Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 161754 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 154 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND THEN WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BY FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE FREEZING MARK FOR SOME LOCATIONS WELL INLAND EARLY ON THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1:55 PM WEDNESDAY...SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS EVEN THE STRATO-CU HUGGING THE GEORGETOWN COAST HAS MOVED TO SEA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM A WEDGE-LIKE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN. SURFACE RIDGING WILL EXTEND SW ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT AS A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE KEEPS LOW LEVEL FLOW COOL AND NORTHEASTERLY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL HELP INCREASE P/W VALUES FROM PRESENT QUARTER-INCH RANGE TO AROUND A HALF-INCH BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. EXPECTING A RESULTANT MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. BIG FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...SPECIFIACALLY...WILL IT GO BELOW FREEZING OR NOT? LAST NIGHTS GUIDANCE WAS OVERALL TOO WARM BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...GIVE OR TAKE A DEGREE...WHICH WAS MUCH AS EXPECTED GIVEN VIGOROUS MIXING THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE AGAIN LEANED TO THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE BECAUSE IT SEEMS LIKE GUIDANCE IS AGAIN NOT TAKING MIXING INTO FULL ACCOUNT. MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHEN MODIFIED TO ACCOUNT FOR MIXING...MAKE IT LOOK LIKE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE UNLIKELY...AND ONGOING MIXING ALSO MAKE FROST UNLIKELY. WILL CAP OUR LOWS TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S AS A RESULT AND WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FREEZE/FROST PRODUCTS. HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY MENTION LOW PROBABILITY OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE HWO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH IN A FAMILIAR WEDGE TYPE PATTERN. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER GULF COAST AND WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A TROUGH EXTENDING UP FROM THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND JUST OFF SHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE WINDS VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN MORE OF A PINCHED GRADIENT FLOW THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHC OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCP AS EARLY AS THURS MORNING. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS JUST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURS AND THEN GREATER CHC OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH TRACK OF LOW SO THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY PCP WILL ENTER BACK IN THE FORECAST AND HOW LONG IT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE PCP ON FRI...BUT IT COULD LAST INTO SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AND WARM ONLY SLIGHTLY THURS AND FRI IN CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...TEMPS WILL REBOUND ABOUT 30 DEGREES TO REACH INTO THE 60S. DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST COULD HAMPER THIS RISE AND WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS WEDGE EVOLVES. CLOUDS AND PCP ON FRI WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN...CLOSER TO 60. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL NUDGE THE LOW/TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FURTHER OFF SHORE. THEREFORE EXPECT DRIER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY BACK IN IN DEEP NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH SATURDAY. REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL REACH INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY AS A DRY FRONT MOVES SOUTH BUT MAINLY EXPECT ANOTHER PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND MID APRIL SUNSHINE. ON SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO 70 UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REACH INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH INTO MONDAY BUT IT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF SHORE AS NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS BUT ALSO GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THIS SYSTEM EAST WITH WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE ON TUES. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING CHC OF PCP THROUGH TUES AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHES CLOSER TO THE CAROLINAS. TEMPS WILL REACH UP INTO THE 70S REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...COLD FRONT NOW WELL OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN. STRONG NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL HAVE WINDS GUSTING OCCASIONALLY OVER 25 KTS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE IN THROUGH THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...HOWEVER IT SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY STRATUS/FOG INITIALLY...GIVEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SO FAR SOUTH. IT IS NOT THE CLASSIC WEDGE AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE A BIT DEEPER THAN NORMAL. WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...BUT WILL PROBABLY STAY ABOVE 5 KTS. LOOK FOR A VFR STRATOCU CEILING AFTER MIDNIGHT...MVFR WORST CASE TOWARD MORNING. THURSDAY...A CONTINUED STRATOCU CEILING...MOST LIKELY VFR. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AT THE INLAND TERMINALS...WITH CEILINGS LOWERING FRIDAY TO IFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. PRECIP POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1:55 PM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. A DEVELOPING WEDGE PATTERN CONSISTING OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SW ALONG THE APPALACHIANS IN COMBINATION WITH A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE WILL KEEP NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM. WINDS NEAR SHORE OVERNIGHT WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS IN A WEDGE LIKE PATTERN THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. TROUGH BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED THROUGH LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY JUST OFF SHORE AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF AND RIDES UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. OVERALL EXPECT PERSISTENT NE FLOW GREATEST OFF SHORE AND DECREASING CLOSER TO THE COAST TO NEAR 10 TO 15 KTS BY LATE THURS INTO FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS OVER SCA THRESHOLDS ON THURS TO FINALLY FALL TO 4-6 FT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. EXPECT A FURTHER DROP IN SEAS AS WINDS LIGHTEN FURTHER INTO FRI NIGHT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST NUDGING THE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST FURTHER OFF SHORE. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. WNA SHOWS WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT A SPIKE UP ON SUNDAY IN NORTHERLY SURGE.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054- 056. NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106- 108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DL MARINE...REK/RGZ

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