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096
FXUS62 KILM 260706
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
306 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Temperatures will remain above normal for the next several days
but not as hot as the past few. Thunderstorms will favor the
afternoon hours and only be isolated to widely scattered.
Wetter weather will precede a cold front next Tuesday and
Wednesday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The ridging that had produced the significant heat earlier in the
week continues to lose strength today. At the same time a 5h
low will drift north along the length of the FL Peninsula.
Temperatures remain above normal today, but the heat and
humidity won`t be quite as extreme as it has been. No plans for
any heat products today with heat index coming in under 105F
across the forecast area.

Forecast soundings still show an atmosphere with a fair amount of
instability. Mid-level lapse rates are not nearly as explosive as
they were on Wed, barely exceeding 6C/km and there is a lot of dry
air above 15k ft. Despite these limitations think there will be some
storms that are able to develop this afternoon. Warm temps and
dewpoints around 70 will keep SBCAPE over 2k J/kg with pockets of
SBCAPE in excess of 4k J/kg. The sea breeze will once again help
develop convection and there are likely to be left over surface
boundaries as well as the potential for differential heating from
lingering debris cloud. There may also be a bit of weak PVA arriving
during the early to mid-afternoon hours associated with the 5h low
over FL. Can see hints of this on water vapor imagery north of the
Bahamas as a band of broken clouds that emanates from the upper
low. Confidence is a good bit lower than yesterday with respect to
storm coverage given the aforementioned limitations/slightly less
favorable environment, hence have chance pop for the area today.
Storm motion will be more of an east to west today vs the unusual
north-northeast to south-southwest seen on Wed.

As previously mentioned temps above normal continue today and
tonight, but by a paltry 3-5 degrees as opposed to the 10+ degrees
the last few days. Rain chances come to an end once diurnal storms
end or push west of the forecast area this evening. Leaving mostly
clear skies overnight. Light winds may allow for some patchy fog,
depending on how much rain falls today, but not expecting
significant fog issues.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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The upper low from the short term dissipates over the weekend
leaving behind light flow through most of the column. Once again
thunderstorms will be focused along and just west of the seabreeze.
Afternoon highs will remain elevated a few degrees above normal and
pinpointing favored locales for convection will be tricky given
forcing being limited to the mesoscale and storm motion slow
and erratic. Changes start taking shape Tuesday into Wednesday
with the approach of a surface cold front and mid level trough.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The upper low from the short term dissipates over the weekend
leaving behind light flow through most of the column. Once again
thunderstorms will be focused along and just west of the seabreeze.
Afternoon highs will remain elevated a few degrees above normal and
pinpointing favored locales for convection will be tricky given
forcing being limited to the mesoscale and storm motion slow
and erratic. Changes start taking shape Tuesday into Wednesday
with the approach of a surface cold front and mid level trough.
-- End Changed Discussion --
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High confidence in widespread VFR anticipated into Thursday
afternoon before some brief storm related MVFR/IFR may become an
issue. Low level moisture may lead to brief periods of MVFR fog
at any of the terminals pre-dwan, but wind/mixing should keep
duration of MVFR at any one site brief.

Light westerly flow this morning will come back around to
south-southeast during the day with somewhat enhanced speeds
along the coast due to the sea breeze. Anticipate another round
of afternoon/evening storms, but with coverage less than seen on
Wednesday. Not anticipating much of an impact for the coastal
terminals with storms moving from east-southeast to west-
northwest this afternoon. Convection that develops along the sea
breeze will move inland and the coastal terminals will be east
of the sea breeze by the time storms can develop. Carrying
PROB30 for FLO/LBT given limited coverage and some uncertainty
with respect to the actual timing of storms. Combination of
storms moving west and decreasing instability late in the day
will bring an end to storms around 00Z.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR with brief MVFR/IFR possible in
the afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...

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South to southwest winds across the waters today and tonight with
enhancement to 10-15 kt in the afternoon in response to the sea
breeze. Strength of the southerly flow remains a little more
elevated tonight than it has during past nights due to a slightly
stronger gradient between the more defined Piedmont trough and the
Bermuda High. The extended duration of 10-15 kt winds will allow 3
ft seas to creep into the outer waters later in the forecast period.
The uptick in winds and the increased duration will keep the
southerly wind wave dominant over a southeast swell.

Friday through Monday... Our most common summertime marine winds
expected through the period as flow remains out of the SW due to the
Bermuda High. The southwesterly wind waves will dominate early on
but the SE swell energy will increase late in the period.
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&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...ILM
MARINE...ILM