Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 230733 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 333 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER LATER IN THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 3:30 AM SATURDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...LIKELY BRIEFLY BECOMING HUNG UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE PUSHING MORE DEFINITIVELY SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WE CAN STILL COUNT ON ANOTHER HOT DAY THOUGH...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID 90S UP NORTH TO 103 DOWN SOUTH...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION AS INDICATED BY THICKNESS PACKING WILL LAG FRONT BY A GOOD BIT. DO NOT EXPECT COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRYER AIR TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN A NOTCH. A REASONABLY MOIST COLUMN COMBINED WITH FROPA...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND OTHER RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL KICK OFF STRONGER ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. TIMING OF THESE EVENTS IS UNCERTAIN. A WEAK IMPULSE IS ENTERING THE CWA FROM THE NW AT THIS TIME...BUT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WE HAVE AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION...AND THE ACTIVITY IS FADING. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE IN LATE THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DRYER AIR WILL ALSO LAG FROPA. KEEPING IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS A RESULT...BUT WITH ONLY MINIMAL QPF.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...RIDGE BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BUILDS EASTWARD WITH TIME. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. OVERALL MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH PCP WATER VALUES DROPPING FROM CLOSE TO 2 INCHES EARLY SUNDAY DOWN TO 1.25 BY SUN NIGHT AND LESS THAN AN INCH BY MONDAY MORNING. MAY FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY LATE SUMMER SUNSHINE...WITH TEMPS REACHING BELOW NORMAL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. ANY CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY WILL DISSIPATE AS DEWPOINT TEMPS DROP FROM NEAR 70 DOWN TO NEAR 60 BY MONDAY MORNING. THESE LOWER DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUED COOL AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS AND UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD. THE COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE OFFSET BY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO PRODUCE TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...IN THE MID 80S. 850 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND H5 HEIGHTS INCREASE WED. MOISTURE MAY BE ON THE RISE BY LATE WED INTO THURS DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF TROPICAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE UP THROUGH THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TO OUR EAST LATE WED/THURS TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO THE BE THE FASTEST AND FURTHEST EAST WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS REMAINS THE SLOWEST AND FARTHEST WEST. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE MAIN EFFECTS OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WITH INCREASED ON SHORE WINDS AND SWELLS THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD OVER LAND WITH RIDGE HOLDING STRONG ALOFT. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK BUT MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE ON SHORE...MAINLY OVER COASTAL AREAS AS TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. GFS ALSO SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NW BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TO START WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE COLUMN THURS INTO FRI WITH DEEPER ON SHORE FLOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...KILM IS THE COOL SPOT ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT THANKS TO THE EARLIER TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR VSBYS FOR KILM IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD AGAIN LOWER THE FOG THREAT. DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S AT KCRE/KMYR...SFC WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT BR FORMATION AT THESE TERMS. CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL NC ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE IS MOVING TOWARD OUR AREA...BUT THE HRRR TENDS TO WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY AS IT NEARS THE CWA. THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION VCSH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS NC THIS MORNING... APPROACHING KLBT/KILM AROUND 12Z. MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT MAY GET HUNG UP ACROSS OUR CWA DURING THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING THE CAROLINAS LATER IN THE PERIOD. WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTN WITH THE FRONT LINGERING OVER THE AREA...ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR ALL TERMS AFTER 18Z. LIGHT/VRBL WINDS IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT...REMAINING BELOW 10 KT. KCRE/KMYR WILL LIKELY SEE E-SE WINDS IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ON SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL SUN THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE EAST COAST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3:30 PM SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING...STALL BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR SC WATERS...THEN PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SWING FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE NE AND THEN EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BECOMING FIRMLY NE OVERNIGHT. NO REAL COLD SURGE INITIALLY MEANS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...PICKING UP TO AROUND 15 KTS BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A RESULT...FROM PRESENT 1 TO 2 FT RANGE TO 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...NORTHERLY SURGE AS COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL RISE SHARPLY THROUGH SUNDAY UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE WATERS. THE INCREASE IN WINDS WILL IN TURN PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN SEAS UP CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS BY SUN EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN UP CLOSE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF OUR LOCAL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND IN PERSISTENT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUOUS NORTHEAST FLOW UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP TO 4 TO 6 FT POSSIBLY INCREASING FURTHER WED INTO THURS DUE TO INCREASING SWELLS FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM MOST PROBABLY MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE OFF SHORE WATERS. AT THIS TIME MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT AND FATE OF THIS POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...BJR

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.