Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 040528 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 128 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...NEAR TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SAHPE. I DID INCREASE THE POPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE AS THE GFS IS DRY BUT THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE MUCH MORE BULLISH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HOT BUT MOSTLY DRY FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WKND. EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL PERSIST THIS WKND...BUT AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL EXIST OVER THE CWA SATURDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE FROM OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...TO PRODUCE A HOT AND MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES...WITH UPR 80S EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. VERY DRY-MID LEVELS WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION EVEN AS AFTN CU BUILDS...SO BUILDUP WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRETTY SHALLOW. THE SEA BREEZE...AND ESPECIALLY PIEDMONT TROUGH...MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY EVENING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART FIREWORKS FESTIVITIES SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR AND DRY WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE LOW 70S WELL INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION. SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO CLOSE OFF ACROSS THE TN VLY...AND WHILE THIS WILL STAY MOSTLY WEST OF OUR AREA...SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND BETTER PVA. THIS WILL CREATE MORE CLOUD COVER AND BETTER AFTN CONVECTION CHANCES...ALONG WITH KEEPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER...WITH MOST PLACES HOVERING 1-2 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 90. CONTINUING HEIGHT FALLS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY PERSIST CONVECTION WELL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH DECREASED COVERAGE...AND MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AROUND 70...SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AT THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL HAVE SOME INGREDIENTS IN PLACE THAT COULD KEEP THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED ESPECIALLY BY JULY STANDARDS. MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING STATE WHILE AT THE SURFACE A PIEDMONT TROUGH WORKS IN TANDEM WITH SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP SWRLY FLOW COULD BRING MORE CLOUDS THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NET EFFECT OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE TO TEMPER DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY WHILE BOLSTERING NIGHTTIME LOWS. THE MID LEVEL FEATURE WEAKENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND WE SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A REGIME WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND SURFACE MESOSCALE FEATURES ACT AS THE LONE CONVECTIVE INITIATORS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VCSH LATE...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VCSH POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR DEPICTS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...NOT CURRENTLY AFFECTING ANY TERMINALS. FEW/SCT LOW CIGS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS. WILL MENTION SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA OVERNIGHT...AND THUS HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH. ON SATURDAY...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS AND GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. ISOLATED VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO RISE ALBEIT SLOWLY NOW ACROSS THE WATERS AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING WELL. WINDS WILL ESSENTIALLY FOLLOW THE SAME PROGRESSION AS FRIDAY WITH A DOWNWARD TREND LATER TODAY PICKING BACK UP TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH SW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DIRECTION WILL VARY LITTLE...SPEEDS SATURDAY WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT...HIGHEST LATE AFTN/EVE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THANKS TO THE SHARPENING PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE 10- 15 KT SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS A BIT WEAKER. ADDITIONALLY...NEAR SHORE WINDS WILL BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH WITH THE SEA BREEZE SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE BEFORE RETURNING TO A SW DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 3-4 FT BOTH DAYS...WITH A SW WIND WAVE PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...INLAND SURFACE TROUGHINESS APPEARS RATHER WEAK MONDAY AND TUESDAY LIKELY WASHED OUT IN PART BY THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN STALLED TO OUR NORTH DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SEAS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT NOT ONLY DUE TO THE DOWN TICK IN WIND SPEED BUT ALSO THE DECREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FETCH ALONG THE EAST COAST.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AMZ254-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250- 252.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SGL

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