Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 151930 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 330 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will continue through the next 7 days. A few showers are possible along the coast mainly north of Cape Fear on Sunday as Jose continues moving to the north well off the coast of southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. The impact of Jose for the area will be an increase of swells, dangerous surf, and a high rip current risk through the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 330 PM Friday...a quiet and pleasant evening in store as diurnal cumulus dissipates in the late afternoon through early evening. High pressure will build from the north overnight to bring northeast winds by daybreak Saturday. Prior to this some patchy fog may gain a slight foothold and this is accounted for in the forecast. Increasing SE swell this period from Jose is going to increase the hazard level of the surf-zone throughout the day Saturday. It will be a nice day but with increasingly strong rip currents, a moderate risk has been issued for all beaches for Saturday. With a flow off the Atlantic Saturday up to around 7000 feet, diurnal afternoon cumulus appears likely. Moisture however appears too shallow to include any mentionable chance of measurable rainfall. temperatures will run to slightly above normal for middle September.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 3 PM Friday...guidance is advertising a rather weak mid level pattern across the eastern U.S., not an unusual pattern for mid September. At the surface it will be quiet as well with weak high pressure in control outside of a few hours of possible lower pressures Sunday night as Jose passes off well to the east in the Atlantic. Guidance is also showing an outer "band" more on the synoptic scale than directly associated with Jose rotating westward as it gets pulled in this direction by a weak upper level low. I have maintained the slight chance pops for the extreme northeastern areas for Sunday but as usual dry air west of the system will be difficult to negotiate. Temperatures will be just a degree or two above climatology.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 330 PM Friday...A quiet and pleasant evening in store as diurnal cumulus dissipates in the late afternoon through early evening. High pressure will build from the north overnight to bring northeast winds by daybreak Saturday. Prior to this some patchy fog may gain a slight foothold and this is accounted for in the forecast. Increasing SE swell this period from Jose is going to increase the hazard level of the surf-zone throughout the day Saturday. It will be a nice day but with increasingly strong rip currents, a moderate risk has been issued for all beaches for Saturday. With a flow off the Atlantic Saturday up to around 7000 feet, diurnal afternoon cumulus appears likely. Moisture however appears too shallow to include any mentionable chance of measurable rainfall. temperatures will run near to slightly above normal for middle September.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1710Z...VFR conditions til 8Z, then 1/2-3SM in BR/FG forms beneath SKC and VRB sfc winds 3KT or less. Because of the morning fog and mist, some inland terminals may report BKN001/VV001 for a brief time prior to daybreak. Aft 12Z VFR conditions return through end of TAF cycle. Light surface winds overnight become NNE-NE 4-8 KT aft 14z Saturday. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions through the forecast period as Jose passes offshore of the coast. Gusty NE surface winds possible at coastal terminals Sunday through Monday as Jose passes east of the region. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM Friday...A Small Craft Advisory for hazardous Seas has been issued for building SE swell from Jose, with only light to moderate wind tonight and Saturday, and will run from noon Saturday through all of Sunday. 13 second SE swell will build through the weekend becoming E late Sunday with elevated seas remaining in place. The SCA will likely go beyond Monday. Long period waves will cause inlet turbulence during the outgoing tidal flows, and breaking of larger than normal waves near shallow areas and sand bars. Winds NE Saturday mainly 10-15 kt. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Friday...expect increasing northeasterly winds at least from the start of the period through about midday Sunday as the waters feel the effects of Jose well to the east. Initially speeds will be 10-15 knots on the lower end of the range then ramp up to 15- 20 by early Sunday morning. Speeds will decrease thereafter. Probably the bigger story will be the higher seas from swell components emanating from Jose. Seas will be some 5-8 feet with the possibility of a smaller area just northeast of 41013 reaching 8-10 feet for a few hours. Similar to the winds the higher seas will diminish somewhat late in the period. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 PM Friday..As Jose moves north and well to the east of the coastal waters the winds will be from the north at 15 to 20 knots north of Little River and 10 to 15 knots to the south. The winds will back to the northwest and west with time. Speeds will drop to 10 to 15 knots on Tuesday and 10 knots on Wednesday. Swells from Jose will be in full force on Monday with height 6 to 8 feet north of Little Rive and 5 to 7 feet to the south. With time the seas heights will diminish as Jose pulls to the north. Seas are expected to drop below 6 feet Monday night.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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As of 330 PM Friday...A `Coastal Flood Advisory` was needed for downtown Wilmington again with the late day high tide, this runs from 5pm-8pm and should only exceed minor flood stage by a quarter of a foot or so.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from noon Saturday to 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...HAWKINS AVIATION...MJC

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