Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 070851 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 351 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak high will yield fairly seasonable weather today and tomorrow before a powerful cold front arrives late Thursday. A very cold weekend is then in store for the area with a gradual warmup starting Sunday. A weak cold front will move through Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 330 AM Wednesday...Weak, and dry, high pressure will build into the area today and persist thru tonight. The sfc pg will relax this morning and especially by this aftn thru tonight as the low off the VA Capes progresses ene further away from the FA. Looking at NNW to NNE winds diminishing to less than 5 mph this aftn and likely becoming nearly calm after sunset thru tonight. an overcast low stratus clouds this morning should scour out later this morning by midday due to drier air aloft mixing down to the sfc. This will leave thin to opaque upper level cirrus traversing the area this aftn and tonight. Temperatures this period will run at to slightly higher than the 30 year normals. Overall, not bad of a day compared to the previous 2.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 312 PM Tuesday...Primary headliners this period is a debut of sunshine Wednesday as weak high pressure moves in, and the onset of an Arctic air intrusion late Thursday. Isolated showers Thursday may preceded the cold but QPF expectations are nil to few hundredths. Coldest portion of this time period daybreak Friday 30-35. The mildest part of this period where readings will reach 60-65, both WED/THU aftn. Expect breezy conditions late Thursday as cold air races in. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM Wednesday...A very cold airmass remains in control on Saturday though as the center of the high builds overhead winds will diminish. Warm advection will begin atop this airmass Saturday night but surface temperatures will still fall below 30 for all but SC beaches. It is then on Sunday when we will appreciate the warming at the surface as high pressure moves off the coast and the chill abates. Moisture will be on the rise in the low levels but zonal flow in the mid levels should preclude much moistening above. This would imply that the next cold front will be hard-pressed to produce any rainfall but some very low POPs seem warranted Sunday night into Monday. This zonal flow will also mean little meaningful cold air with the front. Late period temperatures look seasonable if not a few degrees above. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 06Z...Guidance has backed off considerably on showing lowered flight categories overnight due to visibility. Since the wind will remain elevated enough for weak mixing this seems plausible. There is little to rout out this low level moisture in the form of IFR ceilings however. This will have to wait until deeper mixing ensues after sunup. VFR from thereafter. Extended Outlook...Fog possible Wednesday night. VFR conditions expected to prevail late week through this weekend. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM Wednesday...SCA and SCEC conditions early this morning, with conditions improving quickly during this period. Improving marine conditions expected today. The gusty NNW to NNE winds early this morning will diminish from south to north as the modest low off the VA Capes pushes ENE further away from the local waters. This will result in the sfc pg relaxing and winds diminishing to around 10 kt this aftn and possibly less than 10 kt tonight. Not much of a pressure pattern tonight which will result in a variable wind direction, however will indicate a dominate direction in lieu of going VRBL. Significant seas will also be subsiding this period. With short period wind driven waves dominating the seas spectrum, expect the seas to subside quicker. Seas will diminish to 3 ft or less by this evening, and to 1 to 2 ft during tonight. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 311 PM Tuesday...Main headliner this period is a brief window of manageable marine conditions on Wednesday with lower sea heights and less wind trending. Even much of Thursday offers opportunity but by mid to late afternoon, the leading edge of an Arctic High will crank up NW-N winds in a hurry and by Thursday night the ocean will become perilous again. Expect deteriorating marine conditions late Thursday afternoon and Advisory conditions all of Thursday night. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As OF 3 AM Wednesday... Chilly high building in from the north Saturday to bring an abating N wind that will veer slightly. Additional veer to E early Sunday as a weak boundary develops along the coast. Later Sunday the wedge will break down, bringing a rapid turn to the S or SW. Wind speeds will be on the rise as a cold front approaches from the NW but advisory not expected at this time, but cautionary headlines are possible.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ250-252-254. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MBB

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