Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 150528 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 128 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTROL AREA WEATHER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE PAIR OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT APPEARS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS INDIANA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA LATER TODAY. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE IN A BRIEF LULL AT THE MOMENT. THE 300MB JET INCREASES TO WELL OVER 100 KNOTS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVING PERFECTLY ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. I HAVE BACKED OFF POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...THEN RAMPING UP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. I HAVE ALSO ADDED STRONG WIND WORDING TO THE WEATHER TYPE AS THE SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES. THE FORECAST EMPHASIS THEN SHIFTS TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A DEEP PLUNGE OF BELOW ZERO 850MB AIR TO OUR WEST BUT THESE TEMPERATURES MODIFY AND OR MOVE JUST TO OUR NORTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE IS VERY COLD EVEN SHOWING A 32 VIA THE MET FOR LUMBERTON AND 33 FROM THE MAV. MIDDLE 30S ARE ADVERTISED ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. AS USUALLY IS THE CASE...THESE APPEAR TOO COLD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN WELL MIXED. THE LOWEST I HAVE IS 34 IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AREAS AND I FEEL THIS MAY BE ON THE COLD SIDE. I DID DROP LOWS FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL COUNTIES TO 38/39. LASTLY A COUPLE OF NOTES...STORM TOTAL QPF LOOKS RATHER CONSISTENT AT JUST OVER AN INCH WITH THE OBVIOUS DISCLAIMER OF LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION. I DECIDED AGAINST A WIND ADVISORY AS WE JUST DONT COME CLOSE TO CRITERIA AND PUBLIC IMPACT...AT LEAST BY NOW WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE LOWER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AT H8 ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50 TO 55 KT RANGE WITH 0-3 KM SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300 DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL YIELD CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG BUT THERE STILL IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S WHICH WOULD YIELD CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND ENHANCE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. SHOWERS AND STORMS END RAPIDLY BY ABOUT 03Z WEDNESDAY WITH FROPA FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER TUESDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES NW BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE LATER MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THE TREND CONTINUES. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH CAA CONTINUING ON N TO NE FLOW WHICH SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AT THIS TIME...CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NE...SHOULD PRECLUDE A FREEZE BUT SOME FROST IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND MAY PERSIST INTO FRI...ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURES WILL BE LOWERING WITH TIME...AN INDICATION THAT THE WEDGE WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME. LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES THE ORIENTATION OF THE WEDGE AND ITS EASTWARD EXTENSION DOES NOT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THE DEVELOPING AND PRONOUNCED TROUGH INITIALLY OFFSHORE DOES MIGRATE CLOSER TO THE COAST BY THE WEEKEND AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH STRUGGLES TO GAIN PROXIMITY AS THE UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS WELL AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND IS LIFTING NE AND FURTHER AWAY. THE CLOSER THE TROUGH IS TO THE COAST...THE GREATER THE ISENTROPIC LIFT POTENTIAL AND THE HIGHER THE RISK FOR RAINFALL. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY DIVERSE SOLUTIONS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EURO IS POINTING TO A WET FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GFS KEEPS PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIME...BUT DOES BRING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SLUG OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND ON MON WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED NEAR IF NOT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE EURO ON THE OTHER HAND DOES NOT BRING THIS WAVE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MON NIGHT. THUS...THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST IS VERY MUCH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND WILL BENEFIT FROM MODEL CONSISTENCY IF NOT A MORE UNIFIED SOLUTION WITH LATER RENDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL ON THU...WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH MON. HIGHS THU ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 60S. WE WILL ADD ABOUT 5 DEGREES TO THAT ON FRI WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND MON... LOWER TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY LATE WEEK...AROUND 40 THU NIGHT...NO FREEZE IS EXPECTED. MINIMUMS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FRI NIGHT AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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EXPECT A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR WITH INTERMITTENT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOWERED CIGS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. LOWERED RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE AFTER DAYBREAK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE. VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT THE AREA TAFS AS VARYING CEILING HEIGHTS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AOB 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE. AFTER DAYBREAK...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWERED REGARDING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS GIVEN VARYING CLOUD HEIGHTS AND SHOWERS...OVERALL THOUGH ANTICIPATE MVFR/IFR AGAIN WITH INTERMITTENT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BEING SEVERE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IF THE ANTICIPATED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT TO THE COAST. PRIMARY THREAT WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AOB 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER STORMS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INLAND TO VFR...THOUGH EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PERSIST AT THE COAST. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING LATE VFR TUESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT LEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND EVENING BUT THE FETCH HAS PRODUCED THE HIGHER SEAS AS ANTICIPATED. THE CURRENT 4-6 FEET SHOULD REACH A MAXIMUM OF 4-8 FEET AROUND MID AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS...THE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DROP BUT WINDS WILL ENTER THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR A GALE WARNING HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED AS THE DEEP PLUNGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES TO THE WEST AND NORTH. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH S TO SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TUESDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT TO N TO NE AFTER THE FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT. N TO NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THEY GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS TUESDAY...MAY RELAX A LITTLE AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN BUILD AS HIGH AS 9 FT TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT RESIDUAL 6 FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE AT 20 NM AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY. FOR NOW SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 2 AM THURSDAY BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER IN TIME IN LATER FORECASTS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...ASSOCIATED WITH A COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW THRESHOLDS THU NIGHT OR FRI. SEAS OF 6 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL BE THE LAST TO DROP BELOW THRESHOLD. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH MAY COMPLICATE THE WIND FORECAST FRI THROUGH SAT. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP NE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...HIGHEST THU AND THU NIGHT...UP TO 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...UP TO 5 TO 7 FT.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...RAN LONG TERM...RJD AVIATION...SHK/SGL

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