Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 261553 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1153 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front will remain in that area this afternoon before pushing northward on Tuesday ahead of a cold front. This cold front will slowly cross the region on Wednesday before moving off the coast on Thursday. Cooler and drier weather is expected by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1150 AM Monday...A stationary front will slowly shift northward as a warm from throughout the day. The model soundings and upper air sounding from mhx are showing moisture is generally contained below 700 millibars this morning. This will change with the frontal boundary moving to the north and deeper moisture is expected to return later today into Tuesday. The moisture will increase south of MYR and west of FLO and LBT. This evening and overnight cloud cover will increase with a chance of showers overnight. For temperatures, highs today will reach the middle 80s and lows will fall to around 70.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Monday...Amazingly, the models have the general idea of a closed low dropping south from the Great Lakes and becoming a cutoff low by the end of this period as the westerlies bypass this system by the end of this period. Like spokes on a bicycle, weak mid-level vorts or S/w trofs, rotating counter- clockwise around the upper low, will occasionally affect the FA this period. More-so when this upper low drops to the central Appalachians. These s/w`s will be able to interact with dynamics from the slow moving sfc cold front slithering across the FA. POPs will be advertised each day, likely hiest during Tue thru early Wed, due to the passage of the sfc low along the inverted sfc trof just off the coast. With the cold pool aloft partially reaching the area during the latter half of this period, increasing the lapse rates and instability due to the days insolation, the chance for thunderstorms will exist thruout this period. For temps, leaned toward the European MOS Guidance over the GFS Mos due to its recent and slightly better performance. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday...Big differences in the extended continue to cause lowered confidence for late this week. While the guidance all shows a deep trough closing off across the OH VLY, the evolution thereafter becomes quite muddled. The ECM continues to be a strong/slow/west outlier with this feature as it digs into the lower Appalachians and then actually retrogrades to the NW through Saturday before finally ejecting late in the wknd. The GFS/CMC are more in line with a sharp digging through Thursday and then lifting off to the NE through New England Friday and into the wknd. Although the ECM has been consistent the last few days, the GFS solution is still preferred as a retrograde west of the upper low into a +3 SD ridge seems unlikely. WPC cannot rule out any solution at this time however, so a blended forecast is preferred with highest weight on the GFS. This upper low will determine the passage of a surface cold front which continues to slow in forecast guidance. Favoring the GFS, FROPA is now expected early Thursday, with cool and dry weather expected Fri-Sun. In fact, temps Fri-Sun may fall slightly below climo for both highs and lows as the first fall-like airmass of the season advects into the Carolinas beneath Canadian high pressure. Will note that if the ECM solution verifies, the front won`t cross until Saturday, leaving much more unsettled weather through the week, along with continued above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 12Z...A washed out front will remain nearly stationary and dissipate today. Predominately easterly flow, a bit more northeasterly early on. There will be quite a bit of a high stratocu deck this morning, more scattered by this afternoon. Tonight some fog entering the picture well after midnight, mainly inland. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Chance for SHRA/TSRA each day through Wednesday, with morning fog/stratus also possible. VFR Thursday and Friday. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1152 AM Monday...A stationary front over the waters will slowly move north this afternoon with the winds mainly from the east-northeast to east between 10 to 15 knots. seas will range between 2 and 4 feet with a 1 to 2 foot east- southeast swell of an underlying 1 to 2 foot east-southeast ground swell around 9 seconds. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Monday...Will see a veering trend to the winds from easterly at the start of this period, to south southwest by the end of this period. Weak sfc low to move along the inverted sfc trof Tue. A sfc cold front to drop SE at a snail`s pace this period, moving from the Appalachians early Tue, to the local waters by early Thu. Wind speeds may become temporarily northerly up to 15 kt after the low passes by early wed, otherwise looking at around 10 kt for speeds with the sfc pg relaxing up until the sfc cold front reaches the coast. Significant seas will run 2 to 3 ft, possibly and briefly up to 4 ft at the start of this period due to the passage of the sfc low. Wind driven waves to dominate thru early Wed with periods running 4 to 6 seconds. The ESE, 1 to 2 foot ground swell at 9 to 10 seconds. LONG TERM/THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday...Still some uncertainty in the extended with respect to a frontal passage, but attm expect FROPA to occur Thursday with W/SW winds around 10 kts becoming NW late. High pressure will build in behind this front creating a very weak pressure gradient, so winds across the waters on Friday will feature highly variable direction with speeds of 5-10 kts. Seas of 2-3 ft Thursday will fall to around 2 ft on Friday thanks to the weaker winds, and a continuing 2ft/9-10 sec SE swell.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...HAWKINS SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DL

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