Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 231124 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 724 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY...STALLING NEAR THE COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY OR TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF INLAND FOG WILL RESTRICT THE VISIBILITY TO A HALF MILE OR LESS THIS MORNING. THE FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 730 AND 830 AM. WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA. THE PREVAILING FLOW IS BEGINNING TO BRING SOME OF THAT DRIER AIR UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS WELL. THIS TREND IS WHAT WE EXPECT WILL AID IN LIMITING THE NUMBER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY. DRIER AIR ALSO HEATS MORE EFFICIENTLY AND WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...TEMPS SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS. SHOWERS SKIRTING THE COAST MAY MOVE ONSHORE...ESPECIALLY AS THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND THEN PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND THIS MAY ACT TO FOCUS MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE INLAND TROUGH WILL BE STEERED INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 GIVEN THE MEAN FLOW WILL BE SW. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SURVIVE PAST THE EARLY EVE HOURS AS THE AIRMASS SHOULD STABILIZE RATHER QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING GIVEN A DRIER COLUMN AND THE LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPPING AN EXPANSIVE WESTERN RIDGE WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT A DEEPER EAST COAST TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PENETRATE FURTHER SOUTH THAN IS NORMAL FOR MID SUMMER. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA LINE AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW LEVEL JETTING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS ELEVATED TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S WEST OF THE SEABREEZE. AREAS CLOSEST TO THE COAST SHOULD NOT QUITE REACH 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. MID 80S WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE HEAT INDEX ACROSS MOST OF THE PEE DEE AND UP THROUGH PEMBROKE AND LUMBERTON WILL FLIRT WITH 100 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...SOME DRIER AIR STREAMING IN INITIALLY ON THURS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PCP WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1.5 INCHES BUT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND SLOWLY THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH GUSTY SW WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS UP TO 30 KTS. MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY LATE THURS AS PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP OVER 2 INCHES. EXPECT MOST WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY BY LATE THURS AFTN AS PRE FRONTAL TROUGH NEARS THE AREA AND GREATEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES AROUND THE BASE OF THE H5 TROUGH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LAY JUST WEST OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA ON THURS AFTN BUT HEADING INTO THURS NIGHT...STEERING FLOW WILL VEER TO BECOME MORE SW TO W AND SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA. THE FRONT WILL GET HUNG UP OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND SHOULD SEE FRIDAY MORE ACTIVE ALONG THE COAST WHILE DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY IN ACROSS INLAND AREAS. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT BEFORE IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING A DEEPER DRIER FLOW AND INCREASED SUBSIDENCE HEADING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. DECENT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES PEAKING THURS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 90S AND WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS INTO THE 70S...TEMPS WILL FEEL AS IF THEY ARE OVER 100 DEGREES IN PLACES ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN AND HEIGHTS LOWER FOR FRIDAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER BUT STILL UP AROUND 90. CLOUDS AND INCREASED SHWR ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE TEMPS ESPECIALLY LATE THURS THROUGH EARLY FRI. LOW TEMPS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...LINGERING COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN NEAR THE COAST AS IT WEAKENS LEAVING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS CLOSE BY...ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH COLUMN MOISTURE APPRECIABLY LOWER ABOVE H85. PCP WATER VALUES WILL BE DOWN NEAR 1.5 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY AND EVEN LOWER INLAND. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH SATURDAY. MID TO UPPER TROUGH LIFTS FAR ENOUGH OUT OF AREA AND ALTHOUGH A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE CAROLINAS AS RIDGE TRIES TO NOSE INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER POPS IN MORE LOCALIZED SHWR ACTIVITY AND WARM TEMPS. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH AGAIN PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. THEREFORE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN H5 TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TUES PUSHING FRONT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW FOR DEEPER DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MID WEEK. THE MAIN TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE EAST COAST WITH LOWER HEIGHTS AND TEMPS PUSHED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF CLIMO FOR MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH READINGS IN THE 90S FOR HIGHS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BUT BY TUES MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S MOST PLACES WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 60S. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF IFR THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG...IMPROVING TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE TODAY. OVERNIGHT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR DUE TO PATCHY FOG. WHILE THE COASTAL SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR...IFR PREVAILS AT THE INLAND SITES DUE TO FOG AND LOW CIGS...WHICH WILL IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS ALL SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR CHANCES TO INCREASE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA...TAPERING OFF LATER THIS EVENING. AS FOR WINDS...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INLAND SITES WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR/IFR DUE TO FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN STORMS.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM WEDNESDAY...THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD WESTWARD TODAY. THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN SHARPEN AS IT MOVES INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING THIS EVE. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE N AND NW LATE TONIGHT...REACHING THE NORTH-CAROLINA-VIRGINIA LINE BY SUNRISE THU. ACROSS THE WATERS... WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND WINDS OF SIMILAR SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. TOTAL SEAS WILL BE A PRODUCT OF SW WINDS AND A SE 8 TO 9 SECOND SWELL. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE 3 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME 5 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTERMOST WATERS TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE CAROLINAS LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR THE COAST ON FRI. OVERALL SHOULD SEE A TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS LATE THURS INTO EARLY FRI. SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT EARLY THURS WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 5 FT BY THURS EVE AND POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS THURS EVE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY AS FRONT WEAKENS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MORE W WINDS ON FRI DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE FRONT MAKES IT BEFORE COMING BACK AROUND TO THE S-SW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...WILL MAINTAIN A SW FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED AND NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY EARLY MONDAY. SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SAT MORNING AND THEN WILL BEGIN A RISE THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY POSSIBLY REACHING ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS BY SUN NIGHT. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS SAT MORNING WILL REACH UP TO 3 TO 5 FT BY SUN EVENING AND NEAR 6 FT BY EARLY MON MORNING. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...SGL

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