Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 120704 CCA AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 303 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak area of low pressure will move north along the Carolina coast today, bringing numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms and possible flooding. A cold front will approach the area early next week and then meander, keeping the weather unsettled for much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 300 AM Saturday...A wave of low pressure moving up the Carolina coast will bring showers and thunderstorms into the eastern Carolinas through today. Shortwave energy rotating around the broad mid to upper trough extending down into the Carolinas from the north, will help enhance this activity. A deep SW flow of moisture will continue to feed across the area from the south with pcp water values up over 2 inches. This moisture is being channeled between Bermuda High to the east and high pressure building down from the upper midwest behind a cold front. GFS/NAM shows pcp water values maxing out around 2.4 inches right along the NC coast through this morning. The front will make it into the western Carolinas by tonight and although it will not make it into the local area, it should help to veer winds around from S/SE around to a more SW direction. This may help to nudge the deepest moisture a little farther off shore overnight tonight, but overall expect a channel of moisture to continue to feed directly up across the Carolinas through the period in deep S-SW winds. The greatest shower activity was aligned up from the SC near Charleston up through Georgetown and Williamsburg counties and continuing north up the I-95 corridor very early this morning. The HRRR high res model shows this main area of convection shifting east toward the Cape Fear coast by late morning into early this afternoon with other showers developing behind it. Overall expect plenty of clouds, shwrs and thunderstorms through the period with periods of heavy rain. Luckily the low to mid level flow will pick up to keep showers moving at a decent clip which should help with flooding concerns, but the grounds in many places, especially closer to the coast remain quite saturated with not much sun to dry them out. The very warm and humid southerly flow in combination with plenty of clouds will keep overnight lows above normal and daytime highs just below normal...into the mid 80s most places.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Saturday...Forecast reasoning continues to show a very wet pattern as a large scale trough dominates the eastern United States. The models continue to show precipitable water values above 2" throughout the period. In the upper levels both the NAM and GFS indicated slightly drier air aloft on Sunday but returns Monday through Tuesday. Weak synoptic scale forcing appears to be the best on Monday and mesoscale diabatic forcing appears each day to produce convection each day. So expect a 40 to 50% chance of convection on Sunday and slightly higher on Monday. High temperatures on Sunday are expected to reach the upper 80s to near 90 inland mid 80s at the beaches. A few degrees cooler on Monday with an increased chances of afternoon convection. Lows each night in the middle 70s inland and upper 70s at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM Friday...Expect unsettled weather to continue through most of the extended period as a cold front gradually pushes across the Carolinas early in the week, and stalls just south of the area. With a ridge well east of the area across the Atlantic, a developing trough across the Great Lakes will gradually push into the Ohio Valley through early in week. Guidance suggests a cold front will stall just west-northwest of the area on Tuesday, before pushing through early Wednesday morning. During this time, ample moisture will be in place across the forecast area as PW values are forecast to remain over 2 inches through Wednesday evening. As a result, expect increased cloud cover and convection chances through midweek. Once the cold front pushes southeastward through the area, the boundary will stall just south as high pressure builds in. Though a minor lull in activity is possible on Thursday as drier air attempts to infiltrate in, PW values will remain around 1.8 inches. This along with the afternoon sea breeze, residual boundaries, and the main boundary just south of the forecast area, have kept POPs in through the end of the week, though lower than the beginning of the period. Cloud cover will play a role in the temperature forecast earlier in the week, but for now, have kept with mid to upper 80`s through the extended period and overnight lows in the lower 70`s. An overall warming trend is possible towards the end of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 06Z...Low pressure and its associated deep moisture will work its way north from the coastal waters off the SC coast moving on shore into the eastern Carolinas through today. This will bring numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain to the area. The feed of moisture was reaching into FLO and LBT by 06z and will continue to affect inland and then coastal terminals with MVFR and occasional IFR ceilings and vsbys possible through the day in showers and thunderstorms. There could be prolonged periods of flight restrictions for all the terminals today. Extended Outlook...There is a chance of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility in showers and thunderstorms Sun with probabilities increasing Mon through Wed. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Saturday...S-SE winds early this morning around 10 to 15 kts will veer slightly through the day into this evening to the S-SW increasing to around 15 kts with some higher gusts. This southerly push will increase seas from 3 to 4 ft up to 4 to 5 ft later today into tonight with a decrease heading into Sun. Winds and seas will be higher in showers and storms. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move up over the waters from the south reducing visibilities at times in heavy rain. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Saturday...A front will stall inland over the Carolinas and this will keep the winds southwest to west around 10 to 15 knots through the period. The latest run of the near shore wave model coupled with the wave watch III indicates seas will range between 2 and 4 feet through this period. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 PM Friday...Southwest flow will persist across the waters ahead of an approaching cold front from the west- northwest. Expect this front to push across the waters late Tuesday overnight into Wednesday morning, where it will likely stall just south of the waters. Seas will increase to 4 ft in the outer waters on Tuesday. Southwest winds around 10 kts will increase to 10 to 15 kts on Tuesday as the gradient begins to tighten with the approaching front. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...DRH LONG TERM...SGL AVIATION...RGZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.