Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 190718 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 318 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... NORTH WINDS WILL BRING AN AUTUMN CHILL LASTING INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT OFF THE COAST AND NORTH WINDS ARE USHERING A CHANGE OF AIR EARLY THIS MORNING. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY HAS DROPPED OFF CONSIDERABLY AND TEMPERATURE CURVES WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND SUNRISE UNDER FULL EARLY SUNSHINE. AS LOW-LVL WARMING BEGINS TO UNFOLD UNDER COPIOUS SUN...PERKY AND ENERGETIC BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY PUNCH TO THE SURFACE... PRODUCING NORTH WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH IN THE MID AND LATE MORNING BEFORE WANING IN THE AFTERNOON TO NNW-NW 5 TO 10 MPH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 DEGREES EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC...A LITTLE MILDER SC INTERIOR AND A SMIDGEN COOLER OVER OUR NC INTERIOR ZONES AND 70-72 BEACHES. PICTURES FROM SPACE SHOW WE LIKELY WILL SEE SHEETS OF THIN CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD IN A SWIFT WEST TO EAST FLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HAVE HAVE MINIMAL TO NO IMPACT ON OUR WARMING CLIMB. A NIPPY ONE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES NEARLY OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FULL-BORE RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PROCEED. AS A RESULT A CRISP ONE MONDAY MORNING...WITH MINS IN THE UPPER 30S OVER INTERIOR COLD POCKETS OF SE NC...AND LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DAYBREAK MONDAY...OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY CLIMATE STANDARDS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A SUBTLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING WILL ALLOW A QUICK WARMUP FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS FROM 70-75 ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE WARMER VALUES SOUTH AND WEST. DEEP TROUGH DROPS DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND TIMING LAGS JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE. HIGHS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MONDAYS VALUES BUT 80 DEGREES WILL BE A STRETCH AND IS NOT EXPLICITLY IN THE FORECAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WITH THE MAIN THRUST OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING. NO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BEYOND THIS FOR NEXT WEEKEND A FLATTER MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE FRONT RANGES OF THE ROCKIES TO OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. POPS REMAIN A NO SHOW IN THE FORECAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A METHODICAL RISE FROM FROM 60S AND 40S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO 70S AND 50S SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 06Z...VFR. BROKEN CLOUDS 6-10K AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CLOUDS TO BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCATTERED SHORTLY AFTER 6Z AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. WINDS NORTH WITH GUSTS 12-18KT AFTER 13Z. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL AROUND 23Z. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...ADVISORY FLAGS FLAPPING A BRISK N WIND THIS MORNING ON THE WATERS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY BEFORE WINDS RELAX IN THE AFTERNOON. N 20-25 KT THROUGH NOON...HIGHEST SEAS OFFSHORE AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR 5-6 FEET. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATER TODAY AS WINDS TAIL OFF TO NE 5-10 KT LATE TNGT. LINGERING GONZALO SWELL WILL INTERACT WITH BUMPY N WIND-SEAS TO PRODUCE A PITCHY SEA STATE THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY MONDAY THEN QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY BUT REMAIN WEAK. SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS WITH THE STRONGER VORT TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE AND BY AROUND 0600 UTC WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FAVORING THE HIGHER VALUES LATE. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS. BEYOND THIS 10-15 KNOTS WILL SUFFICE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY DROPPING SOMEWHAT THURSDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MJC/MRR

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