Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 181045 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 544 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Mild air will surge into the region Monday and Tuesday ahead of a low pressure system that will approach from the west. This system will bring moderate rain Wednesday and Wednesday night. High pressure will build in Thursday and then weaken on Friday as a cold front slowly approaches from the west. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Monday...A diffuse warm air advection pattern will continue across the area through the near term. The mid level flow will be mostly west to southwest until late tonight when a slight shortwave moves across. This will be critical as it will switch the wind direction to offshore. As for today there is little in the way of forcing and most guidance keeps pops to the south of the area and thus I have walked back the inherited values. Mostly cloudy skies will continue across the area. Guidance has been insistent on sea fog developing on the better defined southwest flow the aforementioned trough develops. I have added this to the forecast for late this afternoon and through the evening hours until the weak offshore flow develops. I did undercut guidance for temperatures today via the moisture laden conditions. On a similar note I increased values for Tuesday morning lows. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Monday...A mild and dry Tuesday will give way to a wet and chillier Wednesday as a frontal system emerging from the deep south impacts the area. Temperatures on Tuesday will be elevated above normal as a bubble high north of a dissipating frontal system brings a relatively warm SWly flow to the region. Highs will be mainly in the upper 60s most places. Deep-layer moisture increases overnight as an upper short wave drives a developing frontal system east across the Carolinas. Extensive cloud cover and good rain chances will keep highs topped in the lower to mid 60s Wednesday. POPs will be likely on Wednesday and Wednesday night, with rain likely tapering off by daybreak on Thursday as the frontal system slides south of the area. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Sunday...A front could bring a healthy dose of rain high as pressure wedges in from the north on Thursday. This wedge will weaken but largely remain in the Carolinas, allowing for a moderation towards warmer temperatures. It then lifts out by Saturday clearing the path for warm and moist advection ahead of the next cold front, previously slated for arrival Saturday but it now appears to be up to two days slower. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 12Z...A weak stationary boundary lays just to our south with some of the moisture overriding it. Some light showers are possible, but should not affect aviation all that much. This evening...some uncertainty with respect to visibilities and ceilings. Think the coast stands to see possible IFR conditions, mainly due to dewpoints higher than ocean temperatures and a light south southwest flow, however confidence is rather low at this point in time. Extended Outlook... Unsettled weather Tuesday through Thursday morning as a near stationary front moves in and out of the region.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Monday....Weak wind fields will continue across the coastal waters through the period. However a better defined southwest flow will develop during the day which will be a change from the erratic nature of the wind direction from the past day or so. Speeds remain ten knots or below. By early Tuesday a weak surface trough passing by will switch the winds to an offshore component. Sea fog is expected to develop late this afternoon and impact all waters to some degree until the wind shift occurs. Overall seas will be 1-2 feet with perhaps a few three footers late. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Monday...A slack pressure gradient will bring benign conditions to the waters into the daylight hours of Wednesday with winds of around 10 kts and seas of right around 2 ft. A frontal system slowly sliding south across the waters will bring periods of rain to the coastal waters on Wednesday. Conditions deteriorate Wednesday night in the wake of this system with NE winds picking up to 20 kts or more and seas building up to 6 ft in places. A Small Craft Advisory may be required for Wednesday night. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 3 PM Sunday...With a front stalled over the area but at an uncertain latitude there is some uncertainty related to Wednesday`s wind forecast. There is also some uncertainty regarding wind speed. For now though the current solution favored keeps the front to our north and allows an approaching wave to ramp up wind speeds later in the day Wednesday. Once this low moves by high pressure will nose in from the north and turn winds decidedly NE. A short-lived advisory is tough to rule out either ahead or behind this system, or both given the aforementioned uncertainties. As the high weakens heading into Friday looking for decreasing and veering winds. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...43 MARINE...REK/MBB/SHK

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