Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 230833 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 333 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIND....RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY. RAIN WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTER A BREAK MONDAY. THANKSGIVING DAY TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND COLD.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 940 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVERSPREADING THE CAROLINAS WHILE MOISTURE ALSO INCREASES IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. IT SHOULD ONLY TAKE ANOTHER 3-5 HOURS TO SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY TO SEE RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS NE SOUTH CAROLINA. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR SUMMARY AND 23Z HRRR RUNS...I HAVE SPED UP THE INTRODUCTION OF RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST BY SEVERAL HOURS AND HAVE INCREASED POPS THROUGH DAYBREAK AS WELL. EVEN ACROSS THE SANTEE RIVER RIVER AREA I STILL ONLY THINK A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WILL FALL BEFORE DAYBREAK. MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THEIR LOWEST READINGS OF THE NIGHT NOW. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE FROM THIS POINT FORWARD AS CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASES. AFTER DRAWING THE LATEST HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVES IN THE DIGITAL FORECAST I NOTED THE TEXT FORMATTER USED THE "RISING TEMPERATURE" PHRASE FOR SOME COASTAL ZONES TONIGHT. THIS IS GOOD AND DESCRIBES THE ANTICIPATED SHAPE OF HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVES NEAR THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE AFFECTS OF MASSIVE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES LINGERING MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE THE CATALYST FOR A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY WITH A DRY 24 HOURS OR SO ENSUING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED LATER TUESDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A POTENT 300MB JET WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION BECOMING FAVORABLY PLACED LATER TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WORKS IN TANDEM WITH A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN. I HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD TO ADDRESS. NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH A WARM DAY IN STORE MONDAY COOLING SOME 10-15 DEGREES TUESDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PAINT A WET SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE...WELL OFFSHORE WITH EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WORKS TOGETHER. IT HAS BEEN INTERESTING SEEING HE 850MB ZERO ISOTHERM MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH PRECIPITATION BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LEVELS JUST A BIT TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. I RAISED POPS INCREMENTALLY TO ADDRESS THE GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY AND INCREASED CONFIDENCE. BEYOND THIS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FOR THE MOST PART. THERE WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY BUT LITTLE ELSE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME SUNDAY MORNING HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR/LIFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE 06Z ISSUANCE PERIOD. LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY FROM PCPN AND FOG...WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG AND/OR AFTER THE WFP THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS AND SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN. AFTER DAYBREAK...LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FURTHER INFILTRATE WITH CEILINGS STEADILY LOWERING THRUOUT THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT/COASTAL FRONT EITHER PUSHES INLAND BEFORE ALTOGETHER LIFTING TO THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING. INCREASING CHANCES FOR STRATIFORM RAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES...LOWERING CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY FROM BOTH PCPN AND FOG WILL COMBINE TO CREATE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL FRONT AND LIFTING WARM FRONT. BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE OF TIMING...HAVE OPTED TO NOT INTRODUCE ATTM. AS FOR WINDS... EXPECT A VEERING TREND COMMENCING WITH VARIABLE OR NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE COASTAL FRONT AND WARM FRONT APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON...AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AFTER THE WFP THIS EVENING. INITIALLY...SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 5 KT...INCREASING TO 10 KTS DAYTIME SUNDAY MORNING...FURTHER INCREASING TO AROUND 15+ KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. VFR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY. && .MARINE...
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...TRA/MBB SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DCH/SGL

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