Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 212234 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 635 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move offshore by Monday morning bringing cooler and noticeably drier air into the Carolinas. This air mass will prevail in the upcoming week as high pressure extends along the East Coast. A return to seasonable warmth and humidity will begin late week into next weekend but thunderstorm chances will remain minimal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 3 PM Sunday...Convection has yet to fire and is seemingly becoming a long shot for the afternoon and evening hours. For the extreme near term I will continue to trend downward with pops. As for the overnight hours there is some decent agreement on some convection maintaining itself along a cold front passing through the area. This is the long advertised front that will slowly usher in a cooler and significantly drier airmass. Will maintain the slight chance pops but narrow down the window to just a couple of hours between 00 and 02 UTC. Overnight lows in the middle to lower 70s look good. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Sunday...The potent mid level trough readily apparent in the latest water vapor imagery will swing across early Monday with a westerly flow ensuing at the mid levels. The flow will buckle some through the period with the main feature being a ridge across the midwest. This will drive cool and dry high pressure into the area at the surface. This is a common pattern for our area in the waning days of summer and fall and the first iteration this season is a welcome relief. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...Sunny and seasonable on Wed with high pressure well off to our northeast but still extending ridge axis deep into the Southeastern U.S. The ridge axis maintains position but weakens considerably on Thursday, which should lead to another seasonable day. Nighttime lows will creep up a bit due to some moisture entering the boundary layer. The remainder of the period will feature a return of late summer heat (late summer, i.e. not of the magnitude experienced in parts of July) as the high breaks down but ridging aloft holds. The latter should cap all but very isolated diurnal convection as will the fact that we never get into much low level return flow. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 00Z...A cold front will move through the region during the overnight hours. There will be some pre-frontal convection, however most of it will die out before reaching our western terminals. LBT stands the best chance, but only a vcsh mention. Winds will shift to the northwest after frontal passage, with northerly winds by daybreak, with some gusts around mid morning. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 3 PM Sunday...A southwest flow of 10-15 knots will continue through this evening. A cold front will slowly cross the waters by early Monday morning and winds will shift quickly to the northwest then north. Any cold air advection with this feature will be delayed somewhat and speeds should remain in a 10-15 knot range. Significant seas will remain 1-3 feet. SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Sunday...Winds will briefly become almost light and variable across the waters Monday before surface high pressure becomes better defined late Monday and persists into Wednesday. Wind speeds will be ten knots or less most of Monday with a synoptic direction of northeast before increasing to the higher end of a 10- 15 knot range early Tuesday. The initial surge could see a few hours of speeds just above this range especially across the outer waters. Seas will increase a bit for Tuesday mainly with the range increasing to 2-4 feet. LONG TERM/WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 3 PM Sunday...A somewhat rare NE wind on Wednesday as high pressure well to our northeast extends a ridge axis into the Carolinas. Wave guidance is showing the NE wind waves and an ESE swell combining for a general 2 to 4 ft. Wind remains NE on Thursday but weakens as the ridge axis does the same. By Friday the gradient will become quite poorly defined as there may be a last vestige of high offshore and a weak piedmont trough. && .CLIMATE... As of 300 AM Sunday...Wilmington is now only ONE day away from tying the all-time record for the most consecutive days with low temperatures 70 degrees or warmer. If we make it through midnight eastern standard time (1 am Monday eastern daylight time) without dropping below 70 we`ll tie the record. Assuming temperatures remain above 70 through Monday evening we would establish a new record for this statistic. Wilmington temperature records began in 1874. Wilmington`s Consecutive Days with Low Temperatures 70+ degrees #1 56 days 6/29/2012 to 8/23/2012 #2 55 days 6/27/2016 to 8/20/2016 <--still going #3 52 days 6/22/1941 to 8/12/1941 #4 48 days 7/ 6/1986 to 8/22/1986 #5 46 days 6/28/1991 to 8/12/1991 && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...43 CLIMATE...TRA

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