Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 230541 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 142 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1015 PM WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ILM CWA OVERNIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...TO OFF THE NJ-NY COASTS BY DAYBREAK. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/SC HAS DISSIPATED SINCE THE LOSS OF THE DAYS HEATING. THE CLOUDS CIRCULATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN N THRU E OF THE ILM CWA AS THE UPPER LOW ITSELF LIFTS TO THE NE. THEREFORE...WILL BE LOOKING AT CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE MASSAGED BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND AVAILABLE MODEL MOS GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE AN INFLUX OF EVEN LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS LATE IN THE PRE-DAWN THU HOURS WITH SOME UPPER 30S ADVECTING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA...UP TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A VERY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WILL CRAWL NORTHEASTWARD SLOWLY...REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY. AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ENCOUNTER A NARROW UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WEAKENED UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD UNEVENTFULLY FRIDAY EVENING. ASIDE FROM SOME CIRRUS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL REMAIN DRY. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A MOS CONSENSUS WAS FOLLOWED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...IN 2011, FARMERS ALMANAC CONDUCTED A POLL OF THEIR READERS ASKING FOR THE DEFINITION OF "PERFECT WEATHER." ALTHOUGH THE ANSWERS VARIED WIDELY...A MAJORITY DESCRIBED PERFECT WEATHER AS TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND A LIGHT BREEZE. FOR THOSE OF US LIVING IN THE CAROLINAS, MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL ALMOST EXACTLY MATCH THIS DEFINITION. BROAD 500MB TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...AND AN EXPANDING RIDGE OVER TEXAS...WILL FUNNEL COOL AND DRY CANADIAN AIR ON NW FLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW IS FAST...SO ANY IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...AND THE STRONGEST OF THESE IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH ANY VORT MAX...BUT THE SAT NIGHT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE TEMP DIFFERENTIAL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY...BUT THE DRY AIR MASS WILL BECOME...EXCEEDINGLY...DRY SUNDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING BELOW ONE-HALF INCH. LATE MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE WEST OF US SAT-MON...WILL MOVE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON RETURN FLOW. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED EVEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS MORE THAN CAN BE SAID FOR SAT-MON. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE LARGE DIURNAL RANGES THANKS TO THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MINS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER SUNRISE WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...TIGHTENED SFC PG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS OVERNIGHT...AS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE WATERS OFF THE NJ AND NY COASTS BY DAYBREAK THU. WILL CONTINUE TO ILLUSTRATE NW-NNW WINDS 10-20 KT...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR AND NORTHWARD. DECENT MIXING TO OCCUR TO THE OCEAN SFC AS 20-30 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK OCCUR ACROSS SSTS IN THE 70S. SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR...AND OFF WINYAH BAY. WIND DRIVEN WAVES TO DOMINATE THE SEAS SPECTRUM...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS AROUND 4 SECONDS. AN EASTERLY 1 FOOT OR LESS GROUND SWELL AT 10-11 SECOND PERIODS TO REMAIN IDENTIFIABLE. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SINK SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST. THIS SPELLS SLOWLY DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 3 FT SEAS THURSDAY DIMINISHING TO 1-2 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE WKND...WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN SPEED OR DIRECTION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT...CAUSING JUST A BRIEF AND SLIGHT UPTICK IN SPEEDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE NC COAST MONDAY...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SO WINDS DROP TO 5-10 KTS...BUT CAUSING A DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO THE E/NE AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. SEAS THROUGH THE WKND WILL BE 1-3 FT THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...HIGHEST EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL BACK TO 1-2 FT ON MONDAY AS THE WIND SPEEDS EASE.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DL/RJD

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