Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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521 FXUS62 KILM 250651 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 251 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level ridge of high pressure will allow for warm temperatures and minimal rain chances through most of the upcoming seven days. At the surface there will be a light onshore flow. A tropical disturbance in the Bahamas will cross Florida over the weekend and may need to be watched for a turn up the East Coast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Thursday...Satellite animations show well the upper ridge west of the region sending occasional high-based debris clouds south into the Carolinas. In the low levels, a few cumulus clouds offshore can be seen in the IR channel tracking to the SW skirting the coast. KLTX radar picking up isolated, landward moving showers 15-35 NM offshore. As diurnal instability over the waters reaches peak into daybreak, a few raindrops could visit the coast from Bald Head Island to Surf City through 10 AM. Shower development this afternoon along the sea breeze boundary in Georgetown county is possible but not enough for a mentionable pop value at this time. Afternoon heat driven cumulus can be expected across NE SC and SE N . Maximums this afternoon 86-89 near the coast and 89 to 92 inland. Dewpoints in the 60s will keep the heat indices from climbing much beyond the air temperature. Overnight, the minimums will fall to around 70 for most areas by daybreak Friday, a bit milder by the coast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Thursday...Primary weather highlights this period are maximum temperatures a few degrees above normal, small rain chances, and a fairly comfortable air mass as dewpoints hold in the lower 70s compared to middle and upper. Over-lap of peak heating and inland convergence could pop an isolated TSTM Saturday afternoon when moisture deepens slightly. Otherwise mainly fair this period with heat induced cumulus both days. Lows will become a bit milder this period and by early Sunday minimums in the middle 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 AM Thursday...Models struggling right off the bat with the start of the long term period. Strong mid level ridge still likely in command but models now interestingly try to retrograde an upper impulse our way out of the messy remnants of Fiona and stalled front well off the coast. GFS and older EC imply this feature to be of little consequence locally but the Canadian has a strong surface reflection and could imply rain though it keeps it all north of here. For now have maintained warm temps and isolated POPs of continuity especially since the latest EC barely shows it at all. Assuming all of the aforementioned the upper ridging will maintain warm temps and minimal POPs through the period. Towards the midweek we may start dealing with some moisture associated with tropical disturbance AL99. The surface pressure pattern remains quite poorly defined through the long term with just a general light onshore flow. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 06Z...VFR through the period. FM groups only to reflect some veering of the wind (turning clockwise) later today. The sea breeze may cause this earlier at coastal airports while high ridge retreating from the Carolinas does the same a few hours later at inland terminals. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Possible early morning VFR due to patchy fog through Monday, otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Thursday...No advisories this period, although expect seas to remain a bumpy 2-3 feet in a mish-mash of short-period waves from the ENE-SE between 4 and 8 seconds. A weak ESE swell around 11 seconds remains in the mix. No hazards this period. A few showers this morning will move toward land between Surf City and Bald Head Island, and an isolated waterspout cannot be ruled out, but no TSTMS expected today or tonight. Winds will veer to SE today over the waters but will decrease in speed tonight, as high pressure weakens. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Thursday...Great pair of boating days as winds ease, to a light onshore flow. Seas between 2-3 feet, and longer wave periods may begin to emerge in the spectrum by Saturday. Isolated marine showers may be expected in the mornings this period but they will remain widely separated. No advisories or hazards noted this period. Slight stronger inshore winds in the afternoon due to the sea breeze both Friday and Saturday. LONG TERM/SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 AM Thursday...A very weak pressure gradient making for some very light winds even by Summer standards through the long term. Wind waves will obviously be minimal. There will be an increase in swell energy however associated with Gaston, the extent of which will hinge upon the yet uncertain strength and size of the hurricane. WNA guidance shows the main swell front arriving Sunday evening. We may have to increase wave height forecast for Monday but for now it shows the main increase in wave height staying to our north. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MBB

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