Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 181818 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 218 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM DAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING AN AUTUMN CHILL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DRY FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR...MAINTAINING FALL WEATHER MIDDLE THROUGH LATE WEEK. LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 115 PM SATURDAY...AFTN MAXES CONTINUE HIER THAN VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE. DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE APPALACHIANS AND LACK OF CLOUDINESS TO FURTHER AID THE HIER MAXES. AFTN HIGHS MAY COME WITHIN A CATEGORY OF RECORD MAXES BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY. LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CU/SC DEVELOPMENT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOST IF ANY OF THE LOW/MID CLOUD DECK EXISTS AFTER THE CFP AS A RATHER POTENT MID-LEVEL S/W TROF OR VORT LAGS BEHIND THE CFP. CONTINUE THE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN FCST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY TO BASICALLY OVERHEAD BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES TO AN END MIDDAY SUNDAY BUT THE VERY DRY AIRMASS AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL MAKE MONDAY MORNING ONE OF THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON. LOW TO MIDDLE 40S WILL BE COMMON AND EVEN UPPER 30S IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. MONDAY WILL BE A WARM UP DAY AS THE RETURN FLOW DOMINATES. EXPECT HIGHS SOME 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE SUNDAYS VALUES. NO POPS AND LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL CYCLONE WILL DICTATE CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THE CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THEN WOBBLE AROUND THE DELMARVA AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE FEATURE FINALLY GETS KICKED OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE CHALLENGED AND WHAT QPF...IF ANY THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE LIGHT. OVERALL I HAVE TRIMMED BACK SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES MIDWEEK TO MATCH ADJACENT OFFICES MORE THAN ANYTHING. A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AT THE SURFACE AFTER THE INITIAL FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE AIRMASS MODIFIES TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND 50S RESPECTIVELY. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID ISSUANCE PERIOD. A CFP IS SLATED TO OCCUR AFTER 22-23Z FOR KFLO/KLBT...AND 00-01Z AT KILM/KCRE/KMYR TERMINALS. IT WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR ONLY FEW/SCT CU/SC OR LOW AC JUST PRIOR AND IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE CFP. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT THE COASTAL TERMS MAY OBSERVE SW 10 KT DUE TO A PINNED SEA BREEZE. ALL TERMS WILL SEE A SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND 10 KT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KT POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS CAA SURGE COMES INTO PLAY. PLUMMETING DEWPOINTS AND STRONG SURFACE WINDS INDICATE FOG WILL NOT BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH NORTH WINDS 10 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DCH/BJR

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