Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 210707 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 300 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN UNTIL FRIDAY OR PERHAPS SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STORMS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. MORE SEASONABLE AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 10:30 PM WEDNESDAY...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO NO-MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGHOUT. EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW/MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ICW LOCALS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP. THE RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE BUT NEVERTHELESS STALWART MID AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FOR DAYS NOW GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT SOME ENERGY TOPS THE NE OF THIS RIDGE AND DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN FACT NOW WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO GAIN AMPLITUDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD IT SEEMS THAT ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY WILL TEND TO BYPASS US BY TO THE NORTH. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS AND BOTH MAY FIRE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT NOW THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT ABATEMENT OF BOTH MAY CREEP IN ON SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR PART OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HINGE ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MAY COME THROUGH SATURDAY OR NOT TIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPS SATURDAY AS MOST MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER. THE SLOW GFS THOUGH IMPLIES THAT MANY AREAS MAY COOK AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TAKE MAV HIGHS FOR LBT FOR EXAMPLE THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY; 97, 96, 98. DON`T WANT TO SHOW MUCH OF A COOL DOWN IN CASE SOMETHING LIKE THAT COMES TO PASS WHICH GIVEN RECENT MODEL ERRORS CERTAINLY SEEMS POSSIBLE...AS THE SLOWER GFS COULD IMPLY THAT SOME LOCALES WILL BE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC COAST FINALLY SHARPENS ENOUGH TO DRIVE COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPAND EASTWARD WITH A NE TO SW ELONGATION FROM THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TO THE GOMEX. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL DOWN THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN A PRESSURE PATTERN MORE REMINISCENT OF THE COOL SEASON. LITTLE TO NO REAL RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPS SEASONABLE. IT ALSO BEARS MENTIONING AT THIS POINT THAT THE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SWELLS FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD BE AFFECTING AREA BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY OR SOON THEREAFTER. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT TO CREATE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS INCLUDING CALM WINDS ALONG WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...ANTICIPATE AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT WILL SEE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST WITH MVFR/IFR INLAND. KCRE...THE OUTLIER...MAY DROP TO 1/2SM IN FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING THU HRS. AFTER 1 TO 2 HRS AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER RIDGING BECOMING MORE DOMINANT...EXPECT IT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION AS IT GAINS IN STRENGTH. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH SCT MID CLOUDS AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST...WILL BACK WINDS TO THE SSW AOB12 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 15 KT. RIDGING ALOFT WILL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SKIES CLEARING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10:30 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE MARINE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS IN PLACE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. SEAS ARE A MIX OF S WAVES 2 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. STEERING WINDS COULD GUIDE STORMS TOWARD THE SE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND GETTING A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE DISEMBARKING IS A GOOD IDEA THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN COULD REDUCE VSBYS TO 1NM AT TIMES. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TOWARDS THE COAST FROM ITS NORMAL POSITION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MODELS EVEN PORTRAYING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE. EITHER WAY THIS WILL FAVOR VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF NO MORE THAN 2 TO 3 FT. THE SEABREEZE WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER. SATURDAY IS ONE OF THE MORE UNCERTAIN PERIODS OF BOTH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT WILL BE BACKDOORING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT ITS TIMING IS POORLY AGREED UPON BY MODELS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. FROPA TIMINGS CAN RANGE FROM SATURDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT. BEING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IT SHOULD LEAD TO A PRETTY ABRUPT WIND CHANGE FROM WEST TO EAST VIA CLOCKWISE VEERING. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE FROPA AND WAVES WILL NOT GROW IN SIZE EVEN THOUGH THEY MAY STEEPEN UP. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SAGS OFF TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM POINTS NORTH AND EAST AS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN IN COOLER WEATHER SEASONS. SEAS WILL BUILD AND BECOME RATHER CHOPPY AND AN ADVISORY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT LEAST ACCORDING TO WNA GUIDANCE. ANY EFFECTS FROM THE WOULD-BE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TO BE SLATED FOR THE MID WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ023-032-033-039-053>056. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...REK/MJC SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DCH/SGL

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