Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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946 FXUS62 KILM 231926 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 326 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will run below normal through early Friday as cool high pressure holds across the area. A warming trend will begin Friday afternoon through the weekend, as a low pressure system slowly approaches from the west. This system will bring a chance of rain late in the weekend, followed by another system Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Thursday...This afternoon will remain dry and unseasonably cool as a modified Arctic airmass moves overhead. Expect highs only in the mid to upper 50s. The associated high, now centered over the mid-Atlantic states, will move offshore overnight. Dewpoints will rise overnight as a moist low-level northeasterly flow sets up and it now looks like only a slim chance for frost formation overnight. Best chances will be for our northern tier of counties and in otherwise isolated locations where patchy frost is possible after midnight. Good radiational cooling conditions will lead to minimums in the mid to upper 30s. Surface winds turn southerly on Friday, allowing a modest warm- advective regime to set up. Highs will finally rise back up to near or just above normal with most places seeing a degree or two either side of 70. Expect some afternoon cu to form with the lower layers moistening up, but no triggers and an otherwise dry column makes for another day of no rain.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Thursday...A return to above normal temperatures will take place heading into the weekend. Atlantic high pressure will maintain a solid southerly return flow through the low levels bringing warmer and moister air into the Carolinas through the weekend. Mid to upper ridge building up the southeast coast will shift east through the period. Overall, plenty of dry air and subsidence in the mid levels with H5 heights peaking up near 585 dam early Sat. As the ridge slips east, the deep S-SW flow will stream some high clouds into the area and the low level moisture increase up through h85 will also aid in development of some afternoon cu, especially along the convergent sea breeze in the afternoon. Overall, expect mainly clear skies with a good deal of sunshine and above normal temps. The 850 temps will be near 6 to 7c through the period which is up from near 0c just the day before. Low temps around 50 Fri night will rise into the mid 70s on Saturday. Sun night will be almost 10 degrees above normal with low temps in the mid 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 300 AM Thursday...Rain chances are best inland Sunday as a low pressure system swerves north, well west of the coast. A warm and humid day Sunday all areas, well into the 70s, if not a few 80s depending on cloud cover extent, even ceiling breaks could warm the air quickly. A rumble of thunder is possible and favored inland. A few low pressure centers beneath short-waves will sustain low end rain chances Monday into Tuesday. QPF looks quite low but hopefully enough to knock a little pollen out of the sky and pines. No cold air on the horizon and temperatures overall appear to run above normal through the extended period.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 18Z...VFR all terminals through the TAF valid period with cool and dry high pressure overhead. Winds will go light overnight. Extended outlook...MVFR in showers possible Sunday through Tuesday. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect through 5 PM this afternoon. Latest obs show NE winds of 15 to 20 kts with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Winds will slacken this evening as high pressure centered well to our north passes offshore. Conditions will gradually improve through the period with winds Friday only in the 5 to 10 kt range and seas of around 2 ft. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...High pressure anchored over the Atlantic will maintain a S-SE return flow across the waters...10 kts or less. Should see a spike in on shore flow with the afternoon sea breeze. The southerly push will produce a gradual rise in seas from 2 to 3 ft up to 2 to 4 ft by Sat night. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Thursday...No advisories are expected Sunday and Monday but seas may approach 4 feet since southerly flow remains persistent. Isolated marine showers can be expected this period but TSTMS if any would be confined to the Gulf Stream if at all. Seas 3-4 feet mainly in SE waves between 7-10 second intervals with a moderate chop. The warm land temps will support a sea breeze so expected gusts near 20 KT near shore in the afternoon hours.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...REK

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