Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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182 FXUS62 KILM 261555 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1155 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will extend over the area from the north as it shifts slowly off shore through Thursday. A cold front will approach the area late Thursday, crossing the coast early Friday morning. High pressure will follow for the weekend with above normal temperatures expected. Another cold front should move across the area on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 11 AM Wednesday...Canadian high pressure will continue to extend south into the Carolinas as it shifts slowly east through tonight. This will maintain dry weather through this afternoon. Temps will rebound from an almost 10 degree below normal start to the day, up toward normal readings by this afternoon. Most places in southeast NC will plateau near 70 while heading into northeast South Carolina you will see readings closer to 75. As the high migrates eastward the flow will shift to a more on shore direction. This will help feed moisture back into the area pushing dewpoint temps back up into the mid 50s along the coast with a slower penetration west of I-95, remaining below 50. This will spell out temps back above normal for overnight lows tonight...with an even greater difference along the coast where the brunt of the moist on shore flow will be felt. Expect lows ranging from around 50 inland to around 60 at the beaches. By morning there should be some clouds around as winds shift farther to the SE to S at the surface while some mid to high clouds will come streaming in from system approaching from the west. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...A weak low pressure system will move NE into New England on Thursday and then into the Gulf of Maine Friday, dragging a cold front across the area on Thursday night. Unlike earlier fronts, this one will have a modest amount of moisture accompanying it, so increased cloud cover is likely. As moisture is shallow and best upper support will be passing well to the north do not expect this to be a rain-maker, although the odd pop-up shower cannot be ruled out. CAA following FROPA will also be minimal, so do not expect a significant cool-down with this system. In fact, daytime temperatures will increase from Thursday into Friday, with only a minor cool-down for Friday night into the mid 50s. Dry airmass following FROPA means a dry Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...Surface high over the region at the start of the period will gradually sink south and become elongated during the weekend. Weak ridging aloft Sat into Sun is briefly suppressed south by passage of shortwave to the north. How much suppression the ridge experiences remains uncertain but it looks like the effects will be minimal. The shortwave will help push a dry front across the region Sun night into Mon with Canadian High building in Mon and Tue. Ahead of the front southerly flow will help keep temps above to well above climo. Following the exit of the shortwave, the 5h ridge will expand back north with northwest flow aloft on Mon becoming westerly on Tue. Cold air is lacking behind the front and only a slight drop in temperatures is expected following fropa. Downslope component to winds aloft will contribute to temperatures above climo Mon and Tue. Lack of deep moisture combined with very weak weak convergence along the front will keep precip chances near zero. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 12Z...High pressure will continue over the TAF sites through this period. Therefore VFR is expected at all sites with possible mvfr developing between 09 and 12 utc for BR. Winds will be light from the north-northeast to northeast early this morning and veering to the east by the afternoon. Winds will fall below 3 knots after sunset. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR expected. An isolated shower is possible along with brief TEMPO MVFR Thursday afternoon and evening but not likely. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 11 AM Wednesday...High pressure extending into the waters from the north will migrate farther east through tonight. This will help to shift winds around to the NE to E through today and then toward the SE to S by morning. Gradient will remain relaxed with winds holding between 10 and 15 kts. This will maintain benign seas less than 3 ft. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...A cold front approaching from the west will move offshore on Thursday night. A few showers may accompany frontal passage, especially Thursday afternoon and evening, but conditions are expected to remain well below advisory criteria as the front will be weak with minimal gradient packing. Expect winds of 10 to 15 kts through the period with seas of right around 2 ft. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...High pressure over the waters Sat morning will shift south during the day. Light northeast winds will become southwest in the afternoon, but gradient will remain weak and speeds will stay under 10 kt into Sun. High sinks farther south Sun with front approaching from the northwest late in the period. Southwest flow around 10 kt continues into late Sun night before the front crosses the waters dry and weak offshore flow develops. Seas run 2 to 3 ft through the period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...III AVIATION...DRH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.