Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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847 FXUS62 KILM 190516 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1215 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will migrate across the Southeast through the weekend shifting off the coast by early next week, bringing a warming trend and dry weather. A cold front will bring increasing rain chances late Monday into Tuesday. Slightly cooler temperatures will follow this front, but are expected to remain at or above seasonable levels.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 900 PM Thursday...Forecast is on track, although did allow for more radiational cooling adjacent to the deeper snow pack to our NW and N. Arctic cold remains across the Carolinas. Confluence aloft will drive the expansion of the surface high E/NE from the Gulf Coast, and this occurs in conjunction with WAA aloft as ridging blossoms from the SW. These two occurring together will cause the gradient to slacken, and winds will decouple to near calm tonight while backing to the W/SW. With a very dry airmass in place (PWATs around 0.2 inches) and light winds, good radiational cooling is expected. This produces widespread lows of 22-25 degrees, with subtly warmer temps expected on the immediate coast, and slightly cooler temps in the sheltered pocosin swampy areas. Temps will climb to more seasonable values on Friday as the high shifts to produce SW surface winds and continued WAA. There will continue to be an inversion just atop the relatively cooler shallow surface layer, so have again forecast on the cooler side of the guidance envelope for highs on Friday, but expect maximum temps to climb to 1-2 degrees either side of 55 beneath full sunshine. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...A cutoff mid level low will meander across the southeast through the period with little fanfare. In fact, it will serve to enhance a warmup for the region with a southwest flow. Still not anticipating any precipitation and few clouds although some mid and high level moisture may stream by late. Lows Saturday morning will be in the upper 20s inland to lower 30s along the coast. Saturday afternoon will see a warmup to sixty degrees and probably a little higher inland. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Mid/upper level trough axis will shift off the SE CONUS Sunday, along with associated mid-level cloudiness. This will set the stage for a period of above normal temps to continue through Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Moisture will begin to return in low-level southerly flow Monday, with the possibility of some showers advecting in off the ocean during the day. Consensus on timing of the frontal passage appears to be Tuesday morning, and that will coincide with the highest PoPs during the period. Models suggest there will be little cold air arriving immediately behind the front, with temperatures on Tuesday still rising to around 60. They will, however, drop back into the 50s for Thursday due to height falls and surface winds becoming more northerly. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 06Z...VFR conditions through the forecast period. Light and variable to near calm winds tonight will generally remain out of the W to SW picking up to 5 to 8 KT into this afternoon. Extended Outlook...VFR except for possible MVFR in scattered showers Monday into early Tuesday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 900 PM Thursday...Latest buoy observations show NW winds continuing, but with speeds easing to 10-15 kt. Wind direction will remain from the NW through tonight as high pressure expands eastward from the Gulf Coast, before gradually transitioning to the SW during Friday. As the high ridges towards the area, the gradient will initially relax allowing wind speeds to fall to around 10 kt overnight, before increasing back to 10-15 kt on Friday. Wave heights of 2-4 ft will gradually subside to 2-3 ft by Friday, with the 9 sec E/NE swell gradually decaying into Friday as a SW wind wave amplifies. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Expect a southwest flow of 10-15 knots across all waters through the period as high pressure resides to the south and the southern extension of a broad cyclonic flow to the north drive wind direction and speeds. Significant seas, lacking any stronger winds or robust swell components will be 2-4 feet. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Winds Sunday look to be light and variable as high pressure drifts across the waters. Weak southeasterly flow will begin Sunday night and increase to 15-20 knots by Tuesday night ahead of a cold front. Scattered showers will be possible Monday moving south to north, with increasing coverage along the cold front, which is expected to move off the coast Tuesday morning. An offshore wind after fropa on Tuesday looks to be relatively weak, generally 10 knots or less, in a relaxed gradient. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJD/JDW NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...CRM AVIATION...RGZ

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