Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 072349 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 649 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold and wet pattern will prevail into Saturday. Clear and cold conditions are expected from Sunday on through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Cold and wet conditions will prevail through the Near Term. A cold front will remain stalled offshore as an over-running pattern combines with a deeply moist column to produce periods of stratiform rain tonight and Friday. A series of upper disturbances moving along the leading edge of the H/5 L/W trough will enhance precip at times, with the next substantial bout of rain moving in from the SW this evening. The remainder of this afternoon will see a lull of sorts, with just some patchy light rain or drizzle. Still do not see flooding as a problem as due to dry antecedent soil conditions and event total QPFs of only around 1.5 inches spread out over the next 24 hours. Temperatures will remain on the cold side, with lows in the upper 30s tonight and highs in the mid 40s on Friday. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Two strong disturbances aloft approaching the area Friday night. The southern feature will be leading to flat cyclogenesis along the offshore frontal boundary and spreading rain across the area. The heaviest amounts will be near the coast, areas more proximal to the boundary. The northern feature will be driving a moisture-challenged cold front towards the region from the northwest. With regard to the rain event models continue to trend warmer with low level thermal profiles and p-type issues continue to seem very unlikely. Deep layer dry air will be offshore by midday Saturday and measurable rainfall likely shuts off. Saturday night the two systems aloft phase and surface low strengthens off New England coast, bolstering cold air advection locally. What remains questionable then is whether or not the upper system has any moisture left to wring out of the atmosphere Saturday night as it would take the form of (non-accumulating) snow showers. The GFS is the only operational model suggesting the possibility. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Extended forecast offers few changes this afternoon. A deep mid level trough will be in place across the eastern U.S. for the foreseeable future. This leads to a mostly dry and cold forecast. The only pops in the forecast have been with a potent shortwave diving down in the mid level flow late Tuesday into Wednesday. Guidance has backed off light dynamically induced precipitation which was a stretch to begin with as has the official forecast. As for temperatures, not a whole lot of change here either. Temperatures will be well below normal throughout, with the coldest mornings (widespread mid 20s) both on Monday and Thursday mornings. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 23Z...A bit of a lull in the precipitation for the next few hours but then more rain is expected throughout the taf time. Expect conditions to deteriorate after 03z-05z time frame as next wave of low pressure along with some isentropic lift will bring next round of a light steady rain across the region with low ceilings and fog. Moderate confidence in MVFR going to high confidence in IFR after 08Z and pretty much staying that way through the rest of the forecast period...with LIFR conditions after 14z. Winds will be light and variable becoming more northerly around 5-8kts. After end of forecast period concern will be for wind shear above 5-7KFT as winds shift from NE to SW and increase to over 40kts...but that will be after the valid period of these tafs. Extended Outlook...MVFR Sat/showers ending. VFR Sun through Tue.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Expect north winds through the period as a stalled cold front east of the waters brings periods of cold rain. WInds will generally range around 15 kts but can go higher at times as a series of disturbances move NE along the stalled front. Seas will range 3 to 5 ft well offshore, with 2 ft closer to shore. Have added Exercise Caution headlines for AMZ250 and AMZ256 starting at midnight for enhanced winds and seas. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Gradient pinched between strong high pressure and offshore frontal boundary through the period keeping conditions unsettled. The gradient and resulting winds appear to get increased just enough for marginal SCA Friday night as flat wave of low pressure ridges NE along the boundary. Behind this wave will be a shift from N or NE flow to NW flow that will remain for the duration whilst winds and seas remain near or just shy of SCEC criteria. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Sunday will see northwest winds of 15-20 knots. The cold air advection will ease late Sunday into early Tuesday with westerly winds of 10-15 knots. Another surge of cold air arrives later Tuesday with winds increasing once again to 15-20 knots. Seas should stay below flag criteria with the possible exception of late Tuesday when some six footers may develop across the outer waters. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MAC MARINE...

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