Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 311123 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 623 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY BRINGING COOL TEMPERATURES. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 545 AM SUNDAY...QUIET WX AND COLD AND DRY DURING THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD AS A HIGH PRESSURE CONSISTING OF A MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIRMASS AFFECTS THE FA. ITS BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST WITH NO SENSIBLE WX TO TALK ABOUT. EVEN FOG IS OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN GREATER THAN 15 DEGREES THIS MORNING...AND AT 5 TO 10 DEGREES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NAMBUFR HOURLY SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWS AROUND 0.15 INCHES TODAY...AND INCREASING TO AROUND ONE THIRD OF AN INCH BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK. THUS A SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH THIN CIRRUS OVERHEAD AT TIMES. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR TONIGHT IS MAINLY IN THE MID-LEVELS VIA MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS. THUS...IF ANYTHING...THE POTENTIAL SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT FROM TOTALLY BOTTOMING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE SFC BASED INVERSION FORMATION UNDER CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BEING OVERHEAD. ONCE THOSE CLOUDS ARRIVE...THE TEMP CURVE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND LIKELY HOLD STEADY AFTER THE INITIAL HARD FALL AFTER SUNSET. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN ELONGATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MOISTURE BEING DEPLETED A BIT AS IT MOVES EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WE SHOULD GET ONE AREA OF SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED RAIN BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC MONDAY...WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST POPS RESIDE. THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE SHOWERS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS MONDAY MORNING. INTERESTING TO NOTE SOME RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MIGRATING ACROSS THE AREA FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC MONDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 50-60 KNOTS AT 925-850MB. OBVIOUSLY INSTABILITY WILL BE ALMOST NON EXISTENT AT THIS TIME AND THE LACK OF ANYTHING MODESTLY ORGANIZED WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW. THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAVE BEEN TO ADJUST COASTAL HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND TO DO THE SAME AREA WIDE FOR LOWS TUESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST STILL LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS REMAINS THE WET SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF THE DRIER ONE. THE DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT GETS KICKED OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHTLY DEEPER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT PHASES SOMEWHAT AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE THE PHASING OR THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. BASED ON THE ECMWF AND COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...HAVE WALKED BACK POPS ESPECIALLY EARLY...WEDNESDAY. I DECREASED VALUES FOR THURSDAY AS WELL WHILE KEEPING LOW CHANCE. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT LEAST BASED ON THE ECMWF BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF IF THE GFS SUITE OF PRODUCTS VERIFY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS COOL ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IF THERE IS LESS MOISTURE ADJUSTMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MADE. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. POSSIBLE RAIN WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 545 AM SATURDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH NOON TODAY. LATEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS DURING MIDDAY AS THE INLAND CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL WATERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................................... AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WILL START OUT WITH SCA CONDITIONS...AND MAKE THE CALL OF WHETHER EXTENDING THE SCA AT THE NEXT UPDATE AT 6AM OR JUST LOWERING IT TO A SCEC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SFC PG AND CAA HAVE BEEN ONGOING ALL NIGHT WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH A FEW 30 KT GUSTS EARLIER. OVERALL TREND SHOULD SEE THE SFC PG RELAXING AND CAA BECOMING NEUTRAL AS THIS MORNING AND DAY PROGRESSES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WINDS LIKELY WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL PEAK THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW SUBSIDING TREND THRUOUT THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. WAVEWATCH3 INDICATES SIG. SEAS TO DROP TO AROUND 1 FT TONIGHT. WILL NOT BE THAT OPTIMISTIC...BUT WILL DROP THEM TO 1 TO 3 FT TONIGHT...WITH THE 3 FOOTER ACROSS FRYING PAN SHOALS OFF CAPE FEAR. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN MAGNITUDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY WHILE TURNING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO A HEALTHY 15-20 BY DAYS END. STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER...INTO A RANGE OF 25-30 KNOTS. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WHILE A BRIEF GALE WARNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OBVIOUSLY WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SCENARIO NOT A GOOD TIME TO BE OUT ON THE WATER. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS WITH 2-3 FEET SUNDAY INCREASING TO WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA EARLY MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AM. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...INITIALLY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. DIRECTIONS SHOULD TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW IN SOME FORM DEVELOPS. PRESSURE GRADIENT IT WEAK THROUGHOUT WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS...JUST OVER TEN KNOTS WITH THE INITIAL NORTHEAST FLOW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET TUESDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.