Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 200724 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 324 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BRING A CHILLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...AN EARLY NIP IN THE AIR WILL BE FELT THIS MORNING BUT SUNSHINE RIGHT OFF THE BAT WILL BEGIN WHAT WILL BE A LARGE WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES. CHILLY UPPER 30S WILL SETTLE IN OUR RURAL COLD-POCKETS INTO DAYBREAK...WITH LOW AND MIDDLE 40S MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO A CRISP...COOL AND CLEAR SUNRISE AND BUS STOP WAIT. A 30-35 DEGREE WARM-UP TODAY HOWEVER MAY CAUSE MANY FOLKS TO ACCIDENTALLY LEAVE THE JACKETS AT WORK OR SCHOOL...AS A MODERATING CONTINENTAL AIR MASS AND RETURN WIND FLOW BOOST OUR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. EVEN NEAR THE COAST THE MILD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT NEAR EQUAL MAXIMUMS. TONIGHT OCEAN STRATO-CUMULUS WILL TRY TO ROTATE ONTO SHORE IN SYNC WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY DRY ABOVE 7 KFT DESPITE AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY TRIP OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS CONVERGENCE AND BUOYANCY INCREASE OVER THE WATERS. A FEW OF THESE MAY GRAZE OUR COASTAL ZONES FROM SW TO NE INTO VERY EARLY TUESDAY. MINIMUMS TUESDAY DAYBREAK AROUND 10 DEGREES MILDER COMPARED TO THIS MORNING DUE TO ESTABLISHED/PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT REMAINS ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON NO QPF OVER THE LAND AREAS WITH ONLY A LIGHT SMATTERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. REGARDING TEMPERATURES I DID ADJUST HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUESDAY VIA GUIDANCE AND MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN JUST A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE AS WELL.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE MOVE SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE A VERY SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AT THE MID LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST THEN EXPAND WEST TO EAST TO BASICALLY COVER A GOOD PART OF THE CONUS. STILL NO REASON TO ADD ANY POPS TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS STABLE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WARMING UP INTO THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND. A SIMILAR TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S EARLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 06Z...AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LIGHT AND THERE IS EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...A SE-S RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL FOR AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN SCATTERED CUMULUS. HOWEVER BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS BY EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...DECAYING GONZALO BACK-SWELL IS WEAK BUT REGISTERING AT LOCAL BUOY PLATFORMS...WAVE PERIODS HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN LINE WITH THE NATURAL WAVE DECAY. THE OTHER PORTION OF WAVE ENERGY IS WEAK AND TIED TO WIND-SEAS/CHOP AS NE-ENE WINDS HOLD AT 10 KT OR LESS. A TRANSITION DAY TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFFSHORE AND WINDS TURN AROUND FROM THE SOUTH. WIND-SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 12 KT OR LESS FROM THE S OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO WEST 4-9 KT AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLIPS ACROSS THE COAST. NO CAUTION STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS MOST OF TUESDAY FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS AND MORE OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH SCENARIO IS IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS BY 0600 UTC WEDNESDAY AND WINDS WILL PICK UP STEAM FROM THE NORTHEAST. DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY WARM WATERS WILL MAXIMIZE CONVECTIVE MIXING AND EXPECT ABOUT 12 HOURS OF 15-20 KNOTS BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE MINIMAL TUESDAY 1-3 FEET...INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 1-4 FEET WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALTHOUGH ABATING...CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BE THE STORY FRIDAY AS WELL WITH WIND SPEEDS HOVERING A LITTLE LOWER AROUND TEN KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MJC/MRR MARINE...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.