Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 222254 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 654 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO REGION AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURNING TO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...JUST A BEAUTIFUL EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. COLD FRONT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND DIURNAL CU WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK SEA BREEZE IS MELTING AWAY. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS EAST FROM THE MS VLY. THE COOL DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND HAVE SIDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE 50 IN THE NW ZONES...TO AROUND 55 ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...H5 TROUGH EXITING NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY WILL ALLOW HEIGHTS TO INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AS THE H5 RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST FROM THE MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING OFF THE COAST OF DELMARVA. ONSHORE WIND EACH DAY WILL HOLD MAX TEMPERATURES BACK EACH DAY...WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO THE 80S. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL EACH NIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INLAND STATIONS. NO POPS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THE H85-5 LAYER. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME INDICATIONS OF THE FEATURE BREAKING DOWN VERY LATE BUT WITH WEAK TROUGHING UPSTREAM...IT APPEARS THE PROCESS WILL BE SLOW. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AS WELL. WE CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON A DIURNAL BASIS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT EVEN THIS SEEMS A STRETCH. WARMING WILL BE SLOW ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS NEAR 90 INLAND AND THE MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF 65 DEGREES. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WITH VFR AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. 3-5 DEGREE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS WITH DRIER AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANY POTENTIAL BR ISSUES. VFR SATURDAY WITH NE WINDS IN THE AM BECOMING E-SE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE CALM MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH NIGHTFALL...AND WINDS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE ON A N/NE DIRECTION WITH 5-10 KT SPEEDS. THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-3 FT...SLIGHTLY LESS IN THE SHADOWED REGION SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ADJACENT WATERS OF NORTHEAST SC AND SOUTHEAST SC. THE HIGH WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY ALLOWING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO PREVAIL. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-3 FT INSHORE TO 3-4 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE EACH DAY. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A FULL FLEDGED SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOONS COURTESY OF THE SEA BREEZE ACCELERATION. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL GENERALLY MATCH THE WINDS WITH 2- 3 FEET.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MRR

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