Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 140935 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 435 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Relatively cooler high pressure will extend into the Carolinas through the weekend. A warming trend will take place Tuesday through Thursday in south winds ahead of another cold front. Rain chances will ramp up late next week as the front stalls, followed by a low pressure system from the Gulf states.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 400 AM Saturday...Maximums to run 15-20 degrees cooler than yesterday, and much more aligned today with climatology for mid January. The current NE surge in wake if a cold front is not a strong one, but low-level moisture advection will bring a fair amount of clouds today. No rain chances today as moisture profile contains little depth. Clouds and NE winds to prevail tonight with min temperatures in the mid and upper 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 400 AM Saturday...Good bit of clouds this period as low- level moisture remains high. This will be helped along by resurgence of high pressure late Sunday into Monday as a secondary wedge becomes established. Highs similar both Sunday and Monday but slightly cooler Monday as the wedge builds in. No significant rainfall in the forecast this period but a few sprinkles on Monday cannot be ruled out as moisture deepens to 700 MB.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 300 AM Saturday...Mid to upper ridge extending up through the southeast will shift east along with surface high, allowing a deep S-SW flow of warmer and moister air to feed into the Carolinas. Tuesday will warm and combine with some increasing sunshine to produce temps close to 70 while Wed will continue warm with temps in the 70s, but expect increasing clouds and chc of showers ahead of approaching cold front. The GFS shows a deeper trough aloft pushing cold front a bit farther south allowing drier high pressure to build in behind cold front Wed night into Thurs. The ECMWF keeps front draped closer, leaving a cloudier and wetter day for Thurs. Overall it looks like more unsettled weather may affect the Carolinas Thurs or Fri. Temps will drop back down several degrees behind front late Wed into Thurs but will continue to remain above normal.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 06z...Backdoor frontal passage had moved just south of KFLO and KMYR, with MVFR ceilings beginning to fill in across the area. Low-level moisture will increase through the night and become trapped beneath the frontal inversion, and will produce low MVFR ceilings, if not IFR at times. Ceilings/vis will continue to trend down in the evening as winds become calm, and there will be potential for IFR. Extended...Cold front expected Wednesday will be accompanied by showers and MVFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM Saturday...Advisory conditions until late morning or midday as the surge of NE wind plays out, but improving marine conditions tonight as winds tail off. E swell wave of long period around 11 seconds will interact with NE wind waves in 4-5 seconds intervals. NO TSTMS this period. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Saturday...After a brief lull in Sunday, an uptick in NE winds will prevail as a secondary surge unfolds late Sunday into Monday. Not a strong surge so only a `Cautionary` headline may suffice this period as opposed to an Advisory. Expect gusts to 20 KT Sunday night through Monday with no TSTMS expected. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM Saturday...South to southwest winds will develop on Tues and will increase ahead of approaching cold front. This will drive seas up to 3 to 5 ft through Wed, but as the front moves into area waters and possibly stalls late Wed, the winds will veer slightly becoming more westerly. The off shore component to the flow will keep highest seas well off the coast.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ250- 252. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MJC/CRM

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