Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 290611 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 211 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE BUILDS WEST AND BRINGS A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE EAST COAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 8:30 PM MONDAY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED FOR THE EVENING AS THE LAST OF THE DAYS CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE GEORGETOWN AND HORRY COUNTIES. EXPECT TO CLEAR THESE LAST TWO REMAINING COUNTIES FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH SHORTLY. THE ANTICIPATED UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FOLLOWING. BIG CHANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM RECENTLY EXPERIENCED...WITH MINIMUMS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY... WHILE A LARGE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE BEACHES. FLO COULD APPROACH A DAILY RECORD LOW ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. FOR REFERENCE...HERE ARE THE DAILY RECORD LOWS FOR ILM AND FLO DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD: WILMINGTON NC RECORD LOWS...DATING BACK TO 1874 JULY 30: 61F (1914) JULY 31: 60F (1914) FLORENCE SC RECORD LOWS...DATING BACK TO 1948 JULY 30: 63F (1997) JULY 31: 62F (1997) PWATS WILL FALL TO 1.0-1.2 INCHES BY MID WEEK...SO POPS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. GIVEN THAT FORECAST HIGH TEMPS ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF OUR OCEAN TEMPS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP EITHER DAY...WHICH FURTHER LIMITS ANY PCPN CHANCES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...A DEEP 500MB TROUGH WILL PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...RETROGRADING ONLY SLIGHTLY NEXT WKND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WARMING TO NEAR-SEASONABLE LEVELS SUN/MON. AT THE SAME TIME...WHILE THU/FRI WILL LIKELY BE DRY THANKS TO W/SW MID-LEVEL FLOW AND PWATS AROUND 1.25 INCHES...THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE BETTER RAIN CHANCES. THE STALLED BOUNDARY WELL OFFSHORE WILL PUSH BACK TOWARDS THE COAST AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. AS THIS OCCURS...MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING SURFACE MOIST ADVECTION AS THE FRONT/TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE WILL CREATE MUCH HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES SAT/SUN/MON. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRESSURE ON THE TAIL END OF THIS BOUNDARY AND MOVE IT TOWARDS THE COAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK...IT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...FRONT HAS DROPPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE STRONG CONVECTION NOW WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY ON. LOOKING AT FAIR WEATHER SC/CU DURING THE DAY TUE...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUE TO PUMP ACROSS THE REGION UNDER NW-NE FLOW. THE COASTAL TERMS MAY VEER TO THE E BRIEFLY THIS AFTN. SPEEDS AT 5 TO 15 KT...DROPPING TO LESS THAN 5 KT AFTER SUNSET TUE. OVERALL... LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THRUOUT THE 06Z ISSUANCE PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR DUE TO MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 8:30 PM MONDAY...VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS AMZ 254 AT THIS TIME...BUT THEY WILL CLEAR THE WATERS TO THE EAST WITHIN THE HOURS. UPDATING THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID EVENING FOR 15-20 KT SW WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS. AS A COLD FRONT NEARS THE COAST...THE WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERALL BUT THE TSTM THREAT WILL INCREASE OVER THE WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO GET A FIX ON RADAR EVEN IF HEADING OUT ON THE ICW. SEAS A MIX OF S WAVES 3-4 FT AT 5-6 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-2 FT AT 8-9 SECONDS. SEAS WILL LESSEN TO 2-4 FT AND A WINDSHIFT TO THE NW AT 15 KT LOOKS TO OCCUR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK OVER THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...NORTH WINDS 10-15 KT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RELAX AND BECOME NORTHEAST AOB 10 KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 3 FT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE POST-FRONTAL GRADIENT WEAKENS. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...WHEN WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY BUT REMAIN AOB 10 KT. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 FT RANGE ON WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...STALLED COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL WAVER JUST EAST OF THE WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK...BEFORE SLOWLY PUSHING BACK TOWARDS THE COAST ON SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE COAST THU/FRI...E/NE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL BE THE RULE BOTH DAYS OF THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...BEFORE VEERING TO THE SE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS ON SATURDAY THANKS TO THE WESTWARD ADVANCE OF THE COASTAL TROUGH. SEAS WILL BE SIMILARLY UNIFORM...2-3 FT THU/FRI WITH A NE WIND WAVE DOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM...AND REMAINING 2-3 FT SATURDAY BUT WITH AN INCREASING SE WIND WAVE AND GROUND SWELL. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJR NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...BJR LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DCH

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