Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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327 FXUS62 KILM 081148 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 648 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring a dry and seasonable day today. A cold front will move through later on Thursday, ushering in the coldest temperatures of the season for the first part of the weekend. A warming trend will follow Sunday into Monday ahead of the next cold front. Expect seasonable and dry weather Tuesday as high pressure builds in behind front. Another frontal system will affect the area during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 630 AM Thursday...Areas of stratus and stratocu will plague the region this morning. Latest mosaic 88D shows virga across central NC. Sfc obs underneath did not report any pcpn. As a result, will continue with the dry fcst and CFP. Drier air aloft later this morning with the days insolation should help break down a portion of the low stratus. However, clouds ahead of the approaching cold front will fill back in as it approaches the FA from the northwest later this morning and afternoon. Only minimal convergence along the front which is likely not enough for pcpn development. In fact, with westerly flow aloft, moisture accompanying this front will scour-some as it progresses to and across the FA this aftn. Looking at mid- late aftn when the cold front clears the ILM CWA Coast. The sfc pg will tighten after the CFP resulting in NW winds increasing. the cold surge lags slightly behind the front and will really begin to be realized during the pre-dawn Fri hours. Post frontal clouds will affect the FA overnight, with the drier air thru the atm column occurring during Friday, after the mid-level trof axis pushes thru. Used the hier max temps from the avbl model mos guidance and also stayed on the hier side for tonights mins which will occur around or after daybreak due to CAA infiltrating the FA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Thursday...Modified Arctic air and dry conditions will govern this period. Progressive flow at all levels this period will prevent the modified Arctic high pressure from affecting the FA from more than 2 days. The High itself will ridge across the FA during Friday, with it`s center pushing across NC Saturday and off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Sun morning. Will have 3 mornings with low temps at or below the freezing mark, with Saturday morning being the coldest with widespread 20s. Enough of a wind Friday night into early Sat morning will result in wind chill readings in the upper teens to around 20. Skies thru this period will be mainly clear except for Sunday morning when models indicate a weak inverted sfc trof off the Carolina coasts with possible stratocu moving to the coast. If cloudiness and weak onshore flow becomes more prevalent Sun morning, min temps along the coastal counties may actually rise above 32 during the pre-dawn Sun hrs given various thickness fields also increasing. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM Thursday...Boundary and surface temperatures progged to recover some 10-12 degrees F on Sunday as the wedge weakens beneath strong low level warm advection. Increased cloud cover resulting from the upglide will temper the warmth slightly but Monday will benefit from a much warmer start and should actually turn out warmer than climatology. Rain chances associated with coastal trough Sunday into Sunday night will continued to be carried but capped low as they are likely a case of over aggressive moistening by guidance, a seemingly common error. Rain chances should max out Monday as a cold front moves through, though the lack of deep layer veering should keep QPF prospects minimized as it prevents the mid levels from moistening. After a dry and fairly seasonable Tuesday we may be looking at another Arctic cold front on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 06z...A weak frontal wave is approaching from the northwest. Ahead of this system a fairly solid deck of MVFR ceilings have developed. This moisture was very poorly initialized by model guidance, lowering the forecast confidence regarding its tenacity. Normally the best course is to keep lowered conditions as-is until daybreak especially this time of year. There is some wind above the surface layer so any VSBY restrictions likely fairly transient and only MVFR. VFR after sunrise with just a windshift to the NNW spreading south across the terminals this evening as the Arctic front pushes through. Extended Outlook...VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 630 AM Thursday...SCA raised for this evening through late Friday afternoon. Benign conditions this morning will give way to an increase in wsw-w winds around 10 kt ahead of the approaching cold front. Look for the CFP during late this aftn, to well offshore during this evening. The sfc pg tightens quickly after the CFP with NW winds increasing to 10 to 20 kt by sunset. The cold surge will lag behind the cold front but should be in full force across the area waters during the pre-dawn Fri hrs. Winds will further increase to 15 to 25 kt with added gustiness to 30 kt, especially across the warmer outer waters and closer to the Gulf Stream or any eddies having broken off from the Stream. Significant seas will run 1 to 2 ft this morning, building to 2 to 4 ft late this afternoon. Further building to 3 to 5 ft, up to 6 ft 20 nm out of the Capes late. Weak Pseudo swell from the south at 7 second periods will dominate this morning, then give way to building wind driven waves at 3 to 5 second periods tonight. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Thursday...SCA conditions expected for daytime Friday. Modified Arctic air will advect across the local waters during friday and when combined with a tightened sfc pg, expect winds to be from the NNW-NNE at 15 to 25 kt with possible gusts up to 30+ kt during the peak of the CAA during Fri morning. The center of the modified Arctic high will move across NC during Sat and progress off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sat night. Will only see N to NNE winds drop off Fri night thru Sat to 10 to 20 kt, with the lower speeds across the ILM NC waters due to the proximity of the high`s center. Could see more of a NE wind direction thruout the waters by Sun morning if the inverted sfc trof just offshore and parallel to the coasts becomes a reality. The sfc pg will slightly tighten after the high`s center bypasses the FA late Sat night which could push winds back to 10 to 15 kt or around 15 kt. Significant seas will peak early to midday Friday followed by just a slow subsiding trend. This a result of seas being dominated by locally produced wind driven waves at 3 to 5 second periods. The offshore nature of the winds early on this period, will produce a range of seas when they peak, ie. 1 to 3 ft at 0 to 10 nm out, and 3 to 6 ft at 10 to 20 nm out. The 6 footers to occur outer waters off Cape Fear and Romain respectively. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As OF 3 AM Thursday...Winds initially out of the SE on Sunday with a weak coastal trough in place. Late in the day into Sunday night this feature washes out and a SSW flow gets established and strengthens some. A few 5 ft seas may materialize well away from shore but the coast-parallel fetch may preclude headlines since most of the area sees smaller waves. Monday`s forecast rather uncertain as models are in poor agreement in timing the next front. The slower and slightly favored solutions would allow for a moderately strong prefrontal SW flow that would likely require an advisory.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Friday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SGL

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