Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS62 KILM 161708
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1208 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure will reach across the Carolinas as it moves by to
the south today through early Saturday. A fair day Saturday may
be followed by a chance of rain Saturday night into Sunday.
High pressure will build in late Sunday through Tuesday. A
chance of rain will return to the area the middle of next week
as a storm system moves across the Southeast.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM Thursday...Cold advection continues today, keeping
highs below climo. Upstream 12Z soundings show 30-40kt winds at
the top of the mixed layer, which is also supported by
soundings. Mixing should bring much of these winds to the
surface in the form of gusts, especially across NC and would
expect to see gust of 25 to 30 mph developing by afternoon.
Upstream cirrus has thus far been having trouble moving past
the mountains of western NC and this is likely to be the trend
for much of the day. Some cloud will ultimately reach the area,
especially western NC counties, but should be thin enough to
have minimal impact on sky cover.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...Longwave upper troffing affecting the
Eastern 1/3rd of the U.S. this week appears to be in for some
changes given various model solutions. Mid-level s/w ridging to
develop and push to the area by Sat with the ridge axis aloft
pushing off the East coast late Sat. A southern stream
weak mid-level s/w trof, that was once a closed Low over the SW
States Thu/Fri, will dampen-some as it tracks east, reaching
the ILM CWA late Sat thru Sat night. At the sfc, a weak sfc low
or just plain sfc troffing, will affect the area Sat night.
Dynamics sfc and aloft remain weak but enough to include a low
chance for pcpn, with Pops highest relatively speaking, along
and off the coast. With all of this said, looking at mainly
clear skies and benign weather on Fri with moderating temps to
around normal climo values. For Sat, temps further increase to
above climo, however increasing clouds during Sat followed by a
low chance for light showers late Sat thru Sat night.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...Shortwave axis traversing the area in the
mid levels Sunday morn while deep and low layer moisture move
offshore. Low level thermal trough axis will move off the coast
early so even though boundary layer winds remain northerly there
will be enough temperature recovery for a mild afternoon. Over
the next few days some impressive pattern amplification will be
underway with the Carolinas just downstream of the developing
ridge axis. A fairly strong upper low will traverse TX/Mexico
and move into the Gulf over the midweek period but continues to
slow in model guidance. Its local effects if any will be
relegated to beyond the long term. The proper part of the
forecast period will thus feature increasing warmth unless some
of the older and less favored quicker southern branch solutions
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 18Z...VFR this TAF cycle. Gusty W-WNW winds until 23Z when
decreased atmospheric mixing allow winds to diminish to 6 KT or
less generally from the W. SKC overnight with no visibility
impediments expected. Light winds and a bit of cirrus Friday
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Primarily VFR. Possible MVFR/IFR conditions
in showers Sat night thru Sun due to the passage of a low
-- End Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM Thursday...SCA has expired for the NC waters with
conditions having dropped below SCEC thresholds. Offshore flow
will remain brisk today with speeds of 15 to 20 kt helping keep
seas anywhere from 2 to 5 ft. Portion of waters with 4 to 5 ft
seas will be limited, mainly NC waters well away from the
coast. Gradient and cold advection remain static for much of
the day and evening before weakening later today. Isolated gusts
of 25 to 30 kt will be possible especially where water temps are
warmest given the presence of stronger winds aloft.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...Benign conditions for Friday with high
pressure ridging in from the northeast Gulf of Mexico. For
Friday night through daytime Sat, the center of the high will
move across Florida and offshore from it`s east coast. Ridging
from the high will continue to affect the ILM waters with a
semi-relaxed sfc pg that yields around 10 kt for Friday and 10
to 15 kt Sat. A disorganized and weak low pressure system will
track from the Gulf Coast states across the local waters Sat
night. At this time, models indicate little to no
intensification as it moves across the area waters Sat night
and therefore will continue with a rather subtle wind and seas
forecast. Will include low Pops for light pcpn Sat night.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...Though an upper disturbance will be
swinging through on Sunday the surface gradient will remain
quite light. NW winds of around 10kt may occasionally gust to
15. High pressure then slides by to our north turning wind from
NW to NE. Little change in seas or wind speed expected.