Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 291814 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 214 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BRING WARM LATE SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...ALONG WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST NEXT WEEK...INCREASING LOCAL RAIN CHANCES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 214 PM FRIDAY...THE FRONT HAS MOVED TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AND THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE 925 MB THETA-E GRADIENT AND THE LATEST BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER CONFIRMS THE BEST MOISTURE IS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE 14 UTC HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A LUMBERTON TO BURGAW LINE SO HAVE ADDED A 20 PERCENT POP IF THE DEEPER MOISTURE DOES SNEAK FARTHER SOUTH BY THE END OF THE DAY. CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 70.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 214 PM FRIDAY...A FAIR WEATHER LABOR WEEKEND ON TAP WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO ACCOMPANY AN OVERALL DRYISH COLUMN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING AND MOISTURE RETURN TO POP A FEW SHOWERS OR A STORM BRIEFLY ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG AND NEAR THE SEA BREEZE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...WITH CHANCES LOOKING SLIGHTLY BETTER SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS PRESENTLY ACROSS THE REGION ARE NOT ADVECTING MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE SEA AND MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST AND COASTAL INTERIOR. PATCHES OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR COOL POCKETS OR PROTECTED COASTAL LOCATIONS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY VERSUS WIDESPREAD. MAXIMUMS SAT/SUN LOW/MID 90S WEST OF I-95 AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FARTHER EAST...MINIMUMS SUN/MON MORNING GENERALLY 70-76 AND MILDEST NEAR THE COAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 214 PM FRIDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIP FARTHER SOUTH AS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING AS A VERY BROAD RIDGE TAKES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH A VERY BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS PIEDMONT TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE THROUGH THE ALMOST ZONAL FLOW ON MONDAY ENHANCING CONVECTION MON AFTN AND A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL CARRY THESE SHWRS/TSTMS TOWARD THE COAST. THE PCP WATER REACHES UP ABOVE 2 INCHES MON NIGHT INTO TUES AFTN. A DEEPER DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE IN BEHIND SHORTWAVE LATE TUES WITH PCP WATER VALUES DROPPING TO 1.75 INCHES. OVERALL WILL SEE A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPS RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCED BY SOME PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT...ESPECIALLY MON INTO TUES. DEWPOINT TEMPS UP ABOVE 70 WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH CLOSE TO 90 ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE MID 90S INLAND.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT THIS AM BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INLAND TERMINALS MAY SEE WINDS BECOME S TO SSW WHILE COASTAL TERMINALS BECOME S TO SE. SPEEDS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 10 KT. WITH THE S TO SE WINDS...AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SUCH THAT FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...TAFS HAVE MVFR FOG AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 500 FEET BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG AFTER 06Z. BURN OFF IN THE AM WILL DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF THE FOG BUT VFR IS EXPECTED AFT 14Z. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR FOR OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS SAT AFTERNOON. INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 214 PM FRIDAY...CURRENTLY SEEING THE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION ON THE NEAR SHORE BUOYS AND RADAR. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BUOYS ARE SHOWING A 2 FOOT DOMINANT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON WILL AS SE SWELL MIXED IN. WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET UNTIL MORNING. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 214 PM FRIDAY...A GOOD WEEKEND ON THE WATERS WEATHER-WISE AS MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET IN AN EVOLVING AND BUILDING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN. SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT SAT WILL BECOME S 10 TO 15 KT SUNDAY...WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FORMING INLAND TO SHARPEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY. SEAS 2 - 2.5 FT EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 2 FT AT 8-9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 1 FOOT EVERY 4 SECONDS. ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND FAVORED LATE NIGHT AND THROUGH EARLY MORNING. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 214 PM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH OFF SHORE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. THE FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTN. THE WEAK SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL KEEP SEAS 1 TO 3 FT WITH A SLIGHT CHOP EACH AFTN.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...RAN/DRH

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