Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 261021 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 621 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A COOLDOWN. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP ON SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST FOR THE FEW DAYS THAT FOLLOW. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES WILL DEFLECT THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE WESTERLIES WELL NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS TODAY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST AND WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY. WITH FEWER CIRRUS CLOUDS THAN YESTERDAY AND ONLY ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A FEW FLAT CUMULUS INLAND TODAY...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST...VERY NEAR THE WARMER GFS MOS HIGHS. A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH 1500 FOOT WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 30-35 KT. THIS JET SHOULD HELP INDUCE ENOUGH TURBULENCE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION FROM BECOMING VERY DEEP. MY FORECAST LOWS ARE ON THE UPPER EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...61-66 FOR MOST AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES WILL TECHNICALLY REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IT WILL GET BEATEN DOWN BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST COAST...FEEDING HEAT AND MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM FLORIDA. WITH INLAND HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS...SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD REACH 1000 J/KG WEDNESDAY AND MAY APPROACH 1500 J/KG ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO IMPRESSIVE CUMULUS GROWTH AND SOME OF THE FIRST AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS OF THE YEAR. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONCENTRATE ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY BOTH DAYS AND ALSO AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD THURSDAY. FORECAST POPS ARE AROUND 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND 40 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT RECENT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING IT MAY SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOULD THIS OCCUR IT COULD LEAD AN ENHANCEMENT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. CONFIDENCE IN THE MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY IS LOWER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THAT ITS POSITION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...NONE OF WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED YET. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COOL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND TAKES ANY MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THOUGH AS THE MAIN COOL PUSH IS DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WAVE OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SECONDARY PUSH WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BACK BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK THROUGH TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW ITS PASSAGE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A VERY POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH HANGS UP TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A VORT- LADEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FOR SOME RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES PRESENTS A POTENTIAL FOG THREAT. HOWEVER WINDS AT JUST 1000 FEET AGL ARE NEAR 20 KT. THESE WINDS APPEAR TO BE ABLE TO TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE THUS EXPECT ENOUGH WIND/MIXING TO OCCUR TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION AS TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS CONTINUE TO NARROW TO 1-5 DEGREES THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT THAT MAY BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS. AFTER SUNRISE SW WINDS 5-10 KT EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS...WITH SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY MID-MORNING. WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE SW AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WHERE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE S AND INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS BY AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE. BY THIS AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD BE A 15-DEGREE MARINE-VERSUS-INLAND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE...LIKELY DEVELOPING A MODERATE STRENGTH SEABREEZE CIRCULATION WITH 15+ KNOT WIND SPEEDS NEARSHORE. THESE WINDS WILL NOT DIMINISH APPRECIABLY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET MAY LOCALLY BUILD TO 3 FEET IN SPOTS TONIGHT IN A COMBINATION OF ENE SWELL AND LOCAL SHORT PERIOD WIND CHOP. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG IT. MODELS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE EMPHATIC THAT THE FRONT MAY PUSH SOUTH INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS VERY UNCERTAIN...PARTICULARLY SINCE MOST MODELS PAINT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DAILY SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY LEAVING MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. A SECONDARY PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE COMES IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TURNING THE WINDS TO NORTHEAST. THE HIGH REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. LOCALLY THIS TURNS THE FLOW TO SOUTHEASTERLY OR EVEN SOUTHERLY. DURING ALL OF THESE DIRECTIONAL CHANGES WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SO WHILE WAVE PERIODS MAY BE UNPLEASANTLY SHORT AND CHOPPY THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OVERALL BUILDING OF DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHTS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ109. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR

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