Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 260723 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 323 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the area today and persist into the weekend, bringing dry weather and increasing heat. A cold front will reach into the Carolinas early next week, moving off shore by mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 315 AM Friday...Progressive flow aloft this morning will gradually transition to weak ridging as 5h ridge over the Gulf of Mexico expands north. Ridge remains somewhat flat through the period but will cause flow aloft to transition from deep westerly flow to northwest flow by evening. Downslope flow and subsidence at the top of the expanding 5h ridge and in the wake of the exiting 5h trough will keep the region dry and mostly free of clouds through the period. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure centered over the Florida peninsula will expand north. This will maintain low level westerly flow. Forecast soundings do show some higher wind speeds at the top of the mixed layer which could surface during peak heating. Do not expect a lot of gusts but an occasional gust of 20 to 25 mph is possible. Downslope flow combined with sunny skies will produce highs 3 to 6 degrees above climo today, mid 80s. Deep westerly nature of the wind field will keep sea breeze pinned close to the coast. Lows will also run 3 to 6 degrees above climo, mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Friday...Warm SWly flow around the backside of a ridge over the western Atlantic will keep temperatures summer- like over the Memorial Day Weekend. Temperatures will peak at right around 90 both days, with lower to mid 70s at night. A dry Saturday may be followed by isolated to scattered convection on Sunday as a cold front drops south towards the area, with moisture and convective indices also becoming more favorable for activity. A consensus of guidance has the front just north of the CWA by daybreak on Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...The weather will becoming increasingly unsettled through the latter half of Memorial Day weekend. We will basically remain under the grips of high pressure to our south on Sunday with a warm and moist SW return flow. Aloft, the winds will be more westerly atop a ridge extending up form the Gulf of Mexico. Initially on Sunday, the ridge builds north with increasing subsidence and dry air aloft into the early afternoon, but the ridge flattens out as mid to upper trough digs down from the upper great lakes. This will push cold front closer to the area. There will be a general increasing potential for clouds and showers/tstms late Sun through mid week ahead of this slow moving front. It looks like the most widespread convection will come on Mon into Tues as the front gets a push south and east into and through the forecast area. Expect the surface front to make it just south by Wed, but it remains aligned SW to NE near or just south of area as a broad upper trough remains over the eastern CONUS. This front looks like it will remain close enough to produce unsettled weather over at least coastal portions of the forecast area through the remainder of the work week. Overall convection should be more localized Sun into Mon and become more widespread late Mon into Tues with a possible break on Wed as front moves south with continued convection mainly along the coast or south on Thurs. Mid level heights will continue to rise through Sun with GFS showing peak Sun aftn but remaining high through Mon. This will maintain very warm temps both Sun and Mon, crossing into the 90s most places. Max Temps will run in the 80s through the rest of the period dampened by clouds, and the moist air mass will keep overnight lows up around 70 most nights in a more summerlike air mass with a slight cooling as front passes through Tues night into Wed. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 06Z Friday...Deep west to northwest flow will maintain VFR conditions through the period. Westerly winds will occasionally gusts as high as 20 kt this afternoon. Extended Outlook...MVFR conditions possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms Sun through Tue. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 315 AM Friday...Small craft advisory continues for the next few hours. Seas near 20 nm still running around 6 ft but continued offshore flow should drop seas within 20 nm down to 5 ft or less by 6 AM EDT. Westerly winds today will slowly back to southwest this evening and overnight as surface high centered south of the area gradually shifts east. Although gradient weakens throughout the day speeds will be slow to fall below 15 kt as daytime heating leads to a slight increase in winds this afternoon. Seas follow a downward trend through the period ending up 2 to 3 ft by Sat morning. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Friday...High pressure over the western Atlantic will keep up a steady SW flow of 10 to 15 kts through the weekend. Afternoon winds near shore will gust up to around 20 kts as the diurnal sea breeze circulation sets up. Seas will run within a foot of 3 feet through the period. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday and Sunday night as a front drops down from the north. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...High pressure to the south will maintain a SW return flow 10 to 15 mph through much of the period. Seas will remain between 2 and 4 ft through the period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ110. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...REK NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...III MARINE...REK/III/RGZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.