Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 211812 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 212 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS INTO THE 70S TOWARD 80 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXITING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING LEFT BEHIND DEEP SW-W FLOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF DEEP TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP KEEP COLUMN VERY DRY WITH PCP WATER VALUES DOWN NEAR A HALF INCH AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW OUT OF THE WEST. OVERALL EXPECT A CLOUDLESS SKY INTO THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO OR CLOSE TO 80 MOST PLACES. MID TO UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS IT DIGS SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING WILL AID IN KEEPING A VERY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH DECENT DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CROSS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE COLUMN REMAINS TOO DRY FOR ANY PCP. A FEW CLOUDS MAY BRUSH OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THE FROPA WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND IT. EXPECT DEEP COOL NNW FLOW BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING SHOT OF AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER. CAA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DOWN IN THE 40S INLAND BY DAYBREAK AND CLOSER TO 50 ALONG THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE FEATURE OF EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE FRIDAY MORNING. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET AND DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF A ZONAL WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE IS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AOB 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE...AS VFR PREVAILS INTO WEDNESDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN IN A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WEST WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH MORE OF A SW WIND NEAR SHORE IN SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN. SEAS WILL HOLD LESS THAN 3 FT WITH HIGHEST SEAS IN OUTER WATERS DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT BRINGING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND SHIFT TO THE NNW AND PLENTY OF COOL AIR BEHIND IT. EXPECT WINDS TO KICK UP TO 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE AS COOLER AIR BLOWS OVER THE WARMER WATERS. WILL HOLD BACK FROM A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT AS WATERS NEAR SHORE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND OFF SHORE WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHEST SEAS BEYOND LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT MOST WATERS BUT AS YOU GO JUST BEYOND 20 NM TOWARD THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY IN CAA OVERNIGHT. WILL INCLUDE A FEW 5 FTERS JUST NEAR THE 20 NM MARK. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET THURSDAY. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL

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