Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 211140 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 740 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CHILLY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OFF THE COAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH EDGES ESE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A SUNNY START WILL GREET A QUIET AND SEASONABLE MORNING WITH MODERATE EARLY MORNING DEW AND PATCHES OF MIST. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO COMMUTES ARE EXPECTED NOR WIDESPREAD REDUCTION OF VISIBILITIES. STRONG WARMING TODAY WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF A LATE SEPTEMBER FEEL. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST INTO THE DAYBREAK UPDATES...AND THE PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE MOVING NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WAS TRIPPING OFF CONVECTION ALONG THE SC COAST AROUND CHARLESTON TO OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR TO THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS ACTION BORN OF DYNAMICS ALOFT WAS MOVING ENE ALONG MID-LEVEL FLOW. SUBSIDENT DRYING AND WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS EXITING IMPULSE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING CLEARING. STRONG WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH A TRIFECTA CONTRIBUTION OF DIURNAL...ADIABATIC...AND ADVECTION WARMTH TODAY. STRAYED NOT TOO FAR FROM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT OPTED FOR THE UPPER END OF THE ENVELOPE NEAR THE COAST...SINCE MODELS TOO OFTEN UNDER-ESTIMATE THE WARMING ADDED FROM DOWN-SLOPE COMPRESSION. WITH THIS IN MIND..A 78-82 DEGREE RANGE EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN THE COASTAL INTERIOR TODAY...SINCE IT APPEARS THE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL BE HELD AT SEA WITH W-WSW WIND FLOW THROUGH THE MAXIMUM OF DIURNAL WARMING. DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AND TURN WINDS FROM THE NORTH BECOMING GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SPILLS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION TO DEEP NNW FLOW AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING SHOT OF AUTUMN FEEL. MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED FIRST LIGHT WELL INLAND ON WEDNESDAY...TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE FEATURE OF EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE FRIDAY MORNING. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET AND DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF A ZONAL WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE IS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF IFR THIS MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE CURRENTLY CREATING IFR AT BOTH KFLO AND KLBT THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AOB 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE...AS VFR PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 421 AM TUESDAY...W-WSW WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY 15 KT OR LESS TURNING SW IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL HOLD N A 2-3 FOOT RANGE TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WIND...HIGHEST OUTER PORTION. TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND-SHIFT TO THE NNW IN THE LATE EVENING TO VERY EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS TO 15-20 KT AND A CAUTION STATEMENT COULD BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT SEAS UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AND 20 KT WINDS...THIS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF ESE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 10 SECONDS...AND 0.5-1.5 FT OF WSW-SW WIND- SEAS AND CHOPPINESS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AND FAVORED OVER THE MILDER OFFSHORE WATERS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET THURSDAY. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL

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