Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 151413 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1013 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTROL AREA WEATHER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 10:15 AM TUESDAY...BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS LESS OF A THREAT THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. HAVE REMOVED SEVERE WORDING FROM THE ZONES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. LIMITED INSTABILITY MOST PLACES WILL BE THE MAJOR ISSUE AFFECTING SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES TODAY. GREATEST INSTABILITY AND THUS BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG CONVECTION LOOK TO BE FROM THE CAPE FEAR COASTAL REGION AND NORTHWARDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A 2 TO 6 PM SWEET SPOT. DISCUSSION FROM 3:30 AM FOLLOWS: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE PAIR OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT APPEARS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS INDIANA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA LATER TODAY. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE IN A BRIEF LULL AT THE MOMENT. THE 300MB JET INCREASES TO WELL OVER 100 KNOTS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVING PERFECTLY ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. I HAVE BACKED OFF POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...THEN RAMPING UP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. I HAVE ALSO ADDED STRONG WIND WORDING TO THE WEATHER TYPE AS THE SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES. THE FORECAST EMPHASIS THEN SHIFTS TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A DEEP PLUNGE OF BELOW ZERO 850MB AIR TO OUR WEST BUT THESE TEMPERATURES MODIFY AND OR MOVE JUST TO OUR NORTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE IS VERY COLD EVEN SHOWING A 32 VIA THE MET FOR LUMBERTON AND 33 FROM THE MAV. MIDDLE 30S ARE ADVERTISED ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. AS USUALLY IS THE CASE...THESE APPEAR TOO COLD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN WELL MIXED. THE LOWEST I HAVE IS 34 IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AREAS AND I FEEL THIS MAY BE ON THE COLD SIDE. I DID DROP LOWS FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL COUNTIES TO 38/39. LASTLY A COUPLE OF NOTES...STORM TOTAL QPF LOOKS RATHER CONSISTENT AT JUST OVER AN INCH WITH THE OBVIOUS DISCLAIMER OF LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION. I DECIDED AGAINST A WIND ADVISORY AS WE JUST DONT COME CLOSE TO CRITERIA AND PUBLIC IMPACT...AT LEAST BY NOW WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE LOWER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAX CAA WILL BE RUNNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS 850 TEMPS MAKE IT DOWN CLOSE TO 4C AS H5 HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT BELOW 570 DEM IN A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW A VERY DRY COLUMN WITH PCP WATER VALUES DOWN CLOSE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP A GOOD 30 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS DAY WITH READINGS BELOW 30 DEGREES BY TUES AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT A VERY COOL BUT SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. AFTER SUCH A COOL START TO THE MORNING WITH TEMPS BELOW 40 DEGREES...EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO 60 DEGREES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HEADING INTO WED NIGHT INTO THURS THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DOWN INTO THE 30S. IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WARMER GROUND TEMPS PLUS WINDS HOLDING UP A BIT OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP FROST OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANOTHER DRY DAY ON THURS WITH PCP WATER VALUES REMAINING BELOW A HALF INCH. OVERALL EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BUT AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NE-E THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS CLOSE TO THE COAST...ESPECIALLY SC COAST WITH ON SHORE FLOW. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE 60S BY THURS AFTN. BY THURS NIGHT WEDGE PATTERN SETS UP WITH SHALLOW COOL AIR IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING AROUND TO THE S-SW SETTING THE STAGE FOR LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH IN INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH FRI MORNING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON FRIDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED IN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARMER AND MOISTER SW WINDS ALOFT RISE OVER THE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE LATEST GFS KEEPS MAIN PCP WITH THIS LOW/TROUGH TO THE EAST AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRI. OVERALL EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WITH A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PCP MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH FRI. THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE WEAKENING DRY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS BUT OVERALL EXPECT JUST A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY RIDE THROUGH LATE MONDAY PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHC OF PCP AIR MASS WILL MODIFY BUT CLOUDS AND PCP ON FRI WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH TEMPS REACHING BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL BY SATURDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS CLOSER TO 50 WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 70 MOST DAYS EXCEPT WARMER ON SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 12Z...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE...LOW LEVEL JET...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER SIXTIES...AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE. THE QUESTION MARK IS HOW MUCH SOLAR INSOLATION WE WILL GET. THE NAM HAS THE CAPE GOING TO NEAR 1800 J/KG. THINK IF WE GET AT LEAST A THOUSAND CAPE WILL WILL SEE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. FIRST VORT WILL AFFECT ILM AND LBT FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO...THEN WE ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE IN A LULL...BASED ON THE BRIEF LACK OF MOISTURE ON THE TIME HEIGHT. THE MAIN BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FROM 18-22Z. GUSTS OVER 35 KTS ARE LIKELY WITH ANY STRONG CONVECTION. THINGS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOME POSSIBLE STRATIFORM CONVECTION FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10:15 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE MID- MORNING UPDATE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES AS BEFORE. DISCUSSION FROM 3:30 AM FOLLOWS: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT LEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND EVENING BUT THE FETCH HAS PRODUCED THE HIGHER SEAS AS ANTICIPATED. THE CURRENT 4-6 FEET SHOULD REACH A MAXIMUM OF 4-8 FEET AROUND MID AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS...THE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DROP BUT WINDS WILL ENTER THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR A GALE WARNING HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED AS THE DEEP PLUNGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES TO THE WEST AND NORTH. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND EXITING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE STRONG N-NE WINDS THROUGH WED UP AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS TO START. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THURS AND LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH REMAIN OFF SHORE THE WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY REMAINING NE 15 TO 20 KTS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF WED SHOULD REMAIN BORDERLINE THROUGH THURS. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FRI AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN NE TO N STARTING OUT CLOSER TO 15 TO 20 KTS BUT DIMINISHING AS GRADIENT WEAKENS THROUGH FRI. SEAS CLOSER TO 6 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS WILL DROP SLOWLY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF LOW/TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA ON FRI INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DROP FURTHER ON SATURDAY AS LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BUT SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AS REINFORCING HIGH BUILDS DOWN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054- 056. NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106- 108-110. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...REK/SHK SHORT TERM...RAN LONG TERM...RJD AVIATION...DL MARINE...REK/RJD/SHK/RAN

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