Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 231150 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 750 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BRINGING INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6 AM SATURDAY...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS IS DESCENDING UPON THE CAPE FEAR REGION THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: IMPRESSIVELY LARGE RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CONUS WHILE GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVELS QUITE DRY. AT THE SURFACE THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE, BRINGING A VERY MOIST AND WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WE CAN EXPECT HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON TO RANGE FROM AROUND 100 TO 104F. LACK OF BOTH MOISTURE ALOFT AND STRONG FORCING WILL GREATLY LIMIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TODAY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A BROAD, WEAK SHORT-WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, SO DO HAVE ISOLATED CONVECTION AREA-WIDE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE, WE CAN EXPECT ISOLATED SEA- BREEZE FORCED CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AS BROAD RIDGING PREVAILS ALOFT AND THE BERMUDA HIGH PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE. BOTH DAYS WILL FEATURE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 100F, WITH A HEAT ADVISORY QUITE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY. MUCH LIKE ON SATURDAY, VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO ISOLATED STORMS EACH DAY, PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND ANY OTHER BOUNDRIES THAT HAPPEN BY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...OVERALL, BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYERS IN FORECAST MUCH OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE PERSISTENT S-SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED SHWRS/TSTMS EACH DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE HELPING TO KEEP CONVECTION MORE LIMITED WILL BREAK DOWN A BIT INTO MID WEEK AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS DOWN AS IT PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTH AND EAST. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL MAKE IT, IT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA WHICH IN TURN MAY HELP TO INCREASE THE GRADIENT FLOW AND LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. IT WILL ALSO TURN THE N-NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE MIDWEST TO A MORE W-NW FLOW ALOFT, AROUND BASE OF STRETCHED OUT UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SHOULD ALSO SEE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION REACHING INTO AREA FROM UPSTREAM. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY BACK IN FROM THE EAST BY THURS/FRI. BY MID WEEK, THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT TO THE NORTH AND RETREAT OF RIDGE EXTENDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST SHOULD INCREASE CHC OF CONVECTION AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH MAY SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAX TEMPS. BUT RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FROM ATLANTIC AND OVERALL EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPS MOST OF THE WEEK. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY EXIST OVER SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 12Z...Potential for MVFR due to fog late overnight into early Sunday morning. Otherwise expect VFR through the valid TAF period, with isolated SHRA/TSRA possible. Latest radar imagery depicts an area of convection moving southward off the coast. While this activity will continue to affect the coastal sites over the next hour, do not anticipate any restrictions. For the rest of today, VFR will prevail with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Light winds this morning will become south-southeasterly and increase to around 12 kts or less. Into tonight, any convection will taper off and winds will become light. Latest guidance suggests the potential for fog development towards the end of the forecast period. Given lower confidence have not introduced attm. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Isolated afternoon convection through into midweek may create periods of MVFR/IFR. Otherwise expect VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6 AM SATURDAY...UPDATED FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: THE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE SW AT 10 TO 15 KTS, WITH SEAS OF 2 OR 3 FT THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WINDS FROM THE SW AT 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE THE PERIOD, WITH SEAS OF 2 OR 3 FT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH A SLIGHT SPIKE IN LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVE, ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. BY LATE WED GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SHOULD INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS WED NIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT SEAS 2 TO 3 FT BUT INCREASING SLIGHTLY THROUGH WED UP TO 3 TO 4 FT AND MAY SEE A FEW 5 FTERS IN OUTER WATERS IN STIFFER 15 TO 20 KT SW WINDS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...SGL

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