Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 270128 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 928 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING SHARP COOLING TO THE CAROLINAS INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING REMAINS POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO MID-WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 928 PM THURSDAY...A BALMY LULL CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. PCPN HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP COINCIDENT WITH SPIKING PRECIPITABLE WATER AFTER 6Z/2AM AND ARRIVAL OF SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VAPOR ANIMATIONS THIS EVENING SHOW ONE OF THESE IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA PRESENTLY. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED TSTMS REMAINS THE EXPECTATION INTO EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS NE SC AND SE NC. ADDITIONALLY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT TO FURTHER AID IN SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE. MINIMUM TEMPS INTO DAYBREAK FRIDAY WILL REMAIN MILD...LIKELY DROPPING ONLY ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS WHEN RAIN-COOLED AIR SETS IN. LOW TO MIDDLE 60S LOOKS GOOD TO HOLD ONTO INTO THE PRE- DAWN AND DAYBREAK HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. FRONT SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF MIDDAY AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY EVENING. A VORT SWINGING THROUGH AT H5 MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE NIGHT LAGS THE MOISTURE. SHOULD THE MOISTURE HOLD ON LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST OR SHOULD THE COLD AIR ARRIVE SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...PARTS OF THE AREA COULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN IF IT DOES SNOW...THE WARM GROUND SHOULD MELT IT VERY QUICKLY. MAXIMUMS FRIDAY OF 60 TO 65 WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT YIELDING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BUT THE EXACT NUMBERS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH WIND WE HAVE OVERNIGHT. SHOULD THE WIND REMAIN UP...FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE REACHED. SHOULD THE WIND FALL OUT MORE THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...A SIGNIFICANT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A FREEZE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECAST UPDATES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO MORE PROGRESSIVE DURING THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD SUN MORNING WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING SUN NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT ALOFT FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A NARROW RIBBON OF INCREASED MOISTURE AS IT PASSES LATE MON BUT THE FRONT LACKS DYNAMICS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CONVERGENCE SHOWER OR TWO BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA SEEMS UNLIKELY. PLAN TO ADD A SLIGHT CHC POP MON/MON NIGHT BUT WILL KEEP NUMBERS CAPPED AT 20. FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE AND WED WITH MODIFYING HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE AREA. DEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY CLOUD FREE AND VOID OF PRECIP INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FRONT EVENTUALLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. HAVE ADDED SILENT POP FOR LATE WED NIGHT AND ON THU GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WARM SECTOR CONVECTION THU AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO SUN THROUGH TUE WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO WED AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THU. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...PATCHY -RA IS MOVING NE ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING. TERMINALS ARE VFR...EXCEPT AT KCRE VSBYS HAVE FLIRTED WITH MVFR AT TIMES AND SOME LIFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED DUE TO RAIN FALLING INTO A COOL MOIST MARINE AIRMASS MOVING ONSHORE. DO NOT THINK THIS IS A GOOD SEA FOG SETUP IN THAT DEWPOINTS ARE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN WATER TEMPERATURES. BUT AS LONG AS -RA IS FALLING INTO THE MARINE AIRMASS THINK WORSE CASE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KCRE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH INCREASING CHANCES LATER THIS EVENING FOR MVFR/IFR AS RAIN INCREASES. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GO DOWNHILL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT POTENT COLD FRONT APPROACHES...ACCOMPANIED BY A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. WITH INCREASINGLY DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH THE ATM COLUMN...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT... BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BY DAYBREAK FRI. IFR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER ACROSS ALL TERMINALS DURING PRE-DAWN HOURS INTO FRI MORNING. FROPA SHOULD OCCUR AT THE INLAND TERMINALS 14-15Z...17-18Z FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. POST FRONTAL...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH IFR IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 928 PM THURSDAY...WINDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE 0-20NM WATERS ARE BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT SEAS IN ADVISORY TO CAUTIONARY RANGE ARE STILL IN PLACE...4-6 FT NC AND 3-5 FT SC WATERS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE A GREAT DEAL OVERNIGHT BUT PERHAPS ANOTHER 5-8 KT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BUT THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ALREADY ELEVATED SEAS. THUS THE ADVISORIES AND CAUTION HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO FRIDAY. SEAS MAINLY S WAVES 3-6 FEET EVERY 7-8 SECONDS. TSTMS MAY POSE AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD INTO EARLY FRIDAY AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY...SHIFTING THE WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO RESIDUAL HIGHER SEAS FROM THE PREFRONTAL FLOW. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KNOTS. THIS WILL PERSIST FOR SOME TIME AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM 4 TO 6 FT FRIDAY MORNING TO 2 TO 3 FT BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING OVER THE WATERS SUN WILL MOVE EAST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. APPROACH OF COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER MON/MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A BUMP IN SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE DAY. GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT SPEEDS COULD APPROACH 20 KT FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. LACK OF COLD ADVECTION AND PINCHED GRADIENT FOLLOWING FROPA WILL KEEP OFFSHORE FLOW 15 KT OR LESS LATE MON NIGHT AND UNDER 10 KT ON TUE. CURRENTLY APPEARS ONLY POTENTIAL FOR HEADLINES WOULD BE DURING BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW MON BUT LIMITED DURATION OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS IS LIKELY TO KEEP SEAS UNDER 6 FT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...8 NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...XXXI LONG TERM...III AVIATION...MRR

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