Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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677 FXUS62 KILM 160540 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1240 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will extend into the Carolinas through Monday night. A slight warming trend will take place Tuesday and Wednesday in southerly winds ahead of the next cold front. Cooler and drier high pressure will build in behind this front, but low pressure moving up from the Gulf coast may produce some unsettled weather through late week and into the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1030 PM Sunday...The baroclinic zone is now close enough to warrant a low chance POP along the northern periphery of the ILM CWA. This is where the weak isentropic lift will be enough for patchy light rain or isolated showers to occur. Have further increased the cloud shield overnight from the previous update. This due to the low stratus developing over the local waters and moving/developing onshore and further inland. Not much in the way of sea fog being reported along the ILM Coast underneath the canopy of stratus and will leave it out of the fcst. Still, could see pockets of patchy/areas of fog develop inland however its intensity will be limited by cloud cover unless the low stratus sinks to the sfc. Will continue with a nearly 10 degree difference for overnight lows, with low to mid 40s NE portions to low 50s across the SW portions. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Sunday...Expect a gradual warm-up from Monday to Tuesday as a weak warm front lifts north of the forecst area, with the next frontal system approaching from the west. WAA on Tuesday in advance of this front will pop highs up right around 70 most places. Temperatures on Monday will be a bit more seasonal. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Sunday...Medium range guidance still points to a highly amplified, complex, and busy mid level pattern. Still timing differences between the ECMWF and GFS as would be expected with this type of scenario. However there is some growing consensus as well. Still expect a back door front to move across Wednesday on the strength of a progressive ridge in the Tennessee Valley. Some agreement now on Thursday being dry due to mid level drying. I have walked back the pops for this time period. A dampening shortwave moves across Friday with more unsettled conditions for Saturday and Sunday via the slowly ejecting shortwave (which closes off) from the southwest. Continued to advertise pops for next weekend but with the interval nature of the forcing, fine tuning will be necessary and a complete washout is not likely. Finally not much change in temperature guidance. Expect one last round of highs in the 70s Wednesday ahead of the first front. From Thursday onward expect highs in the 60s with overnight lows moreso above normal in the 40s to around 50. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 06Z...Expect mainly IFR or MVFR overnight as high pressure keeps a front just to our south. Added some light rain to the LBT TAF, late night and this morning, but otherwise, expect the rain will stay north of the TAF sites. Latest guidance continues to suggest the continuation of deteriorating flight restrictions as mainly stratus spreads across the area. Will have to watch the dense fog building to our south, but at this time, the fog is expected to remain along and south of the front. After daybreak, anticipate stratus and patchy fog to continue, allowing for MVFR/IFR to prevail through the remainder of the valid TAF period. Improvement to VFR Monday evening is possible inland. Northeasterly winds around 5 to 10 kt will become east- southeast into the afternoon hours. Extended Outlook...Stratus/fog possible each morning through Tuesday. Cold front expected Wednesday, accompanied with showers and MVFR. Showers possible Friday. Otherwise expect VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 PM Sunday...Northeast winds will perk up across the ILM Waters, especially the ILM NC Waters and likely further south into much of the ILM SC waters. This due to a quick increase in the ridging from the north. As for wind speeds, will see a 10 to 15 kt range possibly a more solid 15 kt from Cape Fear northward. Significant seas will run 2 to 4 ft and again be dominated by an ESE, 2 to 3 foot ground swell at 10 to 11 second periods. The wind driven waves at 4 second periods may add 1 to possibly 2 feet to the ground swell. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Sunday...For Monday, high pressure centered to the north will move offshore as a weak warm front moves north across the waters. Winds will stay light Monday with seas of only around 2 ft. A frontal system approaching from the west will turn winds to the SW on Tuesday, increasing to 10 to 15 kt Tuesday night with seas increasing by about a foot. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM Sunday...Wednesday should see southwest winds of 10-15 knots (possibly a little higher for a couple of hours) ahead of a backdoor front. This front lazily moves across early Thursday with a very weak pressure pattern ensuing. This leads to essentially light and variable winds Thursday and Friday. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet Wednesday and Thursday dropping off somewhat Friday.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...RJD/SGL

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