Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 221013 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 613 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front stalled near the coast will return northward this morning ahead of a strong frontal system approaching from the west. A series of storm systems moving across the Southeastern United States will bring an increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms this week. Conditions may be somewhat dryer toward the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Monday...Somewhat of a lower confidence forecast for the near term period as the guidance is showing decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms later today although the forcing doesn`t look overly impressive. A similar story for tonight as well. As precipitable water values increase through the period it appears the sea breeze will be the main forcing mechanism today. For later tonight, a good shortwave moves through the southwest flow aloft but misses our area just to the west. There is a front sneaking closer to our area from the west however. Overall I have jogged pops downward slightly. Daytime highs should be in the middle 80s area wide and overnight lows for Tuesday morning should be similar to this mornings values, barely dipping below 70 and not even that in some cases. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Monday...A broad upper trough will drive a slow- moving cold front across eastern CONUS during the short term, with the front moving across the eastern Carolinas on Wednesday night. A series of short waves rounding the base of the upper trough will combine with a relatively moist and boundry-rich airmass to make for an extended period of unsettled weather. Temperatures will hover around seasonal levels, with the warm SW flow being balanced somewhat by overcast conditions and period of precipitation. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Relatively narrow warm sector spreads into the area on Wednesday. The warm front early may bring some light rain but the approach of the cold front yield the more significant rise in POPs as well as the chance for higher rainfall amounts. Wind fields not quite as strong as previously forecast and instability should be limited by cloud cover so severe weather threat seems minimal. The main energy associated with the upper trough crosses Thursday but the deepest moisture will be well offshore by then. Even so, the strength of the main vorticity max should be able to wring out a few showers especially if breaks of sunshine provide some instability. Deep layer westerly flow will bring sunshine on Friday with much lower humidity levels that will recover slightly into Saturday. A healthy disturbance may come across in this zonal flow on Sunday bringing some minor rain chances. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 00Z Monday...Forecast challenge for today will be timing of convection which is likely to impact at least a couple of the TAF sites today. Current line of convection moving east across the eastern Carolinas moving slow and weakening. FLO and LBT seem clear for now but confidence in this is low. Better chance for convective impacts will be with the afternoon sea-breeze front. Extended Outlook...Reduced flight categories will be possible in periodic showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday. The strongest convective activity will occur Wednesday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Monday...A south to southeast flow is now back in place for the most part across the coastal waters. The flow will continue to pick up steam with speeds increasing from the current ten knots or so to 10-15 and even 15-20 very late in the period as a cold front approaches from the west. Significant seas will respond in time to the increase in winds from the current two feet to 3-5 feet late tonight. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Monday...Although there will be some fluctuations, the overall trend during the Short Term will be one of gradually increasing SW winds and building seas in advance of a slowly advancing cold front. The front will be over or near the waters in the early morning hours of Thursday, at which point we will likely see some loosening of the gradient and a bit of a decrease in winds and seas. Until then, though, it is likely that Small Craft Advisory conditions will be breached on Wednesday or more likely Wednesday night. Expect frequent period of shower and thunderstorm activity during this period also. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Broad swath of southwesterly flow in place on Wednesday between large Atlantic high and cold front approaching from the west. Winds may not ramp up to advisory levels but seas likely will. This boundary will turn the flow from SW to W by Thursday as well as a small decrease in overall wind speed allowing seas to abate below advisory thresholds. The circulation and gradient associated with the front will finally move east of the area by Friday as high pressure builds into Florida and the Bahamas. Locally wind will remain westerly and continue to abate. Seas will follow suit. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...REK MARINE...SHK/REK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.