Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS62 KILM 212234
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
635 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016
A cold front will move offshore by Monday morning bringing cooler
and noticeably drier air into the Carolinas. This air mass will
prevail in the upcoming week as high pressure extends along the
East Coast. A return to seasonable warmth and humidity will begin
late week into next weekend but thunderstorm chances will remain
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Convection has yet to fire and is seemingly becoming a
long shot for the afternoon and evening hours. For the extreme near
term I will continue to trend downward with pops. As for the
overnight hours there is some decent agreement on some convection
maintaining itself along a cold front passing through the area. This
is the long advertised front that will slowly usher in a cooler and
significantly drier airmass. Will maintain the slight chance pops
but narrow down the window to just a couple of hours between 00 and
02 UTC. Overnight lows in the middle to lower 70s look good.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...The potent mid level trough readily apparent in the
latest water vapor imagery will swing across early Monday with a
westerly flow ensuing at the mid levels. The flow will buckle some
through the period with the main feature being a ridge across the
midwest. This will drive cool and dry high pressure into the area at
the surface. This is a common pattern for our area in the waning
days of summer and fall and the first iteration this season is a
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Sunny and seasonable on Wed with high pressure
well off to our northeast but still extending ridge axis deep into
the Southeastern U.S. The ridge axis maintains position but weakens
considerably on Thursday, which should lead to another seasonable
day. Nighttime lows will creep up a bit due to some moisture
entering the boundary layer. The remainder of the period will
feature a return of late summer heat (late summer, i.e. not of the
magnitude experienced in parts of July) as the high breaks down but
ridging aloft holds. The latter should cap all but very isolated
diurnal convection as will the fact that we never get into much low
level return flow.
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 00Z...A cold front will move through the region during the
overnight hours. There will be some pre-frontal convection, however
most of it will die out before reaching our western terminals. LBT
stands the best chance, but only a vcsh mention. Winds will shift to
the northwest after frontal passage, with northerly winds by
daybreak, with some gusts around mid morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...A southwest flow of 10-15 knots will continue
through this evening. A cold front will slowly cross the waters by
early Monday morning and winds will shift quickly to the northwest
then north. Any cold air advection with this feature will be delayed
somewhat and speeds should remain in a 10-15 knot range. Significant
seas will remain 1-3 feet.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Winds will briefly become almost light and
variable across the waters Monday before surface high pressure
becomes better defined late Monday and persists into Wednesday. Wind
speeds will be ten knots or less most of Monday with a synoptic
direction of northeast before increasing to the higher end of a 10-
15 knot range early Tuesday. The initial surge could see a few hours
of speeds just above this range especially across the outer waters.
Seas will increase a bit for Tuesday mainly with the range
increasing to 2-4 feet.
LONG TERM/WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...A somewhat rare NE wind on Wednesday as high
pressure well to our northeast extends a ridge axis into the
Carolinas. Wave guidance is showing the NE wind waves and an ESE
swell combining for a general 2 to 4 ft. Wind remains NE on Thursday
but weakens as the ridge axis does the same. By Friday the gradient
will become quite poorly defined as there may be a last vestige of
high offshore and a weak piedmont trough.
As of 300 AM Sunday...Wilmington is now only ONE day away from tying
the all-time record for the most consecutive days with low
temperatures 70 degrees or warmer. If we make it through midnight
eastern standard time (1 am Monday eastern daylight time) without
dropping below 70 we`ll tie the record. Assuming temperatures
remain above 70 through Monday evening we would establish a new
record for this statistic. Wilmington temperature records began in
Wilmington`s Consecutive Days with Low Temperatures 70+ degrees
#1 56 days 6/29/2012 to 8/23/2012
#2 55 days 6/27/2016 to 8/20/2016 <--still going
#3 52 days 6/22/1941 to 8/12/1941
#4 48 days 7/ 6/1986 to 8/22/1986
#5 46 days 6/28/1991 to 8/12/1991