Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 211936 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 336 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. OTHER THAN A BIT OF CIRRUS OVERNIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AS A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOON AFTER SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SFC LOW/5H TROUGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TOMORROW EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...LEADING TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER THINK THE LIMITED STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF/ALONG THE FRONT SCATTERED. THUS WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC POP. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE USHERED OFF THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN WITH WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT JETTING AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO WED. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF LATE APRIL SUN AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO FLOW WILL WORK TO OFFSET THE ADVECTION. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WED AND WED NIGHT DRIES THE MID LEVELS OUT...DROPPING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 0.30 INCH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND NO PRECIP CHANCES. ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH LATE WED AS WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH. COMBINATION OF THESE 2 FEATURES SHOULD PRODUCE A NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS END UP IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH A FEW AREAS ALONG THE COAST HANGING IN THE UPPER 40S.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...WARMING TREND GETS UNDERWAY ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS OFF THE COAST. IT WILL BE FAIRLY GRADUAL HOWEVER AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOT ALLOWED TO DEVELOP DUE TO SOME DEEP AND BROAD TROUGHINESS OVER THE LAKES. A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY FORM LATE IN THE WEEK BUT IT SEEMS TOO FEEBLE TO LEAD TO MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. THIS MAY CHANGE ON SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 18Z...EXCELLENT AFTERNOON WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY BRISK NORTH WIND FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE FINALLY EXITS THE REGION. AN INVERSION WILL SET UP FAIRLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS DIE DOWN. SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT ALL THAT FAVORABLE...A LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND WILL AID IN FOG DEVELOPMENT...MVFR WORST CASE. TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE LIGHT FOG MIXES OUT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AMZ250/252 THROUGH 01Z TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. OVERNIGHT...SEAS WILL FALL TO AROUND 3-4 FT NORTHERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT SOUTHERN WATERS WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 20 KT LATE TUE JUST BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES. BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BUILD SEAS TO HEADLINE CRITERIA BUT 3 TO 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. COMBINATION OF TIGHT GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE TUE NIGHT. OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL QUICKLY DROP SEAS TO 2 TO 4 FT TUE NIGHT. GRADIENT WEAKENS DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS DROPPING FROM 15 TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WED MORNING DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS LATER WED AND WED NIGHT. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...WIND SWITCHES FROM ONSHORE TO SWRLY ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE INITIALLY VERY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 AS THE RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE AND A VERY EXPANSIVE LOW DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250- 252.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...BJR/TRA SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...43

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