Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS62 KILM 062247
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
548 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016
Weak high pressure will build in behind exiting storm system
through tonight. Dry and seasonable weather can be expected
Wednesday and Thursday ahead of another cold front. Bone
chilling cold air associated with an Arctic High, will bring
sub-freezing temperatures deep in the 20s Saturday morning. A
warming trend however will get underway early next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 311 PM Tuesday...7 micron water vapor band reveals
dramatic mid-level drying occurring into the eastern Carolinas
with rain now essentially curtailed and sea-bound. Scouring
entirely the resident cloud cover remains a separate dynamic
requiring into Wednesday to see fruition. Partial clearing
however can likely be inferred through the visible band from WSW
to ENE into the evening. The muddiness, peeks of stars, and
non-agressive winds could prompt a pocket or bank of mist and
fog to form overnight. Minimums will bottom out at sunrise,
41-49, coolest over the far SE NC interior and mildest along the
Georgetown county coast.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 312 PM Tuesday...Primary headliners this period is a debut
of sunshine Wednesday as weak high pressure moves in, and the
onset of an Arctic air intrusion late Thursday. Isolated showers
Thursday may preceded the cold but QPF expectations are nil to
few hundredths. Coldest portion of this time period daybreak
Friday 30-35. The mildest part of this period where readings
will reach 60-65, both WED/THU aftn. Expect breezy conditions
late Thursday as cold air races in.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...The Carolinas will be experiencing bone
chilling temperatures and the coldest temps since last winter as
a deep N-NW flow carries arctic air into the region behind
exiting cold front. CAA will continue through Fri with GFS
showing 850 temps bottoming out around -6c through Fri night.
Any clouds on Fri will clear out with temps reaching just over
40 for a max temp. Gusty NW winds will make it feel even colder.
The dewpoint temps will be down in the teens most places early
Saturday but temps should hold in the 20s most places for a low
in continued CAA in lighter NW winds overnight Fri.
Temps will remain well below normal through much of the weekend,
even with plenty of sunshine, as the high pressure moves east
settling nearly overhead Sat night before exiting off the Mid
Atlantic coast on Sunday. Overall expect the air mass to modify
slowly with temps reaching back up toward normal by Sun and
returning above normal Mon as winds shift around to the SE and
eventually southerly. Increasing southerly return flow will
develop ahead of next cold front on Monday bringing warmer and
moister air into the area. Max temps should be back well into
the 60s on Mon. This next front should move through by Mon
night with increasing clouds and chc of pcp through Monday ahead
of the front. Expect drier and cooler high pressure behind
exiting cold front on Tues. Temps a good 10 to 15 degrees below
normal over the weekend will swing back up to 5 to 10 degrees
above normal on Monday.
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 00Z...Conditions will be predominately IFR initially. There
will be mixing with falling dewpoints, however there should be
enough low level moisture to keep the fog/stratus going through much
of the overnight hours. Temps will likely fall in lockstep with
dewpoints, with some separation after midnight. Gusty west winds
will become northwest, continuing into Wednesday.
Extended Outlook...Fog possible Wednesday night. VFR
conditions expected to prevail late week through this weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 311 PM Tuesday...Treacherous marine conditions prevail at
this time through early Wednesday. Frying Pan 7 feet at 6
seconds, very steep, gusting to 26 knots/30 mph. Closer to shore
5-6 foot pitching waves. Small Craft Advisory flags to remain
flapping through the overnight period. Stiff west winds tonight
will turn NW, and both directions may impose 25-30 KT gusts.
Offshore navigation tonight is discouraged. The ICW can expect
gusty crosswinds. Low tide early this evening and again right
around sunrise on Wednesday.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 311 PM Tuesday...Main headliner this period is a brief
window of manageable marine conditions on Wednesday with lower
sea heights and less wind trending. Even much of Thursday offers
opportunity but by mid to late afternoon, the leading edge of
an Arctic High will crank up NW-N winds in a hurry and by
Thursday night the ocean will become perilous again. Expect
deteriorating marine conditions late Thursday afternoon and
Advisory conditions all of Thursday night.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...Expect gusty NW winds up to 30 kts in
strong caa behind arctic front Fri morning. The strong off shore
flow will keep highest seas off shore up to 6 to 7 ft early
Fri. Overall expect SCA conditions through most of Friday as
winds and seas diminish through Friday as high pressure builds
eastward. The winds and seas may spike up again as the cold air
rushes over the relatively warmer air overnight Fri, but overall
expect winds will diminish as they veer around through the
weekend become northerly Fri night into Sat and NE to E by
Sunday as high pressure moves further east. Seas will diminish
as well through the weekend as the high pressure shifts closer
overhead Sat night and then off the Mid Atlantic coast on
Sunday. Seas 3-5 ft by Friday aftn will be down less than 2 ft
by Sun morning by twill begin a rising trend late Sun as winds
become more on shore.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for AMZ250-252-