-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 261641
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1140 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY AND BEGIN TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE...LOCKING THE COLD
AIR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. NO RISK OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
NEXT WEEK AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY ARRIVE AS WE
WELCOME IN THE MONTH OF MARCH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM THURSDAY...THE RISK FOR PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY...NO
ICING CONCERNS. THUS...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA HAVE BEEN
DROPPED.

LOW PRESSURE WAS INTENSIFYING OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NE...PASSING WELL OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SUBSIDENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...MORNING
SOUNDINGS AND MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LOW CLOUDS LOCKED IN
THROUGH THE DAY AND MORE OR LESS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME
DRIER AIR MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO REACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

BRISK NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS A FRESH
SNOWPACK TO OUR NORTH. THE CLOUDS AND INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE TODAY. WE ARE ONLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AREA MAY REACH THE
MID 40S LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD COMMONLY BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S...WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS
THE NEW GUIDANCE PACKAGE ARRIVES. ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON ROADAYS
AND WALKWAYS WILL FREEZE TONIGHT. BRIDGES WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE
TO ICING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...DRY BUT COLD FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS HIGH
DEVELOPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM THURSDAY...AND IS INTENSIFIED BY
PERSISTENT CONFLUENCE ALOFT. FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST A LOT OF
SUNSHINE FRI/SAT...BUT THESE STRONG WEDGES ARE FREQUENTLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NE FLOW...WHICH
MANIFEST AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THUS...WILL NOT BE AS OPTIMISTIC AS
THE GUIDANCE WITH SUNSHINE FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY HOWEVER.
THIS IS GOOD BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOLIDLY 15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY THE COLDER DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S ON FRIDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON SATURDAY WHEN SOME PLACES WON`T EVEN CRACK 40. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE SIMILARLY COLD...FALLING INTO THE 20S MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW MORE LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...PATTERN CHANGE DEVELOPS...FINALLY...AS BROAD
RIDGING ENVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
INTO HOW LONG THIS RIDGING WILL PERSIST...AND 2 SEPARATE COLD FRONTS
NEXT WEEK COULD QUICKLY BRING US BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT
FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC.

ONE LAST WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE WEDGE
SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL DEVELOPING
RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW...AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITHIN THE COLUMN. THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...BUT THE INHERITED
INCREASING POP SUNDAY NIGHT SEEMS WARRANTED. WARMER TEMPS MONDAY
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN A PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER SHOWER CHANCES THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVERHEAD. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE FLOW LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY BEFORE LIFTING
BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. THIS LEAVES TUESDAY AS THE BIGGEST QUESTION
MARK WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...BUT EXPECT JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS ON TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY ON RETURN FLOW AND CONTINUED MID-LEVEL RIDGING...BUT
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY. THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN
A THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE PAST 8 HOURS. LOOK FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WITH ALL
THE RAIN OVER THE REGION...THINK SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE. THE
WINDS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 5 KTS...SO HOPEFULLY NO WORSE THAN 5SM
VISIBILITY. FRIDAY...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH A NORTHEAST
WIND...GUSTY BY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH A WEDGE
SETTING UP.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS STILL
UNDERWAY WITH SEAS UP TO 8 FT AT THE MASONBORO BUOY THIS MORNING AND
10 FT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. THE WIND DIRECTION HAS BACKED FROM NE
TO N AND NNW AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO
PULL OUT...BUT STILL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 TO 30 KT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS PRODUCES
PERSISTENT N/NE WINDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE WEDGE BECOMES MOST INTENSE. SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KTS EARLY FRIDAY WILL RISE GRADUALLY...BECOMING STRONGEST
ON SATURDAY WHEN SPEEDS WILL REACH 20-25 KTS. VERY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AS THE WEDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN.
THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WHEN 4-6 FT SEAS WILL BE COMMON...AND AN SCA IS LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT BOTH BEFORE THE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS...AND AGAIN AFTER IT SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
WILL LEAVE EASING NE WINDS MUCH OF SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY VEERING TO
THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER
FURTHER TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT THEN SHIFT ABRUPTLY BACK TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL
HOVER AROUND 2-4 FT...BUT A NE WIND CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SPECTRUM
ON SUNDAY...WHILE A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL