Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 200535 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 135 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BRING A CHILLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN STEADILY SINCE DUSK AND WERE ALREADY BELOW 50 DEGREES IN MANY COMMUNITIES. THERE WAS A THIN VEIL OF JET CIRRUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVE... OTHERWISE THE SKY WAS CLEAR AS A BELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS WILL BE CALM AND THE COLUMN DRY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STRATOCUMULUS MAY MAKE A RUN FOR PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THESE CLOUDS SEEMS TOO PROGRESSIVE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE HIGH CENTER. THE BIGGEST PIECE OF THE FORECAST PUZZLE FOR TONIGHT REMAINS HOW COOL TEMPS WILL GET. THE RECORD LOWS FOR TONIGHT ARE IN THE MID 30S. WE ARE NOT FORECASTING RECORD LOWS...BUT CERTAINLY COLDER THAN WHAT IS NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WITH MID 40S MAINLY FOR THE BEACH COMMUNITIES. POCKETS OF UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED INLAND. THESE TEMPS WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST. SINCE TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO MORE OR LESS THE DEWPOINT VALUES... THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG. HOWEVER...THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR ABOVE THE IMMEDIATE SURFACE ARGUES AGAINST GROUND FOG BECOMING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DESPITE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...TANGIBLE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES BY DAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S MONDAY AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY. MINS EACH NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NW TO THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE COAST. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH STRONG UPPER SUPPORT. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...STACKED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THU AND FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW A SLOW BUT STEADY WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION AS THE 5H LOW EXITS WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS MAINTAINS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW CLIMO WED BUT WILL BE NEAR CLIMO FRI AND A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EVEN THE BULK OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE BEEN KEEPING THIS FEATURE WEAK WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT DROPS SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN AN OCCASIONAL RUN WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIES THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED 5H LOW AND A SFC LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OR OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL. FOR NOW DISCOUNTING THIS GIVEN THE LIMITED SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 06Z...AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LIGHT AND THERE IS EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...A SE-S RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL FOR AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN SCATTERED CUMULUS. HOWEVER BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS BY EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE OF THE VA-NC COAST BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. NNE WINDS THIS EVE WILL VEER TO ENE BY SUNRISE. A DEVELOPING LAND BREEZE MAY SHIFT WINDS MORE OFFSHORE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...BUT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS...BUT UP TO 3 FT ACROSS THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY MONDAY THEN QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND REMAIN WEAK. SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS WITH THE STRONGER VORT TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE AND BY AROUND 0600 UTC WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FAVORING THE HIGHER VALUES LATE. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN VALLEY. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM A SOLID 15 KT WED MORNING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY FRI. OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...COLBY NEAR TERM...RJD/COLBY SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM...3 AVIATION...8

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