Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 191736 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 136 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL IN THE MIX THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE IS EVIDENT IN VAPOR ANIMATIONS THIS AFTERNOON APPROACHING OUR INTERIOR ZONES WEST OF I-95. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME A PLAYER IN OUR LOCAL WEATHER OVER SE NC AND NE SC AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD INTO PEAK DIURNAL SURFACE HEATING. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY A MODERATE MID-LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL STEER STORMS TOWARD THE EAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH...UPPING THE ANTE FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...LIKE THE 68 MPH REPORTED AT THE TOPSAIL BEACH FIRE DEPT YESTERDAY EVENING. SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS IMPULSE HAS ERODEED AND AGITATED CUMULUS COVERS THE AREA. VISIBLE SPECTRUM CONFIRMS ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING IS LIKELY TO ELEVATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ENERGY. MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND 1 INCH HAIL WITH STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTN/EVENING. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF 90-96 ACROSS THE INLAND FORECAST AREA LOOKS ON TARGET...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES AND IMMEDIATE ICW LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY STILL EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM...AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF N/NW WINDS BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL START WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO TEMPERATURES SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS AHEAD OF IT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE 90S EVEN TO THE BEACHES THANKS TO W/NW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE PINNING THE SEA BREEZE. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY SIMPLY DUE TO THE HIGH INSTABILITY CAUSED BY THE HEAT/HUMIDITY...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ABOVE 700MB WILL LIMIT COVERAGE...AND ONLY SCHC POP IS WARRANTED. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE STRONGLY DIURNALLY FORCED...AND THUS WILL WANE AFTER DARK...LEAVING A WARM BUT CLEAR NIGHT WITH MINS ONLY IN THE MID 70S...UPR 70S AT THE BEACHES. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD MID 90S LIKELY...WITH SOME LOW 90S AT THE BEACHES AND UPR 90S ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH DEWPOINT VALUES WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON THURSDAY THOUGH...AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND MIGRATES TO THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR A TROUGH TO DEVELOP AND DIVE DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A FAST OUTLIER...BUT LOWERING HEIGHTS THURSDAY EVE COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTN AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THIS AGREES WELL WITH INHERITED AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ELEVATED...FALLING TO A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 75. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPANSIVE RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE MS VLY AND BLOOM NORTHEAST...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH DIVES ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS CREATES A COOLING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE TRANSITIONAL PERIOD...FRI/SAT...LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO POP WARRANTED AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS INTO AN OTHERWISE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS FRIDAY...AND THEN ONLY SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WITH UPPER IMPULSES CRESTING THE TROUGH AND RACING TOWARDS THE AREA ON NW FLOW...AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TEMPORALLY OR SPATIALLY THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS...OTHER THAN SUGGESTING A DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. BY SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH...LEAVING COOLER BUT DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 18Z...COULD BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE WITH REGARD TO THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOLID CAPES WILL BE SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT COUPLED WITH A VORT MAX THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND 20-23Z WILL FIRE THINGS UP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE FOCUSED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...IT`S ENHANCEMENT QUITE NOTICEABLE LAST NIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PWAT`S WILL ENSURE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR THINGS TO CALM DOWN BY 02-03Z. SOME FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING...AS WELL AS A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. WEDNESDAY...SHOULD BE DRYING OUT A BIT AS THE DEEP MOISTURE IS NOT AS PREVALENT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...STALLED BOUNDARY LYING EAST-WEST...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL YIELD SW-WSW WINDS AT 15 KT THIS PERIOD. THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY ADD AN ADDITIONAL 5 KT AND/OR GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KT TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SEA SPECTRUM WITH ESE 1-1.5 FT WAVES EVERY 9 SECOND. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF W/NW WINDS WILL START WEDNESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT THESE WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO A SW DIRECTION THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER WEAK HOWEVER...SO WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS MOST OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT FIRST THING WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL FALL TO 1-2 FT MOST OF THE SHORT TERM BEFORE A SLIGHT INCREASE WITH THE HIGHER WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS THE WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY...CAUSING A WIND SHIFT FROM S/SW AT 5-10 KTS...TO N/NE AT 5-10 KTS...BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR FIRST ACROSS AMZ250...AND THEN DROP S/SW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND BY SATURDAY MORNING ALL WATERS WILL BE EXPERIENCING LIGHT N/NE WINDS. A SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN PUSH WIND SPEEDS UP TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY...REMAINING FROM THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS FRIDAY WILL BE OF LOW AMPLITUDE...1-2 FT...BUT A CONFUSED SPECTRUM WILL DEVELOP AS THE WIND SHIFT OCCURS. SEAS WILL BUILD SLOWLY ON SATURDAY TO 2-3 FT WITH A NE WIND CHOP BECOMING PREDOMINANT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...COLBY SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DL/8

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