Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS62 KILM 281941
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Issued by National Weather Service CHARLESTON SC
341 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017
Expect high pressure to extend across the area from offshore
through Sunday. Expect warm temperatures and isolated sea breeze
convection, mainly on Sunday. The next cold front will bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms late Monday into early
Tuesday. High pressure will follow for the mid-week period. Low
pressure system may impact the region during Thursday with a
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Tonight: Flow around the Bermuda High stretching into the
forecast area will promote humid conditions with above average
temperatures. Tranquil conditions are expected overnight, with
low temperatures around 70.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday and Sunday: The synoptic pattern will be dominated by deep
layered subtropical ridging with the region positioned just to the
west of the 850-500 hPa anticyclone. Modified forecast soundings for
both Saturday and Sunday show pronounced capping with only the far
interior west of I-95 becoming uncapped for about 1-2 hours with the
sea breeze. Given lower tropospheric moisture looks pretty meager
outside of the boundary layer, prefer to go with a dry forecast for
both days. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs ranging
form the lower 90s well inland to around 80 at the beaches. Lows
Sunday morning will range from the upper 60s inland to the lower 70s
at the beaches.
Monday: A cold front will approach from the west Monday as high
pressure shifts farther offshore and a powerful storm system moves
into the upper Mississippi Valley. Moisture return ahead of the
front looks solid with taps noted from off the Gulf of Mexico and
Atlantic. Although the upper low and the core of the strongest
forcing looks to pass well to the north, there will be enough to
support a broad swath of showers/tstms across the frontal zone. Pops
will be increased to 70% for most zones Monday night as the front
sweeps offshore. Highs will warm into the lower-mid 80s away from
the beaches Monday afternoon with lows Tuesday morning ranging from
the upper 50s well inland to the mid 60s at the beaches.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface and mid level ridge will weaken and drift east Mon,
allowing a cold front to approach from the W. Low pressure and
associated strong dynamics and upper level support will be well
dislocated from the Carolinas as a cold front moves across the
area Mon night. This suggests convection weakening as it moves
into the eastern Carolinas. Current timing brings the likelihood
for showers and thunderstorms later Mon and Mon night.
As the front moves off the coast Tue morning, high pressure
along the Gulf Coast will slide east and then offshore to our S
during Wed. This should bring a dry period. Deep low pressure
will move out of the mid south and Gulf coast states Wed,
lifting slowly to the NE. Its associated cold front will move
into the Southeast states Thu-Thu night, bringing the risk for
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Diurnal cumulus field will persist across the region for the
remainder of the afternoon with only slight chances for
precipitation. Probabilities of direct impacts at any of the
terminals due to showers/tstorms are too low to mention in the
18Z TAF cycle. Southerly winds will remain gusty near the coast
through the evening hours due to seabreeze enhancement. Model
guidance suggests that restrictions overnight due to lowering
ceilings and/or vsbys are probable, with the most likely outcome
being low ceilings due to a nocturnal jet sustaining mixing
near the surface. This will aid in preventing widespread
surface-based fog and will maintain elevated surface winds
through most of the night.
Extended outlook...Periods of IFR/MVFR conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms late Monday into early Tuesday.
Tonight: Atlantic high pressure will continue to dominate
overnight. Quiet conditions expected, with nonzero but very low
chances for convection, primarily near the gulfstream. Generally
southerly, onshore flow will range 10-15 knots, with seas 2-4
feet, highest offshore.
Saturday through Monday: Southerly wind regime will persist
through Monday as the region remains along the western flanks of
Atlantic high pressure centered well offshore. Speeds will
generally remain 10-15 kt through the period, except Sunday
Night into Monday where speeds increase to 15-20 kt and 20-25 kt
Monday night as low-level jetting and a tightening pressure
gradient settle in ahead of a cold front. Seas will slowly build
over the weekend, peaking 5-7 ft by Monday night ahead of the
cold front. A Small Craft Advisory could be needed as early as
Tuesday through Thursday: In the wake of the cold frontal passage
early Tuesday, offshore winds will slowly diminish. The offshore
trajectories will knock seas down and should drop below Small Craft
Advisory levels by Tuesday afternoon. There are no concerns for
Wednesday into Thursday.
Elevated tides are expected to continue into the weekend, aided by
persistent onshore winds and lingering astronomical influences.
Generally, minor saltwater inundation is likely during the late
night high tides along the lower Cape Fear, including downtown
A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued from 10pm-2am for Inland
New Hanover County to account for flooding around high tide tonight.
For the immediate coast, the latest tide guidance suggests levels
will fall just shy of Coastal Flood Advisory thresholds at both
Wrightsville Beach and Springmaid Pier, although it will be
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
Saturday for NCZ107.