Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 191901 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 301 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure offshore will extend inland, helping to maintain fair and very warm conditions. Thunderstorms will begin to increase early next week ahead of a cold front from the west. Next week will become a bit more unsettled as a series of low pressure systems cross the Eastern Seaboard. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 3 PM Friday...A fair overnight period to prevail with mild temperatures ahead of a weak cold front from to the north. Winds off the surface SW 20-25 KT coupled with a thin saturated layer may instigate patches and banks of stratus overnight, and light mist inland. No precipitation was inserted until the very end of the day Saturday as a cold front from the north dips across the corner of SE NC. This front will move into an area of dry air aloft so only a slight chance was maintained for late on Saturday. Amplification of the upper ridge over the area will bring a very warm to hot day Saturday, with low 90s inland and upper 80s closer to the coast, and middle 80s ICW to the beaches. Gusts to 25 mph can be expected at the beaches in the afternoon on Saturday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 3 PM Friday...Backdoor cold front stalled just north of the area Sat evening may have some isolated showers or thunderstorms along it which could expand south across norther portions of the forecast area. Better chances develop on Sun as mid level ridge weakens considerably and deep southwest flow starts spreading moisture over the region. Dynamical forcing, associated with a cold front and mid level trough pushing east, may just be able to reach the forecast area as the period ends. However, surface heating and convergence along the sea breeze will be able to generate some convection diurnal convection. As previously mentioned the more widespread coverage west of the area Sun, associated with the cold front, may reach western parts of the forecast area late in the period. Instability will be limited but convergence along the front is enough to warrant at least a late Sun night chc pop across the west for now. Temperatures will run 5 to 10 degrees above climo with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 3 PM Friday...Pattern turns rather unsettled for most of the period, though a few timing issues may still need some resolution in future forecasts. Monday should be an active day of showers and thunderstorms with ample prefrontal moisture in place. The pattern aloft will not be amplified locally but a few healthy shortwaves do appear to coincide with FROPA. After a possible brief respite on Tuesday deep upper troughiness amplifies over the Great Lakes. This will return the front and its associated moisture, possibly bolstered with Gulf moisture. The speed with which this occurs is not well agreed upon between various models. This moisture may encroach as early as Tuesday but Wednesday is appearing more likely. The upper trough and surface cold front drive through decidedly later Wednesday and wind fields may be strong enough to support a small severe weather threat. Cool and dry air advection appear slated for Thursday and Friday.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 18Z Friday...Any diurnal cumulus will dissipate AFT 23z. Too much dry air and subsidence aloft will prevent any vertical development this afternoon and thus no precipitation. S-SSW gusts to 20 KT coastal terminals until 22Z. Mainly clear overnight with FEW-SCT008 possible at KLBT between 10z-13z. SW winds Saturday 4-9 KT with VFR conditions through the TAF cycle. Extended Outlook...Reduced flight categories will be possible in any showers and thunderstorms that develop on Monday into Tuesday. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 PM Friday...Very little change on the 0-20 NM waters as a summer-like pattern prevails, and Bermuda high pressure holds offshore. SW winds 10-15 KT with gusts to 20 KT inshore as a robust sea breeze circulation develops into peak heating and persisting until very early evening. It is possible a few showers or storms could move off the coast from Surf City to Figure Eight Island late in the day along and near a weak cold front from the north. The sea spectrum will be a mix of SSW waves 1-1.5 feet every 5-6 seconds, and SE waves 1-2 feet every 8 seconds tonight and Saturday. Near shore sea surface temps are in the middle 70s presently. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Friday...Southerly flow continues with area under the influence of the Bermuda High. Speeds 10 kt or less Sat night increase to 10 to 15 kt Sun as part of the diurnal cycle. Sea breeze will result in enhanced onshore flow along the coast in the afternoon and evening. Gradient becomes more defined Sun night as cold front west of the region gradually approaches. Speeds remain in the 10 to 15 kt range Sun night with wind direction becoming more southwest. Seas will run 2 ft Sat night into Sun with a gradual increase to 2 to 3 ft late Sun and eventually 3 ft Sun night. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 PM Friday...An approaching cold front will keep the wind out of the southwest on Monday. There may be a small uptick in wind speed and offshore wave heights with the approach of the boundary. Its passage will lead to a sharp veer Monday night but also decreasing wind speeds as the high that builds in behind it is rather weak. Flow turns back to the SW by Wednesday with the approach of the next cold front. This second boundary will be stronger at the surface and also accompanied by stronger wind fields aloft. Conditions may worsen to Advisory levels.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MJC

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