Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 280555 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 155 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ISOLATED COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1042 PM WEDNESDAY...THE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WHERE THE PRECIPITATION FELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OTHERWISE A QUITE NIGHT IN STORE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 AT THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY HOWEVER WOULD EXPECT THURSDAY TO HAVE BETTER COVERAGE COMPARED TO FRI AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. EACH DAY THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FARTHER INLAND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY/NIGHT ARE SPOT ON TO CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THE SEA BREEZE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT AND ERODE HEADING INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS ON SHORE FETCH OF MOIST AIR WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH AND WILL ADVECT SOME INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE DISTANT ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ADD TO OVERALL PCP WATER LEVELS BUT THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION PROVIDING A LID ON GROWTH POTENTIAL OF ANY SHWRS THAT DEVELOP WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. AS RIDGE BUILDS H5 HEIGHT RISES WILL ADD TO VERY WARM TEMPS WITH 850 TEMPS REACHING NEAR 17C OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH MID 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND. THE ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS INTO THE 60S WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSE TO THE COAST. OVERALL EXPECT A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY FOCUSED ALONG ANY LOCALIZED AREAS OF CONVERGENCE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY AND LAND BREEZE AT NIGHT....AS WELL AS PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHC OF STRONGER OR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIP EAST AND SLOWLY ERODE IN THE UPPER LEVELS HEADING INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. WILL SEE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AROUND LOW WHICH TRIES TO CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/POTENTIALLY IFR OVERNIGHT... MAINLY FROM FOG AND ACROSS INLAND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD WITH VCNTY THUNDER ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING. AS VFR PREVAILS...MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE INLAND...LEAVING THIN HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING. EXPECT AREAS OF GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL. AN HOUR OR 2 AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY LINGERING FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS. COULD SEE CU DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING ALL AREAS...AND FURTHER DEVELOP TO POSSIBLE AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BE PROTECTED FROM MARINE INFLUENCES AND THE UPPER RIDGING...THUS DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION. AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY LEAVING DISSIPATING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THRU 06Z. WINDS WILL START OUT FROM SSE-SSW AT 4 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT INLAND WHERE CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT. AFTER DAYBREAK... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS. AN ACTIVE RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INLAND THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. IN ITS WAKE WINDS WILL BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT AT THE COAST...SE AROUND 10 KT ELSEWHERE. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DROP BACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH BY 06Z. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1042 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COAST WATERS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING AT 3 FEET. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. NO CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE COAST WATERS OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST TOWARD OUR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH DAY. OVERALL WINDS SPEEDS WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH... HOWEVER THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS INTO THE 3-4 FT RANGE ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 7-9 SEC RANGE WITH SOME CHOP ON TOP. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK GRADIENT OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP DUE TO SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC PERIODS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SRP NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DCH/SGL

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