Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 140234 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1034 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure across the region through Saturday, will move offshore Sunday. A cold front will cross the coast Monday, opening the door for drier air and cooler temperatures more in line with early fall, from Tuesday through much of the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 915 PM Friday...Clouds to the north, clouds to the west, clouds to the east and even some cloudiness south of the ILM CWA. In the middle is the ILM CWA where skies are mostly clear with some clouds along the peripheral of the ILM CWA. Models want to eventually fill in the cloudiness across the FA overnight with basically low level stratus and stratus fractus at 1200 ft initially and even lower during the pre-dawn Sat hrs. Model soundings via temp and dewpoint traces indicate that stratus and not dense fog, will likely develop and overspread the FA overnight into daylight Sat keeping skies mostly overcast. Vsby should for the most part remain 1 mile or higher. Now if winds totally decouple across the majority of the FA before daybreak, then fog could become an issue if the FA remains under clear skies. Will basically go with the low stratus regime and indicate patchy fog possible. Tonights lows in the 60s across the entire ILM CWA, will be a welcome sight considering the past week daily lows were in the 70s, which is 15 to 20 degrees above normal. The upper ridging will continue to affect the FA at the 1st half of the weekend, with models there-after indicating the polar westerlies flexing south and eastward during late this weekend. This will result in a peak to the max and min temps Sun and Sun night respectively. Previous................................................. As of 242 PM Friday...Stubborn stratus clouds are slowly evolving into cumulus. The skies will remain mostly cloudy with possible thinning continuing around sunset. The latest time height cross sections from GFS and NAM both show only moisture in the boundary layer after midnight. This will allow for stratus and fog to develop again and become dense in areas after midnight. Skies on Saturday are expected to be slow to clear as was the case today. Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower to middle 60s overnight. Highs on Saturday will range from 80-82 but if clouds are slow to erode as today then forecast highs maybe 2 to 4 degrees to warm with forecast. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 242 PM Friday...A return of some very familiar unseasonable warmth for the short term. High pressure wedge in place during the near term washes out while an approaching cold front encourages warm advection locally. The last vestige of the wedge of high pressure Saturday night will make for some very light winds and likely some radiational fog. By Sunday the center of high pressure shifts well offshore and moisture advection gets underway along with the thermal advection. Winds will likely not decouple sufficiently for fog formation Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 242 PM Friday...Central caption this period remains the arrival of Fall-like air late Monday into Tuesday in wake of a cold frontal passage. The cooling will serve to align absolute humidity and air temperatures more in line with climatology for middle October, but not necessarily cooler than `normal`. This period is essentially dry, except for a brief and narrow window of PCPN opportunity Monday in vicinity of the cold front, when a transitory spike in column moisture makes passage. It should be noted that QPF values associated with the front will remain nil to scant, likely a tenth of an inch or less. As a result, it seems fortunate we have recently received the rainfall that we did, because a prolonged dry period appears in the cards next week. The NE-E flow much of the upcoming week will spread a few maritime clouds from time to time as depicted in time-height plots of RH, but bouts of sunshine minutes will rack-up also. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 00Z...Looking at VFR conditions this evening that should slowly deteriorate after midnight to MVFR/IFR status due to a low and developing stratus/stratus fractus cloud deck. Most if not all locations will observe sub 1k foot ceilings due to stratus along with some fog that should remain above major flight categories. Nevertheless, LIFR conditions remain possible due to low cloud ceilings, peaking in the 09z-13z time frame. By mid to late Sat morning...enough moisture in the low levels will be enough for stratocu clouds with flattened tops due to the very dry mid and upper levels. N to NNE winds 5 kt or less overnight, will become NE-ENE 5 to 10 kt by midday Sat and continue thru the afternoon. The coastal terms may see a few gusts up to 15 kt. Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR conditions are possible again Sunday morning from reduced ceilings and/or vsby. Isolated to scattered MVFR/IFR produced convection is possible on Monday ahead of a strong cold front. Cooler and even drier high pressure is expected Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 945 PM Saturday...Winds and seas will continue their slow diminishing and subsiding trends respectively this period. NE winds around 15 kt, should diminish to 10-15 kt by daybreak Sat and further drop to 10 kt or less during Sat. This in response to a piece or bubble of high pressure that broke away from it`s parent high. This bubble high will park across the Carolinas which will result in a further relaxation of the sfc pg. This will produce NE-ENE winds dropping to 10 kt or less and significant seas 2 to 3 ft, except some 4 footers off and east of Cape Fear and Romain respectively. Dominate periods will run at 8 seconds. Previous................................................... As of 242 PM Friday...Northeast flow around 15 knots continues this afternoon but weakening of the winds is expected to continue through Saturday. The seas at Frying Pan Shoals are settling a bit over the past 3 to 4 hours but 5 footers are still occurring 10 to 20 miles off the coast north of Cape Fear, therefore, the exercise caution will remain until 6 PM. The seas are expected to settle out to 2 to 3 feet by Saturday. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 242 PM Friday...Light NE flow turns onshore/easterly Saturday night as the high pressure wedging weakens considerably. By Sunday the high over land will be completely gone in favor of west Atlantic high pressure. Winds remain light and turn southerly, aided by the approach of a cold front from the northwest. Seas will average 2 to 3 ft for most of the region through the period. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 242 PM Friday...A difficult and rough marine period shaping up this time frame, as a cold frontal passage Monday afternoon to evening, opens the door to strong NE winds Monday night and Tuesday, before abating somewhat into mid-week. Small Craft Advisory conditions appear likely Monday night through at least Tuesday. Seas following the front will peak Tuesday at 4-8 feet, highest offshore and north of Cape Fear, lowest along inshore waters of Brunswick county. A brief window of showers or a TSTM is possible Monday and Monday evening, along and near the front. Winds ahead of the front do not appear all that strong, but behind the front, cannot rule out 30 kt gusts given the warm SSTs aiding in mixing of stronger 975 mb wind barbs to the sea surface.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...DCH/DRH SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...HDL

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