Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 251534 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1034 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...AND OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE WELL INLAND. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY ON THURSDAY...LEAVING SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT. A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND SOME ICE AS WELL. ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN LATE TODAY OR THIS EVE AND THEN AT LEAST MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR A TIME ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA LATE TONIGHT. LIQUID RAIN IS THE ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY AREA...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A CHILLY RAIN. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. TONIGHT...AS THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARRIVES...THE COLUMN WILL COOL. IT IS A DIFFICULT FORECAST. ALTHOUGH WE KNOW THERE WILL BE ICE IN THE CLOUDS...IF THE WARM NOSE EXCEEDS 0 DEG C FOR A SIGNIFICANT DEPTH...SNOW WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE GROUND BEFORE MELTING. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER WHICH WOULD KEEP ACCUMULATING SNOW TO A MINIMUM AND THEN ONLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR NW ZONES. THERE IS STILL A RISK FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA THU MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...HELPING TO BRING THE FREEZING LINE SOUTHWARD AND INTO PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVES DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY...AND THE CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. CENTER OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NC TO START THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL RAPIDLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTN. ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL ON WEDNESDAY...LOW-LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW 700MB WILL REMAIN INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS OF COURSE WILL NOT PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIP...BUT VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDINESS...WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY CAN SURFACE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING DURING THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD CREATE A FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPS REMAINING JUST ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE COAST...BUT DROPPING TO BELOW INLAND. FORTUNATELY...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RESIDUAL PRECIP IS NEAR THE COAST...AND EVEN IN THOSE PLACES THAT DO ENCOUNTER SOME -ZL WILL DO SO ONTO GROUND THAT HAS EXPERIENCED RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. LOCAL TOP DOWN METHODOLOGY PRODUCED A SHORT PERIOD OF -ZR/-ZL ACROSS THE COUNTIES ALREADY WITHIN THE WSW - SO EXTENDED THE WSW UNTIL NOON THURSDAY FOR SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH MAY ACCRETE UP TO 0.01 OR 0.02 INCHES...MOSTLY ACROSS ROBESON/BLADEN COUNTIES. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT DRY ADVECTION COMMENCES AND SKY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST. STILL...FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...A NICE BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER RECENTLY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AS THE CALENDAR APPROACHES MARCH. HIGHS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ONLY IN THE LOW 40S...A FULL 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH FRIDAY WILL BE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER OF THE TWO. LOWS AT NIGHT WILL ALSO BE VERY COLD...DROPPING WELL INTO THE 20S BOTH NIGHTS...BUT IN THE DRIER COLUMN FRIDAY NIGHT MINS WILL LIKELY BE 2-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED ON THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD AND DRY FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A WARMUP EXPECTED NEXT WEEK BUT ACCOMPANIED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EAST COAST DURING THE WEEKEND AS CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SE RIDGE DRIVES RISING SURFACE PRESSURE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BOTH LIKELY BE DRY DAYS...BUT NE FLOW WITHIN THE WEDGE WILL LEAD TO LOW CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT LIKELY IN A VARYING STATE. THIS SUGGESTS THE SUN WILL BE PRESENT AT TIMES. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL...SHOCKINGLY...REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEDGE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFFSHORE LEADING TO A DRAMATIC WARMING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THIS WARMTH WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNREALIZED AS UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AREA WILL DRIVE VORTICITY IMPULSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...OVERTOP A STALLED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HOVER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. OVERALL...THERE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED FORCING LOCALLY FOR PRECIP...BUT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH AT LEAST PERIODS OF SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY MONDAY/TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 12Z...EXPECT IFR WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/IFR LATER THIS MORNING...DETERIORATING AGAIN TO IFR LATER TONIGHT DUE TO LOW CIGS AND RAINFALL...ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS DEPICT LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR IFR TO PREVAIL. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/IFR AS A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. THIS EVENING...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND A RETREAT BACK TO MVFR/IFR WITH LOW CIGS AND LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAINFALL AND AREAS OF FOG. COLD TEMPERATURES AT THE INLAND TERMINALS COULD ALLOW FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION...BUT GIVEN LOWERED CONFIDENCE TO TIMING AND COVERAGE...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INTRODUCE ATTM. FOR THE COASTAL SITES...EXPECT ALL RAIN. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 15 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE...
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...FAST-MOVING SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE NE GULF COAST TO OFF THE SE U.S. COAST TONIGHT...AND TO THE WATERS OFF CAPE HATTERAS THU MORNING. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT FOLLOWS THIS STORM TRACK...PRODUCING INCREASING N TO NE WINDS. AS A RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM MID-EVENING THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THURSDAY...BUT THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN PINCHED THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT TERM. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL REACH OVER 20 KTS FIRST THING THURSDAY...BUT WILL EASE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTN TO BECOME 10-15 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE REMAINING FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE DOWN THE COAST ON FRIDAY...CAUSING RENEWED TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE SLOWLY...BECOMING 20-25 KTS ONCE AGAIN BUT FROM MORE OF A NE DIRECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE 5-8 FT...BUT WILL FALL QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE ONGOING SCA SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE LATE THURSDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT WILL RISE ONCE AGAIN TO 4-6 FT FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A RENEWED SCA MAY BE NEEDED. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY 20-25 KT NE WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS DRIVES WAVE HEIGHTS TO 4-6 FT...AND AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT...GRADIENT SLOWLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN. THIS CAUSES WINDS TO EASE TO 10-15 KTS BY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE REMAINING FROM THE NE. WINDS WILL EASE FURTHER AND THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH AS THE WEDGE DISSIPATES LATE SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS FALL ON THE DECREASING WINDS...FROM 4-6 FT LATE SATURDAY...TO 2-4 FT SUNDAY.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024. NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ087-096-105. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...SGL

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