Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 260544 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 144 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...PASSING WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP MID AND LATE WEEK...WITH MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 1:30 AM TUESDAY...DRY AND COOL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH A STEADY NELY FLOW IN PLACE. TEMPS TO FALL TO 62-67...COOLEST NORTH...IN A DRY AND CLEAR COLUMN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ABATE LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL WILL BE MOVING TO THE NE...HUGGING 70 DEG WEST LONGITUDE AS IT MOVES NORTH OF OUR LATITUDE TUE NIGHT AND WED. NO DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THE CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED. EXPANSIVE RIDGE ALOFT TO OUR WEST WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE AREA WED AND WED NIGHT AND THIS WILL BRING RISING HEIGHTS...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND TEMPS MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT A FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE MANAGE TO BRUSH THE COAST ON TUE...BUT THE RISK IS VERY SMALL. WILL CALL FOR AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR SOME STRATOCUMULUS WHICH MAY BRUSH THE COAST TUE AND TUE NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TUE AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON WED. ALONG THE COAST...THE SEABREEZE SHOULD HOLD TEMPS TO THE MID 80S WED AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S TUE NIGHT AND MAINLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WED NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THE FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST NOW SHIFTS TO THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD DEVELOP. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY . A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE SLOWLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A MORE MOISTURE LADEN SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS WELL. THERE IS A BACKDOOR FRONT STILL IN THE PICTURE FOR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE ACTUAL FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BUMP THE TEMPERATURES BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. REGARDING POPS...VALUES INCREASE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY TO LOWER CHANCE BY MONDAY. THIS PRIMARILY OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING FROM JUST UNDER AN INCH FRIDAY TO WELL ABOVE TWO INCHES MONDAY. TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND CLIMATOLOGY LEANING TOWARD A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FOR THE MOST PART. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. VFR WILL PREVAIL AS FEW/SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. GIVEN INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...CONTINUE TO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT..ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT LIGHT...BRIEF-LIVED...PATCHY FOG INLAND. ON TUESDAY...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 12 KTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD EXPECT VFR WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS FRI. INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SATURDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1:30 AM TUESDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW 4 TO 6 FT SEAS WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR THIS PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS INTO TUE NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SIGNIFICANTLY WED AND WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 20 KT TUE... BECOMING 10 KT OR LESS BY WED AFTERNOON. THE DIRECTION WILL BE NE TUE...BUT WILL SLOWLY BACK TO NNE OR N TUE NIGHT. THE DIRECTION WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING WED AS THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION DOMINATES. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 TO 6 FT TUE...SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT BY WED AFTERNOON. A 10 TO 12 SECOND SE SWELL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...VERY LIGHT WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DIRECTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE SEA BREEZE BACKING THE DIRECTION EACH AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST. ALL SPEEDS ARE WITHIN A COUPLE OF KNOTS EITHER SIDE OF TEN KNOTS. BENIGN SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 1-3 FEET.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE COAST...WITH THE AXIS JUST INLAND FROM THE SHORE. THIS LEAVES THE WATERS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE HIGH...AND TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL NEAR THE BAHAMAS...PRODUCING PERSISTENT AND STRONG NE WINDS LOCALLY. THESE NE WINDS ARE PUSHING WATER TOWARDS SHORE...AND LOCAL TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING +1 TO +2 FT TODAY. THESE ANOMALIES WILL RISE ON TOP OF A NEW-MOON ENHANCED ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING...TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG ALL EAST FACING BEACHES. HIGH TIDE IS AROUND 8PM THIS EVENING...AND MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS MAY BE EXCEEDED FOR ABOUT A 1 HR WINDOW BOTH SIDES OF HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS AGAIN BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST FACING BEACHES OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION...AS WELL AS THE ENTIRE GRAND STRAND OF SOUTH CAROLINA. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056. NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250- 252-254-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RJD NEAR TERM...REK/TRA/JDW SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...REK/SGL MARINE...REK/TRA/JDW/SHK TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...99

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