Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 012335 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 735 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...COMBINATION OF MORNING STRATUS...A BIT OF WHICH CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF BLADEN...COLUMBUS...AND ROBESON COUNTIES...AND SUBSTANTIAL CIRRUS DECK HAS THUS FAR LIMITED DIURNAL HEATING. SOME PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA HAS BROKEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE OUT OF THE PICTURE...BUT WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE STRATUS DO THINK TEMPS WILL RISE AT A MORE STEADY RATE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF THE THICKER CIRRUS SHIELD...QUITE EVIDENT UP STREAM ON SATELLITE...WILL PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM REACHING 90 TODAY. SO WENT AHEAD AND KNOCKED BACK HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH THE UPDATE. THE LACK OF HEATING HAS ALSO RESULTED IN A LACK OF INSTABILITY. SO EVEN IF A SEA BREEZE OR OTHER TRIGGERING MECHANISM WERE AVAILABLE DO NOT THINK MUCH IF ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL HEATING AND LATE DAY SEA BREEZE MAY YET YIELD A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE BULK OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN ON THE DRY SIDE. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHC POP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PLAN TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POP OVERNIGHT AS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THIS AND GENERATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL LONG WAVE H/5 TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ALOFT OVER EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THE SURFACE WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH INLAND. THIS COMBINATION WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH P/W VALUES UP AROUND 2 INCHES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FOR THESE REASONS WE CAN EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES WILL BE IFFY SO DO NOT THINK WE CAN YET PIN DOWN WHEN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL HAPPEN. OTHER TRIGGERS TO CONVECTION WILL ALSO EXIST...WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE SEA BREEZE FRONT FURTHER COMPLICATING THE PICTURE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIVE A BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FLATTEN THE MID LEVEL FLOW LEAVING A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL ACT TO DEEPEN LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND ENHANCE LOCALIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DECENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCE SHEER AND SHOULD KEEP SEA BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST. ALSO WILL DRIVE ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND DEBRIS CLOUDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH EAST MON INTO TUES AND SHOULD PUSH ANY LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST. THEREFORE MAY SEE LESS COVERAGE FOR TUES BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER FRONT OR MAY ENHANCE LEESIDE TROUGHING ONCE AGAIN COME WED. OVERALL EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...CLOSE TO 90 DURING THE DAY AND 70 TO 75 AT NIGHT. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NW OF KFLO/KLBT SHOULD WEAKEN TO SHOWERS AS IT MOVES SE TO THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS THIS EVENING. BY MIDNIGHT BEST SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT TO THE COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. BROKEN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. VFR WITH WEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING. BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WINDS BECOME SSW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE IN THE PERIOD AS GRADIENT RELAXES. ALTHOUGH PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT IT WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...GIVING THE NEARSHORE GRADIENT A CHANCE TO RELAX. SEAS WILL RUN 4 TO 5 FT WELL AWAY FROM SHORE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO 3 TO 4 FT AS THU MORNING. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL PUMP WINDS UP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND 4 TO 7 FT ON FRIDAY. EXPECT THAT WE WILL POST EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY FOR THESE CONDITIONS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE RIDING AROUND MAIN MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTH. NOT EXPECTING THIS BOUNDARY TO REACH INTO OUR WATERS...BUT SHOULD ACT TO TIGHTEN GRADIENT FLOW INTO EARLY SAT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH SAT AFTN BUT PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE MAY ACT TO INCREASE WINDS AGAIN THROUGH SAT AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT SEAS UP NEAR 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS WITH SOME 6 FTERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SAT...TO DECREASE DOWN TO 3 TO 5 FT AND KEEP ON A DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BY MONDAY AND FLOW MAY BECOME MORE OFF SHORE WHICH WILL DROP SEAS EVEN FURTHER. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...REK NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MRR

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