Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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181 FXUS62 KILM 140802 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 302 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Seasonable weather will return today and last through the weekend with only a brief cool down on Saturday. Low pressure approaching from the Gulf will bring an increasing chance of rain, and a warming trend through early next week. A cold front will push through the area by mid week with drier weather to follow.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Thursday...Stiff SW winds have brought temps up about 10 degrees overnight in WAA ahead of yet another clipper low getting pushed along by shortwave riding through broad trough over the eastern CONUS. Guidance has not captured this much of quick rise with most temps 35 to 40 inland and up to 45 along the coast. The shortwave will move off the coast later this morning leaving a more westerly flow across the area. This deep westerly flow will help temps rise up near 60 degrees for high temps this aftn and will maintain dry weather across the area. High pressure will build down behind cold front through tonight with a light northerly flow reaching down into the Carolinas. Models show a rise in 850 temps through early today leveling off and then falling a few degrees in the more northerly flow through tonight. As winds drop off tonight, expect better radiational cooling conditions with only a few clouds expected. This will produce a cool night with temps dropping into the mid 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Thursday...Some changes in the longwave pattern aloft this period, with the question of whether it becomes established for a time. The large amplitude upper trough affecting the FA at the start of this week, has mellowed out by the time this period commences. Models indicate active northern and southern branches of the jet stream that will meet overhead across the FA at the start of this period but then models have the northern stream retreat back to the Mid-Atlantic states and the NE States by the end of this period. This leaves the southern branch of the jetstream to expand northward. At the sfc, models indicate a stalled front well south and east of the FA at the start of this period. A s/w mid-level flow tracking east-southeast will develop a sfc low just off the Carolina Coasts early Fri along with it`s associated frontal system. The sfc low will accelerate northeast away from the FA Fri aftn and night. Progged Sounding moisture profiles indicate some mid and upper level moisture however, the low levels remain dry. As a result, will continue with no pcpn. In it`s wake, clearing skies with CAA occurring across the FA thru early Sat before becoming Neutral. This will just re- enforce the cold air across the FA from the recent CFP prior to this period. Thus, temperatures for both days will near the seasonable norms for this time period with mins at or just below the norms and the maxes at or just above the norms.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 330 PM Wednesday...Expect a warming trend into early next week, as ridging aloft ensues. GFS and ECMWF differ on timing and strength of ejected Baja short-wave Sunday, but both agree on a milder and wetter pattern after the weekend. The first chance of rain by Sunday night, as this features ejects offshore early Monday. Despite ECMWF/GFS differences even into Tuesday, it seems we can infer a mild pattern prevailing and rain chances ahead of an upper trough, that in both models appears along the east coast next Wednesday.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 06z...A stiff southwest wind will continue overnight into Thursday. Have included some gusts in coastal terminals and tempo gusts inland. Although dewpoint temps have been increasing overnight, air mass remains dry overall. Only some passing mid to high clouds expected through the period with VFR conditions. Winds will veer to the west through today and further to the north tonight as another system passes by to the north and high pressure builds in from the north behind it. Extended Outlook...VFR. Possible MVFR Sun night into Monday associated with low pressure system moving across the Southeast. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday...Stiff SW winds 20 to 25 kts with higher gusts have brought seas up to Small Craft Advisory thresholds with sea heights up to 4 to 7 ft across the local waters. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect until noon today. This tightened gradient flow ahead of a weak cold front will diminish this afternoon to 10 to 15 kts as winds veering around to the west. As high pressure builds down behind the front tonight, winds will veer further to the N-NW. Seas will subside in this weakening off shore flow down to 2 to 4 ft by late this afternoon and will continue to gradually decreasing through tonight. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday...Friday thru Friday night will be the more active time period for winds and significant seas due to sfc low development just offshore that deepens as it accelerates northeast away from the local waters Fri night. Looking at SW-W winds increasing during Fri to SCEC levels, then veering to the NW-NNW at SCEC levels Fri night as the sfc low accelerates away. For Sat thru Sat night, no caution or advisories expected. Winds will drop to 10 kt or less during Sat aftn and to around 5 kt Sat night as the center of sfc high pressure moves overhead. Significant seas will maximize at 3 to 5 ft Fri aftn and evening followed by a subsiding trend for the remainder of this period to less than 2 ft. Wind driven waves will dominate Fri thru daytime Sat with periods at 4 to 5 seconds. An easterly 1 foot ground swell at 9 to 10 second periods will dominate toward the end of this period as wind induced waves subside. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM Wednesday...A manageable marine period. No advisories are expected as weak high pressure moves farther offshore on Sunday. SW-W winds expected Monday as high pressure settles offshore and SE of the waters.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ250-252-254- 256.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...RGZ

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