-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 120742
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
342 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. HOT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA
WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH ILL DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN AND ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD INLAND BUT OVERALL IMPACT ON VISIBILITY SHOULD BE
LIMITED AS DRY AIR SLOWLY FILTERS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

WHAT REMAINS OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TODAY WILL LINGER ALONG OR JUST
OFF THE COAST. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST BUT THE MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT
FROM PAST DAYS. EASTWARD EXPANSION OF MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL INCREASE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DRYING OUT THE MID LEVELS.
HEIGHT RISES AND INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 90S
AWAY FROM THE COAST. DESPITE WARMER TEMPS THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE/MID LEVEL DRYING WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO AT MOST 20% OR SO. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT FIRST DEVELOPS AND THEN STARTS TO PUSH
INLAND. FARTHER INLAND SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WILL HAVE A HARDER
TIME SUSTAINING AS IT MOVES INTO STRONGER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.

ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING LEAVING CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS UNDER 5 KT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO CONDITIONS
IDEAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS LOWS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY DURING THE
SHORT TERM...BUT OVERALL A DRIER AND SUNNIER FEW DAYS THAN WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED RECENTLY. WHILE THE 500MB FLOW BEGINS TO TREND TOWARDS
ONE OF HIGH-AMPLIFICATION...THIS WILL NOT OCCUR LOCALLY UNTIL THE
END OF THE PERIOD...AND THUS RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH RETURN FLOW
AROUND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE A NICE FEW DAYS ACROSS THE
ILM CWA. SUNDAY WILL BE THE DRIER OF THE TWO...AS EXCEEDINGLY DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR HELPS KEEP PWATS AROUND 1.25 INCHES...AND EXPECT ONLY
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM DURING THE AFTN. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE AREA REMAINS DRY DURING SUNDAY. CONTINUED RETURN
FLOW AND THE BEGINNING OF SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL CAUSE
INCREASING POP CHANCES FOR MONDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT ONLY TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION. VERY LATE MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
AND THUS PRECIP MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF MONDAY WILL FEATURE TYPICAL CAROLINA
SUMMERTIME WEATHER.

TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID 90S WELL INLAND...WITH 90 DEGREE
HIGHS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT ON THE BEACHES. MONDAY WILL FEATURE
MAXIMUMS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AS THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MINS BOTH NIGHTS WILL
BE HELD ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT WHILE
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 70S...MONDAY NIGHTS LOWS WILL
LIKELY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S EXCEPT WELL INLAND.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL LOAD ACROSS
CANADA AND DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...IN A PATTERN THAT IS
QUITE ATYPICAL FOR MID-JULY. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS TROUGH...PROGGED TO BE NEAR -3 SD`S IN INTENSITY...WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY ROTATING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. WHILE THIS WILL KEEP THE TROUGH
POSITIVELY TILTED AND THUS MAINTAIN RELATIVELY HIGHER THICKNESSES
LOCALLY...TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...POSSIBLY WELL BELOW BY THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH VERY EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN STALL IN THE
VICINITY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL CREATE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
HIGH POP WITH VERY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LIKELY. WHILE SPC IS
HIGHLIGHTING THE REGION JUST NORTH OF HERE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...THERE IS AT LEAST SOME RISK ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES INTO THE CWA...DUE TO THE VERY SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS
DIFFERENCES. THURSDAY MAY BE A BIT DRIER AS SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT BY FRIDAY...ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH THE LOWEST CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED INLAND AT KFLO/KLBT.
CALM WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S ALL PROVIDE
A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH FOR AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS AFTER 06Z...
WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR INCREASINGLY LIKELY INLAND. HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED TEMPO IFR FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS BEFORE 12Z. ONCE THE
FOG/STRATUS CLEARS...VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY. LIGHT E-NE
WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME S-SE AOB 10 KTS BY AFTERNOON. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS DURING THE
DAY...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. VFR WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VRB.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM SATURDAY...REMAINS OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO
THE AREA TODAY WILL DISSIPATE BY AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS
AND BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHEST WINDS BEING DRIVEN BY THE SEA BREEZE. EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST BUT DEVELOPMENT
OF SEA BREEZE WILL VEER TO WINDS TO SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS MUCH ABOVE
10 KT ARE NOT EXPECTED...EVEN NEAR SHORE. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT THIS
MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO 2 FT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF ONSHORE FLOW.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL VEER TO
BECOME SW ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE BECOMES THE DOMINANT
SYNOPTIC FEATURE. WHILE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE ONLY AROUND 10
KTS...THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS WILL DRIVE WINDS UP TO 20
KTS MONDAY...HIGHEST LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS INITIALLY WILL BE AROUND
2 FT...BUT AS WINDS VEER TO THE SW AND INCREASE LATE SUNDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 4-5 FT...AND
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...POTENT COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST INLAND
FROM THE WATERS THROUGH MID-WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WILL CREATE A PINCHED GRADIENT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...WITH SW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS REMAINING MOSTLY UNCHANGED
BOTH DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-5 FT TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WINDS EASE A BIT AND SEAS FALL TO 2-4 FT
LATE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...III/BJR
MARINE...III/JDW