Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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890 FXUS62 KILM 252043 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 343 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Near record high temperatures today will fall abruptly behind a cold front this evening. Much cooler temperatures expected Sunday as high pressure builds into the Carolinas. These cool temperatures will be short lived as a warm front lifts north early Tuesday. Near record high temperatures expected again the middle of next week before a cold front crosses the area on Thursday. A return to winter like temperatures is possible by next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Thee see-saw battle with sea fog looks like it has finally ended. Flow in the lower levels has become more SW- WSW and has also increased. Latest sat imagery shows cloudiness now moving off the mainland coasts of the Carolinas. This flow will also push drier air off the coast as evidenced with coastal obs along Horry and Georgetown coasts indicating sfc dewpoints having dropped into the 50s. Fortunately, this should end any visibility issues due to onshore movement of sea fog with the sea breeze having been over- ridden by the strong SW- WSW flow in the lower levels. Some tweaking downward of aftn highs along coastal counties due to the earlier sea breeze lasting longer than expected and keeping temps pinned from rising. May see a degree or 3 recovery with highs reaching possible record highs before all said and done. Clouds ahead and associated with the eastward moving cold front will pushing across the area this aftn thru atleast early evening. Only limited moisture avbl for low level cu/sc and mid level altocu by the time the cold front makes it to the ILM CWA. Latest model trends indicate this limited moisture to scour out even more-so as it progresses east. Latest HRRR indicates this dry scenario for the ILM CWA with the cold front pushing across the FA and offshore by mid-evening. By daybreak Sun, models indicate 1000-500mb thicknesses dropping into the mid 540s and 850mb temps to 0 to +2 degrees C. CAA will be in full later this evening and overnight under active NW winds, gusty for several hours immediately after the CFP itself. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Saturday...The flow aloft will de-amplify this period with nearly zonal flow aloft. At the sfc, Sunday will see the effects from Cool Canadian high pressure affecting the area with temps basically at or slightly below the norm thru Sun night. With fast flow aloft, the center of this sfc high is progged to push across the coastal areas Sunday night and to well offshore and east of NC during Monday. Return flow around the departing high will result in WAA under SE to S flow during Monday with max temps rebounding back to around 70 away from the immediate coast. There is a weak mid-level s/w trof that passes just north of the FA during Mon night. Enough moisture accompany`s this s/w as well a SE influx of limited moisture at the low levels off the Atlantic. Have indicated POPs increasing to low chance Mon evening and modest chance later Mon night. QPF will be on the light side, under one quarter of an inch. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...A warm front will be lifting north of the area Tuesday morning, with very warm conditions expected through mid- week. Temperatures Tuesday will be well into the 70s, and by Wednesday with strong WAA and better coverage of sunshine, record highs may be approached (low 80s for March 1st). While it will likely be very warm both Tue/Wed, an early-spring unstable environment will likely permit aftn showers and isolated tstms across the area, more widespread on Tuesday than Wednesday. A strong cold front will then cross the Carolinas Thursday with a good chance for showers and tstms during the morning into the early aftn, before much cooler and drier weather advects into the region. Thursday will likely again be warm, with potentially an atypical diurnal curve through the aftn behind the FROPA, before a trough digs down the eastern seaboard behind the front. After several days well above normal, it appears winter will make a return for the first wknd in March with highs and lows below climo Fri and Sat. && .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 18Z...Southwest flow will remain gusty as winds veer to a more westerly direction as cold front approaches from the west. A small area of sea fog crept into the Myrtles as the winds backed to a more southerly direction. This will only last for an hour or so and will move out of terminals as winds shift back to a more SW direction. The cold front will cross the terminals without any restrictions to TAFs. Winds will pick up out of the west just ahead of the front late this afternoon, with fropa expected this evening. Moderate northwest flow tonight will become northerly and lighten by 08- 10z in strong CAA. Extended Outlook...VFR. VSBY and ceilings lowered to MVFR/IFR with pcp Mon night into Tues and again with SHWRs on Wed. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 315 PM Saturday...Well the sea fog issues have finally abated. Given latest sat imagery and local obs, the low level flow has become more of a SW-WSW direction, eliminating whats left of the sea breeze. With lower sfc dewpoints having begun to push off the mainland this aftn, the threat for sea fog will also diminish given this influx of drier air. The sfc pg has tightened ahead of the approaching cold front and will yield increasing SW to WSW winds ahead of the cold front. Speeds will reach SCA values across the ILM NC waters, and SCEC thresholds for the ILM SC Waters. Winds will veer to the NW after the CFP around mid evening and persist thru the remainder of the night. The CAA surge will combine with the tightened gradient to produce continued SCEC thresholds for the SC Waters with 15 to 20 kt and gusts up to 25 kt. For the NC Waters, winds will increase to 20 to 25 kt and hold thru the majority of the night. Significant seas will run a healthy 3 to 5 ft SC Waters and 3 to 6 ft NC Waters. The ESE 11 second period ground swell has peaked earlier today, however it will remain a dominant force remainder of today and may equal out with locally produced wind driven waves with regard to it`s power during tonight. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM Saturday...Sfc high pressure centered just west of the spine of the Appalachians at Sunday Daybreak. A tightened sfc pg and diminishing CAA will keep winds frisky for the 1st half of Sunday. Progressive flow aloft and translating this to the sfc will result in the high`s center moving to the Eastern Carolinas early by Sun evening and to well offshore and east of the NC mainland by daybreak Mon. Winds will diminish to around 10 kt late Sun thru Sun night. Return E to SE flow on the back-side of the departing high will increase across the local waters during Monday...further veering to the S and SW and slightly increasing to around 15 kt Mon night. Significant seas will drop to 1 to 3 ft by Sun night into Mon followed by a building trend Mon night, remaining just below any Advisory or Cautionary thresholds. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Gusty SW winds ahead of a cold front will plague the waters Tue and Wed, with 10-15 kt winds Tuesday rising to 15-20 kts on Wednesday. FROPA is expected early Thursday accompanied by showers and a wind shift to the W/NW with continued speeds of 15-20 kts through late Thursday. Highest seas will occur late Wednesday into Thursday just ahead of the cold front, with 4-7 ft waves are expected and an SCA may be required. Otherwise, seas will be 2-4 ft during Tuesday on the light winds, and then Thursday thanks to the offshore component. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...RGZ MARINE...DCH/JDW

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