Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 250710 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 310 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE RETREATING NORTH AGAIN FRIDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE NEAR THE FRONT. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY WHILE IN THE UPPER LEVELS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BECOME EVEN FLATTER AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN BUT WILL SPREAD A VEIL OF MAINLY THIN CIRRUS OVERHEAD TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD APPROACH 80 DEGREES INLAND WITH MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED FROM THE BEACHES TO ABOUT 15 MILES INLAND. WITH MARINE AIR TEMPS HOLDING IN THE 60S A MODERATE SEABREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP WITH COASTAL WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 15 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET ONLY WEAKLY INFLUENCING TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD FALL TO 55-60...WARMEST AT THE BEACHES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...IN A PATTERN THAT LOOKS ALMOST SUMMERLIKE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE NEAR BERMUDA WITH WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS STORMINESS REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ONE INTERESTING FEATURE IS A SURGE OF COLDER AIR ORIGINATING FROM ARCTIC CANADA THAT ENDS UP IN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS COLDER AIR SHOULD MAKE IT INTO VIRGINIA...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NC/VA BORDER. (NO MODEL SHOWS THE FRONT DIPPING THIS FAR SOUTH) VERIFICATION STATISTICS SHOW BOTH GFS AND NAM MOS HAVE SHOWN RECENT COOL BIASES AT ALL STATIONS EXCEPT FLORENCE. WE`LL CONTINUE TO APPLY A BIAS CORRECTION TO THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES ~2 DEGREES ABOVE A GFS/NAM MOS CONSENSUS. THE LACK OF A COLD BIAS AT FLORENCE MAY BE DUE TO IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED ACROSS FLORENCE FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A LOCAL MAXIMUM IN SOIL HEAT CAPACITY AND REDUCTION IN THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION ABLE TO BECOME SENSIBLE HEAT IN THE LOCAL BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS EFFECT MAY LAST ANOTHER DAY OR TWO BUT WILL LIKELY FADE BY WEDNESDAY GIVEN DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH OUR AIRMASS BECOMING MORE TROPICAL WITH TIME WE SHOULD GENERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY NEAR 1000 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT REMAINING TO OUR NORTH...THE SEABREEZE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE SANDHILLS MAY BE ABLE TO POP AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF THE FIRST AIRMASS CONVECTION OF THE YEAR!
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT JUST BARELY NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND LIKELY END ANY NON-DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY, IF ANY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOWEVER AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES RIPPLE ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS IS RATHER IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH GIVEN THE RATHER WEAK FORCING THERE SEEMS TO BE AT LEAST A MINOR FEEDBACK ISSUE. THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH A PREFRTONAL TROUGH SEEM TO SHUNT DEEP MOISTURE OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY LEAVING RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRIDAY FROPA LOOKING LESSER THAN BEFORE. NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST AFTER ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD COME DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEAKLY, MOSTLY SLIDING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST RATHER THAN PUSHING SOUTH MUCH. IN FACT THE HIGH ASSERTS ITSELF SO LITTLE THAT BY SUNDAY WE APPEAR TO BE BACK INTO RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND VORT-LADEN SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW BY SUNDAY. SUNDAY COULD TURN RATHER WET. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY WILL BE WARM AND RATHER HUMID WHEREAS MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON SUNDAY LIKELY OVERWHELMED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 06Z...SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE RECOVERY OCCURRED AT MAINLY KCRE/KMYR FROM ONSHORE FLOW THAT DEVELOPED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO CONTINUE WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THE OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE COLUMN SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KCRE WHERE LOCAL EFFECTS MAY ALLOW VSBYS TO TO DROP TO MVFR 08-12Z. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AFTER SUNRISE AND THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES THU/FRI. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. AIR TEMPERATURES OVER THE WATER SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT INLAND AIR TEMPS WILL SOAR TO NEAR 80. THIS TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE SHOULD DEVELOP AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WITH NEARSHORE WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 12-14 KNOTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RETURN TO AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET ARE LOCALLY 4 FEET IN THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY VICINITY WHERE SPECTRAL WAVE DATA INDICATES A 5-6 SECOND WIND WAVE PLUS A 9-10 SECOND NE SWELL. THIS SWELL IS LIKELY NOT BEING EXPERIENCED AS STRONGLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR DUE TO BLOCKING BY THE SHOALS AND THE LANDMASS. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TO NEAR BERMUDA TUESDAY...REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR DROPPING SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER LATE WEDNESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AND GRAND STRAND AREA AS THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP THIS FAR SOUTH. A PATTERN WILL DEVELOP WITH DAY/NIGHT WIND VARIATIONS DRIVEN BY THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY RETURN BY WEDNESDAY FOR ISOLATED T-STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...WESTERLY PREVAILING WINDS COULD PUSH THESE STORMS DOWN TOWARD THE BEACHES. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY AS THE AREA FINDS ITSELF BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A FRONT RETREATING TO OUR NORTH. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS FROM POINTS NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THIS COULD ADD A FEW KNOTS OF WIND SPEED. NO ADVISORIES OR EVEN CAUTIONARY HEADLINES APPEAR TO MATERIALIZE. THE FRONT WILL THEN SOON FOLLOW FOR A FRIDAY PASSAGE. WINDS WILL VEER ALL THE WAY TO NORTHEAST OR EVEN EASTERLY. THOUGH THIS WILL CERTAINLY CONFUSE AND STEEPEN SEAS THERE WILL NOT REALLY BE ANY SURGE IN WIND SPEED. AS SUCH DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ109- 110. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.