Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 251857 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 257 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Hurricane Maria is expected to remain offshore and move slowly north, with its center passing about 250 miles east of Cape Fear Tuesday night. Dangerous beach and marine conditions will prevail through mid-week. A cold front should reach the area late Thursday, bringing cooler and drier air into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...Conditions will change very little during the near term period. The slow movement of hurricane Maria will continue to bring mostly to partly cloudy skies with breezy conditions and little chance for rain. There will be more cloud cover along coastal areas with closer proximity to the lumbering storm. I adjusted tonight`s overnight lows up a degree or two based on a mixed boundary layer. The clouds have certainly held today`s highs in check and with similar conditions expected Tuesday, I walked back highs considerably. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Monday...Hurricane Maria will likely weaken into a Tropical Storm through mid-week as she moves north along and east of the NC coast. Maria will be distant enough to prevent any significant impacts locally although gusty north winds are likely Tuesday night through Wednesday, along with periods of clouds. However, beginning the latter half of Wednesday the CWA will be within the subsident region around Maria, noted by drying and subsidence in time-heights, creating abnormally warm temperatures and decreasing cloudiness the second half of the short term. A few isolated showers are possible along the Cape Fear coast Tuesday night, but this will end by Wednesday with no further precip forecast thanks to most of the moisture remaining offshore. As winds begin to ease late Wednesday, there will be very little indication locally that a tropical storm is in the vicinity unless you are at the beaches to see the waves. Increasing sunshine and subsidence will drive temps to near 90 Wednesday, just short of record highs for the date, with mins both nights above 70, more than 10 degrees above normal for late September. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...Subsidence in the wake of Maria and pre- frontal warming will lead to one more day of above-average temperatures before a cooling trend commences. A consensus of guidance gives us highs of around 90 on Thursday. A cold front will move offshore later on Thursday, bringing us near to well- below normal temperatures by Friday, with cool weather continuing into the weekend. The cold front will come through dry, although isolated to widely scattered showers are possible along the coast Friday night into Saturday as a strong upper disturbance dips SE across the mid-Atlantic states. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1800Z...MVFR conditions reside at the coastal terminals while inland sites are mostly VFR. This will continue to be the pattern through the period as the broad circulation around Maria will advect deeper moisture in along the coast. Guidance has the coastal sites going down into IFR tonight and I followed this with several hours starting at 03 UTC. Ceilings gradually lift Tuesday with MVFR developing once again along the coast. Extended Outlook...Conditions will improve from mid week on as Marie moves further away. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...Rough and tumble conditions will continue through the period for the coastal waters. Little change is expected with north to northeast winds of 20-25 knots. Significant seas will remain elevated as well. Will continue the High Surf Advisory and the Small Craft Advisory. The strongest winds of the period will occur early Tuesday across AMZ 250 possibly just above the 20-25 knot range for a couple of hours. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Monday...Gusty N/NW winds will slowly ease through the period as Hurricane Maria moves slowly well east of the NC coast. Winds Tuesday night will be N at 15-25 kts, highest AMZ250, before slowly easing to 10-15 kts Wed night from the NW. While these winds are mostly offshore and thus create only a limited wind wave amplitude, large swell from Maria at 4-5 ft/12 sec combined with the wind wave will create large seas and an SCA remains in effect through 8pm Wednesday evening. Wave heights Tuesday night will be 6- 9 ft, with some 10 fters possible in the far NE waters, before falling slowly through Wednesday to 3-5 ft, and then 2-4 ft at the end of the period. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...Expect gradually improving conditions over the waters as Maria moves well northeast into the central Atlantic and a weak pressure gradient takes its place. Do not expect any warnings or advisories during the long term. Highest winds and seas will be on Thursday for our NC coastal waters, with 10 to 15 kt winds and 3 to 5 ft seas. These conditions will improve, with seas in the 2 to 4 ft range and winds of only around 10 kts throughout by evening. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for SCZ054-056. High Surf Advisory until 9 PM EDT Tuesday for SCZ054-056. NC...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for NCZ106-108- 110. High Surf Advisory until 9 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...REK NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...REK AVIATION...SHK MARINE...REK/JDW/SHK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.