Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 040801 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 301 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... RAINY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY AND MOVE QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...MORE RAIN TODAY AND THIS RAIN WILL BE FALLING ON WET GROUND. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO FALL HEAVILY...IT WILL BE STEADY. A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE COAST AND THEN MOVE NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL KEEP THE DEEP CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE FROM MOVING OFFSHORE. FINALLY...A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRI MORNING...KICKING THE WHOLE SYSTEM SEAWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THU AND THU NIGHT WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS COULD AGAIN FALL TODAY. THIS IS A VERY GOOD SOAKING GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN THE SOILS ARE NOT ABLE TO SOAK UP AS MUCH WATER GIVEN THE LACK OF GROWING VEGETATION AND SHORTER DAYS. HOWEVER...THE DURATION OF THE RAIN EVENT DOES HELP TO ALLEVIATE FLOOD CONCERNS SOMEWHAT...WITH THE RAIN FALLING OVER 30 TO 36 HOURS. ALSO...THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE MORE OF A STEADY MODERATE RAIN RATHER THAN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. FOR THESE REASONS...A FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER... THERE WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER IN SOME LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. SO POPS WILL AGAIN BE 100 PERCENT BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E LATE TONIGHT AS COLUMN FINALLY DRIES OUT DRAMATICALLY. THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR AREA...MAY STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN DROPS FALLING NEAR DAYBREAK FRI...BUT EVEN HERE...THEY WILL END QUICKLY. THE LAST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE COAST LATE TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO WRAP NOT ONLY DRIER AIR TO THE COAST...BUT CHILLY AIR AS IT MOVES N OF OUR LATITUDE AND INTENSIFIES. THE COLUMN IS EXPECTED TO DRY BEFORE ANY MIX WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION CAN OCCUR. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY BARRELING THROUGH HERE EARLY FRI MORNING...IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE A BRIEF AND ISOLATED FLURRY COULD OCCUR AS THE LAST OF THE QUICKLY DWINDLING MOISTURE IS WRUNG OUT. GIVEN THE VERY LOW PROBABILITY...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN GRIDS. TEMPS TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL NOT BUDGE MUCH...REMAINING WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF WHERE THEY STARTED THROUGH THE DAY...LOWER AND MID 60S. IT WILL TURN BRISK OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY...ESPECIALLY LATE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 BY SUNRISE FRI. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING EARLY FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW BRIEFLY. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S BOTH DAYS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S SATURDAY MORNING. THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A FAST MOVING TROUGH DIVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL SPARK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH THE SURFACE LOW AS THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA. THE ECMWF HAS A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SCENARIO AND HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMIC LIFT SHOULD DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW MOSTLY RAIN. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S SATURDAY AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING TO ABOUT 30...IT APPEARS THERE WILL JUST BE TOO MUCH COOLING NECESSARY FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. NOT THAT THERE WON`T BE DIABATIC COOLING OF THE PROFILE WITH THE RAIN FALLING AND DYNAMIC COOLING AS WELL WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS...ITS CLEARLY NOTED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND IN THE 850MB PLAN VIEW OF THE GFS WITH THE COLD POCKETS DEVELOPING. AS STATED BEFORE THE ANTECEDENT THERMAL PROFILES AND THE RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINFALL RATES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME TO PRODUCE SNOW. SO THAT BEING SAID...THE CHANCES OF FROZEN PRECIP HAVE JOGGED A LITTLE LOWER BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. ONE POSITIVE IS THAT A LIGHTER QPF EVENT MAY PRECLUDE FLOODING CONCERNS COMING OFF THE CURRENT EVENT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES WILL GET KICKED OUT QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST LATER SUNDAY. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO A QUICK END. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR DEEP EAST COAST TROUGHING TO DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO ABOUT MINUS TWELVE C WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS THE COLDEST AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST AND MODIFIES SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS IS PROBABLY...ALONG WITH THE CLIMATOLOGY FACTOR THE REASON MEX GUIDANCE ISN`T TOO COLD RELATIVELY SPEAKING AT THIS POINT. OVERALL FEW CHANGES WITH A COLD FORECAST AND THE LINGERING POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLAKES FROM TIME TO TIME. TIMING IS DIFFICULT ON THE BEST CHANCE BUT IT WOULD APPEAR A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY FAVOR THE PM HOURS. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 06Z...A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS MODELS HAVE FRONT STALLING OUT AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...KEEPING THE AREA SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO SETTLE BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...GIVEN SEAS ARE STILL 7.5 FT AT 41013 BUOY... WILL HANG ONTO MARGINAL SC.Y FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH 6 AM THIS MORNING. THE SEA STATE WILL TURN MUCH MORE TURBULENT LATE TONIGHT AND FRI AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES UP THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. WE EXPECT STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE FRI MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BEGIN THE DAY FROM THE SSW OR SW...BUT THEN AS THE FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS...THE DIRECTION WILL VEER TO W AND NW LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NNW TO N. WIND SPEEDS TODAY AND THIS EVE WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT... INCREASING SHARPLY OVERNIGHT...REACHING 20 TO 30 KT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRI. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3 TO 5 FT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME 6 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTERMOST WATERS. SEAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE WILL SUBSIDE TO MAINLY 3 TO 4 FT. EXPECT SEAS WILL ABRUPTLY BUILD OVERNIGHT...REACHING 6 TO 9 FT BY DAWN FRI. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...BRIEF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL PRODUCE VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS INITIALLY...ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KNOTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE GRADIENT RELAXES QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TO 15- 20 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY PRODUCING A NORTHEAST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS. THE SPEEDS MAY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. RUGGED SEAS WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY AND CONTINUE INTO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. EXPECT A MORE MODEST RANGE OF 2-4 FEET SATURDAY. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY AS VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SPEEDS 20-25 KNOTS AND MAYBE A LITTLE HIGHER LATE VIA STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. A BRIEF RESPITE MONDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT WHICH WILL BRING RUGGED CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH SEAS SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE VIA THE FLOW DROPPING A BIT MONDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...RJD/MAC

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