Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 282230 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 626 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...DRIER DESCENDING AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO CAP SURFACE-BASED AIR PARCEL CLIMBS. ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR WHERE HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON. A BAND OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LANDWARD MIGRATING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL CURTAIL CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC. ISOLATED ACTIVITY HOWEVER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR INLAND SE NC NEAR I-95 AND ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL HEATING IS OCCURRING PRIOR TO BETTER MID-LVL DRYING. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BE SHOWERS ONLY IF NOT JUST MODERATE CUMULUS. GREATER COVERAGE WILL REMAIN N AND W OF OUR AREA INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED WELL INLAND...POSSIBLY TOUCHING MARLBORO OR DARLINGTON COUNTY. LOWER DEWPOINTS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG INTO THE PRE-DAWN OF FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUMS WILL RESULT AS WELL...DIPPING TO 63-66 INLAND...64-68 CLOSER TO THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTS OFFSHORE. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH COOLER VALUES NEARER THE BEACHES. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS DOWN OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CUTS OFF MON INTO TUES WHILE NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST MODELS LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND IT. AT THE SAME TIME ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MIGRATE EAST ALLOWING FLOW THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO OUR WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND BE MORE ISOLATED WITH FOCUS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH AND FRONT EVEN FARTHER WEST BUT BY MON INTO TUES THE FRONT WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO THE EAST AND THEN WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH TUES INTO WED WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MON MAY BE MORE ACTIVE INLAND AND NORTH ...FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST BY WED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BY WED INTO THURS THE FRONT SHOULD DROP SLOWLY SOUTH WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CLEARING OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN GREATER CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL OR HYBRID TYPE WAVE/LOW MAY INTERACT WITH LINGERING FRONT OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOST CONVECTION AT BAY. SOME CONVECTION THIS EVENING MIGHT MAKE IT INTO MARLBORO COUNTY BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. ALL CONVECTION SHOULD END AROUND 01Z. LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES...HOWEVER THE INLAND TERMINALS MAY SEE SOME BRIEF FOR TOWARD MORNING. IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT IT WILL LIKELY LAST AN HOUR OR LESS. BECOMING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE WIND AND ESE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7-8 SECONDS. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MAY DOT THE WATERS...BUT ANY ENCROACHMENT OVER THE 0-20NM WATERS FROM THE EAST WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEAK E-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FEET OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 4 FOOTERS ON TAP AT 20 NM BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PULL BACK TO THE EAST AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SE-SE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS FRONT GETS STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT HEADS SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE SEAS UNTIL END OF PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT AS LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL TRANSLATES INTO A SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY WIND CHOP. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...31 LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...43

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