Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 030526 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 126 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED SANS WAY UPSTREAM SO I HAVE DECREASED POPS DRAMATICALLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST THEN SHIFTS TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION. IT WOULD APPEAR THE CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY HAVE DIMINISHED DUE TO A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL CAUSE THJE STORM TRACK TO BEND TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THUS LEAVING ANY ORGANIZED CONVECIVE CLUSTERS TO THE NORTH ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND VERY FAR SOUTH AND WEST. HOWEVER MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM THURSDAY`S ACTIVITY WILL KEEP THE SCATTERED POPS IN PLAY. FOR TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE MET ONCE AGAIN HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON COOLER HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AND OPTED FOR THESE NUMBERS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH A BLEND FOR SATURDAY`S LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE USUAL SUSPECTS WILL BE IN PLAY AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION GOES...DIURNAL HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS LATTER FACTOR WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CYCLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EXACT TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES IS...AS ALWAYS...AN IFFY PROPOSITION...BUT A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS ONE SUCH SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...IN GENERAL...COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH. THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY MAY NEVER REACH INTO OUR LOCAL AREA IT MAY ACT TO SHIFT LEE SIDE TROUGH FARTHER EAST. THEREFORE SHOULD SEE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOL SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS FRONT IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL ACT TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS A BROAD CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO OPEN UP BY TUE AND FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BY TUE INTO WED BUT LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS AND MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO FOLLOW BY THU. OVERALL...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS AND THE SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGES FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL WILL MAKE THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE EACH DAY IN TERMS OF BEHAVIOR OF SEA BREEZE FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OVERALL POTENTIAL AND FOCUS OF CONVECTION. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. LATEST RADAR DEPICTS STRATIFORM RAIN PUSHING ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS...AND WHILE VFR PREVAILS...COULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 15 KTS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. AFTER DAYBREAK...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST ...WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...IT APPEARS THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JETTING IS ABATING RAPIDLY AS A TOUR OF THE LOCAL BUOYS SHOW A DECIDEDLY DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEEDS. WILL HANG ONTO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SEAS WILL REMAINED CHURNED UP FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. AS FOR TODAY WINDS REMAIN BENIGN THEN CRANK UP AGAIN TONIGHT. SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE SAME PROGRESSION DROPPING TO 2-4 FEET BY MIDDAY AND INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING A SW FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE THE GRADIENT GET PINCHED AT TIMES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH MIGRATES CLOSER TO THE COAST OR GETS ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...BUT OVERALL EXPECT A WEAKENING SFC FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP AND BACK SLIGHTLY IN SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING OUT 2 TO 4 FT BUT DROPPING DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS MON THROUGH TUE. A LONGER PERIOD SE SWELL UP TO 9 SEC WILL DOMINATE COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES DIMINISH. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-252-254. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...SGL

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