Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 132259 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 602 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure to our north will bring near seasonable temperatures during the upcoming week, along with dry conditions. A strong cold front is expected to cross the coast next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...Clipper system and its associated upper support have moved offshore, and with it, the last of the rain and drizzle. Cool and dry air will follow, with skies clearing for the remainder of this afternoon and evening. Look for a clear overnight period as high pressure builds in. A consensus of guidance gives has a light northerly breeze continuing overnight. This will inhibit radiational cooling somewhat, keeping lows lows up in the lower to mid 40s despite cold FROPA. Cool and dry high pressure overhead will bring plenty of sun for Tuesday with highs in the upper 50s for most places. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Monday...High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic Tue night will become elongated as it drifts east on Wed. Progressive flow aloft Wed will help push a dry cold front into the region. The surface high weakens and dissipates later Wed into Wed night before the front crosses the area late in the period. Precipitable water will remain under half an inch through the period, approaching a quarter inch at times, and forecast soundings show an abundance of low and mid level dry air. There does appear to be a fair amount of moisture above 25k ft, especially Wed afternoon and Wed night. A weak 5h shortwave, more like a ripple than a wave, moves in from the west Wed night and is associated with the cold front. What limited amount of PVA there is ahead of the wave could generate some cirrus, but anything more is unlikely. Low temperatures will end up near to slightly below climo. Radiational cooling might result in typical cold spots running a little colder Tue night, but boundary layer winds will likely be to strong to maximize cooling. Highs on Wednesday will end up several degrees below climo despite mostly sunny skies. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...Low amplitude flow aloft to keep surface features very progressive, especially early in the period. High pressure will move east across the region Thursday into Friday allowing for a gradual warming trend, and possibly a downright surge of warmth ahead of approaching cold front on Saturday. This front comes through Saturday night bringing rain chances though QPF prospects still appear minimal. Quite a cooldown is slated following this boundary, though guidance seemingly unsure about the magnitude of the cold i.e. whether or not we get into some bona-fide arctic air. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 00Z...Satellite shows some low MVFR ceilings in Morehead City`s CWA. Think most of that will stay north of the region. There will be a period toward morning that it will be possible for near IFR/MVFR conditions to develop, but it should be short lived. Tuesday, continued northerly flow with a MVFR stratocu ceiling forming around mid morning. Extended Outlook...VFR with a chance of early morning BR/MVFR vsbys Wed-Fri. VFR Sat becoming MVFR/SHRA/TS Sat evng.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...Expect northerly winds through the period in the wake of a recent cold- frontal passage. WInds will increase from 10 to 15 kts this afternoon to 15 to 20 kts for tonight and Tuesday as a cold surge pick up steam. Offshore fetch will limit sea heights to the 2 to 4 ft range through the near term. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Monday...North to northeast flow Tue night will be on the high side of the 15 to 20 kt range into Wed. The gradient starts to weaken Wed afternoon with speeds dropping to 10 to 15 kt by midday and closer to 10 kt Wed night. Seas 3 to 4 ft may briefly touch 5 ft Tue night but decreasing wind speeds later Wed and Wed night will result in a downward trend in seas. As early as midday Wed, seas could be down to 2 to 4 ft, dropping to 2 to 3 ft by the evening hours. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...A pretty weak pressure gradient in place as high pressure weakens. The overall wind direction will remain northerly and seas capped at 2-3 ft. A new high then builds in Friday briefly strengthening winds but then the high quickly moves overhead both weakening the flow and leading to considerable veering in direction as return flow sets up. With the high then off the coast on Saturday the approach of a fairly robust cold front will tighten the gradient sufficiently to where headlines or even advisory may be needed. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...43 MARINE...REK/III/MBB

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