Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 281912 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 312 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHARP COOLING WILL INVADE THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE...FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS BY NEXT TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST...ENSURING DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL WORK TO KEEP THE MID LEVELS DRY AND THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ABOVE 300 MB LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY MATERIALIZE AS A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS BUT ANY THAT FORMS WOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO WED. THIS WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS FROM DROPPING TO ZERO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND VERTICAL PROFILE DATA SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. NOT ONLY WILL THIS PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT IT WILL ALSO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. INSTEAD THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE A STRATUS DECK...WHICH WILL HELP HOLD LOWS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...2 MAIN WEATHER HEADLINES THIS PERIOD...FIRST A SHOT AT CRACKING A FEW RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. LOCATION WED OCT 29 WILMINGTON 82 1984 FLORENCE 84/1974 N. MYRTLE BEACH 83/1991 SECONDLY A SHOT AT MEASURABLE RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY THURSDAY...WITH MEASURABLE PCPN NOT SEEN SINCE OCTOBER 15TH IN A BIT OF A DRY STRETCH. CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LIKELIHOOD OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER WEDNESDAY SO SURFACE HEATING SHOULD AID IN NOTABLE TEMPERATURE BOOSTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A MILD OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT WILL RAISE THE STARTING MIN TEMP POINTS TO BOOT. WHILE IT APPEARS QPF POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED IN SCOPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE...A WINDOW OF SPIKED COLUMN MOISTURE BETWEEN 03Z-09Z/11PM-5AM SHOULD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO TRANSIT THE FORECAST ARA WED NIGHT. 10-15 DEGREE COOLER MAX TEMP VALUES THU COMPARED TO WED.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH HALLOWEEN WILL HAVE RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER...AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST ON FRI WITH WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. WINDS WILL BACK THROUGH THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND SKIES SHOULD HOLD OUT MAINTAINING SUNSHINE MOST OF THE DAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRI WITH TEMPS JUST DROPPING BELOW 60 FOR TRICK OR TREATING FRI EVENING UNDER LIGHT NW WINDS. A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS MID TO UPPER TROUGH ON SAT WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING RIGHT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT AFTN. H5 HEIGHTS BELOW 550 DEM SAT AFTN WITH STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND MAY WRING OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ON SAT AFTN INTO EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ONCE THIS LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST SAT AFTN...DEEP VERY COOL AND STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE INTENSE CAA WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP OFF SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY WITH 850 TEMPS REACHING CLOSER TO 0C BY SUN MORNING. WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WITH TEMPS NOT ABLE TO RECOVER MUCH ON SAT BEFORE CLOUDS AND COLDER AIR COMES AND BY SUNDAY CAA WILL BE IN FULL FORCE. TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S MOST PLACES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW 40 MOST PLACES AND COOL NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL AS IF TEMPS WERE CLOSER TO FREEZING EARLY SUN MORNING. BY MON MORNING MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND EXPECT CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR FROST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MON MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE ALIGNS ITSELF ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP. MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP THE FROM THE GULF MON INTO TUES WITH H5 HEIGHTS RISING UP TO 585 DEM. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS BACK UP TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY LATE MON INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RETREATING...BUT STILL GIVING US STABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG EXPECTED...HOWEVER WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAIN ELEVATED COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...SO IT MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS SITUATION...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY AROUND 14Z...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. VFR FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING. VFR AND BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER EAST THE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED. THIS...COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 15 KT LATE TONIGHT. GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS FROM 1 TO 2 FT THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WED WILL TRANSITION TO NORTH AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CAUTION STATEMENT OR EVEN A BRIEF ADVISORY CANNOT BE RULED OUT THURSDAY...BUT IT WOULD BE ONLY FOR 20-25 KT GUSTS FROM THE NORTH AS SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FT OR LESS IN THE BRISK OFFSHORE WIND FLOW. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY NEAR AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT WORKS S AND E OF OUR WATERS. SEA SPECTRUM TO FEATURE AMBIENT SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND SSW CHOP WED CHANGING TO A STRONGER N CHOP THU. SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FEET...EXCEPT PLENTY 2 FT SE4AS INSHORE WED. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING MID TO UPPER LOW. THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO BACK FROM N/NW ON FRI REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. BY SATURDAY THIS DEEP LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND AND A DEEP STRONG NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT VERY GUSTY NW WINDS ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY. THIS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SURGE WILL BRING SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI INTO EARLY SATURDAY RAPIDLY UP TO 6 FT IN OUTER WATERS BY SAT AFTN. MAY SEE SOME 7 FTERS LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONG OFF SHORE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS CLOSER TO SHORE MUCH LOWER WITH GREATEST SEAS OUT BEYOND 15 NM. AS CAA BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN AND GRADIENT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL VEER AND WEAKEN AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY SUN NIGHT SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE N-NE 10 TO 20 KTS IN A WELL MIXED MARINE LAYER SUN NIGHT.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DL/III

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