Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 291038 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 640 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL STAY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM MONDAY... CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. SOME CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR COVERAGE OF INITIAL SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE AND COASTAL NORTHEAST SC. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TODAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES INITIALLY...THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL MEASURE RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MOIST PLUME NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE MAIN SHORT-WAVE AXIS WILL PUSH TO THE COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING POPS AND DIMINISHING QPF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE LATER TODAY...HOWEVER THE RRQ OF H3 JET IS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION YIELDING DECENT UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES IN THE AREA PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY. OVERALL...EXPECT QPF WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH OR HIGHER GENERALLY SOUTH OF AN ILM TO UDG LINE...WITH THE BULK OCCURRING OFF THE COAST. OTHERWISE...AMPLE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...AND GRADUAL DRYING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. A BLEND OF MAV/MET NUMBERS LOOKS REASONABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUES WITH A DEEP N-NW FLOW OF DRY AIR AS RIDGE BUILDS UP THE EAST COAST. PCP WATER VALUES DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM AROUND 1.5 INCHES TUES MORNING DOWN TO LESS THAN AN INCH BY TUES NIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA BY TUES AFTN AND RUNNING THROUGH WED. MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND SUNNY SKIES WILL YIELD TEMPS UP AROUND 80 ON TUES. DRIER AIR IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS DOWN CLOSE TO 60 AND BELOW OVER INLAND AREAS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DROP UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS ON WED WILL WARM INTO THE 80S WITH THE AID OF A MORE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AT THE SURFACE. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY DAY. SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE SOME AFTN CU BUT OVERALL EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS REACHING UP AROUND 80. BY FRI...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW. AS THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE SLIPS EAST A TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS TROUGH DIGS DOWN IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS LATE FRI INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE FLOW REMAINS MORE WESTERLY AND THEREFORE DOES NOT PULL UP MUCH IN THE WAY OF GULF MOISTURE SO EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF AREA AND THEREFORE SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT A WARM AND SUNNY START TO FRIDAY AND EXPECT PCP TO REMAIN ON THE LOW END WITH BEST CHC FRI EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AS IT SHIFTS EAST. MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING A VERY BROAD TROUGH WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW BY SUNDAY. A DEEP COOLER NW FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH READINGS IN THE MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOW TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE IN A VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS DOWN IN THE 50S. OVERALL EXPECT MORE FALL LIKE WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...TRICKY FORECAST TODAY. PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...HOWEVER TIME HEIGHT AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PRECIP IS COMING OUT OF A MID CLOUD CEILING...KEEPING PRECIP QUITE LIGHT. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO LOWER...BUT SHOULD NONETHELESS BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH MVFR EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE NAM HAS BEEN TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH REGARD TO CEILINGS FOR DAYS NOW...IF NOT WEEKS. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM`S IFR CEILINGS FOR NOW...BUT MAY INTRODUCE THEM THIS EVENING. CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY...FAIRLY LIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...SHUTTING OFF THE PRECIP. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE WITH INITIAL WINDS ANYWHERE BETWEEN THE NW AND NE WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE MOMENT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT UNTIL DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. N TO NE WIND...GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS... WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE WIND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THE DAY...THEN 15 TO 20 KTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT INITIALLY THEN BUILDING TO 4 FT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK END OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE MOVING FARTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH TUES...WILL INCREASE UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH TUES BUT WILL COME BACK DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FT BY WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THURS AND SHIFT OFF SHORE BY FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THURS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY FRI AND INCREASING UP TO 15 KTS BY FRI AFTN AS FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FT ON THURS WILL INCREASE BACK UP TO 3 TO 4 FT WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WITH THE STRONGER WINDS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...43

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