Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 300736 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 336 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH INTO LATE WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. A COASTAL FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING GOOD RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...THE UNUSUAL AMPLIFIED UPPER LONGWAVE TROF TO REMAIN SITUATED...AFFECTING MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE N-S ORIENTED UPPER TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FA. OVERALL...THE ILM CWA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE RHS. FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR TO HAVE COMFORTABLE RHS IS DIFFICULT TO COME BY...BUT TO HAVE POTENTIALLY UP TO 3 TO 4 DAYS IN A ROW...IS A GIFT. WILL BASICALLY USE PERSISTENCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. CHANNELED WEAK VORTICITY TRAVELING WITHIN THE UPPER TROF...AS SEEN WITH 7H AND 5H PROGS...WILL OCCASIONALLY PUSH ACROSS THE FA. THIS FORCING AND ENOUGH MOISTURE EXISTING BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE LAYER WILL RESULT IN CU/AC/SC CLOUDS AT ALMOST ANY TIME ACROSS THE FA. MAJORITY OF IT WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE FORCING FROM THE RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS TO OCCUR. WILL REMAIN ON THE FENCE AS FAR AS PLACING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST EXTENDING FROM THE RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY TO THE COAST WHERE ENOUGH JUICE IE. CAPE...HAVING BECOME AVAILABLE. FOR NOW POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED JUST UNDER 15 PERCENT. TEMPS HAVE BEEN A HEADACHE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...MAINLY THE MAX TEMPS. OVERALL..WILL GO ALONG WITH PERSISTENCE...STAYING CLOSER TO THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL OF LATE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SHORT TERM THANKS TO A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE HUDSON BAY MAINTAINING AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST. THIS FEATURE WILL VERY GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE WKND...AND THUS SUBTLE THICKNESS INCREASES WILL OCCUR...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BACK MORE TO THE S/SW OFF THE SURFACE...INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE. PWATS THURSDAY AROUND 1.75 INCHES ARE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE VALUES FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WETTER DAY HOWEVER...AS COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TOWARDS THE COAST...LIKELY MOVING ONSHORE LATE FRIDAY. PWATS RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND CONTINUED UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THE JET-STREAK EMBEDDED DOWNWIND OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH...TO CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT/NOCTURNAL DECREASE OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY...BUT DO EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DATE...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE PEE DEE REGION OF SC MAY APPROACH 90. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES RISE FRIDAY...CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIMIT WARMING...AND THUS HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THURSDAY. MINS BOTH NIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND...AROUND 70 AT THE COAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A WET PERIOD EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM...MAKING THE FIRST WEEKEND OF AUGUST COOL AND UNSETTLED. LARGE UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE EASTERN CONUS FOR SOME TIME WILL FINALLY...SLOWLY...BEGIN TO ERODE THANKS TO THE WEAKENING OF THE PARENT VORTEX...AND THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WHILE THIS RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THE PERSISTENT TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL TUESDAY FOR ANY NOTICEABLE WARMING/DRYING TO OCCUR LOCALLY...AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE REASON FOR THIS IS BECAUSE AS THE TROUGH BEGINS RECEDE TO THE WEST...A COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS PROVIDES STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION...WHILE MID-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION OCCURS ON INCREASING S/SW FLOW DOWNWIND OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS PRODUCES PWATS OVER TWO INCHES...WHICH COMBINE WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THE JET STREAK AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO CREATE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND EVEN INTO MONDAY. FINALLY BY TUESDAY THE SURFACE TROUGH WASHES OUT...RIDGING TAKES HOLD ALOFT...AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER DEVELOPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 06Z...LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER ROGUE SHRA EARLIER WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE ILM TERMINAL WITH MID-LEVEL CEILINGS...ELSEWHERE...MAINLY SKC. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST ISSUANCE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM REDUCED VSBY FROM BR ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMS. SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXED GRADIENT TO YIELD CALM TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 700MB...WITH THE DAYS INSOLATION THE FA WILL OBSERVE SCT/BKN 5K TO 10K FOOT CEILINGS. WINDS DURING DAYTIME WED WILL START OUT NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KT...VEERING TO THE E AND SE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMS DUE TO THE RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY DEVELOPING AND PUSHING INLAND. ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE LOWERED CEILINGS WILL BE A REFLECTION OF THIS POSSIBILITY FOR NOW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS DUE TO MORNING FOG FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...OTHERWISE VFR. CHANCE MAINLY AFTN/EVNG SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...SYNOPTICALLY THE AREA WATERS WILL LIE IN BETWEEN A BROAD SFC LOW WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND CENTER OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE RESULTING SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT ACROSS THE ILM WATERS WILL PRODUCE NE-E WINDS AROUND 10 KT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FOR THIS AFTN AND EVENG...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL BECOME SE AT 10-15 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE COMBINED EFFORTS OF THE LOCALLY PRODUCED 1-2 FOOT WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 SECOND PERIODS...AND THE ESE 1-2 FOOT GROUND SWELL AT 8-9 SECOND PERIODS. IN ESSENCE...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE AROUND 3 FEET THRUOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...STALLED COLD FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE PUSHED BACK TOWARDS THE COAST THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE DURING FRIDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK NEAR THIS FEATURE...WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A VEERING FROM THE EAST THURSDAY...TO SE ON FRIDAY...WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. SEVERAL WAVE GROUPS WILL EXIST WITHIN THE SPECTRUM...BUT A LOW AMPLITUDE SE GROUND SWELL AND EAST AND SOUTHEAST WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE 2-3 FT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NW OF THE WATERS BY EARLY SATURDAY...AND REMAIN INLAND DURING THE WKND. WINDS BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL VEER SLOWLY FROM SE TO SW...AT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY 2-3 FT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT SOME 4 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THANKS TO THE LONGER SPATIAL FETCH FROM THE S/SE.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DCH MARINE...DCH/JDW

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