Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 231457 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1045 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Chilled air this morning will warm up close to or around 70 degrees this afternoon. Clear nights and Sunny skies will be on tap through the mid to late week period. A brief warm-up on Monday will be followed by a dry cold frontal passage late Monday afternoon and evening. a reinforcing shot of cool air will infiltrate the area complements of Canadian high pressure ridging southward from it`s center north of the Great Lakes. Another warmup will occur towards the end of this work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1045 AM Sunday...With 12Z area RAOBS showing PW values of about a quarter of an inch its no surprise that it`s a `temperature only` forecast today. Latest MOS supports our forecast and so no changes are planned at this time. Previous: As of 630 AM Sunday...Upper longwave pattern in place now. This means Autumn season is fully upon the ILM CWA. At the sfc, high pressure will remain parked across the Gulf Coast States this period. The sfc ridge axis will extend from it`s center toward the northeast and across portions of the ILM CWA today. For tonight, it`s axis is shunted southward. This positioning today, will result in nw-w winds at 5 to 10 mph, it`s shunted position and a slightly tightened sfc pg tonight will keep sw to w winds active. Another issue will be the low level jet just off the surface. Models indicate 25 to 30 kt west winds, with some of that mixing down to the sfc. Do not expect any decoupling of the winds tonight. This may also keep min temps up even hier than what the consensus of the avbl mos guidance is indicating. In fact, will have temps drop to near the fcst lows just after midnight, and then will indicate steady or slowly rising temps there-after. This also is indicative of the start of WAA, ie. 850mb temps increasing this period along with 1000-850mb thicknesses. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday...WAA ahead of the approaching cold front will be ongoing at the start of this period. Could see occasional thin cirrus clouds traversing the ILM CWA thruout this period via model rh time height displays across the FA. With WAA, consensus amongst the models gives mid to upper 70s for highs on Mon. The cold front, a dry one, with very little clouds associated with it by the time it reaches and drops south across the ILM CWA. Time line for thIS cfp will run from late Mon afternoon thru early evening. This cfp will not be as dramatic as it`s predecessor a couple days ago, but will re-enforce the cool air across the FA for the remainder of this period. This due to sfc high centered north of the Great Lakes, ridging southward across the ILM CWA and continuing across Georgia. Thus, an influx of COOL Canadian air will occur for Tue thru Wed. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 AM Sunday...Quintessential autumn weather Wednesday will transition to a brief but weak warm sector regime late Thursday and Friday as an approaching short-wave and attendant surface low begin to erode locally an entrenched high pressure wedge. This should generate a bit of cloud cover late week and perhaps -RA/-SHRA respectively prior to frontal passage sometime Friday. No appreciable QPF is expected to be laid down since return flow and low level wind trajectories remain unfavorable for notable moisture advection. This will however bring slight cooling into next weekend but not as cool as we are seeing this weekend in terms of minimum readings. As a result we expect the river levels to continue a decline through the extended period. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 12Z...VFR likely through the TAF valid period. Nearly ideal flight conditions today with clear skies and unlimited visibility. W-NW winds 5 knots or less early this morning will become NW 10-15 kt aft 14Z. In the afternoon winds will back to the SSW-SW at the coastal terminals. Aft 00Z winds will initially become LGT and VRBL, but will resume from a SW direction around 5 kt for the overnight hours. Extended Outlook...VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1045 AM Sunday...No changes to the forecast at all. Previous discussion follows: As of 630 AM Sunday...Surface high will ridge across the waters from it`s center over the Gulf coast states. This will result in a loosened sfc pg with a diminishing nw windS later today. For tonight, a low level westerly jet at 25 to 30 kt just off the deck, will occasionally mix down to the ocean sfc. Have indicated w to sw winds increasing slowly thru tonight. Significant seas will mainly be driven by locally produced wind driven waves at 3 to 5 second periods. There will be an underlying easterly 1 foot ground swell at 9 second periods. Overall, seas 2 to 5 ft today and holding in the 2 to 4 ft range tonight. Due to the nw to w wind directions, a limited fetch will exist. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday...For this period, a slightly tightened sfc pg to occur Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. This will yield sw to w winds at 10 to 20 kt. A dry cold frontal passage expected, with it dropping south across the local waters by early Monday evening. After fropa, winds will become ne at 10 to 20 mph with a few hier gusts. This due to the combined efforts of a tightened gradient and CAA. Sfc ridging from the highs center north of the Great Lakes will extend across the Carolinas thru the remainder of this period along with the ne winds that will partially diminish Tue night into Wed. Significant seas will primarily be ruled by locally produced wind driven waves at 4 to 6 second periods. Significant seas to range between 2 to 5 ft, with a few 6 footers possible early tue off Cape Fear and Romain respectively. SCEC conditions may be met late Mon night thru Tue. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 AM Sunday...Moderately bumpy seas should be anticipated Wednesday since PMSL contours will remain somewhat packed closely together over the 0-20 NM waters. An exercise caution statement cannot be ruled out entirely even though various wave solutions cap seas at around 4 feet accompanied by fresh NE breezes. Vast improvement Thursday afternoon and Friday as a flat pressure pattern sprawls over the Carolina waters. NO TSTMS or constraints to visibilities are expected this period. A few light showers may touch Cape Fear Friday as a front transfers off the coast. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...MJC AVAITION...MRR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.