Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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842 FXUS62 KILM 181135 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 635 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move offshore of the SE coast bringing milder weather and a gradual increase in clouds through today. An upper level disturbance may bring some light showers tonight. Warmer temperatures during the weekend should last through next week. Dry weather most of next week may be interrupted as low pressure passes to the south spreading some clouds and possible showers into the Carolinas through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 615 AM Saturday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion follows: Unseasonably mild temperatures will continue through the near term despite passage of a weak cold front overnight. Weak ridging centered over the Bahamas today will give way as an ill- defined cold front with little in the way of thermal support moves across the eastern Carolinas overnight. Front is also lacking in low level moisture and with weak dynamics expect little to no significant precip with this feature. High-res guidance shows best shot at showers will be tonight, so retaining slight chance pops for most locations with minimal QPF. Pre-frontal warm advective regime will pump max temps up today into the lower to mid 70s, with lows of around 50 overnight. Satellite loops and guidance do show a general increase in cloud cover through the period. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Saturday...Dry and unseasonably warm weather will continue through the beginning of the new week as a broad ridge centered well to the north in Canada slowly transits the region. Very dry mid levels and no triggers means no precip is likely although cirrus will be on the increase starting Monday. A consensus of guidance gives us highs in the lower to mid 70s both days, with lows in the mid to upper 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 AM Saturday...High pressure extending down the east coast from Canada on Tuesday will shift off the coast and farther east through mid week. The mid to upper ridge reaching up through the southeast on Monday into Tues will also move off to the east late Tues. The high amplitude trough that follows will track east through mid week, and the southern portion will cut off into a closed low over the western Gulf coast on Tuesday tracking east over southern Florida on Thursday moving off into the Atlantic by Friday. This will produce increased clouds and chc of pcp through mid week over the Carolinas. The GFS is more bullish in terms of rainfall while ECMWF keeps it more of a trace event over the local area. As the high builds down from the north on Tues, may see slightly cooler temps but overall we remain with above normal temps into the 70s most days and overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Once this system moves east, weak high pressure will follow for Thurs into Fri. An increasing return flow will develop ahead of next system by late Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 12Z...VFR expected through the forecast period. Southwest winds of 5 to 10 KT or so expected today, though winds will become a little more southerly at the SC coastal terminals as the day progresses. Winds should diminish to about 5 kt tonight. There is a very small chance of showers overnight but that probability looks too small for even a VCSH attm. It is worth noting though that there could be a few showers around with MVFR conditions aft 00Z. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Possible MVFR conditions in isolated showers Sun due to the passage of a weak low pressure system and cold front. VFR Mon and Tue. Chance of showers on Wednesday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 615 AM Saturday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion follows: Weak high pressure centered over the Bahamas will keep winds light at 10 to 15 kts and south-westerly today with seas of only around 2 ft. A weak cold front will move across the waters overnight, turning winds to the W and NW at around 10 kts. Seas will remain in the 2 ft range. SHORT TERM/SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Saturday...Weak high pressure transiting the waters will keep winds light at only around 10 kts through much of the period, increasing a bit to 10 to 15 kts from the NE Monday night. Seas will remain right around 2 ft through the period. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM Saturday...High pressure building down the east coast from Canada on Tuesday will weaken and shift farther off the coast on Wed. May see a bit of spike in winds and seas early Tues as high builds down, but the NE winds up to 15 kts will shift around becoming more easterly and weakening by late Tues. The sea breeze should enhance the on shore flow Wed aftn, but overall expect E-SE winds 10 kts or less. Seas should spike up to 3 to 4 ft on Tues but overall 3 ft or less through most of the period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...31 MARINE...REK/RGZ

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