Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 251738 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 138 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY BELOW FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A SLOW WARMUP WILL FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST SAT VIS IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES MANY HOLES/CRACKS IN THE STRATOCU AND ALTOCU OVERCAST. AS A RESULT...WILL BECOME MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR THIS AFTERNOONS SKIES. WITH THE ADDITIONAL INSOLATION...HAVE TWEAKED THIS AFTN MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES UPWARDS WITH 70S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA. AS FOR POPS...HAVE LOWERED THEM CONSIDERABLY BY ATLEAST 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES. THIS BASED ON CURRENT MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS AND THE LACK OF ORGANIZED OVERRUNNING PCPN. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE ONSHORE AND INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE COASTAL TROF/FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A BROAD SOUTHWEST WILL PREVAIL AT THE MID LEVELS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND WARM AS THE DEEP ATLANTIC FLOW IN PLACE GETS SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND THE FRONT RESIDES WELL TO THE WEST. POPS INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT AND HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE POWERFUL TROUGH. THE POPS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY CANT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AS A POWERFUL VORT SWINGS ACROSS. ITS WORTH TAKING A LOOK AT THERMAL PROFILES FOR THIS TIME AND IT APPEARS IT WILL BE JUST A LITTLE TOO WARM AT THE SURFACE FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION AND THE WINDOW IS VERY NARROW ANYWAY. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED WITH A VERY WARM THURSDAY BACKING OFF CONSIDERABLY FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A DEEP TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S RATHER QUICKLY LEAVING IN ITS WAKE A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING DURING THIS TIME...THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH WILL DICTATE TEMPERATURES MOST NOTABLY FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THE MEX HAS COME IN A LITTLE WARMER WITH 31 IN WILMINGTON AND 27 IN LUMBERTON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW WITH THIS SCENARIO AND A FREEZE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY. BEYOND THIS A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WHICH WARMS THINGS UP SOMEWHAT WITH A DRY BACKDOOR FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY PUT A HALT ON THE WARMUP. DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 18Z...A STRONG NE-E FLOW HAS SHOVED MVFR CIGS WEST OF KFLO/KLBT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AT 18Z. STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS FOR THE MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AT KFLO/KLBT... WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KFLO. COASTAL TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 00Z WITH A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY AFTER 21Z. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AT KFLO/KLBT. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL AFFECT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING...LOWERING TO IFR LATE THIS EVENING AT KFLO/KLBT AND OVERNIGHT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE WITH SHOWERS MAINLY COASTAL TERMINALS. INLAND TERMINALS BECOMING VFR DURING THE MORNING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR THURS. FRI RAIN/IFR. SAT MVFR/SHOWERS EARLY BECOMING VFR. VFR SUN/MON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MON. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...LATEST BUOY READINGS INDICATE THE COASTAL FRONT/TROF RESIDES JUST OFFSHORE AND PARALLEL TO THE ILM CWA COASTLINE. MODELS CONTINUE WITH MOVING THIS COASTAL FRONT/TROF ONSHORE THIS EVENING...AND INLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOOK FOR A VEERING WIND DIRECTION FROM EASTERLY TO SE-SSE AFTER ITS PASSAGE...WITH SPEEDS 10 TO AROUND 15 KT. HAVE CUT DOWN THE POPS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS...AND ALSO THE FACT THAT WE ARE BASICALLY DEALING WITH WEAK DYNAMICS THAT IS ABLE TO PRODUCE PCPN. SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE TODAY...BUILDING TO 3 TOO 5 FT TONIGHT INTO THU. DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 6 SECONDS. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WIND FIELDS SEEM UNUSUALLY WEAK FOR A DYNAMIC SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS DURING THE PERIOD. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS...MOSTLY LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST. I SUPPOSE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS MORE GRADUAL LIMITING MODELS DEPICTION OF THE WINDS AND THE FACT THE CORE OF COLD AIR IS TO THE WEST. WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO A 15-20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 FEET THURSDAY POSSIBLY ECLIPSING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BRIEFLY BEFORE THE OFFSHORE FLOW TRIMS BACK HEIGHTS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST SATURDAY WITH 15-20 KNOTS. VALUES BACK OFF SUNDAY TO TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DCH/MRR

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