Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 310539 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 139 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. A COASTAL FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING GOOD RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 1:30 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY IS MAINTAINING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. OBSERVED 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF +14 TO +15C ARE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TOO...AND TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DATE. A STALLED FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA GEORGIA LINE TO THE GULF STREAM WATERS OFF SOUTH CAROLINA MARKS THE EDGE OF TROPICAL AIR AT THE SURFACE. OUR AIRMASS IS HEAVILY MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR THAT HAS SPENT THE PAST DAY TRAVERSING THE SEASONABLY WARM WATER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES FOR CLOUDS REMAINING AT LEAST ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE REGION...POTENTIALLY SPREADING EASTWARD TO NEAR THE COAST AS WELL. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING NEAR THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT SHOULD INGEST A FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE MOVING ONTO THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...LIFTING IT UP THROUGH THE 800-750 MB LAYER OVERNIGHT. THE LIFT IS QUITE WEAK AND WERE IT NOT FOR ITS RICH MOISTURE CONTENT IT PROBABLY WOULD NOT BE WORTH MENTIONING. I HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FORECASTS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST INTERIOR LOCATIONS...WITH 70-75 EXPECTED AT THE COAST IN AN ONSHORE FLOW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. H5 TROF ACROSS HUDSON BAY IN CANADA STARTS TO LIFT TO THE NE TURNING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM NW AROUND TO THE SW BY FRIDAY AND A WARM MOIST TRANSPORT OF AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION BUT THIS WILL BE OFFSET AS COASTAL TROUGH PUSHES ONSHORE DURING FRIDAY AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POPS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS AGAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ON THURSDAY REGION STARTS TO SEE AN INCREASE IN PWAT AT THIS TIME I HAVE SCALED BACK ON THE THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE NIGHT TIME WITH A BETTER CHANCE BY FRIDAY. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION FOR TEMPS/POP BUT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER POPS FROM THE GFS ON FRIDAY AS INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF COASTAL TROF MOVING ONSHORE SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION THREAT ACROSS REGION. THIS WILL ALSO HELP IN KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN. PWAT INCREASE ON FRIDAY TO AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO INCREASE POPS TO OVER 40 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES INLAND. STAGE IS SET FOR SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHILE CLOUD COVER INHIBITS DAYTIME HIGHS FROM REACHING CLIMO NORMS. MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY BOTH WASH OUT AS MONDAY PROGRESSES BUT THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR A SIMILAR FORECAST. TUESDAY HAD PREVIOUSLY LOOKED LIKE A MORE TYPICAL AUGUST DAY BUT MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE MID LEVEL VEERING AND STILL SHOW SOME WEAK VORTICITY CENTERS PASSING OVERHEAD. FEEL IT MAY BE BEST TO STILL SHOW A HIGHER THAN CLIMO POP-BUT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WILL ALSO SHOW RISING AFTERNOON HIGHS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS SEASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART ALTHOUGH SOME DEEP MOISTURE MAY BE LINGERING OVER FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...VFR THIS TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VSBYS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AT KFLO/KLBT. ONLY LIMITED AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE AVAILABLE FOR BR FORMATION. THE BEST MOISTURE IS AT KFLO BUT A BROKEN LAYER OF MID CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE. THUS BELIEVE THE CHANCE OF IFR IS LOW AT KFLO AND LOW AT KLBT DUE TO LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS SCT DURING THE MORNING BUT COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KLBT. SCT LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH THIN BKN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME E-ESE WITH STRONGEST SPEEDS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. AFTER SUNSET THERE WILL BE SCT MVFR LEVEL LOW CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS...THEN EVENTUALLY THE INLAND TERMINALS LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MVFR CIGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AND PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A FRONT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1:30 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS VIRGINIA AND A STALLED FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA GEORGIA LINE TO THE GULF STREAM WATERS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 KNOTS WHICH IS HELPING SUSTAIN A 2-3 FOOT 5-SECOND WIND CHOP. WHEN COMBINED WITH A SMALL SOUTHEAST 9-SECOND SWELL...COMBINED SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 3 FEET. ALTHOUGH A RENEGADE SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS APPEAR TO ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...BETTER CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS PERIOD AS STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED BACK TOWARDS THE COAST THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE DURING FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS WITH WEAK GRADIENT ON THURSDAY BUT INCREASE FRIDAY WITH COASTAL TROF MOVING ONSHORE. WINDS MAINLY E TO SE ON THURSDAY VEERING TO THE S-SW BY FRIDAY. WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SE WINDS ON SATURDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST MOVES FURTHER WEST. SEAS AROUND 3 FT FOR THE MOST PART AS WIND WAVES QUITE LIGHT BUT WNA SPECTRAL PLOTS SHOWING A SELY SWELL. HEADING INTO SUNDAY A MINOR VEER TO THE S AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND WEAKENS ALLOWING WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT WITH LOCAL WIND GENERATION. SEAS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. AS THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY A SIMILAR ONE COMPASS POINT VEER TO SW CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SWELL ENERGY SHOULD THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STRENGTHEN BUT THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP AND ITS FUTURE PATH AND STRENGTH STILL PRETTY UP IN THE AIR.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CRM NEAR TERM...REK/TRA SHORT TERM...MAC LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR MARINE...REK/TRA/MBB/MAC

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