Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 231450 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 950 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COASTAL FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATER TODAY ALLOWING FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG ONLY THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IT WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A FEW SHOWERS. RAIN CHANCES AND EXPECTED AMOUNTS GO UP ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB. SUNSHINE AND FAIRLY SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS ON CHRISTMAS AND SHOULD LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...THE CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH THE COASTAL FRONT STILL OFF THE COAST. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS AT FRYING PAN SHOALS AND 41037 ARE SHOWING WIND VEERING 30 DEGREES TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. THIS MAY BE THE FIRST SIGNS OF THE COASTAL FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. UNTIL THE WARM FRONT MAKES IT TO THE COAST LATER TONIGHT...THE CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE SAME. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT TO ABOVE A MILE CLOSER TO NOON. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR IS SHOWING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN GEORGIA MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS CONVECTION APPROACHING THE FORECAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...A WARM AND WET WEDNESDAY IS ON TAP. A DEEP AND POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BE DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL AVE A DEEP LAYER OF SOUTHERLY FLOW MAKING FOR COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE. IN FACT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING TO 1.8 INCHES OR MORE THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING 100-300 J/KG OF CAPE SO SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE...AND AREAS WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS SINCE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FORCING STAYS TO OUR WEST. RAIN SHOULD LAST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WITH DIMINISHING INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR COOL AND DRY ADVECTION ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THE MORNING MAY BE A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE BUT DEEP LAYER WINDS RELAX AS THE DAY WEARS ON FOR A SUNNY AND SEASONABLE AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT BREEZE SHOULD SIMILARLY LEAD TO A SEASONABLE THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POKES UP A BIT FROM THE BAHAMAS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AND GUIDANCE EVEN TRENDING UP IN TEMPERATURE A BIT ABOVE CLIMO. FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED ACCORDINGLY BUT NOT QUITE AS MILD AS SOME OF THE MOS STRINGS. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST IT WILL GROW CONSIDERABLY IN SIZE. MOISTURE RETURN UNDERWAY BY SUNDAY IN RETURN FLOW REGIME AIDED BY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD FAIRLY GRADUALLY AT FIRST AND THEN MORESO HEADING INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 12Z...WEDGE IN PLACE WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO WAVE NORTH. THE NAM IS A BIT SLOWER AND THE PREFERRED MODEL...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR STEADY RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. NO CONVECTION YET...BUT TEMPS SHOULD RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT SHOWERS/MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS AND VFR THU BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...THE COASTAL FRONT STILL IS JUST EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BUT VEERING WINDS AT FRYING PAN SHOALS IS HINTING THE COASTAL FRONT MAY BE ON A SLOW MOVE TOWARD THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. SEAS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS. ONCE THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES INLAND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY...THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BIG STORY FOR MARINERS WILL BE FOG. THERE IS SOME FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING WITH VSBYS AROUND A MILE. AS THE COASTAL FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE THIS EVENING AND SPREADS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE COLD OCEAN WATERS...LOOK FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP WITH VSBYS POTENTIALLY DROPPING DOWN TO A QUARTER-MILE OR LESS. OUR DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRES NOW AT NOON...BUT ANOTHER ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME RATHER HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND AND SEAS. ADDITIONALLY, DEWPOINTS MAY STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR SOME SEA FOG. EVEN IF NOT THERE WILL BE AREAS OF RAINFALL TO LEAD TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS A SHARP VEER IN WINDS AND WAVE FACES WILL STEEPEN BUT THE SEA FOG SHOULD BE ROUTED OUT BY THE DROPPING DEWPOINTS. THE GRADIENT WILL EASE AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH THE LARGER SEAS FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE ADVISORY SHOULD DROP OUT AT SOME POINT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ITS TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER OR NOT A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE SHORT TERM THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO OFFER VERY BENIGN MARINE WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN GRADUALLY FROM THE WEST THE ENTIRE TIME. ON FRIDAY THIS MEANS A LIGHT N TO NE WIND AND DIMINUTIVE SEAS. LATE FRIDAY THE WIND WILL START VEERING...A PROCESS THAT MAY LAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH FINDS A CENTER OFFSHORE AND THE ENTIRE RIDGE EXPANDS IN SIZE. SEAS REMAIN UNCHANGED AND MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO EXCEED 2 FT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ107. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...HAWKINS SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DL

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