Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 281718 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 118 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...SOME CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE UP OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT REGION BUT OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM-FREE. A MODEST CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED BUT OTHERWISE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SUPPRESSED AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWS: WATER VAPOR MOVIES FROM SPACE THIS MORNING SHOW A BROAD UPPER HIGH MIGRATING SLOWLY WESTWARD...CENTERED NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED OVER THE CAROLINAS ACROSS THIS UPPER RIDGE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS EAST WIND 10-15 KT WAS OBSERVED BY KLTX VWP IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET VEERING TO NE ABOVE THIS LAYER. OFFSHORE...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS DEEPENING FROM JAX FL TO SE OF CAPE FEAR. KLTX MEASURING SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM ECHOES FROM 20NM OFFSHORE OF CHS TO 80NM SE OF CAPE FEAR...SHOWING LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT. OVER OUR LAND AREAS TODAY...MODEST MOISTURE...GOOD SURFACE HEATING...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT IN THE NW FLOW...WARRANTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY AFTN INTO EVENING. MAXIMUMS TODAY MIDDLE 90S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 90 COASTAL INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S COAST. 72-77 FOR LOWS WED...MILDEST COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE SAME AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF CONVECTION TO READILY DEVELOP MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THE STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MEANDER INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST POPS RESIDE HERE WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST JUST SEEING ISOLATED WEAKER AND SHORT LIVED ACTIVITY. EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISING A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD AS SEVERAL ELEMENTS TEAM UP. FIRST A WEAKNESS WILL PREVAIL AT THE MID LEVELS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND WEST. SECOND...TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THIS WILL ADD A THIRD ELEMENT...A FRONT THAT STALLS IN THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR EACH DAY. SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH IS ALWAYS IN PLAY THIS TIME OF YEAR MAY BE MORE ALIGNED TO THE TROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE MORE SHEAR. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AS HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE UNDER AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE. && .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 12Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT NE WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND LIGHT EAST WINDS INLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS AND LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LIGHT NE-E WINDS...EXCEPT E-SE WINDS 6-15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SCT-BKN CU/SC 2.5-4KK WITH SOME SCT MID CLOUDS AROUND 11K THIS MORNING. TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING 13-16Z. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCT AS THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE TO THE SE OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND NW OF THE INLAND TERMINALS. THUS ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE TODAY. THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM ONLY AT KFLO/KLBT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE. SCATTERED ACTIVITY FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW 3 FT SEAS WITH NE TO ERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS FITS IN WELL WITH THE FORECAST. EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED WITH THE NEXT COUPLE OF UPDATES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWS: GENERALLY E WINDS 10-12 KT WITH 3-4 FT SEAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO ESE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS INSHORE. STRONGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT OUTER PORTIONS TODAY...NORTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM JAX FL TO 80NM SE OF CAPE FEAR. WAVES 3-4 FT MAINLY SSE EVERY 7 SECONDS IN OPEN DEEP WATER. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE THEME ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH WELL TO THE SOUTH. SOME VEERING OF THE WIND DIRECTION IS ALMOST A GIVEN CLOSER TO THE SHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS NEGLIGIBLE. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT MAKES A RUN FOR THE COAST FRIDAY BUT AS USUAL...FALLS WELL SHORT. NO REAL CATALYST IN THE ATLANTIC TO PROVIDE A MEANINGFUL SWELL COMPONENT TO THE WAVE SPECTRUM AND MOSTLY WIND DRIVEN SEAS OF 1-3 FEET WILL SUFFICE.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MRR MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK

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