Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 201916 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 316 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WARM H5 TEMPS OF -5 TO -6 ARE SQUELCHING THE PROPENSITY FOR TOWERS TO ASCEND VERY MUCH ABOVE 45000 FEET...BUT A SNAKE PIT OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES FROM OUTFLOWS...A SEA BREEZE LINE AND A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRIEFLY PULSE CELLS CLOSER TO SEVERE LIMITS IN ANY STRONG BOUNDARY COLLISION. PWAT VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS NE SC/SE NC...ALONG WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS NEAR THE COAST AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH EVIDENT IN VAPOR MOVIES. THESE FEATURES MAY SUSTAIN CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF EVENING DESPITE A DIURNAL COOLING TREND AFTER DUSK. AT THE SFC A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL RESIDE OVER INLAND ZONES AND SOME DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE AS WELL. LOCALIZED FLOODING APPEARS THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME...THOUGH ANY COLLIDING BOUNDARIES COULD SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS ONCE THE ENSUING UPDRAFT COLLAPSES. DAYBREAK THURSDAY LOW/MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ICW LOCALS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A RETURN OF SWELTERING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ON THU AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE OVER OUR CWA. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 19-20C ON THU AND 20-21C ON FRI AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN DOWNSLOPE ADIABATIC WARMING. EXPECT HIGHS ON THU/FRI TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. GIVEN THE LARGE VARIATIONS BETWEEN GFS/NAM DEWPOINTS ATTM...HAVE OPTED FOR A GMOS/NAM BLEND THAT GIVES DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES OF 100-105F ACROSS THE AREA BOTH DAYS. THE MOST OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BE FELT ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105F. I WILL RAISE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THU FOR ALL OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES...EXCEPT DILLON AND MARLBORO COUNTY. CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY FOR FRI AS WELL. UPPER RIDGING ON THU WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING...AND THE LATEST GFS/NAM RUNS SHOW LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY FOR US DURING THE DAY. WILL STILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEA BREEZE PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LIFT. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF OUR CWA ALONG WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES ON FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO MOVE OVERHEAD LATE FRI. THIS WARRANTS CHC POPS FRI AFTN AND EVENING... HIGHEST ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA. SHEAR PROFILES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE BOTH DAYS...BUT SOME DRY AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGH CAPE VALUES ENSURE THAT MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR CWA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 18Z...ANOTHER SUMMER DAY...MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE LATE...AROUND 20Z LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET. MOST OF IT WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY INLAND. WILL STICK WITH A TEMPO GROUP AS HRRR AND THE WRF MODEL DO HAVE DECENT COVERAGE THE THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RESULTANT BOUNDARY. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR PATCHY IFR FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE MARINE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS 15 KT OR LESS IN PLACE AND SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. SEAS ARE A MIX OF S WAVES 2 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. STEERING WINDS COULD GUIDE STORMS TOWARD THE SE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND GETTING A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE DISEMBARKING IS A GOOD IDEA THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN COULD REDUCE VSBYS TO 1NM AT TIMES. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AOB 10 KTS ON THU BECOMING 10-15 KT BY FRI MORNING. 2 FT SEAS DURING THU WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT OVERNIGHT THU AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD ON FRI...CROSSING OUR WATERS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING FRI WILL PRODUCE 3 FT SEAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT OVERNIGHT FRI AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 5-10 KT FOLLOWING FROPA EARLY SAT MORNING. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ023-032- 033-039-053>056. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...BJR LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MJC/DL MARINE...MJC/BJR/MBB

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