Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 201849 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 149 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY WHEN A STORM MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. CLEAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW BACK EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD ENTERING THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS DRYING WILL CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST...REACHING THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. THIS IS DOWN TO A SUBTLE BUT SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE WINDS IN THE 2-4K FT AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT THE LAYER ABOVE 800 MB DRIES OUT IN PART DUE TO DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SURFACE THE WEDGE HOLDS ON WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW MAINTAINING A STRATUS DECK THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB REMAINS ELEVATED FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ANY LAYER AS BEING SATURATED. WILL NOT CARRY ANY MENTION OF DRIZZLE BUT MAY MENTION FOG EARLY SUN MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DO NOT GO CALM BUT THEY WILL BE LIGHT. COMBINED WITH RECENT PRECIP THESE CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT THOUGH LOWEST VIS WOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 3 OR 4 MILES...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ISSUANCE OF DFA. LOWS END UP A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO...A COMBINATION OF HIGHS 10 DEGREES TODAY BELOW CLIMO...LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND SUBTLE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING 5H SHORTWAVE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SOME DRYING MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY MAINLY OVER WRN ZONES. COASTAL LOCALES WILL STAY QUITE CLOUDY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION AND THE MORE PROXIMAL NATURE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. MOISTURE COMES WASHING BACK IN SUNDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION RIDES ATOP THE WEDGE AND SOME LIGHT RAIN APPEARS LIKELY AREA-WIDE MOST OF MONDAY. AS SURFACE WAVE MOVES RAPIDLY UP MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT PRECIP SHUTS OFF BUT CLOUD COVER WILL BE TOUGH TO SHAKE. SUNDAYS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. A SLIGHT ASSERTION OF THE WEDGE ON MONDAY COULD KNOCK INLAND TEMPS DOWN KEEPING SOME PLACES FROM REACHING 50. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WEDGE WILL HOLD ON WEAKLY ON TUESDAY SOME SERIOUS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN FLOODING INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN BREAKING OUT THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE DEEPER ASCENT KICKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING EVEN STRONGER FORCING WILL BE IMPINGING UPON THE REGION BUT THE SYNOPTIC DRY SLOT MAY BE AS WELL. TIMING THESE FACTORS WILL BE CRITICAL SINCE AS-IS IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION MIXED IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. BUT SHOULD THE DRY SLOT MOVE IN MORE SLOWLY THEN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE AS BL WINDS CRANK UP TO 50KT OR SO. STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY WEDNESDAY EVENING LEADING TO A CHILLY CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT BUT A MODERATION BACK TO CLIMO EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWING THE LATE WED FROPA MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL TEND TO BE THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 18Z...RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD CONFIDENCE IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. LEAST CONFIDENCE WILL BE KFLO/KLBT. IFR WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING EXCEPT EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT KFLO/KLBT. AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE WITH NE WINDS TO 8-12 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON SUN. RAIN LIKELY MON WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. MORE SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR EXPECTED TUE/WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAY WED. VFR THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT MAY BRIEFLY JUMP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. EXIT OF SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH REASSERTING ITSELF SO GRADIENT DOES NOT CHANGE A LOT. 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD OF ENHANCED NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PUSH SEAS...CURRENTLY RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT...TO 3 TO 5 FT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COAST WHERE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS 1 TO 2 FT CLOSER TO SHORE. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE CLOSE TO SCEC ADVISORY DO NOT PLAN TO RAISE ONE AT THIS TIME. MAINLY BECAUSE THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN A LITTLE UNDER WHAT WAS EXPECTED. GIVEN THE ALREADY MARGINAL NATURE OF THE EVENT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...THOUGH THE EVENING SHIFT MAY DECIDE TO RAISE ONE. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A FRONT WILL BE STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY WHILE A WEAK RIDGE/WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE LANDMASS. THE RESULTING NE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL AS WILL SEAS...BOTH PRECLUDING ANY ADVISORY/CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THE FRONT MOVES CLOSE TO IF NOT INTO THE FORECAST ZONES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND WILL GROW LIGHTER AND THE DIRECTION FORECAST MAY GET IFFY DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE FRONT GETS. BY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK OUT TO SEA AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. FLOW WILL TURN BACK TO OFFSHORE AND INCREASE BY A FEW KNOTS. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THOUGH QUIET TO START CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOSES INFLUENCE OVER THE LANDMASS AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MARCH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RAMP UP WIND AND SEAS LATE TUESDAY BUT MOSTLY TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED. WINDS LIKELY NOT TO SLACKEN MUCH WITH WED AFTERNOON FROPA, JUST A SHARP VEER IN DIRECTION. FLAGS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR

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