Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 251723 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 123 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Summer-like warmth will continue through the end of the week as high pressure remains entrenched across the western Atlantic. Low pressure will develop near the Bahamas and move towards the southeast coast this weekend. This feature will drift near the coast Sunday through early next week, bringing an extended period of unsettled weather and cooler temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 115 PM Wednesday...No changes to the near term forecast with the latest update. Relevant portion of previous discussion from early this morning follows: Maximums today 86-90 inland and 81-85 closer to the coast. A strengthening sea breeze this afternoon will generate a rope of inland progressing, enhanced surface convergence. While this may spark moderate cumulus, overwhelming dryness above 8000 FT will make it difficult to pop a shower, so no mentionable in the precipitation category today. A fair evening and overnight period expected with mostly clear skies and light surface wind. Patchy ground fog is probable in some spots but increasing boundary layer winds late will likely prevent extensive fog or mist coverage. Minimums daybreak Thursday 62-68, and mildest near the Atlantic. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...Main weather captions this time period highlight above normal warmth Thursday similar to today, then a chance of tropical showers late Friday night into early Saturday. Confidence is high on a sunny and warm day Thursday, but a bit less resolute on tropical moisture infusion timing late Friday. At a minimum we will see an uptick in absolute low-level humidity along with an increasing chance of moderately strong rip currents and showers heading into the weekend. Increasing clouds will shave a few Fahrenheits off our maximum temperatures on Friday but the trade off of more humidity may keep apparent temps similar. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday...All eyes for the Memorial Day weekend will be on the tropics as a disturbed area of weather near the Bahamas organizes into a wave of low pressure and moves westward towards the southeast coast. Guidance has been remarkably consistent for several days now in developing this system and drifting it westward...but forecast confidence remains low as to how exactly our area weather will be impacted. Ridge of high pressure across the Atlantic Ocean will weaken and move northward as the trough of low pressure skirts to the west beneath it. By least a weak low pressure trough is progged to be off the SC coast. This will then meander slowly in a col on the western side of the weakening ridge...and it is primarily the position and strength of that feature which will dictate the movement of the trough. NHC has a 30% chance of subtropical/tropical formation in the next 5 days...and while the low will move quite slowly...water temps are cool and forecast models struggle to give it a warm core. That being may be irrelevant as far as sensible weather goes whether this becomes a named system or just a weak low an extended period of unsettled weather lasting through the holiday weekend. Deep ribbon of tropical moisture could angle directly into the ILM CWA...especially if the low stays to our south...and some of the latest guidance has the low drifting SW Sunday and then back to the NE early next week (similar to the track of Beryl in 2012)...which could make for a long duration of unsettled weather. Attm will show an extended period of CHC pop throughout the period...but it is unlikely the entire 4 days will be a washout as periods of rainfall will be dictated by upper diffluence within jet structures...surface convergence...and vorticity dynamics...all of which can vary highly. Still...widespread clouds and at least periods of rain are forecast Sat-Tue...with highs likely below climo and mins slightly above. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 18Z...VFR conditions through the period. Shallow convective clouds showing a little more coverage this afternoon but should pose no threat to aviation concerns. Column remains too dry to support any significant fog formation. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected...until the weekend when MVFR gigs are possible in scattered to numerous showers, isolated TSTMS.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 115 PM Wednesday...Benign conditions over the waters continue this afternoon. Latest obs show a light W to SW wind with seas of 2 ft or less. Previous discussion from early this morning follows: Smooth sailing and power boating conditions on tap today as seas hold in a 1.5 - 2.5 foot range today in 8-9 second intervals, co- mingled with a light SW chop. Chop will build a bit in the afternoon as we expect a robust sea breeze circulation and a few inshore gusts of S-SSW up to 18 kt between 2 PM - 6 PM. No showers or TSTMS or restrictions to VSBY anticipated today. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...Manageable marine conditions will prevail Thursday with 2-3 ft seas, moderate S-SW winds and no hazardous marine weather. Dominant wave periods Thursday 7-8 seconds so no sharp wave steepness to contend with. Friday a good beginning but development of an increasing fetch distance and speed will likely boost sea heights to a 3-5 ft range late Friday. Very early on Saturday a small craft advisory for seas cannot be ruled out as the wave building fetch endures. Showers and isolated TSTMS will be on the increase late Friday as potentially a tropical low approaches the coast. If you have boating plans this weekend please keep abreast of the trends from Friday into Saturday. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday...Significant uncertainty exists in this period...but poor marine conditions are becoming more likely as a wave of low pressure moves out of the Bahamas and towards the southeast coast. The guidance is in agreement that this will occur...but differ considerably on location and intensity and timing. This suggests that while seas will almost certainly increase on prolonged easterly fetch...up to at least 3-5 ft with possible 6 footers both days...winds could be highly variable. For now...have used a blend of the guidance to produce primarily easterly winds at 10-15 kts...which will create a low amplitude wind wave on top of the more significant easterly swell. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...MJC/RGZ LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...SHK MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.