Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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891 FXUS62 KILM 020243 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1043 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...KEEPING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ENDING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE JUST UPSTREAM OF OUR WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. THE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING TO THE ENE. THERE WAS ALSO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OUR SW AND S. WILL SHOW POPS INCREASING OVERNIGHT...FIRST ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION AND I-95 CORRIDOR AND THEN EASTWARD TO THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT THERE WILL BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...A HEAVY DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. DEEP SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS GEORGIA WILL DAMPEN AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AROUND DAWN. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE TO SMALL POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ELEVATED DEWPOINTS...CLOUDS...AND 25 TO 35 KT LOW-LEVEL JETTING WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL NIGHT. TEMPS WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM WHERE THEY ARE EARLY THIS EVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT...EVEN WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN CONUS. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF FACTORS COME IN TO PLAY...INCLUDING FAVORABLE UPPER WINDS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT...IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED MORE OR LESS ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT THAT BULK OF PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS AS THE PERIOD BEGINS WHILE ALOFT A MID LEVEL BLOCK WILL START SETTING UP. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THU...DRIVEN WELL OFF THE COAST BY LARGE 5H EAST COAST TROUGH/CUTOFF. THIS CUTOFF WILL FORM THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE BLOCK AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER LOWER MS VALLEY EXPANDS EAST. MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE LIMITED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH DEEP WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST FLOW PREVENT ANY MOISTURE RETURN. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WED-FRI CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED. IN ADDITION TO DEEP DRY AIR LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST SLOWLY EXPANDS EAST...WILL DROP NEAR CLIMO TEMPS WED BELOW TO WELL BELOW CLIMO THU THROUGH SAT. MID LEVEL RIDGING AND MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH EAST WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RETURNING NEAR CLIMO. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THUS HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MARGINAL MVFR/IFR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AOB 10 KT. ON MONDAY...VFR WILL CONTINUE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN ANY CONVECTION. SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AOB 10 KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON POSSIBLE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...S TO SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MODEST LOW-LEVEL JETTING WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT. MAINLY 3 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT WILL NOT LIKELY MAKE IT OFFSHORE BEFORE DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STAY SW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ALTHOUGH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ON TUESDAY MAY SEE WINDS BUMPED UP TO 15 TO 20 KT FOR A TIME IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR UP TO 5 FT SHOULD WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. PERIOD BEGINS WITH LOW/FRONT COMBO MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH WESTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE ON THU WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. PINCHED GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION THU NIGHT AND FRI WILL PUSH WEST WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. GRADIENT AND ADVECTION RELAX ON FRI AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND WINDS DROP TO 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WED BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT THU IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS. REDUCTION IN SPEEDS LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO SEAS FALLING TO 2 TO 3 FT FRI. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...III AVIATION...SGL

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