Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 051428 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1028 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST AND THE PIEDMONT TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS TO OUR WEST WILL PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK...KEEPING IN WARM AND HUMID WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1020 AM SUNDAY...TODAY STARTING OFF MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...WITH A CLEAR RADAR SCOPE AND A VERY STABLE FEEL TO THE AIR. CLOUD COVER EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS KEPT A DAMPER ON TEMPERATURES AND AS A RESULT NO CU DEVELOPMENT TO SPEAK OF. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS THIS MORNING TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND RAMPED BACK AFTERNOON POPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR AN EXPECTED LATER START TO CONVECTION TODAY. ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDING DATA DOES SHOW LESS INSTABILITY THAN YESTERDAY BUT NOT A BIG DIFFERENCE. LATEST DATA AND SATELLITE LOOPS DO NOT REVEAL ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER DISTURBANCES HEADING OUR WAY. ALTHOUGH SPC DOES HAVE US IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BASED ON ABOVE THINK WE WILL SEE PRESENT LULL IN CONVECTION CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG CONVECTION HAPPENING CLOSER TO EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IN TENNESSEE WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND KEEP A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF NC. ALTHOUGH FORCING REMAINS MINIMAL...THERE IS A HINT OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF POPS PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE LOWER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS CONTINUES TO BE THE BETTER PLAY AND WILL ONCE AGAIN APPLY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...CUTOFF LOW WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON MONDAY FLATTENING OUT THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW A BIT AND ALLOWING FOR INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND RIDGING HEADING INTO MID WEEK. AS THIS LOW LIFTS NORTH SOME SHORTWAVE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE STRETCHED ON THE EASTERN EDGE AND MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUES...BUT OVERALL EXPECT INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE OVERALL LOSS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT...BUT A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE...EXPECT MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER WITH ONLY LOCALIZED SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE SFC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A FAIRLY TYPICAL MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WED THROUGH FRI. RIDGE WILL BUILD UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE MAY PUSH A WEAKENING BOUNDARY/TROUGH INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THURS BEFORE RIDGE STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE WEEK. OVERALL EXPECT TYPICAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE OR INLAND ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF AREA FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL PRODUCE A STRONGER NORTHERLY PUSH WHICH MAY BRINGS BOUNDARY SOUTH AND PRODUCE A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE NORTH COME FRI INTO SAT....BUT INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY MORE LOCALIZED. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 12Z...UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP THINGS MOIST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER TODAY. LOTS OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION THIS MORNING ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THINGS STABLE FOR QUITE A WHILE WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO NOT DEVELOP TIL AFTER 21Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY...NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.&& && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1020 AM SUNDAY...HAVE ALLOWED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AS CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED. LATEST OBS SHOW 3 FT SEAS WITH SOUTH WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS. WINDS WILL SWING TO THE SW LATER THIS MORNING AND PICK UP INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...WITH THESE CONDITIONS MAINTAINING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...CONTINUED SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A SPIKE IN WINDS EACH AFTN IN SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL BASICALLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT AS SHORTER SW WIND WAVE MIXES WITH A LONGER PERIOD UP TO 9 SEC SE SWELL. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...OVERALL EXPECT SW FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH BUT SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE BY TO THE NORTH AND WILL PUSH TROUGH EASTWARD WHICH MAY SHIFT WINDS AROUND BRIEFLY TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS. THIS MAY ALSO PRODUCE A UPTICK IN THE WINDS AND SEAS IN A TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW LATE WED UP TO 15 KTS OR SO WHICH IN TURN WILL PUSH SEAS UP CLOSER TO 4 TO 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT SEAS 2 TO 4 FT WITH A MIX OF SHORTER PERIOD SW WIND WAVES MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD UP TO 9 SEC SE SWELL. THE BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW INTO THURS SHOULD KNOCK SEAS DOWN A BIT.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...REK/SHK SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DL MARINE...REK/RGZ/SHK

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