Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 241951 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 251 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS HELPING TO BRING TEMPS UP INTO THE MID 70S MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS CONTINUED TO COVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOCATED OVER INLAND AREAS. THERE WAS A VERY SHARP GRADIENT OF CLOUD TO NO CLOUD COVER JUST BEYOND OUR CWA. MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DRY AIR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND DECENT CAP WITH LAPSE RATES NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD WILL KEEP STRONGER CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED IF AT ALL. LLJ UP TO 45 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVERALL. EXPECT ONLY A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH HEAVIER RAIN OR LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVE. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE COLUMN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH SHWRS MOVING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A SW STORM MOTION UP TO 40S KTS. COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST CONVERGENCE WILL ALIGN ITSELF WITH AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT HEADING TOWARD THE COAST BY MORNING. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING WELL WEST OF LOCAL AREA BUT MODELS DO SHOW SOME ENHANCED LIFT ALIGNED FROM SW TO NE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL INCREASE COVERAGE AND POPS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH WINDS JUST BEGINNING TO VEER AROUND TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK IN WESTERN ZONES. DO NOT EXPECT CAA TO AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND THEREFORE TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS BETWEEN 55 AND 60 MOST PLACES BY DAYBREAK.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON... AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING LATE IN THE DAY. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME...THUNDER IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. AFTER MINS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 SATURDAY NIGHT...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN THERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. CEILINGS MAY ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. BAND OF SHOWERS INLAND EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...DISSIPATING A BIT THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA REACHING CLOSE TO THE COAST BY MORNING. WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST REACHING LBT AND FLO JUST AROUND 12Z AND THE COASTAL SITES BY LATE MORNING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EAST REACHING CLOSE TO THE COAST BY DAYBREAK TUES MORNING. MODERATE S-SW FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 8 FT RANGE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. WNA SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KTS AS THEY BEGIN TO SLOWLY VEER AROUND AS FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST HEADING INTO TUES MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FT BY MORNING. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SCA CONDITIONS WITH W-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT EXCEPT A FEW 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE EARLY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TUESDAY NIGHT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY. SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT TUESDAY EVENING WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT DURING WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT EXCEPT FOR 5 FOOTERS INVOF FRYING PAN SHOALS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...RAN LONG TERM...RAN AVIATION...DL

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