Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 010235 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1035 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL SLOWLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY...THEN REMAIN NEARBY NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT WILL HELP VEER OUR WINDS SOUTHERLY. OTHERWISE THE AIRMASS REMAINS ALMOST EXACTLY THE SAME AS THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS: WARM BUT NOT PARTICULARLY HUMID. PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES IS VERY NEAR THE 50TH PERCENTILE FOR THE END OF MAY. I HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TONIGHT: CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS 65-70. AT SOUTH-FACING BEACHES I BUMPED UP FORECAST LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE ONSHORE WIND. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...THE SLUGGISHNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER ATLANTIC RIDGE IS VERY RELUCTANT TO GIVE UP GROUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CUTOFF ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR N. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE A PUSH TO THE SE AND S...AND IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE TO OUR N AND NW WED MORNING. THE NAM IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS WITH THIS FRONT...BUT THE MORE RELIABLE MODELS DO NOT BRING THE FRONT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST DO NOT CLIP THE AREA AS THE LOW APPEARS TO GET CUTOFF TOO FAR TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...WE MAY BEGIN TO GET BRUSHED BY SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING TUE AND TUE NIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...VERY MODEST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NO LONGER SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SURGE UNTIL TUE...WHEN THE GULF OF MEXICO TAP BLEEDS FURTHER EAST. THEREFORE...GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT...LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR MON...BELOW THRESHOLD ALONG THE COAST...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE SEABREEZE...TO SLIGHT CHANCE INLAND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WHERE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY SURVIVE AS FAR EAST AS A BBP TO FLO LINE AND WILL SHOW LOW CHANCE HERE. TUE...WILL DOUBLE POPS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WHERE THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE WILL NUDGE POPS UP TO CHANCE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE HIGHS AND LOWS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS INLAND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS ROUND 90 MON AFTERNOON. COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE SEABREEZE. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S...AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND APPEARS TO MAKE A MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATER SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND FIND A HOME OFF THE COAST THROUGH ESSENTIALLY THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE...LIKELY POPS OCCURRING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FORCING WEAKENS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BUT UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND MESOSCALE FEATURES STILL WARRANT CHANCE POPS WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL RANGE. TEMPERATURES ARE VERY NEAR CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN WARMUP A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND AS CONVECTION BECOMES MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE A LITTLE MVFR FOG AT INLAND SITES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE SUNRISE...BASED THE LITTLE THERE WAS LAST NIGHT. S TO SE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT SHOULD FALL OFF TO LT 5 KT AND BECOME VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. AFT 14Z...WINDS WILL BECOME S TO SE AT 8 TO 10 KT AT ALL TERMINALS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT INLAND SITES AFT 19Z OR SO BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO VCSH IS FORECAST TO SHOW CONVECTION COULD BE IN THE VCNTY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY MORNING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...AFTER REMAINING STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS THE LARGE HIGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS MOVING EASTWARD. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF OHIO ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT WILL HELP VEER OUR WIND DIRECTIONS AROUND TO THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WITH NO REAL CHANGE IN WIND SPEED. THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH A LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. 10 PM BUOY REPORTS SHOW 3 FEET INSIDE 20 MILES...AND 4 FEET OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY OFFSHORE. LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SEAWARD AND THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NW AND N. THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE UPSTREAM OF THE WATERS WED MORNING. THE FLOW THIS PERIOD WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SSE AND S MON AND THEN S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS... HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVE. GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING SWELL ENERGY SLOWLY ABATING THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HAS BEEN UNDER-FORECASTING THE 9 TO 11 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL IN THE NEAR TERM. WILL SHOW SEAS SUBSIDING ABOUT A FOOT THROUGH THE DAY MON...BUT AT A SLOWER PACE GIVEN THE SWELL WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO DECAY THAN MODELS ARE INDICATING. SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT MON...2 TO 3 FT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY VIA THE FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE. A VERY GRADUAL SHIFT TO EAST THEN NORTHEAST WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH. THE FRONT THEN WEAKENS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TO THE WINDS. WIND SPEEDS HOVER AROUND TEN KNOTS OR SO. SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE MOSTLY 1-3 FEET WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A FEW FOUR FOOTERS SNEAKING IN THE ZONES FRIDAY VIA A MORE ROBUST SWELL COMPONENT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...RAN

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