Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 280809 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 409 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaching from the west will stall through mid- week before moving across the area Thursday into Friday. Dry high pressure will build into the area by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 330 AM Wednesday...Todays highlight will be the potential for thunderstorms to reach strong to possibly isolated severe status from midday thru well into this evening. Highlighted this possibility in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Instability across the area has been lacking the past few days which that will change. The expansive closed upper low will cut off and drop from the southern Great Lakes to the central Appalachians by early Thu. Flow aloft will become cyclonic with unidirectional SW winds with increasing speeds with height. Closer to the coast, low level winds will be more southerly. PWs increase to around 1.75 inches along with an influx of widespread upper 60s to low 70s sfc dewpoints, further enabling instability. POPs will peak at 50 percent over land today into this evening, and again during the pre-dawn hrs across the eastern FA and adjacent local Atlantic Waters. Embedded mid-level s/w trofs rotating thru will partially affect the fa, mainly later tonight as they move from the Gulf of Mexico today to partially across the eastern portions of the FA late tonight. For max/min temps, once again above climo norms from 1 to possibly 2 categories above the norm, especially night time lows.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...A large upper low will continue to evolve across the Midwest and Ohio valley Wednesday through Thursday as it slowly meanders toward the south-southeast. This feature will gradually push a cold front across the area late Thursday. Given how amplified the pattern is aloft would not be surprised if the frontal passage is delayed a little further. Thus the forecast area will remain in the warmer sector through most of the short term period and the chance for showers and thunderstorms will persist as well. An impulse is shown to wrap around the upper low, likely passing to our northwest during Thursday. SPC continues to highlight central NC with a Marginal Risk of severe tstms. Part of this risk area includes as portion of the Lumberton area and northern parts of the Pee Dee. The highest precipitable water values remain off the coast through Thursday with much lower values beginning to filter in from the west Thursday night. As mentioned earlier, the timing is suspect given the orientation of the front to the flow aloft. A blend of MAV/MET numbers appears reasonable each day and night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 AM Tuesday...Despite the fact that the long term begins with an impressively large cutoff to our west the weather will be pretty quiet. The reason for this is that we will be in the dry slot of the occluded surface low to our NW and the deep moisture will be off the coast. Sunday and Monday as the weakening front pushes through some of this moisture may get drawn back to the coast for some minor rain chances-all while temperatures remain close to their seasonable norms. The front washes out by Monday leaving behind a weak surface pattern while mid level heights build. There will still be no real forcing for precipitation and no low level thermal advection to change temperatures much from the values earlier in the period. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 06Z...Light and variable winds setting up though inland terminals may see a light southerly breeze through the night. Even so, some MVFR fog possible just about anywhere with plentiful low level moisture but mid level cloud deck should prevent any further reduction in flight category. After sunrise VFR expected and any shower or thunderstorm activity too isolated to warrant anything other than VC save for maybe LBT where coverage could wind up a bit higher. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Scattered SHRA/TSRA through Thursday. A cold frontal passage late Wednesday into Thursday. Primarily VFR expected Friday through Sunday. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM Wednesday...Sfc pressure pattern and gradient will begin to reflect the input from the upper closed to cutoff low dropping to the Central Appalachians by late tonight. Southerly winds at 5 to 10 kt today will become SW 10 to 15 kt tonight. This reflection of the sfc cold front still hung up across the western portions of the Carolinas. Significant seas will run 2 to 4 ft, with the majority of the seas comprised by a 1 to 3 foot ese ground swell at 11 second periods. The 4 footers will primarily affect the waters from Cape Fear northward. Instability has been questionable across the FA the past few days. However, this will change. In addition, an embedded midlevel s/w trof will push from the Gulf of Mexico today, NE and across the area waters later tonight. Expect convection to be more isolated to widely scattered today becoming scattered to areas of pcpn later tonight. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...The flow will eventually become southeasterly during Wednesday in response to a slow moving cold front approaching from the west. Additional veering to the southwest with an increase in speed is expected by Thursday evening just ahead of the cold front. Seas will be 3 ft or less Wednesday through Thursday morning, then possibly 3-4 ft by Thursday evening. LONG TERM/SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 AM Tuesday...A weakening cold front running parallel to the coast will only slightly shift through the period moving from just onshore to just offshore. It`s parent surface cyclone will be well occluded and thus deprived of its energy source and so the whole system will feature a baggy and poorly defined pressure pattern. This is good news for most mariners though as winds will be quite light and somewhat variable through the period. Seas will be slightly elevated above what such slack winds would otherwise support since spectral wave bulletins show a myriad of wave elements.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM... AVIATION...MBB MARINE...

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