Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 271726 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1226 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Chilly temperatures this morning will quickly rebound this week as a warm front lifts north, leading to near record high temperatures by mid-week. A cold front will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday and Thursday morning, followed by a return to seasonable temperatures late week. Even cooler temperatures are expected by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 AM Monday...No changes to the forecast this morning other than to adjust hourly temperature grids slightly based on trends. Expect a mostly sunny and warm day with some increase in high cloudiness late. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Monday...Primary headline is abnormal warmth this period as we again approach or exceed 80 degrees Tuesday and especially Wednesday, ahead of a moderately strong cold front. Shower/TSTM chances remain low-end until Wednesday night into early Thursday as convergence along the frontal passage sweeps across the area. Rain amounts even then do not look substantial and will put little if any dent in what looks to be a mounting dryish albeit mild to warm late winter. Instability and moisture parameters warrant isolated TSTMS Tuesday, and late Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 AM Monday...Cold front will be off the coast as the period begins with strong cold advection underway. Showers may linger in the area for the first part of Thu morning, especially along the coast but any activity would be short lived. Canadian high builds in from the northwest Thu into Fri under broad 5h trough aloft. Reinforcing shot of cold air arrives Fri afternoon, along with an increase in northwest winds and a drop in relative humidity. The center of the surface high settles over the area Sat morning, sliding just off the coast into Sun. Pattern aloft transitions from broad troughing to flat flow, which helps push the surface high off the coast Sun. Temperatures near climo Thu and Fri will dip below climo Fri night and Sat. Temperatures will bounce back to climo Sat night as the return flow develops on the backside of the high. Increasing southerly flow Sun combined with westerly flow aloft will push temps several degrees above climo as the period ends. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 18Z...VFR conditions expected through the period. Ceilings develop and lower this evening as a warm front moves across. There may be a few showers as well but coverage does not warrant mention in TAFS. Extended Outlook...VFR, except showers and ISOLD TSTMS late WED. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 AM Monday...No changes to the coastal waters forecast with the mid morning update. Previous discussion follows: Manageable seas today, SE winds 10-15 KT will produce a little chop with an underlying ESE wave train every 8-9 seconds. Winds inshore will pick up late in the day gusting to 18 KT at times with a slight sea breeze enhancement. No TSTMS expected through tonight, but as a warm front lifts across the waters tonight, mist or patchy drizzle and light rain could reduce visibilities to less than 2-3 NM. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Monday...S-SW winds this period will gradually increase, ramping up wind-waves, then Advisory conditions by Wednesday afternoon ahead of an approaching moderately strong cold front. Even Tuesday, with a vigorous afternoon sea breeze expect gusts to 20 KT or better at times, and bumpy seas. 3 to 4 foot seas late Tuesday will build to 4 to 6 ft later in the day Wednesday. Dominant wave periods of 5-7 seconds will make for fairly steep wave faces. Isolated to scattered TSTMS late Wednesday night and very early Thursday should be expected. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 AM Monday...Strong cold front will be either moving across the waters or just east of the waters as the period begins. Offshore flow will drop from a solid 15 kt in the morning to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Weak offshore flow continues Thu night into Fri before another surge of cold air pushes across the waters Fri afternoon/evening. This surge will push northwest flow to 15 to 20 kt with gusts approaching 25 kt. Seas will trend down, from 3 to 6 ft Thu morning to 1 to 3 ft Fri morning, as offshore flow decreases. Increasing winds later Fri and Fri night will result in a slight bump in seas with dominant wave becoming a short period wind wave. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...III AVIATION...SHK MARINE...

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