Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 190219 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1018 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD TAKE SOME EDGE OFF THE HEAT...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 10:15 PM MONDAY...MOST CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH WE MAY GET THE TAIL END OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS CUMBERLAND AND SAMPSON COUNTIES TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONVECTION CHANCES TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS: UPPER RIDGE REMNANTS OVER THE AREA ALBEIT FLATTENED BY PASSING SHORT-WAVE ENERGY...HAS ALLOWED POOR MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO LINGER OVER THE WARNING AREA. A STRONG MCV FEATURE WAS AIDING IN STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION OVER NE NC AND SE VA. ANOTHER IMPULSE HEADING INTO WESTERN SC WAS SETTING OFF SCATTERED TSTMS FROM FAR AUGUSTA GA TO COLUMBIA SC TO MARLBORO COUNTY SC. STEERING FLOW WILL GUIDE CONVECTION FROM WSW TO ENE AT 25 TO 30 MPH. SEVERAL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WHERE AN AWAITING AND PARTIALLY PINNED SEA BRZ COULD POTENTIALLY PULSE ECHO TOPS TO HIGHER REACHES...POSSIBLY PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALONG OUR COASTAL INTERIOR IN LATE AFTN THROUGH MID-EVENING. TEPID OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY BARELY FALL BELOW 80 NEAR THE COAST WITH MODERATE SW WINDS AND DEBRIS CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND ALSO THE ELEVATED MAXIMUMS WE SAW TODAY. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP IN RAPID FASHION. MINIMUMS DAYBREAK TUESDAY ESSENTIALLY 77-80 NEAR THE COAST AND MIDDLE 70S FARTHER INLAND. LOWS NEAR THE BEACHES 81-83 DEGREES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR ONE MORE DAY OR TWO DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL YOU PREFER. THE ZONAL FLOW AT THE BASE OF A SUBTLE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL BE THE CULPRIT. THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER RESPECTABLE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT MAX HEATING AS DOES THE NAM. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE ROBUST POPS FOR THIS TIME. FOR WEDNESDAY...BOTH MODELS GENERATE PRECIPITATION BUT THE GFS SEEMS TO BE MORE DERIVED FROM THE SEA BREEZE WHILE THE NAM SHOWS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. I INCREMENTALLY INCREASED POPS FOR THIS TIME BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE KNOWING IT WONT TAKE MUCH OF A CATALYST FOR DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT AND NO CHANGES WERE WARRANTED. READINGS WILL REMAIN ABOUT A FULL CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS THE BOARD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING ONE LAST DAY OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH NW FLOW LOCALLY. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THIS FLOW AND HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EMBEDDED THEREIN, WHICH WILL MODIFY OUR PRECIP CHANCES. THE CMC ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE LATTER KEEPS ENERGY AND PRECIP CHANCES JUST NORTH OF HERE WHILE THE GFS HAS LOWERING HEIGHTS IN A VORTICITY-LADEN FLOW. WILL PAINT HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN ZONES BUT ALLOW FOR ISO COVERAGE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES AND/OR HEATING LEADING TO PARCELS AUTO-CONVECTING TO THE LFC/LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY TURN ACTIVE AS DEEPENING TROUGINESS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DRIVES A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. HOW MUCH THIS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES WILL AFFECT HOW UNSETTLED THE WEEKEND STAYS. THE GFS AGAIN IS A RATHER STRONG OUTLIER WHEREAS THE CMC AND ECWMF KEEP THE FRONT CLOSER ON SATURDAY FOR PERHAPS ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE FRONT DRIVEN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR LESS ACTIVE RADAR DAYS AND PERHAPS SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 00Z...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH AFTN SHRA/TSRA ON TUESDAY. VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 12 KTS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED TSRA MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ITS POSSIBLE THAT ANY OF THE THESE COULD AFFECT THE SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THUS POSSIBLY CREATING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF AND VFR WILL PERSIST WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. INLAND SITES COULD POTENTIALLY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED TEMPO ATTM. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 12 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ALONG THE COAST. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10:15 PM MONDAY...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING ACROSS AMZ256 FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: HAVE RAISED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES AS SEAS HAVE PICKED UP INTO THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE...WITH S TO SW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. WINDS AT THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE ARE FOUND CLOSEST TO THE COAST DUE TO A STRONG SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL BE STRONGER TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND 15-20 ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. FOR WEDNESDAY...SPEEDS DIMINISH MARKEDLY TO TEN KNOTS OR LESS. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE TOO MUCH OF A DECREASE AND SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS MAY WANT TO INCREASE THE SPEEDS. SWAN WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS 3-5 FEET FOR SEAS TUESDAY ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AND 1-3 FEET WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY`S SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT ON ACCOUNT OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH KEEPING THE GRADIENT FAIRLY RELAXED. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY BRINGING CONSIDERABLE VEERING ESPECIALLY OVER NRN ZONES WHILE WIND SPEEDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA BY SATURDAY MEANING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CAPPED AT 10 KTS...NO SURGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY MORE TYPICAL OF THE COOL SEASON. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO AT MOST 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SGL MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB/SHK

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.