Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 281941 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC Issued by National Weather Service CHARLESTON SC 341 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Expect high pressure to extend across the area from offshore through Sunday. Expect warm temperatures and isolated sea breeze convection, mainly on Sunday. The next cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms late Monday into early Tuesday. High pressure will follow for the mid-week period. Low pressure system may impact the region during Thursday with a soaking rain. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Tonight: Flow around the Bermuda High stretching into the forecast area will promote humid conditions with above average temperatures. Tranquil conditions are expected overnight, with low temperatures around 70. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Saturday and Sunday: The synoptic pattern will be dominated by deep layered subtropical ridging with the region positioned just to the west of the 850-500 hPa anticyclone. Modified forecast soundings for both Saturday and Sunday show pronounced capping with only the far interior west of I-95 becoming uncapped for about 1-2 hours with the sea breeze. Given lower tropospheric moisture looks pretty meager outside of the boundary layer, prefer to go with a dry forecast for both days. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs ranging form the lower 90s well inland to around 80 at the beaches. Lows Sunday morning will range from the upper 60s inland to the lower 70s at the beaches. Monday: A cold front will approach from the west Monday as high pressure shifts farther offshore and a powerful storm system moves into the upper Mississippi Valley. Moisture return ahead of the front looks solid with taps noted from off the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic. Although the upper low and the core of the strongest forcing looks to pass well to the north, there will be enough to support a broad swath of showers/tstms across the frontal zone. Pops will be increased to 70% for most zones Monday night as the front sweeps offshore. Highs will warm into the lower-mid 80s away from the beaches Monday afternoon with lows Tuesday morning ranging from the upper 50s well inland to the mid 60s at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface and mid level ridge will weaken and drift east Mon, allowing a cold front to approach from the W. Low pressure and associated strong dynamics and upper level support will be well dislocated from the Carolinas as a cold front moves across the area Mon night. This suggests convection weakening as it moves into the eastern Carolinas. Current timing brings the likelihood for showers and thunderstorms later Mon and Mon night. As the front moves off the coast Tue morning, high pressure along the Gulf Coast will slide east and then offshore to our S during Wed. This should bring a dry period. Deep low pressure will move out of the mid south and Gulf coast states Wed, lifting slowly to the NE. Its associated cold front will move into the Southeast states Thu-Thu night, bringing the risk for robust thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Diurnal cumulus field will persist across the region for the remainder of the afternoon with only slight chances for precipitation. Probabilities of direct impacts at any of the terminals due to showers/tstorms are too low to mention in the 18Z TAF cycle. Southerly winds will remain gusty near the coast through the evening hours due to seabreeze enhancement. Model guidance suggests that restrictions overnight due to lowering ceilings and/or vsbys are probable, with the most likely outcome being low ceilings due to a nocturnal jet sustaining mixing near the surface. This will aid in preventing widespread surface-based fog and will maintain elevated surface winds through most of the night. Extended outlook...Periods of IFR/MVFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms late Monday into early Tuesday. && .MARINE... Tonight: Atlantic high pressure will continue to dominate overnight. Quiet conditions expected, with nonzero but very low chances for convection, primarily near the gulfstream. Generally southerly, onshore flow will range 10-15 knots, with seas 2-4 feet, highest offshore. Saturday through Monday: Southerly wind regime will persist through Monday as the region remains along the western flanks of Atlantic high pressure centered well offshore. Speeds will generally remain 10-15 kt through the period, except Sunday Night into Monday where speeds increase to 15-20 kt and 20-25 kt Monday night as low-level jetting and a tightening pressure gradient settle in ahead of a cold front. Seas will slowly build over the weekend, peaking 5-7 ft by Monday night ahead of the cold front. A Small Craft Advisory could be needed as early as Monday morning. Tuesday through Thursday: In the wake of the cold frontal passage early Tuesday, offshore winds will slowly diminish. The offshore trajectories will knock seas down and should drop below Small Craft Advisory levels by Tuesday afternoon. There are no concerns for Wednesday into Thursday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Elevated tides are expected to continue into the weekend, aided by persistent onshore winds and lingering astronomical influences. Generally, minor saltwater inundation is likely during the late night high tides along the lower Cape Fear, including downtown Wilmington. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued from 10pm-2am for Inland New Hanover County to account for flooding around high tide tonight. For the immediate coast, the latest tide guidance suggests levels will fall just shy of Coastal Flood Advisory thresholds at both Wrightsville Beach and Springmaid Pier, although it will be close. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ107. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.