Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 021148 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 748 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER INLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: AN AMORPHOUS AND ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WITHIN THIS PATTERN WE WILL SEE A WEAK PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE SET UP OF A MODEST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AMPLE INSOLATION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL LEAD TO SUMMER- LIKE APPARENT TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 90S MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE A GRADUALLY MOISTENING COLUMN...THE MID LAYERS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY...LIMITING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TODAY TO ISOLATED SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH RELATED CONVECTION. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL INCREASE CHANCES AGAIN FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR NORTH INTO THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THURSDAY. AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED INLAND TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS LACKING IN THE SHORT TERM. A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM IS ALSO LACKING AS WELL THUS PRIMARILY KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ONLY A WEAK INLAND TROUGH TO WORK WITH SOME INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO OCCUR THURSDAY (LOWER 90S COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 90S FARTHER INLAND). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE DURING THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LOW MAY EVOLVE AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL OR WHEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...BUT THE TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER POPS. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR VSBYS AT KLBT WILL RISE QUICKLY TO VFR. LIGHT WSW-WNW WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY SCT EXCEPT FOR TEMPO 6K CIGS POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KLBT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT SW-W LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTHERN TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED THUS HAVE NOT ADDRESSED IN TAFS. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS IFR/MVFR VSBYS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 620 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 KT OR LESS RANGE...WITH SEAS OF AROUND 2 FT...THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. EXCEPTION TO THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION STRENGTHENS. WINDS NEAR SHORE AT THAT TIME MAY BE HIGHER...IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...AND GUSTY. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH. AS A RESULT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS NORTHEAST FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH SEAS 3-4 FT. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SRP NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...JDW/SRP AVIATION...MRR

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