bermuda high will become more dominant as the fetch associated with the bonnie circulation continues to shrunk. Overall, will be looking at significant seas at 3 to 6 ft ILM SC Waters...up to 4 to 7 ft for the ILM NC Waters. Dominating periods will run 7 to 9 seconds. previous.................................................... AS OF 330 PM Sunday...Tropical Depression Bonnie is nearly stationary near Charleston SC this afternoon. Latest guidance keeps it more or less in this location through the overnight hours. Small Craft advisories will continue for all waters into the evening hours. Latest obs show 5 to 7 ft seas for much of the nearshore waters. Expect we will be able to drop the advisories before midnight as the gradient associated with Bonnie continues to weaken. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM Sunday...Tropical Depression Bonnie is forecast to drift east- northeast across northeastern South Carolina, ending up over the Cape Fear Region early on Tuesday. Thereafter Bonnie is expected to drift to the northeast and out of the area. The gradient associated with Bonnie will not be strong enough to bring winds or seas up to advisory criteria so do not expect any flags during the short term. Seas will generally hover in the 3 to 4 ft range, with winds of 10 to 15 kts. The greatest threat during the short term will be from heavy showers, which will be possible through the period, and the odd thunderstorm. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM Sunday...As TD or remnant low from Bonnie drifts slowly up the NC coast on Wed, winds should be more off shore and weakening allowing seas to relax even further. Overall expect a W-NW on Wed to come around to the W-SW and eventually SW by later on Thurs into Friday. The off shore flow will allow seas to drop below 3 ft by late Wed into Thurs with a slow rising trend heading into the weekend in minor southerly push in increased gradient winds due to an approaching cold front. Winds will basically remain S-SW less than 15 kts late Thurs into the weekend with seas rising slightly Fri night but remaining in the 2 to 4 ft range.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT Monday for SCZ054-056. NC...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT Monday for NCZ110. High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for NCZ106-108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250- 252-254-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...DCH/REK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...SGL

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