Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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553 FXUS62 KILM 261604 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1204 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will dominate into Sunday, bringing dry weather and increasing heat. A cold front approaching from the north may bring late day thunderstorms to portions of the area Sunday. This front will then linger in the area for much of next week, keeping the weather unsettled. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 AM Friday...Surface high pressure was centered to our south this morning with ridge axis to our W and this high will remain at the helm through tonight. An upper ridge axis will maintain a NW flow aloft today. This ridge will get flattened as a shortwave trough moves through the Great lakes and Mid-West, thus allowing the flow aloft across the eastern Carolinas to become a little more zonal. Very comfortable humidity levels for late May with dewpoints falling to the lower to mid 50s this afternoon. Highs will be in the mid 80s. Except for a few flat cumulus, we expect abundant sunshine today. Winds will be lighter than in recent days, sustained at 10 to 15 mph and mainly from the west. Along the coast, the nearly pinned seabreeze will help to intensify winds to 15 to 20 mph at the beaches as they back to SW this afternoon. Tonight, skies will be clear, except for some thin late night cirrus. Lows will be mainly in the mid and upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Friday...Warm SWly flow around the backside of a ridge over the western Atlantic will keep temperatures summer- like over the Memorial Day Weekend. Temperatures will peak at right around 90 both days, with lower to mid 70s at night. A dry Saturday may be followed by isolated to scattered convection on Sunday as a cold front drops south towards the area, with moisture and convective indices also becoming more favorable for activity. A consensus of guidance has the front just north of the CWA by daybreak on Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Thursday...It looks like the most widespread convection will come on Mon into Tue as the front gets a push south and east into and through the forecast area. Expect the surface front to make it just south by Wed, but it remains aligned SW to NE near or just south of area as a broad upper trough remains over the eastern CONUS. This front looks like it will remain close enough to produce unsettled weather over at least coastal portions of the forecast area through the remainder of the work week. Convection should become more widespread late Mon into Tue with a possible break on Wed as the front moves south with continued convection mainly along the coast or south on Thu. Mid level heights will continue to rise through Mon. This will maintain very warm temps Mon, crossing into the 90s most places. Max Temps will run in the 80s through the rest of the period dampened by clouds, and the moist air mass will keep overnight lows up around 70 most nights in a more summerlike air mass with a slight cooling as front passes through Tue night into Wed.
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As of 12Z Friday...High confidence in VFR at all the terminals. In fact, except for some very small and transient cumulus this afternoon and some thin cirrus during the late night hours tonight, skies will be SKC through the valid TAF period. Winds will be W to WSW at 10 to 20 kt through sunset and then under 10 kt overnight and through the end of the valid TAF period on Sat. Extended Outlook...MVFR conditions possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms late Sun through Tue.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 AM Friday...High pressure will be centered to our S through tonight. Wind speeds will be 10 to 15 kt with gusts around 20 kt across the near shore waters due to the seabreeze circulation this afternoon and eve. The direction will be primarily from the SW. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft, but some residual 5 ft seas across the northern waters may persist into this afternoon. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Friday...High pressure over the western Atlantic will keep up a steady SW flow of 10 to 15 kts through the weekend. Afternoon winds near shore will gust up to around 20 kts as the diurnal sea breeze circulation sets up. Seas will run within a foot of 3 feet through the period. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday and Sunday night as a front drops down from the north. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...High pressure to the south will maintain a SW return flow 10 to 15 mph through much of the period. Seas will remain between 2 and 4 ft through the period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD/III SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...RJD is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.