Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 072337 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 637 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO WINDY AND WET CONDITIONS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW INTO MID TO LATE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...HAVE PARED BACK THE WIND ADVISORY AND FLOOD WATCH BASED ON PROGRESSION OF THE STORM. RAIN IS NOW CONFINED TO THE CAPE FEAR REGION FROM BRUNSWICK AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES NORTHWARD. RAIN SHIELD WAS EARLIER MOVING RATHER SWIFTLY EASTWARD...BUT HAS SLOWED OVER THE LAST FEW SCANS. WINDS INLAND HAVE DECREASED MARKEDLY AND ARE ALSO ON THE DECLINE ELSEWHERE. FOR NOW ANTICIPATE THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THE WIND ADVISORY ON TIME AT 10 PM. FROZEN PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SLEET OR WET SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN IS STILL A POSSIBILITY BUT AS NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WE DO NOT SEE THIS AS A THREAT. BIGGEST THREAT CONTINUES TO BE FLOODING WHERE RAINS ARE STILL FALLING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: POWERFUL SURFACE LOW POSITIONED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR PRESENTLY. RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE WILL GRACE SE NC AND NE SC WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO EVENING BEFORE PULLING OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE DEEPENING LOW WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHTLY PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO EARLY EVENING AND THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN POSTED...AS THE PUBLIC IMPACT OF POTENTIALLY DOWNED TREES REMAINS VIABLE. ONGOING PRECIPITATION WARRANTS CONTINUATION OF THE FLOOD WATCH AS WELL...WITH A FLOOD WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SE NC. DUE TO MARGINAL TEMPERATURES OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND RELATIVELY MILDER GROUND AND SURFACE TEMPS...SNOW ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AND THUS NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS PLANNED. COOLING SURFACE TEMPS WILL ARRIVE IN THE PRE- DAWN HOURS AS THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO PULL AWAY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...MINIMUMS 30-35 DEGREES MILDEST AT THE COAST. INTO EARLY MONDAY WINDS TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST.
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&& && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. COLUMN MOISTENS UP THROUGH MON AFTERNOON BUT DOES NOT BECOME SATURATED AT ANY LEVEL AND THEREFORE MAY BE TOUGH TO SQUEEZE ANY PCP OUT BUT WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL RIDE ACROSS OUR AREA AND ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING THIS WILL BE THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY PCP. AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SW TO W ABOVE THE SFC THROUGH LATE AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE...ONLY SLIGHT COOLING WILL OCCUR ABOVE THE SFC BUT FZL LEVEL STILL REMAINS AROUND 4K FT. WARMER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE ERODED FURTHER AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO AREA WITH COLUMN DROPPING ALMOST COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK AS CAA INCREASES BEHIND COLD FRONT. OVERALL WOULD NOT DISCOUNT SOME SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN BUT NOT COUNTING ON MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP AT ALL. PCP WATER VALUES ONLY REACH NEAR A HALF INCH. WILL CONTINUE KEEP FORECAST ALL RAIN FOR NOW AND LOW CHC POP WITH MINIMAL QPF. TEMPS WILL REACH UP INTO THE MID 50S ON MONDAY AND WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT. BY TUES MORNING...A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DIG DOWN AND ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED CAA AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS EXISTS ON TUES AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT ANY PCP IN FORECAST FOR NOW...THERE MAY BE A VERY LOW END CHC LINGERING INTO TUES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO RIDE AROUND BASE OF TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY. CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW 50 DURING THE DAY AND DOWN INTO THE MID 20S OVERNIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...VERY COLD AND WINDY FOR THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES. ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST...AND BE REINFORCED THROUGH A SERIES OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AND WEAK FRONTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AS LOW AS -16C (!) ON THURSDAY MORNING...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT AT NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. REGARDLESS...HIGHS WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED AND THU PEAKING ONLY AROUND 40 DEGREES...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE WIND CHILLS FALL INTO THE TEENS AT NIGHT...AND ONLY RISE TO AROUND 30 DURING THE AFTNS. A BIT OF WARM/MOIST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING OUR ONLY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. ATTM IT APPEARS IT WILL BE JUST A BIT TOO WARM DURING PRECIP FOR ANY PTYPE CONCERNS...BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...BUT STILL BE CONFINED TO THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50...BEFORE FALLING BACK TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 00Z...STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEARLY PARALLEL TO US AT THIS TIME. IT WILL SLOWLY PULL NORTH AND OUT OF THE REGION. RAIN BANDS HAVE CLEARED ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ILM WHERE THEY WILL LAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO. STRONG NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ILM FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS...WITH LESSER SPEEDS AT THE MYRTLES AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. MAINLY A MID CLOUD CEILING OVERNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. SCATTERED SKIES IN STORE WITH THE MORNING SUNRISE. A VIGOROUS BUT SHORT LIVED VORT MAX WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. THE AIRMASS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THE COAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BEYOND. STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 10 PM...AFTER WHICH A GALE WARNING MAY BE HOISTED DEPENDING UPON CONDITIONS. LATEST OBS SHOW SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FEET...WITH WINDS GUSTING UP AROUND 50 KTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS A COASTAL STORM OFF CAPE FEAR TRACKS NE...STORM FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE DOWNGRADED TO A GALE OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS OF 7-13 FEET WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 8 FEET BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH WINDS EASING TO 15-25 KT FROM THE W. WIND DRIVEN RAIN THIS EVENING MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO 1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. FRYING PAN SHOALS REPORTED A A PEAK GUST EARLIER TO 52 KT...MASONBORO BUOY 5NM OFF OF WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH 52 KT AS WELL. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST AND NEXT ONE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WINDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO DIMINISH AS THEY BACK TO THE SW EARLY MONDAY....DROPPING BELOW 15 KTS. THIS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES TO THE NORTH DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH BY MON NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE OVER 20 KTS BY LATE AFTN AND NEAR 30 KTS MON NIGHT AS DEEP CAA COMBINES WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH TUES NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE WATERS AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF OUT OF THE AREA. THE STRONG OFF SHORE COMPONENT TO THE SEAS WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE. SEAS WILL INITIALLY DIMINISH TO 4 TO 6 FT AS WINDS DROP THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AND THEN WILL BUILD AGAIN LATE MON PEAKING AROUND 4 TO 8 FT MON NIGHT AND REMAINING THIS HIGH THROUGH TUES NIGHT AND BEYOND. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BEFORE SLOWLY EASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY WILL VEER TO THE NW AT 15-20 KTS...AND THEN FALL QUICKLY AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE WATERS FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SW AT 5-10 KTS BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE ALL OF WEDNESDAY (OR POSSIBLY A GALE WARNING) FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT...LOWER NEAR SHORE. SEAS THEN FALL QUICKLY THURSDAY TO 2-4 FT...AND THEN JUST 1-2 FT ON FRIDAY
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ099-105>110. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ105>110. MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DL MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/RGZ

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