-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 062359
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
659 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY. CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A DAMP AND GREY WEEKEND. MONDAY WILL BRIEFLY
TURN WARMER AGAIN BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 7 PM FRIDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY WARM EVENING CONTINUES WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S MOST EVERYWHERE AS WE REMAIN FIRMLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. NO CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH THE NW PORTIONS OF AN
UPPER RIDGE IN A PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WAS RESULTING IN 80+ DEG
TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR ZONES THIS MID
AFTERNOON...PLACING SEVERAL RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR DECEMBER
6TH IN JEOPARDY.

THE FORECAST REASONING GOING INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
REMAINS UNCHANGED...WE WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MILD AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH DAYBREAK WHERE ANOMALOUSLY WARM MIN
TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 60S...AND FOR MANY LOCATIONS THIS IS
MILDER THAN THE AVERAGE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR EARLY DECEMBER.

DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSOLVE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT LOW-LVL
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN HIGH. A NOCTURNAL JET ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT MAY SUPPORT INCREASING LOW-BASED STRATUS CLOUDS. MID-LVL
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BOTH INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT AFTER 9Z/4AM. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...DROPS SE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 9-10Z/4-5AM. THE RESULTING LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE WILL WARRANT MENTIONABLE POP VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD OVER OUR INTERIOR WEST AND NORTHWEST ZONES INTO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

ALSO OF NOTE...A BATCH OF SHOWERS OFFSHORE OF SC IS MAINTAINING A
TRAJECTORY IN THE PRESENT STEERING FLOW THAT COULD CLIP THE CAPE
FEAR REGION OR JUST PASS TO THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING...FOR THIS
REASON WE WILL INTRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN BRUNSWICK
AND SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER COUNTIES AN HOUR EITHER SIDE OF 0Z/7PM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING NWRN ZONES AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD...MAKING FOR AN INTERESTING TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. FIRST OFF...THERE SHOULD BE A LARGE GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPS
SINCE NWRN ZONES WILL NOT WARM MUCH FROM NIGHTTIME LOWS AS THE COOL
AIR PUSHES IN EARLY. ASSUMING THE PREFRONTAL REGIME ALLOWS A FEW
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE THEN COASTAL/SOUTHERN LOCATIONS SHOULD WARM UP
NICELY FOR A FEW HOURS. SECOND...EXPECTING SOME FAIRLY DRAMATIC
FALLING TEMPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...MOST PRONOUNCED OVER NWRN ZONES.
IN FACT THE BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN QUITE A GRADIENT IN TEMPS FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. THE MID LEVELS REMAIN
RATHER DRY THROUGH FROPA KEEPING RAINFALL AMOUNTS RATHER LOW. ON
SUNDAY THE SURFACE WEDGE REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WHILE JUST ABOVE
THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASES. THIS LEADS TO
GOOD OVERRUNNING SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE MAIN BAND OF LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY GETS PUSHED TO OUR NORTH BY THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW...PROBABLY DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AS THE DAY WEARS ON. EVEN
SO...SUNDAY TO HAVE A VERY WINTRY FEEL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
AROUND 50...IMPRESSIVE FRONTAL INVERSION IN FCST SOUNDINGS WITH
ABOUT A 600FT CLOUD DECK EXPECTED ALL DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE WEDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY MONDAY.
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND ADVECT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CWA ROUGHLY
12Z-18Z TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
WARM FROPA. MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SUGGEST MID 70S WILL
BE WITHIN REACH.

MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS BOTH A LITTLE FASTER AND
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT CONSENSUS IS FROPA WILL OCCUR DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE MAX TEMP
FORECAST...SO WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY
ADVERTISING...LOWER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 60S SOUTH. PRECIP WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S WED-FRI BUT REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMO.

A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN THE MODELS ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A SMALL POP ALONG THE COAST. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE
THE SURFACE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE FRIDAY COULD LEAD TO THE
ONSET OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIP FOR INTERIOR SC ZONES LATE IN THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 00Z...11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MAINLY CIRRUS MOVING
ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH PATCHY MVFR LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ALONG THE COAST. STRATUS AT 500 FEET HAS DEVELOPED AT KCRE PER SFC
OBS. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEA STRATUS/FOG AT KCRE
THIS EVENING. SEA FOG/STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF KMYR BASED ON SW
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. IFR/LIFR STRATUS COULD SPREAD TO KILM SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT ATTM EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MVFR. AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SW-WSW. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KCRE COULD
IMPROVE BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS THE SEA FOG/STRATUS IS SHUNTED TO
THE EAST. AT KFLO/KLBT VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO MVFR CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

POST FRONTAL WEDGE STRATUS EXPECTED AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS
IN FROM THE NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON TIMING OF FROPA. CONFIDENCE
IS ALSO FAIRLY HIGH POST-FRONTAL CIGS WILL BE IFR. WILL INDICATE
MVFR VSBYS IN POST-FRONTAL -RA/BR. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON...BUT COULD RISE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD
AS THE FRONTAL INVERSION RISES SLIGHTLY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH
INTERMITTENT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER THIS
EVENING...WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS AND SW WINDS IN THE 15 KT RANGE FOR
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AWAY FROM THE INSHORE SHELF WATERS...SW WINDS HAVE AMPLIFIED
OFFSHORE...WITH THE FRYING PAN BUOY NOW REPORTING 5 FOOT SEAS AND
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 15-20 KT. THE COOLER MARINE LAYER
NEAR-SHORE WAS RESULTING IN ALMOST HALF THE WIND SPEEDS...AS
MIXING TO THE SEA-SURFACE REMAINS PARTIALLY SUPPRESSED.
ADDITIONALLY...VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM SPACE SHOWS A FOG BANK STILL
PREVAILS OFFSHORE OF WINYAH BAY AND ANOTHER AREA OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES BANKED UP AGAINST THE BRUNSWICK INSHORE WATERS.

DUE TO DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS AWAY FROM THE INSHORE
WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
ARE PLANNED FROM 6PM-6AM BOTH NC/SC WATERS. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL
BE DOMINATED BY BUILDING S WAVES IN 6-7 SECOND INTERVALS. WINDS
FROM THE SW 10-15 KT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSE TO SHORE BUT 15-20 KT
BEYOND 5NM. A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT OFFSHORE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NO
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH DAWN SATURDAY...BUT A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD IMPACT THE CAPE FEAR
REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON LEADING TO A SHARP VEER IN THE WINDS. CONFUSED SEAS
WILL BUILD AND MAY REACH 6 FT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT OUT
ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS AS WELL AS FAR REACHES OF GTOWN WATERS.
HORRY COUNTY ZONE MAY FALL SHORT DUE TO LANDMASS WAVE SHADOWING.
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER LAND KEEPING
WINDS OUT OF THE NNE. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO EASE ESPECIALLY LATTER
HALF OF THE DAY. ANY ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE LOWERED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...EXPECT THE COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT TO BE
MAKING ITS WAY INLAND AT THE START OF MONDAY WITH A PREDOMINATELY SE
FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW DURING THE DAY AND
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE TIME OF FROPA ON TUESDAY...BUT IT
APPEARS THE DAY WILL START WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH A SHIFT TO NNW
EXPECTED BY AS SOON AS EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
TO 20-25 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE FALLING OFF TO 15 KT DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/REK/CRM