Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 300100 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 900 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY MORNING. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AND PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRUOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH TYPICAL LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...WHATS LEFT OF THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...A DECAYING FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BEST SEEN WITH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...AND ENOUGH MOISTURE BELOW 700MB VIA MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF I-95...ALL SPELL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING THAT WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CU AND POSSIBLY MODERATE CU TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA THIS EVENING. PLENTY OF NVA ALOFT VIA LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 18Z MODEL DATA OUTPUT TO AFFECT THE FA OVERNIGHT...AND THUS KEEP A LID ON ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION. ALL THIS TO OCCUR WITH THE MAIN LONGWAVE UPPER TROF AXIS REMAINING WELL WEST OF THE ILM CWA. WITH ALL THIS SAID...HAVE REMOVED POPS AND RE-ALIGNED THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD FIELD. THE MUCH DRIER AIR INLAND ALONG WITH WINDS POSSIBLY DECOUPLING FOR A FEW HRS DUE TO THE SFC BASED INVERSION AND THE SYNOPTIC SFC PG HAVING RELAXED. THIS WILL ALL AID IN MIN TEMPS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA. CLOSER TO THE COAST...LOOKING AT MINS AROUND OR IN THE LOWER 70S...STILL MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE THAN WHAT THE COAST HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINES TUE/WED IS A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...WITH A HIKE-UP IN RAIN CHANCES LATE TUE AND WED AS A SHORT-WAVE ALOFT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS AND FORCES A LEE SIDE TROUGH TOWARD THE COAST OF NE SC AND SE NC. AN ISOLATED SHOT AT CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A MID- LEVEL DRY LAYER WILL NOT ERODE UNTIL CLOSE TO 00Z...SQUASHING RAIN CHANCES MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY IN THE EARLY GOING...UNTIL COLUMN WETTING ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTED TEMPERATURES AT ILM WILL RESULT IN POTENTIALLY AROUND THE 5TH WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD BY THE CLOSE OF TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH FLATTENS AND RETROGRADES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH MAY END UP BEING OUR TRANSITIONAL PERIOD FROM A RATHER NORMAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO A LESS ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND. FLATTER FLOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS THOUGH A DRY AFTERNOON IS TOUGH TO FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE. THEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RAMP BACK UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION BY DAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS MAY SLOW RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE VCSH ON TUESDAY. EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS VFR PREVAILS WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DECREASING TO AOB 5 KTS AND FEW/SCT CIRRUS. WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF PATCHY LIGHT FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING LOW CIGS WHICH COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR...BUT OVERALL EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH- SOUTHWEST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR VCSH...THUS HAVE INTRODUCED INTO GOING FORECAST. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER OFF SHORE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS ON TAP TUE/WED AS AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH SHARPENS AND INTERACTS WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SW WINDS 10-20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET AND PERHAPS NEAR 5 FT OUTER PORTIONS. SEAS A COMPOSITE OF SW WAVES 1-3 FT EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS MAY IMPACT THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO 40 KT LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD AS WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOW LITTLE VARIATION. SEAS WILL TEND TO AVERAGE 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT FETCH THE OCCASIONAL 5 FT WAVE MAY AFFECT THE OUTERMOST SECTIONS OF NORTHERN ZONES NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SGL MARINE...

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