Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 181731 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 131 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure building into the Mid-Atlantic states will bring several days of cool, dry weather to the Carolinas. Temperatures should begin to warm up this weekend as the high moves off the coast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 10 AM Wednesday...Surface high remains north of the area into tonight with northeast winds gradually decreasing as the gradient slowly weakens. Some low clouds, associated with an area of higher RH at the base of the subsidence inversion, managed to move onshore this morning. These clouds have mixed out, leaving clear skies for the rest of today. Highs will end up right around climo despite a chilly start. Only minor tweaks needed for the morning update. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Wednesday...A 500 mb ridge over the lower Mississippi Valley Thursday will build over the Carolinas on Friday. This should push the surface high from the southern Appalachians into the northeastern U.S. A pronounced subsidence inversion descending to as low as 3000 feet AGL should help keep skies clear. It`s a pretty unremarkable weather pattern. 850 mb temps will recover through the period from around +10C Thursday morning to around +14C by Friday. While the subsidence inversion aloft should guarantee we won`t mix all the way up to 850 mb, it still appears we`ll see upper 70s for highs both days, with perhaps an isolated 80-degree reading Friday. Morning lows should range from the upper 40s-lower 50s Thursday night to the lower-mid 50s Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...It will remain high and dry into Sunday as high pressure remains in control of area weather. An approaching cold front and return flow around the high will bring increasing clouds Sunday and Sunday night with a small chance of showers. Chances for showers will continue Monday and Tuesday as the front moves into and through the area. Max temperatures Friday through Monday will be in the upper 70s to around 80 and in the mid 70s Tuesday. Minimums will moderate from the low to mid 50s Friday morning to the low to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday morning. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 18Z...Latest satellite indicates cirrus west of KFLO/KLBT with marine stratocumulus mostly offshore. There is high confidence of VFR all terminals through 19/10Z with sct clouds and NE winds. Confidence of VFR lowers by 10Z coastal terminals when there will be an increased potential for BR/sct IFR stratus through 13-14Z. Extended Outlook...Tempo MVFR/showers Mon/Tues. Otherwise VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 10 AM Wednesday...Surface high to the north will maintain a tight gradient over the waters into the afternoon. Pinched gradient will keep winds a solid 20 kt with seas across the outer edges of the marine zones, except AMZ254, running 6 ft today. Small craft advisory continues through the afternoon with a SCEC in effect for AMZ254. Gradient will gradually weaken during the late afternoon and early evening hours with both winds and seas gradually decreasing. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Wednesday...High pressure will remain across the Mid-Atlantic states Thursday through Friday. A weak wave of low pressure will develop in the open Atlantic northeast of the Bahamas on Thursday, quickly shooting northeast and away from the United States. This feature will help keep the pressure gradient tight enough on Thursday for 15-20 kt northeast winds in the morning, but wind speeds should diminish Thursday afternoon and night, and by Friday morning should be 10 kt or less. Seas should likewise subside through the period. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Winds will gradually become easterly by Sunday morning then southeast by Sunday night. Seas 2 to 3 FT Saturday then increase to 3 to 5 FT by Sunday evening. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 10 AM Wednesday...Astronomical tides will peak with the new moon on Thursday. High tides and strong northeast winds may combine to push tides above minor coastal flooding thresholds at Wrightsville Beach and the lower Cape Fear River to include downtown Wilmington. Advisories may be needed around the time of high tide through Friday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250- 252-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...RAN AVIATION...MRR

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