Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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189 FXUS62 KILM 241919 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 319 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will affect the Carolinas through the end of the week. This will result in the continuation of dry weather. Humidity will increase by the weekend. An area of low pressure moving through the Bahamas and to Florida on Sunday into Monday, will be watched closely for possible tropical development. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Ridging aloft and at the surface will ensure a quiet remainder of the afternoon and overnight period. There does appear to be another area of low level convergence working its way down the coast overnight, coincident with an area of increased low level moisture. Appears this feature will remain offshore but it could result in isolated showers developing just off the coast after midnight. Temperatures overnight will be typical of late August with mid 60s inland to upper 60s/around 70 along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Deep ridging remains in place over the Carolinas through the period with strong mid level subsidence limiting moisture aloft. The center of the 5h ridge slowly migrates north Thu, ending up centered over or just west of the local area later on Fri. Meanwhile the surface high elongates northeast as its influence slowly weakens. Low level northeast flow will continue around the southwest side of the high, pushing shallow moisture into the region. The increased boundary layer moisture will help develop scattered diurnal clouds each afternoon but subsidence under the ridging will keep clouds on the flat side. Temperatures will be near to slightly above climo with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Center of mid to upper ridge overhead through the weekend will shift slowly north and weaken as tropical system makes its way west from the Bahamas. At the sfc, weak high pressure will remain to our north. This will maintain a deep easterly on shore flow through at least Monday. The ridge aloft should suppress convection for the most part through Monday but will see some clouds pass overhead at times and some daily cu development with an isolated shower or two along. Overall a dry weekend into early next week, in terms of rainfall, with only isolated showers, but will continue to have a summertime air mass in place with temps running near to above normal most days with overnight lows several degrees above. Should see a slight dip in temps over the weekend into early next week as 850 temps show a minor drop but overall fairly consistent summer time temps through the period. As ridge weakens aloft, the onshore flow will allow for increased potential for showers especially as tropical system moves west from the Bahamas heading into mid week next week. Most models show a weak tropical wave/low reaching the south Fl coast by early Monday, but then the GFS shows it moving up the southeast coast to FL/GA coast by Wed while the ECMWF is faster as it keeps it on a more southern track across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico, strengthening as it reaches the western Gulf coast. For now, it looks like it will remain quite far south at least through Tues. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 18Z...Other than possible early morning MVFR fog for LBT, high confidence in VFR through the TAF period. High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue a modest northeasterly wind, becoming light and variable or calm overnight. Scattered to occasionally broken fair weather CU with bases around 5 kft will persist through the afternoon hours, fading this evening with only scattered cirrus remaining. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Possible early morning VFR due to patchy fog through Monday, otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Northeast flow of 10 to 15 kt will continue overnight as high pressure remains centered north of the area. Modest increase in low level moisture along with some weak convergence may result in some isolated showers across the waters overnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Elongated high pressure to the north will maintain northeast flow through the period. Speeds will be 10 to 15 kt but winds may acquire more of an onshore component each afternoon, especially Fri, as the gradient relaxes and a weak sea breeze develops. Seas will run 2 to 3 ft through the period. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Weak high pressure at the sfc with center just north through the period. Overall expect a deep E-NE fetch at the base of the ridge through the period. This will maintain easterly winds 10 to 15 kts through much of the period. This easterly push should produce seas 3 to 4 ft through much of the period with some 5 fters possible in outer waters. WNA model shows the forerunners from Gaston, a longer period up to 10 sec E-SE swell, reaching the waters by Sat night and then greater easterly swell up to 16 seconds reaching the waters by Sun evening. && .CLIMATE... As of 300 AM Wednesday...Shortly before 2 AM this morning Wilmington`s official temperature here at the airport touched 69 degrees. This ends the streak of consecutive days with low temps 70 degrees or warmer at 58, now the all-time longest streak in Wilmington history dating back to 1874. Wilmington`s Consecutive Days with Low Temperatures 70+ degrees #1 58 days 6/27/2016 to 8/23/2016 #2 56 days 6/29/2012 to 8/23/2012 #3 52 days 6/22/1941 to 8/12/1941 #4 48 days 7/ 6/1986 to 8/22/1986 #5 46 days 6/28/1991 to 8/12/1991 Yesterday morning the streak of consecutive 70+ low temps in Florence was broken at 62 days. This is also an all-time record for Florence dating back to 1948. Florence`s Consecutive Days with Low Temperatures 70+ degrees #1 62 days 6/22/2016 to 8/22/2016 #2 60 days 6/26/2005 to 8/24/2005 #3 55 days 7/ 6/1975 to 8/29/1975 #4 46 days 7/10/2010 to 8/24/2010 #5 45 days 6/11/2015 to 7/25/2012 #5 45 days 6/28/1991 to 8/11/1991 From a climate perspective, the summer of 2016 has been interesting in that daily highs and lows have been among the warmest average readings in history without having any individually extremely hot days. In Wilmington since June 1st our average high temperature is the fifth hottest in history and average low temperature is the third hottest, but the highest temperature this summer of only 98 degrees was not exceptional at all. Florence since June 1st has had its seventh hottest average daily high temp, record hottest daily low temp, but the highest temperature of the summer at 98 degrees is actually cooler than the "normal" hottest annual temp of 101. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...REK CLIMATE...TRA is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.