Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 040537 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1237 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHARPLY COLDER AIR INVADING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT IS STILL SOUTH OF CHARLESTON BUT IS PROBABLY LESS THAN 15 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR. DENSE FOG CONTINUES AND PROBABLY WON`T IMPROVE INLAND UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OTHER THAN CHANGES TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND WIND SPEEDS...FEW EDITS WERE NEEDED ON THIS LAST NEAR-TERM UPDATE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DISCUSSION FROM 1030 PM FOLLOWS... MAIN UPDATE HAS BEEN TO RAISE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES FOR ALL LOCATIONS THAT CURRENTLY REMAIN IN THE COLD AIR WEDGE. I PROMISE...THIS WEDGE WILL BREAK! MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY OPTIMISTIC IN THE NEAR TERM WITH THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...AND ITS EVENTUAL LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. EVEN THE 1ST LOOK AT 0000Z GUIDANCE HAS IT PARTIALLY THRU THE FA AT THIS TIME. ANYWAY...WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOWER INLAND AND NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OVERNIGHT. LATEST KLTX VWP DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH DATA TO DISPLAY THE WINDS AT 1K FT...INDICATIVE OF NO CLOUDS OTHER THEN THE DENSE FOG AT THE SFC AND/OR A VERY SHALLOW STRATUS DECK THAT IS UNRECOGNIZABLE BY THE KLTX VWP. THUS...ONCE THE WEDGE FINALLY BREAKS...IT SHOULD DO SO IN A QUICK MANNER. ONCE AGAIN CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE OVERNIGHT POPS...FURTHER REDUCING THEM TO EITHER NONE AT ALL OR JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT EVENTUALLY PROGRESSES ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AGAIN...WITH EITHER STEADY OR RISING OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE IS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR WEDNESDAY AMID WHAT HAS BEEN A FRIGID WINTER...WITH FEBRUARY RANKING AS THE 5TH COLDEST FEBRUARY IN 141 YEARS OF RECORD KEEPING WHICH CRUNCHES OUT TO ABOUT A 1 IN 34 YEAR OCCURRENCE OF COLD. THE OTHER NOTABLE HIGHLIGHT IS RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT THEN FOLLOWED BY A BITING INTRUSION OF GLACIAL AIR AND LINGERING PCPN. STORM TOTAL QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM THE BULK OF IT THURSDAY...LOOKS TO BE NEARLY A HALF INCH ACROSS SE NC AND LOCALITIES WEST OF I-95 AND CLOSER TO A QUARTER INCH ACROSS NE SC AND COASTAL SC. POPPED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER THURSDAY GIVEN JET SUPPORT AND SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK. SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE DROPS...WHERE MAXIMUMS THURSDAY MINUS MINIMUMS FRIDAY ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...AND JUST A FRESH REMINDER OLD MAN WINTER STILL HAS BREATHINGS INTO EARLY MARCH. AN OVERLAP OF NEAR TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING PCPN WARRANTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF LIGHT SNOW 8Z-10Z OR 3AM- 5AM EARLY FRIDAY. NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATED BY A BROAD TROUGH TROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME SIGNS OF RELAXING BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY THE TROUGH USHERS IN YET ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDES ALONG THE OLD FRONT OFFSHORE SATURDAY WARRANTING LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. MARCH SUNSHINE WONT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO WARM THINGS UP WITH HIGHS ONLY THE 50S BUT THE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT LOWS TO THE MIDDLE 30S. LETHARGIC WARMUP CONTINUES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES AT THE SURFACE. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF THE FASTER SOLUTION. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 06Z...VERY LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXIST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO TRANSIT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...LIKELY TAKING SEVERAL HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK TO LIFT PAST THE ILM AND LBT AIRPORTS. BEHIND THE FRONT VSBYS WILL PROBABLY IMPROVE AT THE LBT/FLO/ILM AIRPORTS...HOWEVER CRE/MYR MAY REMAIN IN THE SOUP AS DENSE SEA FOG GENERATED BY THE INTERACTION OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITH VERY COLD NEARSHORE OCEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. ACCELERATING SOUTH WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL NOT MIX DOWN EFFECTIVELY TO THE GROUND UNTIL LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON. UNTIL THEN THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS AS 1000 FOOT WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO 30-40 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING IFR WITH LIGHT RAIN AND FALLING TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE SINCE THE LAST UPDATE WAS TO LOWER WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THROWING OUT THE 00Z GFS MODEL WHICH HAS NO CLUE WHERE THE FRONT IS...THE 00Z NAM AND RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RUC SHOW SURFACE WINDS VERY SLOW TO INCREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS THE VERY COLD SEA SURFACE WATERS. MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY OUT THERE IS 7-SECOND SWELL BEING PUSHING IN FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFRIENDLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AN ADVISORY MAY NOT BE NEEDED UNTIL THURSDAY...AS THE WARM AIR MAY STRUGGLE REACHING THE COLD DENSE AIR ABOVE THE CHILLY SSTS IN PLACE. IF NOT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN CERTAINLY BEHIND IT...AS VERY COLD AIR SPILLS OVER THE WATERS...WITH AT A MINIMUM 30 KT GUSTS EXPECTED LATE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE OTHER HAZARD PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEA FOG AS BALMY AIR TRACKS OVER THE FRIGID WATERS...REDUCING VSBYS AT TIMES. RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT MAY ALSO RESTRICT LINE OF SIGHT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS INITIALLY AND MOST OF FRIDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AS WE HAVE SEEN MANY TIMES THIS SEASON THE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE HIGH MOVES IN WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO AROUND TEN KNOTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WINDS WILL BE WEAKLY FORCED AS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN DEVELOPS. IF ANYTHING WINDS MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ALOFT WITH NEGLIGIBLE SURFACE FEATURES. SIGNIFICANT SEAS YIELD NO SURPRISES WITH SOME HIGHER VALUES FRIDAY...MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE OUTER WATERS. BY LATER SATURDAY VALUES DROP TO 1-3 FEET. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-053-055. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ054-056. NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099- 105-107-109. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ106-108-110. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...TRA

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