Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 202300 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 700 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF SOUTH CAROLINA WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT WILL BRING GUSTY WIND AND COASTAL RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST ON MONDAY...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 7 PM SATURDAY...OCEAN RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS CONTINUES TO EDGE CLOSER TO THE COASTAL ZONES THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW POSITIONED AROUND 175 MILES SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA WAS RESULTING IN A LANDWARD MOVING BAND OF PRECIPITATION. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE EXCEPT TO LOWER POP VALUES IN THE EARLY GOING TONIGHT. IT IS SOMEWHAT STARTLING THAN MANY LAND STATIONS ARE NOT REPORTING A CLOUD CEILING...WHICH IS DUE TO THE DECEPTIVELY HIGH OVERCAST STREWN ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC AT THE MOMENT WITH SCATTERED LOWER CUMULUS. INEVITABLE AND EVENTUAL...COASTAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY AND ON ITS WAY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MINIMUMS LOOK GOOD AND NO CHANGES TO THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO THE UPPER 60 COASTAL INTERIOR AND 70-74 IMMEDIATE COAST...ICW...AND DUNES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BE SHEARING OUT AND MOVING OUT QUICKLY AS WILL THE SURFACE LOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. I HAVE MAINTAINED RESIDUAL MINIMAL POPS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY TO ADDRESS. LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A RAPID CLEARING WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S WITH HIGHER VALUES INLAND WHERE THERE WILL BE A LONGER PERIOD OF INSOLATION. THE FORECAST THEN SHIFTS TO THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE MONDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE REMAINS UNIMPRESSED WITH CONVECTION REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE COOLER AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY...AND GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING 55 IN THE MAV AND MET IN LBT FOR TUESDAY MORNING. THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THESE MINIMAL VALUES BUT WE COULD SEE A LOT OF UPPER 50S INLAND AT THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RIGHT ON CUE THE AREA SEEMS TO BE IN FOR SOME FALL-LIKE WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THIS IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT WAS PROGGED YESTERDAY, BETTER SUPPRESSING FRONTAL MOISTURE OFF TO OUR SOUTH FOR WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY IN A WEAKENING COOL ADVECTION REGIME. SIMILARLY A COOL TUESDAY NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH MOST PLACES GETTING DOWN INTO THE 50S. THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS ITS GROUND AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER AS THE ANTICYCLONE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WEAKENS THERE WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY ONSHORE FLOW OF MOISTURE. FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE ASIDE, THERE WON`T BE MUCH FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT, AND MAYBE HARD-PRESSED TO MAKE MUCH INLAND PROGRESS. THIS MAY CHANGE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE CONVERGENT AND SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPS ATOP THE PERSISTENT WEDGE. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 23Z...THE NAM IS STARTING TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...NAMELY NOT PUSHING AS MUCH MOISTURE WELL INLAND. LOOK FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ONLY MINOR AVIATION IMPACTS WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT MVFR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM LOW CLOUD DECK AND REDUCED VSBY FROM PCPN. GUSTY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION AND CEILING HEIGHTS. WILL GO WITH A BLENDED MODEL INTERPRETATION WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT DUE TO STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. FLO AND LBT WILL LIKELY STAY OUT OF MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP. SUNDAY...SLOW IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST... WITH INLAND TERMINALS MUCH QUICKER. THE LOW TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BRINGING A DRYING NORTHWEST WIND ON ITS BEHIND. ALL LOCATIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING...ILM LIKELY BEING THE LAST TO IMPROVE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND DECREASE SUN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR SUN THROUGH WED WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 7 PM SATURDAY...ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR SEA RECOVERY TIME. SPEEDS IN THE 15-25 KT WITH WINDS NE BACKING TO N LATE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WITH DOMINANT PERIODS IN THE 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIOD RANGE TO DOMINATE THE SIG SEAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. THE OCEAN IS HAZARDOUS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY DAYS END AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE IN A 10-15 KNOT RANGE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE THE WIND SHIFT AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO BE IN PLACE BY 0000 UTC TUESDAY THEN VEERING TO NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AM. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM NEAR TEN KNOTS LATE MONDAY TO 15-20 KNOTS TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL 3-5 FOOT SEAS EARLY SUNDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY WHEN THEY WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FIRMLY THROUGH THE PERIOD IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF LATER INTO THE COOL SEASON. THE GRADIENT ITSELF WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO YIELD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS, BUT SEAS WILL ALSO BE ADVISORY-WORTHY AREA WIDE (AMZ254 MAY HAVE A BIT OF TROUBLE DUE TO WAVE SHADOW OFF CAPE FEAR). NOT ONLY WILL THE ADVISORY BE IN EFFECT FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD BUT ALSO LIKELY BEYOND AS THE WEDGE SHOWS LITTLE SIGN OF WEAKENING OR MOVING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...COLBY SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...BACON AVIATION...DL/HAWKINS

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