Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 151833 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 133 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD WILL SLIP FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING WET CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH A SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOON AND TEMPS BETWEEN 60 AND 65 THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN...KEEPING SUNNY SKIES. A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER GEORGIA WILL REACH THE AREA BUT SHOULD NOT BE TOO NOTICEABLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN OVERALL RISE IN MOISTURE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 40S THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOULD DECOUPLE NICELY THIS EVENING ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP OUT BUT WITH THE SLIGHT RISE IN MOISTURE AND WAA...SHOULD SEE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR RISE TOWARD MORNING IF WINDS KICK UP AT ALL. EXPECT MIN TEMPS CLOSER TO 40 MOST PLACES TONIGHT. WILL KEEP FOG IN PLACES TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE ALIGNED UP THE EAST COAST TODAY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE RETURN IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT CLEAR SKIES MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MAY REACH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WED. COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OPENING SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TUE. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. VERY DRY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH ONLY A SHORT WINDOW OF GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION PRECEDING FROPA MAKES WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIP UNLIKELY. BRIEF PERIOD TUE AFTERNOON WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 1 INCH BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN MARGINAL AND THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ABOVE AND BELOW THE MOIST LAYER...850MB TO 700MB. CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN ABUNDANCE AND DO EXPECT ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIP IS UNLIKELY. INHERITED SLIGHT CHC POP REMAINS VALID. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LACK OF IMMEDIATE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS TUE MAY APPROACH UPPER 60S AT SOME INLAND LOCATIONS. PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN ON WED HELPS PUSH ELONGATED HIGH CLOSER TO THE REGION AND ALSO LIMITS THE STRENGTH OF THE POST FRONT COLD ADVECTION. WED TEMPS DO GET KNOCKED DOWN ON THE BACK OF NORTHERLY FLOW BUT HIGHS STILL END UP NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO. INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MAY TEMPER COOLING A BIT WED NIGHT BUT LIGHT WINDS AND DRY MID LEVEL AIR ALONG WITH LATE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE ALOFT DOES OPEN WINDOW FOR AT LEAST SOME WEAK RADIATIONAL COOLING WED NIGHT...DROPPING LOWS CLOSE TO CLIMO. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RIFE WITH QUESTIONS AND THUS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO RUN QUITE LOW. THU AND FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN SLOWLY BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SYSTEM. AT THE SURFACE SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF OF THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHERN CANADA WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO WHILE AT NIGHT LOWS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMO. THE BIG UNKNOWN FOR THE PERIOD REMAINS THE ANTICIPATED SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...A FEATURE THAT IS CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. FEEL CONFIDENT A SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT SOME POINT LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THAT IS WHERE THE CONFIDENCE STARTS TO DIMINISH. THE EJECTING WAVE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A SURFACE INFLECTION...WHICH COULD BECOME A WELL DEFINED CYCLONE IF THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AND A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE HAPPEN TO INTERACT...SOMETHING BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN HINTING AT AT TIMES. EITHER WAY IT CERTAINLY APPEARS PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS INCREASED DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE SPREADS GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL DETERMINE THE MODE OF PRECIP...STRATIFORM VS CONVECTIVE...AND ALSO PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE IN THE TEMP FORECAST SAT AND SAT NIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL EXPERIENCE A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND TEMPS BELOW CLIMO SUN AND SUN NIGHT. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 18Z...VARIABLE BUT MAINLY SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG SETTING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY IFR AT CRE. TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...BUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WED THROUGH FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN ON SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A RELAXED GRADIENT FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS IT SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE E-NE THIS AFTERNOON TO SE-S BY MORNING. WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY BY DAYBREAK IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A 1 TO 2 FOOT LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY GROUND SWELL PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT. BY MORNING AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP...A SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE WAVE SPECTRUM. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL PEAK AT A SOLID 15 KT LATE TUE...PUSHING SEAS TO 3 TO 5 FT TUE EVE. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT BUT LACKS STRONG COLD ADVECTION. MARGINAL GRADIENT COMBINED WITH LIMITED COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WINDS DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY MIDDAY WED. OFFSHORE FLOW AND DECREASING WIND SPEEDS LEAD TO SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WED MORNING FALLING TO 2 FT OR LESS BY EVENING. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD. GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA AND WINDS RETAIN A NORTHERLY COMPONENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT WIND FIELD WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...DL

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