Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 312000 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 400 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEK...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP A STEADY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. MID AND UPPER LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO THIS...ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS FADED AS THE DRYER AIR ALOFT MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE EXTENSIVE CU FIELD THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING HAS ALSO BEGUN TO ERODE AS THE MIXING PROGRESSES. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND OVERNIGHT TO BE DRY. CONTINUED WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONTERMINOUS U.S. WILL HAVE FAST WESTERLY FLOW...WHEREAS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD WILL HAVE A FLATTENED RIDGE ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY S/W TROFS WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...NORTH OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE FA. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF...WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY SOURCES FOR LIFT EACH DAY FOR CONVECTION TO OCCUR. AT THIS POINT HAVE STAYED WITH CLIMO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WHICH IS BASICALLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. ANY WEAK VORTS OR S/W TROFS ALOFT ABLE TO WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE COULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ABOVE CLIMO...30 PERCENT CHANCE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NO LONGER BE IN QUESTION AS MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM VIA LATEST MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MODEL SOUNDING DATA. OF THE 2 DAYS...TUE WILL BE ILLUSTRATED WITH THE HIER POPS CHANCE AND CLOUD OVERALL COVERAGE. FOR TEMPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKING NEEDED BASED ON 12Z MODEL MOS DATA.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE WITH A WEAKENED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH DAY MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. PCP WATER VALUES REMAIN UP AROUND 2 INCHES BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN ABOVE H5 WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEA BREEZE KICKING UP EACH AFTERNOON. FLAT MID TO UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A DEEPER SHORTWAVE RIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND DIGS SOUTHWARD PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 OR SO. BUILDING H5 HEIGHTS THROUGH FRI SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND AS TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY EAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 18Z...VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE PERIODS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT OF CIGS 3-4K. THE BEST SHOWER POTENTIAL...ALBEIT ISOLATED...THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SE-S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND TO 5 TO 10 KT AT KFLO/KLBT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...BECOMING LGT SW LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST BR/FG POTENTIAL WILL BE THE INLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS LIKELY KFLO/KLBT BY 08Z. VFR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 13Z WITH S WINDS DEVELOPING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND SW-W WINDS AT KFLO/KLBT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP UP A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...WITH SEAS NOT STRAYING FAR FROM THEIR PRESENT 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH AND HE SFC PIEDMONT TROUGH. LOOKING AT SYNOPTIC WINDS IN THE SSW THRU WSW WIND DIRECTION...WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT BACKING EACH AFTN AND EVENING FROM THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE. THE SFC PG WILL BECOME MODEST AT BEST RESULTING WITH 10-15 KT OR A SOLID 15 KT WIND SPEED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3 FT...WITH MAJORITY OF THE SIG. SEAS A RESULT OF THE 2 FOOT SE GROUND SWELL RUNNING ROUGHLY AT 9-10 SECOND PERIODS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES ESPECIALLY FROM THE SEA BREEZE WILL RUN SIG. SEAS UP TO 3 TO POSSIBLY 4 FT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL EXPECT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW 10 KTS OR LESS DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...REK NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...REK/MRR

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