Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 292323 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 723 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BRING WARM LATE SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...ALONG WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST NEXT WEEK...INCREASING LOCAL RAIN CHANCES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 600 PM FRIDAY...UPDATED POPS AND SKIES ACROSS THE FA MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...AND EXTRAPOLATED WESTWARD ACROSS THE FA THROUGH 9 PM. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE PRODUCING SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH EVEN ISOLATED SHRA VIA LATEST KLTX 88D AND SAT IMAGERY. THE CLOUDS AND PCPN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FA MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND SHOULD SEE A QUICK DECLINE OF PCPN AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BY/AFTER SUNSET. NO LIGHTNING DATA THUS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.............................................. AS OF 214 PM FRIDAY...THE FRONT HAS MOVED TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AND THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE 925 MB THETA-E GRADIENT AND THE LATEST BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER CONFIRMS THE BEST MOISTURE IS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE 14 UTC HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A LUMBERTON TO BURGAW LINE SO HAVE ADDED A 20 PERCENT POP IF THE DEEPER MOISTURE DOES SNEAK FARTHER SOUTH BY THE END OF THE DAY. CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 70. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 214 PM FRIDAY...A FAIR WEATHER LABOR WEEKEND ON TAP WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO ACCOMPANY AN OVERALL DRYISH COLUMN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING AND MOISTURE RETURN TO POP A FEW SHOWERS OR A STORM BRIEFLY ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG AND NEAR THE SEA BREEZE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...WITH CHANCES LOOKING SLIGHTLY BETTER SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS PRESENTLY ACROSS THE REGION ARE NOT ADVECTING MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE SEA AND MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST AND COASTAL INTERIOR. PATCHES OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR COOL POCKETS OR PROTECTED COASTAL LOCATIONS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY WITH NO FOG ISSUES TO START SAT. MAXIMUMS SAT/SUN LOW/MID 90S WEST OF I-95 AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FARTHER EAST...MINIMUMS SUN/MON MORNING GENERALLY 70-76 AND MILDEST NEAR THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 214 PM FRIDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIP FARTHER SOUTH AS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING AS A VERY BROAD RIDGE TAKES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH A VERY BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS PIEDMONT TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE THROUGH THE ALMOST ZONAL FLOW ON MONDAY ENHANCING CONVECTION MON AFTN AND A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL CARRY THESE SHWRS/TSTMS TOWARD THE COAST. THE PCP WATER REACHES UP ABOVE 2 INCHES MON NIGHT INTO TUES AFTN. A DEEPER DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE IN BEHIND SHORTWAVE LATE TUES WITH PCP WATER VALUES DROPPING TO 1.75 INCHES. OVERALL WILL SEE A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPS RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCED BY SOME PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT...ESPECIALLY MON INTO TUES. DEWPOINT TEMPS UP ABOVE 70 WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH CLOSE TO 90 ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE MID 90S INLAND. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT. CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT...PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z AS LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS BECOME CALM. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR VSBYS AT KLBT BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS AND LOCAL CLIMO. KFLO WILL LIKELY ALSO SEE AT LEAST TEMPO IFR BEFORE 12Z. WILL MAINTAIN MVFR VSBYS AT THE COASTAL TERMS...ALTHOUGH TEMPO IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR FOG-PRONE KCRE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13-14Z SAT. THEN VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT. NO MENTION OF PCPN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTN. BUT OVERALL...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 615 PM FRIDAY...ONLY CHANGE TO THE FCST TONIGHT WAS TO INCLUDE A SE-S WIND DIRECTION BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST PROGGED SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT FOR TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS AROUND 2 FT...EXCEPT INCLUDED 3 FT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD AND INCLUDED 3 FT OUTER WATERS FROM OFF THE MOUTH OF WINYAH BAY. SIG. SEAS MAINLY A RESULT OF AN 8-9 SECOND PERIOD EASTERLY GROUND SWELL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................. AS OF 214 PM FRIDAY...CURRENTLY SEEING THE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION ON THE NEAR SHORE BUOYS AND RADAR. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BUOYS ARE SHOWING A 2 FOOT DOMINANT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON WILL AS SE SWELL MIXED IN. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET UNTIL MORNING. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 214 PM FRIDAY...A GOOD WEEKEND ON THE WATERS WEATHER-WISE AS MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET IN AN EVOLVING AND BUILDING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN. SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT SAT WILL BECOME S 10 TO 15 KT SUNDAY...WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FORMING INLAND TO SHARPEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY. SEAS 2 - 2.5 FT EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 2 FT AT 8-9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 1 FOOT EVERY 4 SECONDS. ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND FAVORED LATE NIGHT AND THROUGH EARLY MORNING. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 214 PM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH OFF SHORE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. THE FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTN. THE WEAK SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL KEEP SEAS 1 TO 3 FT WITH A SLIGHT CHOP EACH AFTN. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC/DRH NEAR TERM...DCH/DRH SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...BJR

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.