Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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862 FXUS62 KILM 301021 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 621 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to bring oppressive heat and humidity to the region through Saturday. The high will begin to break down beginning Sunday. A cool front will drop slowly across the area Tuesday into Wednesday bringing good chances for thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures will follow for the middle and end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 615 AM Saturday...Convection has weakened and shifted off the coast and the day will begin as the last few days with the Piedmont trough established. Precipitable water is plentiful and the model BUFR soundings are showing that deepest moisture is along the southeast North Carolina coast. This area is shown as where the first convection of the day will occur starting at 16 utc but stay along the coast counties through mid afternoon. Models continue to show convection developing by late afternoon and moving into the western sections of the forecast area late and this is a plausible scenario. The other item is that with the combination of high temperatures in the upper 90s inland and middle 90s at the coast and dewpoints in the lower 70s a portion of the area will fall under a heat advisory. The counties south of a Florence to Burgaw line will see heat indices reaching 105 to 107 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Saturday...The pattern still doesn`t change much with the Piedmont trough in place and deep moisture will continue overhead. A cold front will approach from the north late Monday night. The models are indicating a chance of convection throughout most of this period. With the high precipitable waters any thunderstorm that forms is likely to produce heavy downpours and frequent lightning. With the increase in cloud cover, ever so slightly cooler 850 mb temperatures, and possible convection the high temperatures will be 2 to 3 degrees cooler on Sunday (Max temps 92 to 96 degrees). This in turn will keep the heat indices just below the heat advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 315 AM Saturday...A cool down to more seasonable temperatures is in store for the first week of August due to an upper level trough along the eastern seaboard and an accompanying cool front, with highs in the upper 80`s/around 90 degrees and lows in the lower 70s through the extended. As the boundary drops southward across the area on Tuesday, anticipate increased cloud cover along with higher POPs for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Latest forecast soundings highlight precipitable water values around 1.5 and 2.0 inches, and as a result would not entirely rule out the mention of possible heavier downpours. Into Thursday, anticipate this boundary to weaken and dissipate as the upper ridge expands and builds into the region. Through the remainder of the week, expect typical summertime afternoon convection. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 06Z...Isolated SHRA/TSRA overnight and the potential for patchy areas of marginal MVFR towards morning. Otherwise expect VFR through the valid TAF period with scattered SHRA/TSRA Saturday afternoon. Latest radar imagery depicts isolated light showers moving across the area. Do not anticipate any restrictions to arise from this activity. With the combination of light winds and available low level moisture from isolated showers, this may allow for patchy areas of fog to develop towards morning, especially inland. However, given lower confidence have not introduced into going forecast at this time. Any fog that does develop could potentially create marginal MVFR. After daybreak, VFR will prevail across the forecast area with southwest winds around 10 kts, with higher gusts and scattered convection in the afternoon. Anticipate SHRA/TSRA activity to taper off Saturday night, with light winds and gradually clearing skies. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening convection each day may result in localized MVFR/IFR conditions. Each morning may also observe brief MVFR/IFR from fog and/or low ceilings. Otherwise, expect VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 615 AM Saturday...With the surface pattern similar to yesterday with the Piedmont trough to the west and the Bermuda high axis to the south, winds over the water will be from the southwest to south-southwest at 10 to 15 knots. seas will be 2 to 3 ft today with an occasional 4 footer 10 miles off the coast. Overnight a low- level jet develops and the winds increase to 15 knots and seas will rise to the 3 to 4 ft range. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Saturday...Only change to the current pattern is a front will shift into the northern waters just before daybreak on Tuesday will cause the winds to increase to 15 to 20 knots on Monday night. Seas will remain in the 2 to 4 ft range through this forecast period. There will be a chance for thunderstorm over the waters through this period. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 315 AM Saturday...A cool front will drop southward and gradually weaken across the waters Tuesday into Wednesday. As a result, expect southwest winds around 10 to 15 kts becoming northerly and then northeasterly Tuesday evening into Wednesday,with sustained winds around 10 kts. Seas of 3 to 4 ft on Tuesday will become 2 to 3 ft on Wednesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ032-033-039-053>056. NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ099-105>110. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...DRH LONG TERM...SGL AVIATION...SGL MARINE...

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