Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 220628 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 228 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A seasonably cool weekend is on tap followed by a brief warm-up Monday. A reinforcing shot of dry and cool air Monday night will set the stage for dry weather and seasonable temperatures this upcoming week. A low pressure system will approach the area late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1005 PM Friday...Cold front and all associated convection now well offshore. Dew points are crashing and clear skies will prevail overnight. Cold advection slated for the remainder of the period to yield a breezy night and low temps in the upper 40s to around 50. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Friday...A crisp Fall airmass will build into the area over the weekend. Expect full sunshine and decreasing winds but also temperatures below climatology by roughly 5 degrees by both day and night as highs fall short of 70 and nighttime lows dip into the 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 3 PM Saturday...In wake of a dry frontal passage Monday night, continentally dry air will be refreshed into the region Tuesday, transitioning to a nearly locked high pressure wedge configuration of longevity Wednesday into next weekend. The implications regarding sensible weather begins with notably cooler minimum temperatures inland versus the coast in NE flow, with spits of -RA favored near the coast beginning Thursday and extending into next Saturday. Maximum temperatures will run near normal this period, but minimums may settle above average over the eastern zones as a maritime influence appears likely.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 06Z...SKC/VFR. Cold air advection in wake of a cold front moving farther offshore this morning, will impart moderately gusty and dry northwest winds, easing late in the day. Ideal flight conditions tonight amid a crisp and clear atmosphere with W-WNW wind 5 knots or less and plenty stars. Extended Outlook...Expect VFR Saturday night through Wednesday. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1005 PM Friday...Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for post-frontal winds overnight. Front is now moving across the waters and will be followed by strong and gusty winds with seas up to around 5 ft. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Friday...Fairly robust cool advection and high pressure moving in through Saturday morning before the gradient starts to ease. Advisory flags likely to be flying until afternoon or evening, with northern zones likely abating a bit after their southern counterparts. The high to our west starts to move eastward Saturday night and should sprawl across a good part of the Carolinas and Gulf States by Sunday allowing for wind speeds to drop off especially later in the day. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 3 AM Saturday...Tuesday begins turbulent on the waters as a moderate to heavy chop is instigated by frisky NE winds in wake of a dry cold front. A small craft advisory or an exercise caution statement will be needed and likely already in effect by daybreak Tuesday. A stubborn high pressure wedge will maintain a relatively tight packing of the pressure gradient Wednesday and Thursday and this may be a prolonged series of caution headlines and not ideal boating conditions as fresh NE winds maintain moderate windspeeds. No TSTMS or restrictions to visibility expected this period.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 1005 AM Friday...Looks like between the hours of 1 AM and 5 AM for the next chance for the Lower Cape Fear River to spill out of it`s banks for some more minor coastal flooding. The following are high tides for the gage on the Lower Cape Fear River of downtown Wilmington thru Sunday... High tide 3:23 AM on Sat. High tide 3:56 PM on Sat. High tide 4:22 AM on Sun. High tide 4:53 PM on Sun. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for NCZ107. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ254- 256. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250- 252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...8 NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...III AVIATION...Colby Tides/Coastal Flooding...ILM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.