Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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151 FXUS62 KILM 290636 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 236 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to bring oppressive heat and humidity to the region through Saturday. The high will begin to break down over the weekend leading to increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday and continuing through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 240 AM Friday...Only a small decrease in temperatures today as the high pressure ridge remains to the south and a Piedmont trough continues to the west. The 850 mb temperatures dropped to 18 to 19 degrees Celsius today. At the surface high temperatures are expected to range between 94 to 97 degrees with lower 90s at the beaches. Combined with the humidity, the heat indices will range between 103 and 104F. There is a very small increase in chance of an afternoon and evening thunderstorm. The focus areas will be along the resultant sea-breeze front mainly over southeast North Carolina and inland areas mainly north of a Florence to Whiteville line. Chance will be only 20%.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 240 AM Friday...The bad news is on Saturday and Sunday the 850 temperatures creep up to 20 degrees Celsius so expect to see heat advisories reposted for the forecast area for Saturday and Sunday. The good news is that the Piedmont trough is forecast to shift closer to the coast and chance for convection increases with some needed rain and may temper some of the heat. By Sunday night the models stall a frontal boundary over north central North Carolina late sunday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 240 AM Friday...The extended period will feature a decent mid level trough that moves across the east coast by Wednesday. The associated cold front will make it to the area and basically dissipate. Overall the best combination of higher PW and synoptic forcing occurs Monday and Tuesday. Have continued to carry high chance to likely pops for these days. Much drier air at the mid levels sinks into the area Wednesday but low levels are mostly unchanged, therefore continued with much lower pops but there could still be some coverage. WPC days 4-5 QPF shows decent amounts for Monday and Tuesday. Temperature forecast cools slowly through the period from well above seasonal normals Monday to near average by Thursday.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 06Z...The aviation community can expect VFR conditions through the period. Winds should remain elevated sufficiently through the morning hours to preclude even MVFR BR. The GFS has sea breeze convection later today but opted to keep it out of the forecast for now as the recovery from such unfavorable profiles seems fast. 12z issuance will want to see how the high resolution cycles are trending. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered afternoon convection Sunday and onward through the forecast will create fleeting and localized MVFR/IFR. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 240 AM Friday...Southwest winds will continue as the Bermuda high ridge remains to the south of the coastal waters. The nocturnal low-level jet will weaken during the day and the winds of 15 to 20 knots over the waters before sunrise today. This will result in the surface winds falling to 10 to 15 knots during the day. Seas will continue to run 2 to 3 ft with 4 ft seas especially 10 miles off the coast. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 AM Friday...The synoptic pressure pattern has changed little through this period. The only slight change is the Piedmont trough shifts a little closer to the coast and winds will be around 10 to 15 knots as pressure gradient weakens a tad. Late on Sunday a cold front will move into the central sections of North Carolina and a low-level jet develops overnight and winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots. Seas will fluctuate between 2 to 4 feet through the period. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 240 AM Friday...Southwest winds of 10-15 knots will continue across the waters Monday and Tuesday. A front will be crawling toward the area late Tuesday but indications are the brief wind shift will be just after this valid time period. Significant seas will be 1-3 feet.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...DRH LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SHK M

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