Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 212337 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 737 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT MOVING THE COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO REGION FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK HIGHER HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 PM THURSDAY..SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 193 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 3 PM FOLLOWS BELOW: DRY AIR WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS ALREADY DROPPING WEST OF I95 FROM NEAR 70 DOWN CLOSER TO 60 BY MID AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SLOWER TO DROP IN CONTINUED SUNSHINE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THEN THE MAIN H5 TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN FROM GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH AS IT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL VEER AROUND QUITE ABRUPTLY AS THIS FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A COUPLE OF THE MESO MODELS WERE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHWRS AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF FORECAST AFTER THIS INITIAL LINE PASSES WITH DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER AIR MOVING IN. 850 TEMPS WILL DROP FROM NEAR 16 C LATE THIS AFTERNOON DOWN TO 9C BY MORNING. OVERALL EXPECT A COMPLETE CHANGE IN AIR MASS WITH WARMER MORE HUMID AIR MASS TRANSITIONING TO A MORE SEASONABLE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MASS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE SLOWER TO DROP INITIALLY BUT ONCE FRONT DROPS SOUTH...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL FALL MORE RAPIDLY WITH TEMPS DOWN NEAR 60 BY DAYBREAK. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...AS THE FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST REGION...COOLER DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN. GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO A RANGE OF 0.5 TO 1 INCHES. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL STAY TO THE NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND AROUND 80 ON SATURDAY. LOWS EACH NIGHT SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER 50S ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE AREA WILL SEE A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW...A RETURN TO HIGHER HUMIDITIES...AND A WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES. ALOFT A RIDGE STUBBORNLY HOLDS ON THROUGH ALMOST THURSDAY SO THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO AROUND 90 BY TUESDAY AND REMAIN AT THOSE LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED EARLY THIS EVENING S OF KMYR TO JUST S-SW OF KFLO. LINGERING MVFR LEVEL LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING NEAR KILM WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A MVFR CIG THROUGH 03Z. OTHERWISE VFR LEVEL LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND AT KFLO. DESPITE GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND MOIST SOILS AT KLBT AND KILM NO FOG IS EXPECTED AS N WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE LOW LEVELS WELL MIXED. AFTER 12Z EXPECT VFR/CLEAR SKIES BELOW 12K AS N-NE WINDS PREVAIL. IN THE AFTERNOON SCT CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT NE-E. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 PM THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 193 HAS BEEN CANCELLED. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW: SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT AHEAD OF A COASTAL TROUGH...WILL SHIFT TO THE W- NW THROUGH THIS EVENING AS IT SHIFTS OFF SHORE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A MORE ABRUPT SHIFT OF WINDS TO THE N LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A NORTHERLY SURGE WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT LATE TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS AND SEAS REACHING NEAR SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THRESHOLDS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT MAY SEE SOME 5 FOOTERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY THE OF END FRIDAY AND REMAIN AT THESE SPEEDS. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE DAY FROM THE NORTH AND WILL VEER TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY. SEA HEIGHTS WILL START OUT AT 2 TO 4 FEET EARLY FRIDAY AND WILL SETTLE OUT AT 2 TO 3 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RULE THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AT 10 KNOTS BY TUESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2 TO 3 FEET FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...DRH LONG TERM...DRH AVIATION...MRR

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