Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 131859 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 259 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will approach the area from the northwest today then stall and meander across the forecast region through midweek. Mid level riding will erode this front late in the week bringing a return to more typical summertime heat and humidity along with slightly lower thunderstorm chances. Another cold front will approach next weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Sunday...Convection this afternoon concentrated along the sea breeze front near the coast and along a stalled cold front oriented NE to SW west of LBT and FLO. Analysis of morning data and latest guidance show a moderately unstable and very moist atmosphere with severe weather unlikely but very localized flooding from training storms a concern for the remainder of the daylight and evening hours. High-Res data does show some filling in between the above mentioned lines of convection and this looks good given impending multiple boundry interactions. However, this same guidance also shows activity will mostly fade with the setting sun. For Monday, expect more of the same with the stalled front wavering in the area and a continued moist and moderately unstable airmass. Temperatures will show little change from recently experienced. Expect lows tonight in the mid to upper 70s, with highs Monday in the mid to upper 80s. Elevated dewpoints will give us heat index values of around 100F.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Sunday...The pattern we have seen the past several days will continue through the short term period. This consists of a moisture rich southwest flow featuring persistent precipitable water values over two inches. A weak boundary wavering around the area (mostly inland) will provide an impetus for convection along with the sea breeze and numerous outflow boundaries and differential heating. The highest pops, likely values, occur Tuesday afternoon with good chance and chance for the other periods. Tuesday`s highs will be in the upper 80s to near 90, depending on the convection with overnight lows pegged in the middle 70s for the most part.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Sunday...A return to summer heat and humidity occurs late week as the mid-level trough finally gives way to SE ridging. This ridge amplifies in response to a trough digging across the west, and will drive increasing thicknesses, and hence temperatures, into the Carolinas into next wknd. Despite this ridge expanding from the Gulf Coast, heights locally may be relatively lowered thanks to several weak impulses moving to the north in the zonal flow across the Mid-Atlantic. These subtly steeper lapse rates will combine with PWATs still above 2 inches, and strong instability thanks to highs into the 90s to keep the chance for showers and tstms in place each aftn/eve through late week, although with coverage likely less than we have seen much of August so far. By Saturday, a cold front will dig through the OH VLY and then stall in the vicinity causing renewed good chances for convection and slightly cooler temperatures. However, with the ridge overhead this front may entirely dissipate by the end of the period instead of lingering like many of our summer-time fronts so far this season.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 18Z...Tropical moisture will continue to stream over all the TAF terminals through the valid period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will be the primary concern for aviators in the near term. For the overnight hours good confidence that IFR cigs will develop over our inland terminals of FLO and LBT, with lesser confidence that these cigs will develop at ILM. Also moderate confidence that IFR vsbys will develop at FLO/LBT overnight. Extended Outlook...There is a greater chance of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility in showers and thunderstorms Mon through Wed as a stalled cold front meanders in area and another one moves in. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...High pressure over the western Atlantic will keep winds southerly in the 10 kt range through the period, with gusts up around 20 kts during the afternoon hours and near convection. Seas will range right around 3 ft, give or take a foot, through Monday. SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Southwest winds of 10-15 knots will persist throuigh the period. The speeds will lean moreso to the lower end of the range. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet with a general mix of a modest wind wave and swell component. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Broad high pressure offshore will exert its influence across the waters through late week. This creates SW winds through the period, with speeds only increasing above 10 kts on Friday in response to a cold front approaching from the NW. The prolonged fetch around the offshore high pressure will allow a 1- 2ft/9sec SE swell to persist through the end of the week, but this will become masked by an amplifying 5 sec SW wind wave, especially the latter half of the period. These 2 primary wave groups will create seas of 2-3 ft Wed/Thu, rising to 3-4 ft on Friday.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...REK MARINE...REK/JDW/SHK

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