Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 310716 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY NEXT WEEK. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE COAST THIS MORNING AND THEN STALL AS IT BECOMES INTERTWINED WITH THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT...A FEW SHOWERS WERE ONGOING JUST UPSTREAM OF THE PEE DEE EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHER SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER HAVE DISSIPATED WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. ALONG THE COAST...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE COLUMN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOPPING 2.25 INCHES. FOR OUR INLAND LOCATIONS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO TOP 2.25 INCHES AND WILL BE HIGH INTO THE MID AND LATE EVE HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SAT. IN ADDITION TO FRONTAL LIFT AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PIVOT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVE HOURS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO OUR N OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST...IN BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND A HOT RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN GENERALLY LEADS TO UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WE ARE EXPECTING CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WILL CARRY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE CENTERED AROUND THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL BE LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WE ARE EXPECTING LOWER HIGHS THAN ON THU. THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION TODAY...HIGHS IN MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. SOME OF THE BEACHES WILL NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO 90 TODAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TYPICAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF JULY...LOWER TO MID 70S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED IN THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE HARD TO PICK OUT AT TIMES. DAILY SEA BREEZE WILL MASK THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEAST ONCE DAYTIME HEATING GENERATES THE SEA BREEZE. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE WORKING AGAINST CONVECTION. THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP MOISTURE JUST OFF THE COAST ALL WEEKEND...SOME OF WHICH WILL TRY AND MOVE ONSHORE FROM TIME TO TIME. BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING WILL BE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS SAT...BEFORE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID LEVEL NORTHWEST PUSH IS ABLE TO MOVE THE MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE. WILL CARRY SLIGHTLY HIGHER POP FOR SAT COMPARED TO SUN...THOUGH BOTH DAYS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHC CATEGORY. IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE AREA...ONE SAT AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ON SUN. THE PROBLEM FOR BOTH WILL BE THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF MOISTURE. WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY/FRONT COULD BE ENHANCED BY THE PASSAGE OF SUCH FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING MON INTO TUE WILL BRIEFLY MAKE WAY AS 5H RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY...ALONG THE COAST...SLOWLY DISSIPATES. PROXIMITY OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE COAST AND PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WARRANTS CHC POP MON WITH HIGHEST VALUES AT THE COAST. RIDGING TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST TUE INTO WED WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR LEADING TO A REDUCTION IN PRECIP CHANCES. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID LEVEL DRYING WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MS VALLEY WED ERODES RIDGING ALOFT WHICH IS REPLACED BY TROUGHING WED NIGHT INTO THU. DEEP MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL TROUGHING COMBINED WITH HEATING AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES AS THE PERIOD ENDS. ALTHOUGH HARD TO TIME 7 DAYS IN THE FUTURE THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVE ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION ON THU. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TO END THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...RADAR WAS SHOWING SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS INLAND ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA AND STALL OFF THE SE COAST TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCAL AREA FOR CONVECTION. FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IT WILL IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS DIRECTLY. VFR EARLY TODAY WITH SOME MVFR LATER IN CEILINGS AS CONVECTION FIRES UP. AS THE WEAK FRONT CLEARS THE COAST LATER TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL DRIFT N OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS TO THE COAST AND STALLS...REMAINING WEST OF THE WATERS. SW TO WSW WINDS WILL DOMINATE...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS MORNING WITH A FRONT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...UP TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS UP TO 4 FT WILL BE MORE COMMON LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A MAINLY WEAK 8 TO 10 SECOND SE SWELL WILL PERSIST. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WEAK FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP THE WIND FIELD LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. DURING THE DAY...AS THE SEA BREEZE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KT. AT NIGHT THE FRONT WILL TRY AND MOVE OFFSHORE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...5 TO 10 KT. SEAS AROUND 3 FT SAT WILL RUN 3 TO 4 FT ON SUN. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...FRONT STALLED JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST MON MORNING WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY AS BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES THE DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURE. SOUTHWEST FLOW MON CONTINUE ON TUE WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT...SLIGHTLY HIGH NEAR SHORE DUE TO SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 5 FT POSSIBLE NEAR 20 NM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE AND FULL MOON WHICH OCCURS TODAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS 1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. HOWEVER...THIS CYCLE...EVEN THE BEACHES HAVE A SMALL RISK. HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IS ABOUT 800 PM AT THE BEACHES AND ABOUT 1030 PM IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IF COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...RJD/MAC TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.