Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 161708 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1208 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will reach across the Carolinas as it moves by to the south today through early Saturday. A fair day Saturday may be followed by a chance of rain Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure will build in late Sunday through Tuesday. A chance of rain will return to the area the middle of next week as a storm system moves across the Southeast.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 AM Thursday...Cold advection continues today, keeping highs below climo. Upstream 12Z soundings show 30-40kt winds at the top of the mixed layer, which is also supported by soundings. Mixing should bring much of these winds to the surface in the form of gusts, especially across NC and would expect to see gust of 25 to 30 mph developing by afternoon. Upstream cirrus has thus far been having trouble moving past the mountains of western NC and this is likely to be the trend for much of the day. Some cloud will ultimately reach the area, especially western NC counties, but should be thin enough to have minimal impact on sky cover. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Thursday...Longwave upper troffing affecting the Eastern 1/3rd of the U.S. this week appears to be in for some changes given various model solutions. Mid-level s/w ridging to develop and push to the area by Sat with the ridge axis aloft pushing off the East coast late Sat. A southern stream weak mid-level s/w trof, that was once a closed Low over the SW States Thu/Fri, will dampen-some as it tracks east, reaching the ILM CWA late Sat thru Sat night. At the sfc, a weak sfc low or just plain sfc troffing, will affect the area Sat night. Dynamics sfc and aloft remain weak but enough to include a low chance for pcpn, with Pops highest relatively speaking, along and off the coast. With all of this said, looking at mainly clear skies and benign weather on Fri with moderating temps to around normal climo values. For Sat, temps further increase to above climo, however increasing clouds during Sat followed by a low chance for light showers late Sat thru Sat night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 AM Thursday...Shortwave axis traversing the area in the mid levels Sunday morn while deep and low layer moisture move offshore. Low level thermal trough axis will move off the coast early so even though boundary layer winds remain northerly there will be enough temperature recovery for a mild afternoon. Over the next few days some impressive pattern amplification will be underway with the Carolinas just downstream of the developing ridge axis. A fairly strong upper low will traverse TX/Mexico and move into the Gulf over the midweek period but continues to slow in model guidance. Its local effects if any will be relegated to beyond the long term. The proper part of the forecast period will thus feature increasing warmth unless some of the older and less favored quicker southern branch solutions pan out. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 18Z...VFR this TAF cycle. Gusty W-WNW winds until 23Z when decreased atmospheric mixing allow winds to diminish to 6 KT or less generally from the W. SKC overnight with no visibility impediments expected. Light winds and a bit of cirrus Friday morning. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Primarily VFR. Possible MVFR/IFR conditions in showers Sat night thru Sun due to the passage of a low pressure system.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 AM Thursday...SCA has expired for the NC waters with conditions having dropped below SCEC thresholds. Offshore flow will remain brisk today with speeds of 15 to 20 kt helping keep seas anywhere from 2 to 5 ft. Portion of waters with 4 to 5 ft seas will be limited, mainly NC waters well away from the coast. Gradient and cold advection remain static for much of the day and evening before weakening later today. Isolated gusts of 25 to 30 kt will be possible especially where water temps are warmest given the presence of stronger winds aloft. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Thursday...Benign conditions for Friday with high pressure ridging in from the northeast Gulf of Mexico. For Friday night through daytime Sat, the center of the high will move across Florida and offshore from it`s east coast. Ridging from the high will continue to affect the ILM waters with a semi-relaxed sfc pg that yields around 10 kt for Friday and 10 to 15 kt Sat. A disorganized and weak low pressure system will track from the Gulf Coast states across the local waters Sat night. At this time, models indicate little to no intensification as it moves across the area waters Sat night and therefore will continue with a rather subtle wind and seas forecast. Will include low Pops for light pcpn Sat night. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 AM Thursday...Though an upper disturbance will be swinging through on Sunday the surface gradient will remain quite light. NW winds of around 10kt may occasionally gust to 15. High pressure then slides by to our north turning wind from NW to NE. Little change in seas or wind speed expected. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...8

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