Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 250149 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 949 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Deep tropical moisture will linger through early Sunday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Slightly cooler and much drier air will move into the region Tuesday and Wednesday. A warming trend will develop later in the week with temperatures returning near normal Thursday through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1000 PM Saturday...The showers and thunderstorms with the heaviest of rain were occurring across portions of Columbus and Brunswick counties. This activity will move across portions of Pender and New Hanover counties through midnight. In these areas, an additional inch or so of rain is possible. Elsewhere, the convection was mainly isolated with a cluster of showers and thunderstorms working N from just south of the South Santee River. Convection upstream of our inland most counties was much lighter and mainly showers. The high resolution models are showing convection lingering longest at the coast and across portions of southeast North Carolina where outflow boundaries were interacting with the residual seabreeze front. Our forecast leaned most heavily on this guidance. In the wake of the convection, we should see low stratus fill in and perhaps some patchy fog as well although widespread and significant restrictions to visibility in fog are not expected at this time. Lows will be mainly in the lower to mid 70s. On Sunday, a slow moving front will near the coast. Pops will be lowest well inland where the activity will be mainly isolated. As you near the coast, POPS will trend higher with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected. Highs will be in the upper 80s inland to mid 80s at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Airmass change underway to start the period as cold front makes slow progress to the coast. It may hang up just close enough to the shore that some POPS will be maintained for coastal areas into at least early Monday (though not all guidance convinced as such). Even so, the dewpoints will be dropping into the low to mid 60s as the drier air advects in from the north and west. The deep moisture will continue to be pushed offshore Monday night though shallow low level moisture will linger near the front. AFter a seasonable and muggy Sunday night the temps and dewpoints will be a few degrees below normal Monday and Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Longwave 5h trough over the eastern CONUS at the start of the period lifts east-northeast Wed. Surface high building in from the north Tue will move overhead Wed and off the coast by Thu. As the Bermuda High sets back up Thu the pattern aloft will transition from flat/progressive flow late Wed into Thu to weak, but strengthening 5h ridging over the western Atlantic late in the week. Arrival of the 5h trough will be accompanied by an anomalously dry airmass. Forecast soundings drop precipitable water values under half an inch Tue night into Wed. The exiting trough and then the building 5h ridge will produce a significant amount of subsidence through at least Thu which, combined with dry air, should keep the region dry. Moisture starts to creep back in Fri as the surface and mid level ridge setup in a more typical summer time location. Moisture return may not be enough to support much more than isolated sea breeze convection on Fri. Coverage will increase Sat with both the sea breeze and the Piedmont trough becoming more active. Temps early in the period will run about 5 degrees below climo as an unseasonably cool and dry air mass builds in. Development of return flow Thu will return temperatures to climo late in the period. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 00z...Convection was winding down in the vicinity of the inland terminals, although showers were still upstream. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact the coastal terminals through late eve and have included tempo MVFR visibility and ceilings in association with this activity. Weak convection may linger at the coast after midnight. We are forecasting stratus and fog to develop after 06-08z with the worst of these conditions resulting in IFR near and shortly after sunrise. After 13-14z, we feel confident in VFR at KLBT and KFLO through the end of the valid TAF period. At KMYR/KCRE and KILM, convection may redevelop along the weak cold front and so the threat for MVFR conditions will be possible mid morning through early to mid afternoon. Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions possible in isolated showers and thunderstorms for the coastal terminals Mon afternoon and at all the terminals in isolated to perhaps scattered convection on Tue. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1000 PM Saturday...The Small Craft Advisory has been replaced with a Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headline through 6 am. Cooling associated with convection has disturbed the wind field this eve. The pressure gradient no longer supports Small Craft Advisory wind speeds and with seas no higher than 4 to 5 ft presently, the Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled. Overnight, we expect mainly SW winds of 15 to 20 kt with some gusts up to 25 kt still possible. Seas will be 4 to 5 ft. On Sunday, SW winds will diminish further as the front will be in close proximity. Seas will subside about a foot. Also, water levels are forecast to fall below 1 foot MLLW between 3 and 4 AM this morning and a Marine Weather Statement has been issued. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Saturday...West wind to start the period rather than the more climatologically favored southwesterly flow as a cold front enters the coastal waters. By Monday morning wind will turn to the N or NE as the boundary decelerates and stalls just offshore. The front washes out sufficiently Monday night to no longer be a wind- maker and weak piedmont troughiness ought to be able to allow a light SW flow to return. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Northeast flow Tue following passage of a cold front prior to the start of the period will continue into Wed. Northeast flow starts a slow veering trend later Wed, becoming easterly Wed night and ultimately southeast on Thu. Gradient will remain weak for much of the period with speeds 10 kt or less. Exception will Tue night when a surge of cooler air spreading down the coast pushes northeast flow close to 15 kt. Seas will be around 2 ft through the period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ107. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...III AVIATION...RJD

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