Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 160622 CCA AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 122 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Breezy and warm weather will last through today before a cold front drops south through the area this evening. Cool high pressure will extend down from the north on Saturday. Another frontal system should affect the Carolinas on Sunday. High pressure will then become anchored well off the Southeast coast early next week providing mild weather into the middle of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 800 PM Thursday...A very mild winter`s night is in store for the people within the ILM CWA. Some minor tweaking of sfc temps and dewpoints based on latest readings and trends. This also includes the local winds closer to the immediate coast where latest wind directions are from the SSW as opposed to the forecast of SW-WSW directions in the current fcst. This a result of the resultant wind boundary, aka sea breeze, pushing inland. This will have temporary repercussions with temps/dewpts and winds before this mesoscale phenomena fades back to overall synoptic flow. Previous....................................................... As of 300 PM Thursday...A very robust west to southwest flow will continue to be provided by surface high pressure under what is mostly a zonal flow aloft. A broad shortwave will push a front just to the north of the area by late Friday. The near term period should remain mostly dry with only slight chance pops encroaching on the northern areas late. The primary headlines remain the warmth and winds. Overnight lows tonight under continued breezy conditions will not drop much down mostly remaining above 60. Guidance is advertising Friday`s highs may even be a degree or two warmer than todays readings via good downslope flow just off the surface. Gusty conditions as well. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...High pressure wedging in from the north behind backdoor cold front to start the period. The air behind the boundary will be seasonably cool for Saturday but widespread cloud cover will keep lows a bit elevated above seasonable norms, which are still in the upper 30s. Measurable rainfall will tend to remain north of the area with the upper level forcing, but will maintain some low POPs as the stray hundredth of an inch here or there tough to rule out. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Cold front will be offshore to start Sunday morning with cool, but not cold, high pressure moving overhead through the day. Temps Sunday will climb to near normal or slightly above, with much drier air advecting into the region allowing for ample sunshine. The front to the south will waver and lift back to the north Sunday night into early Monday morning as a warm front. This will be the beginning of a very warm period for the upcoming week, but may be accompanied by a few showers into Monday morning. Soundings suggest increasing saturation, but forcing is weak, so the front may manifest only as increasing cloud cover rather than showers. Will carry inherited SCHC/low CHC into Monday. Strong WAA develops thereafter, persisting at least into Wednesday as a summer like synoptic setup develops. Bermuda high pressure offshore and amplified mid-level ridging across the southeast will drive temps to well above normal values, near 80 Tue/Wed, with scattered WAA showers possible during the aftns. An abrupt changes occurs Thursday as a shortwave and backdoor front suppress the ridge and bring a wedge of high pressure into the Carolinas. This will return temps back to seasonable levels with better chances for rain. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 06Z...High pressure offshore will give us southwest flow through the forecast period which will increase through today and become gusty as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Kept previous tempo group for a few hours with possible MVFR/IFR ceiling this morning. Ceilings will drop to MVFR with approach and passage of cold front this evening mainly around 00z through 03z at which time winds will diminish to around 10 kts and shift around to the NW and N. Have included some light rain possible in inland TAFS, but pcp looks like it will be lacking with the front. Also expect some sea fog which could brush up against the coast but should remain to the east of coastal terminals this afternoon. Extended Outlook...SHRA/MVFR/tempo IFR Fri night-Sun morning. Becoming VFR Sun. Tempo MVFR/IFR/SHRA cig/vsby Sun night/Mon. VFR Tue.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 815 PM Thursday...WWAs currently in effect...SCA for the ILM NC Waters and a SCEC for the ILM SC Waters. A somewhat pinched gradient will exist across the local waters which will lie between the High anchored well offshore from the SE States and the slowly approaching cold front from the NW-N. The cold front will slow its SE progression as a result of it becoming more parallel to the WSW to ENE flow aloft. Once this occurs, the front will eventually stall. Significant seas will run 3 to 6 ft with the 6 footers confined north of Little River Inlet. The overall seas will be a combination of 6 second period wind driven waves and a 2 to 3 foot SE ground swell at 11 second periods. Previous..................................................... As of 300 PM Thursday...Southwest winds of 15-20 knots will continue through the period as high pressure resides offshore. There may be a period this evening when winds briefly eclipse 20 knots. Wave guidance is showing 4-6 feet with the higher seas mostly confined to the North Carolina waters. Although its marginal, will go ahead and issue a Small Craft Advisory through Friday for these waters. A SCEC will continue for the remainder of the waters. Some sea fog remains possible as well. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Gusty NE winds Friday night as cold air high pressure wedge builds in from the north following near term backdoor FROPA. Though some flags will be in effect leading up the short term it appears now according to WNA/SWAN that conditions will be just below. SCEC headlines certainly possible for a brief period however. NE winds abate on Saturday and then turn onshore and then southerly as the boundary lifts back to the north. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Cold front will be offshore Sunday morning with high pressure ridging down from the NE thereafter. This brings gusty winds Sunday of 10-15 kts, with directions veering to the E/NE by Monday morning. The surface high will shift offshore and take up position as Bermuda type ridge Monday and Tuesday, driving increasing return flow and SW winds around 10 kts through the middle of next week. Wave heights of 3-4 ft will be common across the waters Sunday with an E/NE wind wave predominant. Seas will deamplify into early next week before a SE swell and SW wind wave amplifies late, pushing seas back to 3-4 ft late Tuesday.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ250-252. && $$ NEAR TERM...DCH/SHK SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...RGZ

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