Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 291312 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 912 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Rain will stay in the area through Tuesday until the tropical system makes its slow departure. Moisture will hang around for most of the week so while sunshine should return in part there will still be a scattering of storms each day. A cold front will approach next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 910 AM Sunday...Tropical Storm Bonnie has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression. All warnings have been dropped and other products revised as necessary. Wind is no longer considered a threat and area obs show top surface readings in the 10 to 15 kt range. However, heavy rain is still a threat for today and tonight as TD Bonnie makes its slow trek northeast along the Carolina coastlines. In addition, SPC has dropped the tornado threat from our area. High precipitable water values, around 2 inches in deep east to southeast flow will continue to necessitate high pops. The potential remains for bouts of heavy rain in waves of showers and a few thunderstorms streaming in from off the Atlantic. This may cause localized ponding.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday...Bonnie may be a tropical depression before the start of the period. The system or its remnants will be in the area through the period as it moves slowly up along the Carolina coast. The current forecast track has it lifting north of the Cape Fear area Tue night. This will keep the weather unsettled, but drier air and subsidence will eventually reach the area. Thus, would expect a greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms throughout Mon with coverage perhaps shrinking inland on Tue, but still high along the coast. We are still forecasting total rainfall amounts in the 2 to 3 inch range although higher amounts will be possible. Thick cloud cover Mon will be shrinking from W to E Tue and Tue night and this will result in slightly warmer temps inland on Tue. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM Sunday...The moisture directly associated with Bonnie should be out of the picture by Wednesday. Sufficient moisture will remain for scattered showers and storms however especially if some upper troughiness remains behind. Rain chances should arguably wind up just a bit higher over northern zones. No more mid level trough on Thursday but a poorly defined surface pressure pattern will remain. The sea breeze and outflow boundaries should still manage to produce appreciable coverage of mainly diurnal storms. The former should make good progress inland. Rain chances then rise a bit Friday and maybe moreso Saturday as the next upper trough and surface cold front approach from the north and west. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 12Z...Difficult to nail down the TAFs today as ceilings/visibilities will be all over the place, predominately MVFR. Low pressure will continue to linger to our south, giving us a nice plume of tropical moisture throughout the day. Water vapor indicates the potential for us getting dry slotted, however any solar insolation will only help to fuel convection. Look for predominately easterly flow, with somewhat of a southeasterly component this afternoon. Extended Outlook...Unsettled weather through Thursday with possible SHRA/isolated TSRA and TEMPO MVFR/IFR conditions. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 910 AM Sunday...The Tropical Storm Warning has been cancelled as Bonnie has been downgraded to a depression. Have hoisted Small Craft advisories for all waters into the evening hours. latest obs show 5 to 7 ft seas for much of our area SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday...Bonnie may be a tropical depression by the start of the period. The depression or its remnants will slowly lift north along the upper South Carolina coast and the southeast North Carolina coast...perhaps lifting north of the Cape Fear waters Tue night. This will keep showers and thunderstorms across the waters for much of the period. South winds will hold across the waters Mon and Mon night. As what is left of Bonnie lifts slowly away from the area Tue and Tue night...winds should come around to a more NW or N direction. Seas will be 4 to 5 ft Mon, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft by Tue and then 2 to 3 ft Tue night. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM Sunday...Decreasing wind and seas through the period as tropical system moves off to the north and east. Wednesday`s wind direction forecast may need some refining as there is still guidance that stalls the system very near the area until then. Not so by Thursday at which time the system`s exit will bring a west wind that will then back to southerly as west Atlantic high pressure takes hold.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. NC...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250- 252-254-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...REK/RJD SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DL MARINE...REK/RJD/MBB

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