Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 140532 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1232 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure to our north will bring near seasonable temperatures during the upcoming week, along with dry conditions. A strong cold front is expected to cross the coast next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 845 PM Monday...Water vapor imagery shows dry mid-level air in place over the Carolinas this evening in wave of a shortwave moving off the East coast. Surface high pressure centered over Ohio will transition eastward through Tuesday. This will leave enough of a pressure gradient in place to maintain a 5-10 mph NE wind overnight, and 10-15 mph on Tuesday. Going min temp forecast of a general 40-45 degree range is on track. No significant changes needed. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Monday...High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic Tue night will become elongated as it drifts east on Wed. Progressive flow aloft Wed will help push a dry cold front into the region. The surface high weakens and dissipates later Wed into Wed night before the front crosses the area late in the period. Precipitable water will remain under half an inch through the period, approaching a quarter inch at times, and forecast soundings show an abundance of low and mid level dry air. There does appear to be a fair amount of moisture above 25k ft, especially Wed afternoon and Wed night. A weak 5h shortwave, more like a ripple than a wave, moves in from the west Wed night and is associated with the cold front. What limited amount of PVA there is ahead of the wave could generate some cirrus, but anything more is unlikely. Low temperatures will end up near to slightly below climo. Radiational cooling might result in typical cold spots running a little colder Tue night, but boundary layer winds will likely be to strong to maximize cooling. Highs on Wednesday will end up several degrees below climo despite mostly sunny skies. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...Low amplitude flow aloft to keep surface features very progressive, especially early in the period. High pressure will move east across the region Thursday into Friday allowing for a gradual warming trend, and possibly a downright surge of warmth ahead of approaching cold front on Saturday. This front comes through Saturday night bringing rain chances though QPF prospects still appear minimal. Quite a cooldown is slated following this boundary, though guidance seemingly unsure about the magnitude of the cold i.e. whether or not we get into some bona-fide arctic air. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 06Z...Stratus is making its way south this morning but the coverage is somewhat disorganized and guidance appears to keep it so for the next several hours. IFR conditions should persist in Wilmington but other sites along the coast should see only scattered ceilings. Some higher level cloud cover may develop later this afternoon but should have little impact on the aviation community. Extended Outlook...VFR with a chance of early morning BR/MVFR vsbys Wed-Fri. VFR Sat becoming MVFR/SHRA/TS Sat evng.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 845 PM Monday...Surface high pressure centered over Ohio will move eastward through Tuesday, and this will allow a NNE trajectory to persist over the waters. The gradient is enough to keep speeds near 20 knots, and buoy 41038 even recorded a gust to 29 knots last hour. Within 20 nm, average seas should top out around 4-5 feet, with around 2 feet expected in the sheltered near shore waters between Little River Inlet and Cape Fear. Based on the magnitude of the surface pressure gradient forecast through Tuesday, and the latest area obs, will add a Small Craft Exercise Caution headline in the near term. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Monday...North to northeast flow Tue night will be on the high side of the 15 to 20 kt range into Wed. The gradient starts to weaken Wed afternoon with speeds dropping to 10 to 15 kt by midday and closer to 10 kt Wed night. Seas 3 to 4 ft may briefly touch 5 ft Tue night but decreasing wind speeds later Wed and Wed night will result in a downward trend in seas. As early as midday Wed, seas could be down to 2 to 4 ft, dropping to 2 to 3 ft by the evening hours. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...A pretty weak pressure gradient in place as high pressure weakens. The overall wind direction will remain northerly and seas capped at 2-3 ft. A new high then builds in Friday briefly strengthening winds but then the high quickly moves overhead both weakening the flow and leading to considerable veering in direction as return flow sets up. With the high then off the coast on Saturday the approach of a fairly robust cold front will tighten the gradient sufficiently to where headlines or even advisory may be needed. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CRM SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SHK

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