Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 290532 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 132 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL FORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 132 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA SO WE SHOULD BE PCPN FREE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME EARLIER PRECIPITATION WE ARE FORECASTING A CONVERGENCE OF TEMP AND DEW POINT DOWN IN THE 70S OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT TO SEE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD FOG AS CONTINUED MIXING FROM A STEADY NE FLOW WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING THICK OR WIDESPREAD. REMAINDER OF FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOKS ON TRACK SO MINOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED SOME TEMPS AND DEW POINTS ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS TIME AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF POPS AND QPF.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD WITH MAXIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS FOR PRECIP INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA ALOFT AND A WIMPY SURFACE PATTERN. THERE ARE 10 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR ISOLATED SEA BREEZE OR PIEDMONT TROUGH STORMS WHICH ARE MAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. 20 POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH BUT THE BEST LIFT SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR THE AREA WHEN INSTABILITY IS AT A MINIMUM. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP TO START THE PERIOD AND WILL MEANDER SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. UPPER FORCING IS WEAK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND FORECAST PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. GUIDANCE VARIES THEREAFTER AS TO HOW FAR SE THIS BOUNDARY WILL TRAVEL BEFORE STALLING. THE GFS IS NOW QUITE DRY FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE...AND EVEN THE ECMWF HAS DRIED OUT FOR SUN/MON AS WELL. WPC KEEPS THE FRONT ALIGNED ON THE COAST SUNDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT MONDAY...SO WILL HEDGE SOMEWHAT DRIER AND LESS UNSETTLED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW CHC POP EACH AFTN. A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER VORT SWINGS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVERHEAD. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO...WARMER WELL INLAND WHERE MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THANKS TO THE SE PUSH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE TERMINALS AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE-E...EXCEPT E-SE 6-12 KT AFTER SUNRISE INTO EARLY EVENING. SCT CU/SC 2-4K EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM AT KFLO/KLBT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THIS SAME PATTERN HAS YET TO YIELD FOG THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 10Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. BEST CONFIDENCE OF ANY IFR WOULD BE AT KMYR. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 132 AM WEDNESDAY...ENE WINDS OF 10 KTS WITH SEAS OF AROUND 3 FT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AMZ256 AND AMZ272 HAS DIMINISHED AND DO NOT HAVE ANY POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS HAVE COME DOWN TO AROUND 4 FT OVER THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES AND AROUND 3 FEET NEAR SHORE. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH WELL TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME S TO SW OVER THE WATERS. SPEEDS OF 15 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL REMAINS IN QUESTION. CURRENT THINKING IS THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A WEAK GRADIENT WITH WIND SPEEDS LIKELY REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DIRECTION WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE HOWEVER...WITH PERIODS OF NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE W/SW WINDS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWEST LATE FRI INTO SAT WHEN WINDS BECOME VARIABLE...AND HIGHEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SW WINDS BECOME PREDOMINANT AGAIN.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MAC/8 SHORT TERM...RAN LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MRR/8

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