Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 300724 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 324 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL LINGER IN THE AREA TODAY AS MEANDERING WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING MONDAY. BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXPAND WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW UPPER TROUGH TO DIG ALONG THE EAST COAST. FOR TODAY...MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE DOES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOP 2.25 INCHES. THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN A LITTLE DRIER INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TWO MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...THE SEABREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOULD SERVE TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT WITH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WE WOULD EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO PEAK DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN WANE MID AND LATE EVE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY BE VERY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY 12Z FRI. MODEL PROFILES SHOW COLUMNAR MOISTURE DEEPENING INLAND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF THE FRONT AS IT RELATES TO ITS ABILITY TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION...WILL SHOW POPS TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE EVE. WILL CAP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE RANGE OF 100 TO 104 DEGREES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA AT THE START OF PERIOD WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST...LINGERING IN THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. FRONT ARRIVES WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BUT TIMING IS RATHER EARLY AS FAR AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS CONCERNED. FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE BRIEFLY STALL IN THE AREA FRI AND IT SHOULD ONLY BE A MATTER OF WAITING UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE HEATING CAN GENERATE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...LEADING TO CONVECTION. PREVIOUSLY IT APPEARED THE DEEPER MOISTURE WOULD LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO SAT BUT WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN THE RATE AT WHICH DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST MOVES INTO THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOW SHOW DRY AIR MOVING OVER WESTERN COUNTIES BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FRI AND TO THE COAST BY SAT MORNING. THE DROP IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IS RATHER SIGNIFICANT WITH VALUES DROPPING FROM OVER 2 INCHES FRI MORNING TO AROUND 1.5 INCH LATE FRI NIGHT OR EARLY SAT. IF THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS CORRECT THERE MAY BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF I-95. THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR SAT ALONG WITH A LACK OF ANY MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND ONLY A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE ALSO PUTS HEFTY PRECIP CHANCES SAT IN DOUBT. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC POP BUT DID TREND VALUES DOWN A LITTLE BIT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...DISSIPATING FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SLOWLY BECOMING A WASHED OUT SURFACE TROUGH BY TUE/WED. THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL DETERMINE HOW UNSETTLED NEXT WEEKS WEATHER IS. BY SUN MORNING FAIRLY BROAD 5H TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EAST COAST. THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS HOW CLOSE WILL THE TROUGH AXIS BE TO THE COAST. THIS WILL DETERMINE IF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA OR OFF THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND THE ENSEMBLES DO NOT PROVIDE A CLEAR PICTURE IT SEEMS THE TRENDS ARE TO SHIFT THE DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE COAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SOME DRYING FOR NEXT WEEK AND A REDUCTION IN PRECIP CHANCES. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO LINGER CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC POP DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. TROUGH LIFTS OUT EARLY TUE...ALLOWING THE 5H RIDGE TO THE WEST AN OPPORTUNITY TO EXPAND EAST. THIS WILL HAPPEN GRADUALLY AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH LITTLE FORCING. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POP FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...MAINLY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH BUT INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES AS THE PERIOD ENDS. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO TUE/WED AS SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING EXPAND AND SUBSIDENCE STARTS TO DEVELOP.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 06Z...STILL MAINTAINING A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH CHANCE OF MVFR ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINAL KLBT AND KFLO AFTER 09Z AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THESE TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z-15Z.WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BE SQUEEZED TO THE NE AS ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM WEST AND INCREASES CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS AFTER 20Z WITH ACTIVITY SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY TO THE COAST AFTER 03Z. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR NOW AS PROBABILITY IS LOW AND ACTIVITY IS NOT WIDESPREAD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FEATURES...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED INLAND WITH A SEABREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOPING IN BETWEEN. LATE TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS. E TO SE WINDS TODAY WILL VEER TO SW AND WSW AS THE FRONT NEARS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT TODAY AND UP TO 4 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGHOUT. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST FRI THEN PUSH INLAND SAT AS IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW FRI MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AS WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. BY SAT BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE ON ITS WAY TO REESTABLISHING ITSELF...RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT FRI INTO SAT BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN 10 TO 15 KT SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEARSHORE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 4 FT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE AND FULL MOON WHICH OCCURS ON JULY 31. DEPARTURES OF PLUS 1/2 TO 1 FOOT MLLW WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. HOWEVER...THIS CYCLE...EVEN THE BEACHES HAVE A SMALL RISK. HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IS ABOUT 730 PM AT THE BEACHES AND ABOUT 10 PM IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IF COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...RJD/MAC TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.