Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 141941 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 341 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTROL AREA WEATHER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA AS EXPECTED...THANKS TO MOIST ADVECTION ON S/SE WINDS AROUND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES...SINCE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS LIMITED BY A DECENT INVERSION ABOVE 800MB...AND PERSISTENT VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS INVERSION IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...AS MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES DECREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...MID-LEVELS WILL MOISTEN TONIGHT...AND THUS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN PRIMARILY CONVECTIVE...ALBEIT OF SHALLOW NATURE. THUS WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A PERIOD OF REDUCED COVERAGE/ACTIVITY AFTER DARK BEFORE PRECIP RAMPS BACK UP AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HAVE SHOWN THIS IN POP GRIDS...THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE WATERS WHERE ACTIVITY MAY BLOSSOM OVER THE GULF STREAM AND ADVECT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS (POSSIBLY ONSHORE AS WELL)...BUT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. HAVE SHOWN A NON-TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE...WITH MINS BEING REACHED A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THEN RISING TOWARDS DAWN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPR 60S...SUPPORTING VERY LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AT H8 ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50 TO 55 KT RANGE WITH 0-3 KM SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300 DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL YIELD CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG BUT THERE STILL IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S WHICH WOULD YIELD CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND ENHANCE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. SHOWERS AND STORMS END RAPIDLY BY ABOUT 03Z WEDNESDAY WITH FROPA FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER TUESDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES NW BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE LATER MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THE TREND CONTINUES. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH CAA CONTINUING ON N TO NE FLOW WHICH SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AT THIS TIME...CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NE...SHOULD PRECLUDE A FREEZE BUT SOME FROST IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND MAY PERSIST INTO FRI...ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURES WILL BE LOWERING WITH TIME...AN INDICATION THAT THE WEDGE WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME. LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES THE ORIENTATION OF THE WEDGE AND ITS EASTWARD EXTENSION DOES NOT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. THE DEVELOPING AND PRONOUNCED TROUGH INITIALLY OFFSHORE DOES MIGRATE CLOSER TO THE COAST BY THE WEEKEND AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH STRUGGLES TO GAIN PROXIMITY AS THE UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS WELL AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND IS LIFTING NE AND FURTHER AWAY. THE CLOSER THE TROUGH IS TO THE COAST...THE GREATER THE ISENTROPIC LIFT POTENTIAL AND THE HIGHER THE RISK FOR RAINFALL. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY DIVERSE SOLUTIONS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EURO IS POINTING TO A WET FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GFS KEEPS PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIME...BUT DOES BRING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SLUG OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND ON MON WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED NEAR IF NOT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE EURO ON THE OTHER HAND DOES NOT BRING THIS WAVE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MON NIGHT. THUS...THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST IS VERY MUCH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND WILL BENEFIT FROM MODEL CONSISTENCY IF NOT A MORE UNIFIED SOLUTION WITH LATER RENDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL AND WELL BELOW NORMAL ON THU...WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH MON. HIGHS THU ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 60S. WE WILL ADD ABOUT 5 DEGREES TO THAT ON FRI WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND MON... LOWER TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY LATE WEEK...AROUND 40 THU NIGHT...NO FREEZE IS EXPECTED. MINIMUMS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FRI NIGHT AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 18Z...A STABLE LAYER AROUND 6500 FT HAS KEPT THE ATMOSPHERE A BIT CAPPED...BUT THAT STABLE LAYER SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITH THE COMMENCEMENT OF PRECIP...POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS INLAND. WINDS WILL STAY ABOVE 7-8 KTS OVERNIGHT...IN FACT THEY WILL INCREASE TOWARD MORNING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TUESDAY...CONVECTION WILL BE IN AND OUT WITH DECENT COVERAGE. MODELS INDICATE WE WILL GET ENOUGH SOLAR INSOLATION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS AFTER MIDDAY...STARTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CAPE COULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG WITH 55 KTS AT 2500 FEET. THE MARINE LAYER MAY SPARE THE COAST FROM STRONG STORMS IF THEY WAIT TO ARRIVE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR TUESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL DRIVE THE CURRENT 10 KT S/SE WINDS UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING 15-20 KTS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT VEERING TO THE SOUTH. THESE STRONGER WINDS AND CONTINUED LONG DURATION FETCH AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORCE WAVE HEIGHTS TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT. EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS TO GROW TO 4-6 FT OVERNIGHT...AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO BEGIN AT 8PM TONIGHT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH S TO SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TUESDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT TO N TO NE AFTER THE FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT. N TO NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THEY GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS TUESDAY...MAY RELAX A LITTLE AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN BUILD AS HIGH AS 9 FT TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT RESIDUAL 6 FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE AT 20 NM AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY. FOR NOW SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 2 AM THURSDAY BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER IN TIME IN LATER FORECASTS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...ASSOCIATED WITH A COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW THRESHOLDS THU NIGHT OR FRI. SEAS OF 6 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL BE THE LAST TO DROP BELOW THRESHOLD. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH MAY COMPLICATE THE WIND FORECAST FRI THROUGH SAT. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP NE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...HIGHEST THU AND THU NIGHT...UP TO 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...UP TO 5 TO 7 FT.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...31 NEAR TERM...JDW/BJR SHORT TERM...31 LONG TERM...RJD AVIATION...43

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