Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 140821 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 321 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Canadian high pressure to our north will bring near seasonable and dry conditions this week. A strong cold front is expected to cross the coast next weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 321 AM Tuesday...A westerly flow will continue at the mid levels with a shortwave now in the Mississippi Valley to move across rapidly this afternoon. This should have little impact on the weather other than to spark a few clouds mostly of the mid level variety. Beyond this surface high pressure will migrate slowly from the Ohio Valley to the east. This will allow a very long and narrow ridge extending from Maine down into the southeast to develop. Highs today will be in the upper 50s to near 60 with lows Wednesday morning in the upper 30s to near 40. There once again could be some patchy frost inland in the low lying areas but unless guidance changes appreciably, there shouldn`t be a need for a NPW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 321 AM Tuesday...Seasonal temperatures and fair this period in wake of an exiting short-wave, leaving a dry NW-W flow aloft across the region Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday warmer, as the upper flow trends toward zonal and downslope forms in the low levels. Very weak short-waves slated to ripple overhead early Thursday, should result only in mid/upper level clouds at best. At the surface, weakening high pressure Wednesday will be re-newed Thursday in wake of the exiting short-wave.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...Low amplitude flow aloft to keep surface features very progressive, especially early in the period. High pressure will move east across the region Thursday into Friday allowing for a gradual warming trend, and possibly a downright surge of warmth ahead of approaching cold front on Saturday. This front comes through Saturday night bringing rain chances though QPF prospects still appear minimal. Quite a cooldown is slated following this boundary, though guidance seemingly unsure about the magnitude of the cold i.e. whether or not we get into some bona-fide arctic air. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 06Z...Stratus is making its way south this morning but the coverage is somewhat disorganized and guidance appears to keep it so for the next several hours. IFR conditions should persist in Wilmington but other sites along the coast should see only scattered ceilings. Some higher level cloud cover may develop later this afternoon but should have little impact on the aviation community. Extended Outlook...VFR with a chance of early morning BR/MVFR vsbys Wed-Fri. VFR Sat becoming MVFR/SHRA/TS Sat evng. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 321 AM Tuesday...A persistent northeasterly flow will continue through the period. Speeds will generally be in a range of 15-20 knots today and increase a little tonight to 20-25 knots on the lower end of the range. Significant seas will be 3-5 feet. There may be the need for a short lived small craft advisory tonight bur for now will maintain the SCEC headline. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 321 AM Tuesday...Moderate offshore N-NW winds expected this period, and as such, higher gusts and larger seas will be seen across the outer waters in general. High pressure to the north will weaken briefly late Wed and early Thu, and winds will ease noticeably. Re-newed high pressure Thursday however will bring an uptick in winds by Thu evening in N winds gusting up to 20 Kt. NE wave energy will overall subside this period, and dominant wave periods should increase to 8-9 seconds, with light to moderate offshore chop, no TSTMS expected. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...A pretty weak pressure gradient in place as high pressure weakens. The overall wind direction will remain northerly and seas capped at 2-3 ft. A new high then builds in Friday briefly strengthening winds but then the high quickly moves overhead both weakening the flow and leading to considerable veering in direction as return flow sets up. With the high then off the coast on Saturday the approach of a fairly robust cold front will tighten the gradient sufficiently to where headlines or even advisory may be needed.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SHK

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