Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 021719 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 119 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK FOLLOWING A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BRING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 120 PM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED WELL OFFSHORE...AN IMPORTANT DEWPOINT GRADIENT STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE CWA. THIS SEEMS TO BE ACTING LIKE A DRYLINE FEATURE AND THE NAM HAS CONVECTION FIRING ALONG IT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT AND A LOOK AT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS IT MAY OCCUR ONCE AGAIN THIS PM. I HAVE ADDED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THIS LINE EXTENDING FROM PENDER COUNTY SOUTH AND WEST TO FLORENCE. AFTER THIS THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS BACKING WITH HEIGHT THUS INCREASING CONVERGENCE BASICALLY ALONG THE COAST...THIS OCCURS AFTER 0600 UTC. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE 1200 RUN WHILE THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGRESSIVE. I AM CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE GOOD CHANCE POPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. FOLKS WEST OF I-95 WILL PROBABLY MISS OUT ENTIRELY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING 0.25 TO 0.50 FOR THE SIX HOUR PERIOD WHILE THE GFS JUST UNDER A TENTH. MY EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS...ALONG THE COAST RECEIVE RAINFALL...THE QPF IS LIGHT AS THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY RESIDES JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS PROBABLY WHAT WE WILL SEE THROUGH 1200 UTC. I LIKE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS/MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDCOVER MOVING IN. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE OVERHEAD MONDAY THANKS TO RIDGING SLOWLY BULGING OUT OF THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS LEADS TO A MORE TYPICAL MID-LEVEL PATTERN FOR AUGUST WITH VERY WEAK BAROCLINIC GRADIENTS...ERODING THE BOUNDARY COMPLETELY. BEFORE THIS OCCURS THOUGH...ENOUGH FORCING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE FRONT AND AN AFTN SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED/SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE PWATS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER SE OF THE FRONT...AND WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND ENHANCING PRECIP ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST. WHILE THE NAM APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE...HAVE SEEN A FEW WAVES ALONG THIS FRONT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND THUS THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE IN ONE MORE THIS PERIOD. HAVE BUMPED POP TO LOW-LIKELY FROM ABOUT HOLDEN BEACH TO CAROLINA BEACH AND SE...WITH HIGH CHC JUST INLAND FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT HOWEVER...AND THE BEST CONVECTION MAY REMAIN LURKING JUST OFFSHORE. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN BE TOO DRY AS A VERY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT FOR THE I-95 COUNTIES. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ABOUT 90 AT THE COAST...RISING TO AROUND 97 IN THE WARMEST INLAND ZONES. MINS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO ACROSS THE AREA...72 WELL INLAND TO AS WARM AS 78 ON THE BEACHES. TUESDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO DAYS...BUT ALSO HOTTER THANKS TO HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT AS THE RIDGE DISPLACES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20C...AND PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 6-HR SREF PROBS FOR 0.01 INCHES DEPICT A SMALL AREA OF 40-50% ALONG THE SEA BREEZE TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS WELL BELOW THE PERSONAL THRESHOLDS OF 80%+ FOR THIS PARAMETER FOR PRECIP. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION AND VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM TUESDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW DRIVING HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...UPR 90S IN THE WARM SPOTS...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID AND UPR 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HOT WEATHER ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC. THICKNESSES LOCALLY DO NOT GET EXCEEDINGLY ROBUST...BUT WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO...AND COMBINE WITH WARM 850MB TEMPS TO KEEP HIGHS AND LOWS LIKELY 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WED THU AND FRI. WED AND THU ALSO LOOK TO BE PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID-LEVELS ARE DRY AND NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED SCHC WED FOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ACTIVITY...AND DROP POP FROM INHERITED FOR THURSDAY FOR THE SAME REASONS. BY FRIDAY...A BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SO CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP...ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES INTO THE AREA. WILL KEEP POP IN THE CHC RANGE FOR D6/D7 WITH COOLER TEMPS FOLLOWING THE FRONT NEXT WKND. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 18Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR AND VFR IS LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCT LOW/MID CLOUDS EXPECTED. NE-E WINDS WILL BECOME SE...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES INLAND. THE CHANCE OF VCSH IS LOW AT THE TERMINALS HOWEVER...WITH AN EVEN LESS CHANCE OF VCTS. THIS EVENING WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AT KFLO/KLBT AND LIGHT SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT VFR BECOMING MVFR DUE TO BR IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AT KFLO/KLBT. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT Z AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MAINLY KMYR/KCRE DUE TO REDUCED VSBYS BEFORE 14Z. AFTER 14Z BEST CHANCE OF MVFR WILL BE AT KILM AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER NE UP THE COAST. CONFIDENCE OF IFR IS LOW ATTM. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 120 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS STILL RELATIVELY WEAK HOWEVER (41013 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING CALM WINDS) AND WINDS WILL LOSE THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE OF A SE DIRECTION AND GO MORE SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS SHOULD SETTLE NICELY INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET TO 3-5 FEET AFTER 0600 UTC VIA THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN WINDS AND A DECENT SWELL COMPONENT REMAINING IN THE MIX. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE WAVERING ALONG THE COAST. AS THIS WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...THE GRADIENT WILL PINCH...CAUSING S/SW WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. HAVE EASED WINDS A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE SINCE THE WAVE SHOULD BE WEAK...BUT 15-20 KT WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS IS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A WIND WAVE OF 5 FT AT 6 SEC...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2FT/11SEC SWELL TO PRODUCE 4-6 FT SEAS MUCH OF MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATE MONDAY WITH A MUCH WEAKER GRADIENT LEFTOVER FOR TUESDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING TOWARDS THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A SW WIND OF 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS WILL FALL TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST EARLY IN THE DAY. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FLOW WED AND THU AS A NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. WINDS AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL BE FROM THE TYPICAL SW DIRECTION...WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE A WIND CHOP ATOP AN 11 SEC GROUND SWELL...AND SEAS WILL BE 3-4 FT...ISOLATED UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES...BOTH DAYS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MRR

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