Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KILM 261555
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1155 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Canadian high pressure will extend over the area from the north as
it shifts slowly off shore through Thursday. A cold front will
approach the area late Thursday, crossing the coast early Friday
morning. High pressure will follow for the weekend with above
normal temperatures expected. Another cold front should move
across the area on Monday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 11 AM Wednesday...Canadian high pressure will continue to
extend south into the Carolinas as it shifts slowly east through
tonight. This will maintain dry weather through this afternoon.
Temps will rebound from an almost 10 degree below normal start to
the day, up toward normal readings by this afternoon. Most places
in southeast NC will plateau near 70 while heading into northeast South
Carolina you will see readings closer to 75.
As the high migrates eastward the flow will shift to a more on
shore direction. This will help feed moisture back into the area
pushing dewpoint temps back up into the mid 50s along the coast
with a slower penetration west of I-95, remaining below 50. This
will spell out temps back above normal for overnight lows
tonight...with an even greater difference along the coast where
the brunt of the moist on shore flow will be felt. Expect lows ranging
from around 50 inland to around 60 at the beaches. By morning
there should be some clouds around as winds shift farther to the
SE to S at the surface while some mid to high clouds will come
streaming in from system approaching from the west.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...A weak low pressure system will move NE into
New England on Thursday and then into the Gulf of Maine Friday,
dragging a cold front across the area on Thursday night. Unlike
earlier fronts, this one will have a modest amount of moisture
accompanying it, so increased cloud cover is likely. As moisture is
shallow and best upper support will be passing well to the north do
not expect this to be a rain-maker, although the odd pop-up shower
cannot be ruled out. CAA following FROPA will also be minimal, so do
not expect a significant cool-down with this system. In fact,
daytime temperatures will increase from Thursday into Friday, with
only a minor cool-down for Friday night into the mid 50s. Dry
airmass following FROPA means a dry Friday.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Surface high over the region at the start of
the period will gradually sink south and become elongated during the
weekend. Weak ridging aloft Sat into Sun is briefly suppressed south
by passage of shortwave to the north. How much suppression the ridge
experiences remains uncertain but it looks like the effects will be
minimal. The shortwave will help push a dry front across the region
Sun night into Mon with Canadian High building in Mon and Tue. Ahead
of the front southerly flow will help keep temps above to well above
Following the exit of the shortwave, the 5h ridge will expand back
north with northwest flow aloft on Mon becoming westerly on Tue.
Cold air is lacking behind the front and only a slight drop in
temperatures is expected following fropa. Downslope component to
winds aloft will contribute to temperatures above climo Mon and Tue.
Lack of deep moisture combined with very weak weak convergence along
the front will keep precip chances near zero.
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 12Z...High pressure will continue over the TAF sites through
this period. Therefore VFR is expected at all sites with possible
mvfr developing between 09 and 12 utc for BR. Winds will be light
from the north-northeast to northeast early this morning and
veering to the east by the afternoon. Winds will fall below 3
knots after sunset.
Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR expected. An isolated shower is
possible along with brief TEMPO MVFR Thursday afternoon and
evening but not likely.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 11 AM Wednesday...High pressure extending into the waters
from the north will migrate farther east through tonight. This
will help to shift winds around to the NE to E through today and
then toward the SE to S by morning. Gradient will remain relaxed
with winds holding between 10 and 15 kts. This will maintain
benign seas less than 3 ft.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...A cold front approaching from the west
will move offshore on Thursday night. A few showers may accompany
frontal passage, especially Thursday afternoon and evening, but
conditions are expected to remain well below advisory criteria as
the front will be weak with minimal gradient packing. Expect winds
of 10 to 15 kts through the period with seas of right around 2 ft.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...High pressure over the waters Sat morning
will shift south during the day. Light northeast winds will become
southwest in the afternoon, but gradient will remain weak and
speeds will stay under 10 kt into Sun. High sinks farther south
Sun with front approaching from the northwest late in the period.
Southwest flow around 10 kt continues into late Sun night before
the front crosses the waters dry and weak offshore flow develops.
Seas run 2 to 3 ft through the period.