Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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312 FXUS62 KILM 220235 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1035 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... The cold front that passed to our south will continue to dissipate as high pressure builds into the area and a piedmont trough develops to our west Friday. Temperatures will surge back above normal for the weekend, with the possibility of showers and thunderstorms increasing early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 1030 PM Thursday...No additional changes are necessary to the forecast. The last of the diurnal convection is dead and inland winds are diminishing toward calm. Visibilities may begin to drcrease inland toward daybreak where moisture content of the boundary layer is highest, but fog isn`t anticipated to be an issue. Discussion from 730 pm follows... The last puffs of diurnal convection are ongoing along the seabreeze front northwest of Georgetown. Look for this activity to die down over the next hour as the boundary layer begins to stabilize. With no upper level disturbances upstream there is little reason to expect any additional showers or storms overnight. Forecast lows have been tweaked down just slightly east of I-95 due to very light winds anticipated in a reasonably dry airmass for this time of year. Discussion from 300 PM follows... Convection as was anticipated is struggling with drier air and the the weak inversion aloft at 550 mb. A few convective towers tried to develop along the sea breeze earlier but struggled mightily. Current visible satellite is showing cumulus development in the counties of Darlington, Florence, Williamsburg, Georgetown, Marlboro, and Marion. But as of 3 PM nothing is developing over the southwest area but areas farther to the south and west where conditions are better convection is firing. Thus will keep a slight chance of thunderstorms for the area mentioned above. Overnight, skies will be mostly clear and lows will fall into the lower 70s inland and the middle 70s at the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...High pressure will continue to build over the region. Temperatures will slowly increase and low-level moisture increases also with the high pressure dominating the region. The heat indices will increase through the period with values at or above 105 degrees away from the coast on Saturday and Sunday when heat advisories are expected to be posted for portions of our area. On Saturday the Piedmont trough develops and there will be an slight increase in chances for thunderstorms. Focus for the convection will be along the sea-breeze front and farther to the west with the differential heating of the Carolina Sandhills. Highs on Friday will range from the upper 80s at the beaches to 94 inland. On Saturday, highs will range from the upper 80s on the beaches to 96 inland. Low temperatures will be in the middle 70s each night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Upper level ridge holds on over the Carolinas through early next week before breaking down a bit as a northern stream system moves east and upper level low tracks west from the Atlantic south of the ridge. The main ridge extending in from the mid west will retreat westward and weaken over the southeast but the atlantic ridge will build westward by Tues into mid week next week. The northern stream shortwave will drive a cold front south and east as it tracks across the Great Lakes into New England Monday into Tuesday. This front may reach down into North Carolina come next Wed/Thurs time frame as it gets stretched out from west to east as ridge builds in from east and flattens out. Overall, Bermuda High and Piedmont trough will be the main players in forecast at the sfc, much of the week. The s-sw flow around the Bermuda High will keep a more warm and humid, unstable air mass in place with more in the way of localized convection along sea breeze and trough inland, expected most of the week with not too much in the way of upper level support as ridge holds on. GFS/ECMWF both show an upper level low breaking off from trough to the east over the atlantic and tracking westward...but it should remain to the south of the upper ridge Mon into Tues and should just act to displace one ridge as another builds in. The influence of upper ridge will help to keep above normal temperatures especially Sun/Mon as ridge extends almost directly overhead with limited convective activity. By mid week, the influence of the front to the north and retrogression of ridge extending in from the Midwest should increase chc of convection and clouds across the area which may shave a few degrees off the max temps. Right now, it looks like heat advisory thresholds will continue to be reached Sun through Mon and possibly into Tues over most of the area. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 00Z...Potential for periods of MVFR/IFR/LIFR associated with fog early Friday morning. Otherwise VFR through thIS TAF valid period. There is high confidence of VFR at the terminals through midnight. Afterwards there is an increasing chance of MVFR vsbys, mainly inland terminals. In the pre-dawn hours patchy dense fog will develop near the inland terminals. Since the fog will be patchy there is low confidence of occurrence. Winds will decrease to light and variable this evening and remain so through the overnight hours. around mid-morning winds will become southerly 5-10 kts, highest at the coastal terminals. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Brief periods of MVFR/IFR from isolated afternoon convection Saturday through Tuesday. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 PM Thursday...No significant changes are needed to the forecast this evening. Light southerly winds will veer more offshore very late tonight with a landbreeze circulation. Discussion from 300 PM follows... The front has dissipated and winds are now northeast off the coast and southeast to south as the sea- breeze circulation is now well established near the coast. Wind speeds are still at 5 to 10 knots and seas are running around 3 feet. The buoys are still detecting the 2.5 to 3 ft ground swell with a period of 9 seconds from the southeast along the coast. Do not anticipate a change overnight in the sea heights. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...As the high pressure becomes established the light and variable winds will shift to the southwest by Saturday. Winds speeds will increase from the 5 to 10 knots to around 15 knots by Saturday afternoon. Seas will be 2 to 3 feet on Thursday and increase to 2 to 4 feet by Saturday in response to the increased southwest winds. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...South to southwest winds will continue around the Bermuda High. Winds will generally stay in the 10 to 15 kt range with a slight spike in late aftn into early eve, enhanced by the sea breeze and piedmont trough. Seas will remain 3 ft or less with a continued 8 to 9 sec E-SE swell mixing in.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...TRA/DRH SHORT TERM...DCH/DRH LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MRR

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