Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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022 FXUS62 KILM 210737 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 330 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Today will be seasonable and rain-free behind a weak cold front. Temperatures will surge back above normal for the weekend, with the possibility of showers and thunderstorms increasing early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 1045 PM Wednesday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion follows: The cold front appears to have cleared the northern two-thirds of the forecast area as it continues to drop slowly south. Water vapor loops show plenty of dry air overhead and this is a big reason for the almost complete lack of convection this afternoon and evening. Have knocked back POPs to sub-mentionable levels except for over southern Brunswick County where a weak storm is still in progress. Expect a dry overnight period. Overnight temperature forecast of the lower 70s inland to the middle 70s at the beaches still holds. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Wednesday...High pressure will build by Thursday and will slowly give way to a developing Piedmont trough. The chances for afternoon convection on Thursday look to be shunted to the southwest sections of the CWA where the best moisture and any possible convergence exist with the old frontal boundary. At this time on slight chance of convection is forecast. For Friday there will be an slight increase in temperatures with highs ranging between 91 to 93 degrees. Lows will rebound on Thursday night from the lower 70s inland to mid 70s to mid 70s everywhere Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 3 AM Thursday...500mb ridge right overhead Sunday and Monday and this should keep hot temperatures and little to no precipitation chances in the forecast. Guidance is showing some areas hotter Sunday vs Monday while other guidance reverses this trend. In the end unless the sea breeze dictates otherwise along the coast both days appear quite similar and both likely candidates for Heat Advisories. The ridge may be more stalwart than previously though especially according to the 00Z GFS which now shows little to no retrogression and thus a similar hot and humid forecast. We may now have to wait until Wednesday for just enough retrogression of the ridge from some vorticity centers to stream across the area in the resulting NW flow. This could temper the heat and also lead to better chances of thunderstorm, maybe strong to severe ones.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 06Z...Sky has cleared and wind has gone light and variable as anticipated. This will allow inland sites to radiate to where some fog and perhaps stratus will develop. At any coastal location fog should remain MVFR at worst. Inland locales may dip down to IFR or even brief LIFR (mainly if a low CIG develops). By daybreak all terminals back to VFR. Winds will be N-NE veering to the E-S as the day progresses. A few showers possible near KFLO in the afternoon. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Brief periods of MVFR/IFR from isolated afternoon convection through Saturday. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1045 PM Wednesday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion follows: A cold front is shifting southward across the South Carolina coastal waters and this front will eventually stall just south of Georgetown. Winds will shift across the waters this evening but ahead of the front light south- westerly winds will continue. Seas will continue to run between 1 to 3 ft with a 1 to 2 foot east- southeast swell. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Wednesday...As high pressure builds over the waters the winds are expected to be generally less than 10 knots and seas will be in the 2 to 3 ft range. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 AM Thursday...A very unsettled set of changing conditions. This is not only fairly typical during the heart of summer but it becomes even moreso during a heatwave. Winds will be 10-15kt and southwesterly with a piedmont trough in place while the Bermuda high is displaced eastward of its normal position. Seas will average 2 to 3 and occasionally 4 ft.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SGL NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...DRH LONG TERM...mbb AVIATION...MBB MARINE...SGL/DRH

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