Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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256 FXUS62 KILM 131851 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 151 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALL WEEKEND. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WHILE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SHARPLY AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL LAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK EXCEPT FOR A MINOR COOLDOWN THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -10C TO -13C RANGE. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING CORRELATE TO LOWS IN THE MID TEENS. LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 850 TEMP SCHEMES WHEN CONSIDERING A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...FOUS DATA...AND THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS. ON TOP OF THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY SUN MORNING. LATEST FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH IS 5 DEGREES. SO FOR NOW HAVE NO PLANS TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY BUT TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN FORECAST OR WINDS A COUPLE MPH HIGHER COULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF 5 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BLADEN...ROBESON...AND MARLBORO COUNTIES. AS FAR AS RECORDS GO IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN OR TIED TONIGHT. THE ONLY SITE WITH A SLIM CHANCE OF SEEING A RECORD TIED WOULD BE NORTH MYRTLE BEACH. RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14: WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/17F FORECAST FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/18F FORECAST NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/19F FORECAST
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... SUNDAY HIGHS NEARLY 25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH ARCTIC AIR WEDGE STILL PUSHING INTO THE REGION THOUGH THERMAL RECOVERY UNDERWAY ATOP THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS. THIS RECOVERY WILL BE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE DO NOT GET NEARLY AS COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO LEAD TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS ALL OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING WITH WHICH THIS UPGLIDE STARTS TO YIELD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CRITICAL REGARDING OUR POTENTIAL TO PICK UP SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE AREA (WHILE 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 1 TO 3 C). WITH SUCH A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IT SHOULD TAKE A GOOD WHILE FOR THE COLUMN TO SATURATE AND THIS IS SOMETHING MODELS TEND TO DO A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY. LASTLY THE FORCING WILL BE QUITE GENTLE, ARGUING FOR A SLOWER TIMING. EVEN SO HAVE PUT ZR INTO AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS OF THE MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AS SUCH. COASTAL COUNTIES APPEAR TO STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR A LOW. WHETHER THE MORNING ZR MATERIALIZES OR NOT TEMPS WILL BE RISING PRECIPITOUSLY BY LATE MORNING AND ASSUMING THE WEDGE BREAKS MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE A HIGH OF 60 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. CONTINUED WAA MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A VERY MILD NIGHT BUT ALSO KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF PROSPECTS RISING ESPECIALLY SINCE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW NOW APPEAR TO APPROACH MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY SOME RATHER AGGRESSIVE DRYING LATER IN THE DAY. THE COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSET BY A RETURN OF SUNSHINE FOR FAIRLY SIMILAR AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS BOLSTERED IN STRENGTH ON THURSDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT SHY OF CLIMO BUT WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF SEASONABLE WEATHER. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 18Z...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS UP WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER A BIT MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND FAIRLY LIGHT EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED AND BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO NOT THINK IT WILL DO SO. AS A RESULT WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE SCA FOR ALL ZONES. COMBINATION OF TIGHTENED GRADIENT AS ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES BUILDING IN AND MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE HIGHER END OF THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM BELOW ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT...LOWEST ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS ON SUNDAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO JUST OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COASTLINE. SEAS COULD BE CLOSE TO SCEC BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING ENOUGH WAVE SHADOWING NEAR SHORE TO PRECLUDE. SUNDAY NIGHT A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND TURN THE WINDS MORE ONSHORE WHILE OVERALL FLOW SPEEDS DECREASE. SO WHILE THE NEARSHORE SEAS MAY SEE A SMALL UPTICK IN SIZE THE LARGER WAVES OFFSHORE WILL BE GONE. THIS TROUGH PAIRED WITH AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE THE WEDGE TO LIFT OUT ON MONDAY. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP IN SPEED AND ONCE AGAIN WE COULD BE NEAR NEEDED SCEC HEADLINES WHEREAS AN ADVISORY APPEARS NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME FAIRLY STRONG AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TO BE IN FULL EFFECT. THE FRONT LOOKS A BIT QUICKER NOW AND A SHARP AFTERNOON VEER EXPECTED. WIND AND SEAS WILL BE ABATING BUT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS A MORE PRONOUNCED IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES KEEPING FLOW LOCALLY OUT OF THE NW AT ABOUT 10 TO 15KT.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DL

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