Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 271010 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 610 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...BRINGING SOME ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY AS AMPLE SUNSHINE CONTINUES TO MODIFY A DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME LOWER 90S OVER OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP AND DRY COLUMN SO A RAIN-FREE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEAR TERM. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT WE CAN EXPECT SOME CU DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL READINGS...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS ALLOWING MINIMUMS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. REALLY THE ONLY INTERESTING NOTE WILL BE THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT MOVES CLOSE TO THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS IS COURTESY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFYING OVER THE APPALACHIANS. EVEN THIS FEATURE IS NOT APPARENT IN GUIDANCE AS THERE IS NO WIND SHIFT NOTED. NO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NINETY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES SOUTH AND WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...BASICALLY BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WITH THE MORE LOCALIZED FEATURES...THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH PROVIDING THE CATALYST FOR POPS. WITH THE GUIDANCE TRENDING MORE TOWARD A WEAKER TROUGH THE PAST DAY OR SO...WHAT WAS SHAPING UP TO BE A SOMEWHAT WET WEEKEND NOW LOOKS MORE MARGINAL. PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO INCREASE MARKEDLY FROM JUST OVER AN INCH TO OVER TWO INCHES BY MONDAY. THIS WARRANTS A CONTINUATION OF THE CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REIGNS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AND NEARLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AND THEREFORE NOT CREATE ANY AVIATION IMPACTS. GIVEN SLIGHTLY INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND DRIER LOW-LEVELS...DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR PREVAILS WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...GUSTS SUBSIDE AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS FRI. INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO TONIGHT FOR OUR NC WATERS. FURTHER SOUTH OUR WATERS ARE MORE SHELTERED...ALTHOUGH SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS IN THE 3 TO 6 FT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM THE NORTH TODAY TO THE NW OVERNIGHT AS CRISTOBAL MOVES NE AND WELL AWAY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS CRISTOBAL MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST AT TEN KNOTS GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. I CANT SEE ANYTHING THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL MARINE...REK/SHK

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