Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 160237 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 937 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP FARTHER OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLY COOL AND FAIR WEATHER WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING WET CONDITIONS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP AND ARE NOW DOWN IN THE LOWER 40S MOST PLACES. FORECAST ON TRACK AS ADVERTISED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. NO CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. TEMPS RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER WITH THE ON SHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE TEMPS STILL IN THE 60S OVER MOST PLACES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON UNDER BRIGHT DECEMBER SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN OVERALL RISE IN MOISTURE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RISING THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOULD DECOUPLE NICELY THIS EVENING ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP OUT BUT WITH THE SLIGHT RISE IN MOISTURE AND WAA...SHOULD SEE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OVERNIGHT OR RISE TOWARD MORNING IF WINDS KICK UP AT ALL. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO DROP TO 35 TO 40 BUT SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 40 MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL KEEP FOG IN PLACES TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE ALIGNED UP THE EAST COAST TODAY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE RETURN IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT CLEAR SKIES MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MAY REACH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...DISCARDED INHERITED POP GRIDS AT 12Z TUESDAY WHICH BROUGHT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES AND I-95 CORRIDOR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...AND RE-ALIGNED CLOSER TO MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING...MAINLY AFT 18Z/1PM TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED/SCT SHRA. ONE ITEM OF NOTE...DEWPOINTS MAY NOT RISE ABOVE 50 DUE TO LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF FRONTAL TRANSIT. AS A RESULT...WITH AIR TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 60S...GETTING APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TO THE GROUND MAY NOT BE A GIVEN. THE LARGE T/TD SEPARATION DURING THE HIGHEST POP PERIOD MAY LEAD TO POCKETS OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LEADING TO MODERATE GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS AND LOCAL TEMP DROPS IN SHOWERS. NOT SURE HOW MUCH EXTRA MOISTURE THE SYSTEM CAN PULL AFTER CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS...BUT CURRENT HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THE FRONT ARE SCANT. POST FRONTAL BUT WEAK NW WIND FLOW AND WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWS THE DECAYING FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY...SO WEAK IN FACT THAT MANY OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BRINGS MAXIMUMS NEAR 60 WED AFTN WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-DECEMBER. BREEZIEST PART OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON EVENING SW 10-20 MPH BECOME W 10-20 DURING TUESDAY EVENING. FROPA AND THE FRONT A GOOD WAYS OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. CHILLIEST PORTION OF THE PERIOD ARE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES EARLY THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...PLEASANT DECEMBER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME VERY UNSETTLED DURING THE WKND. MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED THU/FRI AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE TYPICALLY THIS WOULD LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL HELP KEEP BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS AROUND TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO DURING THE END OF THE WEEK. BIG CHANGES THEN OCCUR FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SW AND MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...LIKELY SPAWNING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE EAST. THE ECMWF/GFS STILL DIFFER CONSIDERABLY...AND IN FACT SHOW EVEN MORE SPREAD THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE FAVORED, ALBEIT LIKELY A BIT SLOW, SOLUTION DUE TO ITS CONSISTENCY...AND IS FAVORED BY WPC. THIS WOULD BRING THE SURFACE LOW NEARLY OVERHEAD THE ILM CWA DURING SATURDAY...WITH A SIGNIFICANT OVERRUNNING EVENT BECOMING MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIALLY SOME MORE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL PRESENT...WILL NOT SPECIFY ANYTHING MORE THAN SHOWERS...BUT WILL BUMP POP TO HIGH-CHC SATURDAY...FALLING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. FORTUNATELY...NO P-TYPE ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED REGARDLESS OF STORM EVOLUTION. DRIER...BUT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR LATE WKND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 00Z...CALM WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KILM/KCRE AFT 02Z...AND ALL TERMINALS AFTER 06-08Z. DESPITE EXCELLENT VERTICAL PROFILE FOR DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE IS STILL LIMITED. THUS SHALLOW GROUND FOG...PATCHY DENSE...SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED...ESPECIALLY AT FOG PRONE SITES KCRE/KLBT. TEMPO IFR/LIFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR IF FOG DRIFTS OVER THE ASOS SENSORS. THIS WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SO IFR/LIFR SHOULD BECOME LESS LIKELY AS TURBULENT MIXING COMMENCES. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AFTER DAYBREAK. THERE COULD BE SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...BUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE SO HAVE KEPT VCSH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WED THROUGH FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN ON SATURDAY. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WITH SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. STILL EXPECT FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM TO PROCEED AS DETAILED IN DISCUSSION BELOW: WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A RELAXED GRADIENT FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE. AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS EAST WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE E-NE THIS AFTERNOON TO SE-S BY MORNING. WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY BY DAYBREAK IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A 1 TO 2 FOOT LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY GROUND SWELL PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT. BY MORNING AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP...A SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE WAVE SPECTRUM AS SEAS CREEP UP TO 2 TO 3 FT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS TO EXPERIENCE DETERIORATING TRENDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE 0-20NM WATERS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. 20 KT SW WINDS BECOME W 20 KT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE POSSIBILITY OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY HINGE ON WINDS ONLY SINCE SEAS MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO FULLY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT MAY BE THAT AN EXERCISE CATION STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED INSTEAD FOR 20 KT AND 4-5 FT SEAS OUTER PORTION. SINCE WE ARE 2 TO 3 PERIODS AWAY FROM THE EVENT WILL OPT TO LEAVE FOR 00Z DATA PACKAGE IN HOPES TO ADDITIONAL RESOLVE IN DETERMINING APPROPRIATE HEADLINE CHOICE OR NONE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT LOOSENS UP CONSIDERABLY...YIELDING LIGHT NW WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL REACH INTO THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY...PRODUCING NW TO NE WINDS INTO THE WKND. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELAXED HOWEVER...SO WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS BOTH THU AND FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT FROM NW THU TO THE NE BY FRIDAY AFTN. THEREAFTER...A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE W/SW AND MOVE JUST INLAND OR OVER THE WATERS DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT A TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WIND SPEEDS...WITH DIRECTIONS VEERING THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE COMPASS...AND CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...REK/RGZ SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MRR MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/RGZ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.