Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 271934 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 334 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING TUESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...MCV FEATURE WHICH TRACKED EAST ACROSS SE NC EARLIER TODAY LAID OUT A WRINKLE IN THE FABRIC OF HOURLY TEMPS AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THEMSELVES THIS AFTERNOON...JEOPARDIZING VERIFICATION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY. MANY DEEP INTERIOR LOCATIONS ARE REBOUNDING WITH THE HEAT SWITCH FLIPPED TO THE "ON" POSITION UNDER FULL SUN AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE DECAYING/DEPARTING WAVE ALOFT...BUT IT APPEARS MANY LOCALS WILL CLEARLY FALL SHORT OF 105 DEG MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURE DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY INLAND WHICH DIMINISHED BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. LINGERING WARMTH AND MARITIME HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR BALMY NIGHT TIME CONDITIONS AND AM EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE SEA/ICW TO REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES EVEN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN PAINTED TO REFLECT THIS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO AVOID IMPACTING CAPE FEAR INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 20C RANGE...GIVING ANOTHER DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...FROM FLORENCE TO MARION TO HORRY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 105F. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-104F RANGE. TSTM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 18Z AS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MULTICELLS WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS WOULD BE UPSTREAM DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE RATE OF SFC HEATING EARLIER IN THE DAY...AS WELL AS A LACK OF WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. FORECAST DCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND HEALTHY CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE BEST WINDOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 18-00Z. EXPECT TSTMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING THE DAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WILL STALL THROUGH THE WEEK AS ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS EVIDENCED BY PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH NE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WILL LIMIT POP COVERAGE AND EXPECT A DRY WEEK. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED SHOWERS THU/FRI...BUT TIMING THESE ON D5/D6 IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...AND WITH THE COLUMN REMAINING DRY WILL OPT TO KEEP FORECAST POP AT SILENT. BY THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND WESTWARD...FORCING THE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE. WHILE THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AND WILL RAMP POP UP TO CHC FOR THE WKND AS THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES BACK TOWARDS THE COAST. ALL 3 OF THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS...GFS/ECM/CMC...SUGGEST LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND FURTHER ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT HIGHER POP IN THE FORECAST FOR D7...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 18Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF FOG. VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW SPARSELY-LOCATED LIGHT SHOWERS. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KTS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR DUE TO FOG INLAND TOWARDS DAYBREAK..ESPECIALLY INLAND. HOWEVER...INCREASED WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY INHIBIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING THE RISK OF STRONG STORMS JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO STIFF SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE MONDAY...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS WILL PREVAIL...PROMPTING THE CAUTION STATEMENT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL FEATURE SSW WAVES 2-4 FEET EVERY 4-6 SECONDS...AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FR EVERY 9 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FAVORED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AS SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT... BECOMING 4-6 FT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER PORTIONS OF AMZ250/252 BY MONDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO RAISE IT TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NORTH AROUND 10 KTS BY TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIMITED NORTHERLY FETCH...BECOMING 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY UNIFORM WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS LEAVES E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS WITHIN A FEW KTS OF 10 BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS OF 2-3 FT EACH DAY WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY FROM AN EASTERLY 4 SEC WIND CHOP.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-053-055. HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ032-033-039- 053>056. NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099- 109. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...BJR LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MJC/SGL MARINE...MJC/JDW/BJR

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