Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 221912 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 312 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonably cool weather continues Sunday followed by a brief warm- up Monday. A reinforcing shot of dry and cool air Monday night will set the stage for dry weather and seasonable temperatures for much of the upcoming week. A low pressure system will approach the area late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 3 PM Saturday...Low level jetting and surface pressure gradient continue to relax and the breeziness seen across the area due to deep mixing will abate close to sunset. Clear skies and light (but not calm) winds will allow places to radiate into the lower 40s according to tightly clustered MOS guidance numbers. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Saturday...Although tomorrow will only be a few degrees milder than today it will feel moreso due to the lack of today`s gusty breezes. The center of the surface ridge ends up to our south by evening at which time we will see a light S to SW wind. Boundary layer temperatures will be recovering so Sunday night lows will be in the mid to upper 40s despite the continued light winds and clear sky. Warm advection strengthens on Monday ahead of a cold front and afternoon temps should shoot nicely into the upper 70s. This moisture-starved boundary comes through Monday evening. The gusto of its cold advection will not match that of the previous cold front keeping Monday night`s lows seasonable. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 PM Saturday...Surface high building in from the north at the start of the period will gradually shift east during the week. Cool northeast flow at the surface Tue and Wed will veer to southeast Thu as the ridge axis moves off the coast. At this point the forecast becomes less clear due to uncertainty with respect to the evolution of the upper pattern. Early in the week 5h trough lifts northeast and weak ridge builds east. Period of ridging is short lived and by Thu afternoon/evening the 5h shortwave ridge will be replaced by troughing associated with 5h shortwave crossing the Great Lake/OH Valley regions. The uncertainty during the second half of the period stems from the strength of the 5h trough Thu/Fri. Both GFS/ECMWF solutions drive a cold front into the area late Thu night or Fri but the amount of forcing and moisture differs. GFS is less amplified and drier while the ECMWF is showing more amplification of the 5h trough and increased moisture as well as much better precip chances. Compromise between the 2 solutions matches up well with the inherited forecast as well as the offerings from WPC so for now will continue to carry slight chc to low chc pop Late Thu and Fri with drier and slightly cooler conditions for Sat. However, temps Sat would still be above normal as both solutions lack strong cold advection. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 18Z...High confidence in VFR through the valid TAF period. Expect NW winds of 10 to 15 KT with higher gusts to drop to around 5 kt after sunset. Extended Outlook...VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 PM Saturday...Advisories to drop out during the near term as winds and seas abate. This trend should be less pronounced over the water compared to land as weak low level jetting reforms over north-central NC and the chilly airmass flowing atop the warmer water tries to grab some of that momentum. The offshore flow has really beaten the bigger waves out to sea as even 41013 has already fallen just below 5 ft, albeit a choppy 5.5 sec dominant period. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Saturday...Wind and seas subside a bit early Sunday as the ridge axis moves across but then picks up later in the day. At this time no advisories or even cautionary headlines appear necessary. Monday brings back a diminishing trend as the surface trough associated with a cold front becomes rather diffuse, weakening the gradient. FROPA will bring a sharp veer to N or NNE but not a significant surge, again precluding any headlines. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 3 PM Saturday...Pinched gradient Tue morning in the wake of the exiting cold front will keep northeast flow 15 to 20 kt into Wed. Gradient slowly relaxes and by Wed northwest winds will be 10 to 15 kt. Surface ridge axis shifts off the coast Thu with winds veering to southeast. Gradient remains light with speeds staying around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft Tue and Wed drop to 2 to 3 ft Thu. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ254- 256. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250- 252. && $$ NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...III AVIATION...RAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.