Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 262305 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 605 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BRING INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN RETURNING BY SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW YEAR. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6 PM FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPANDING IN SIZE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. AT THE SURFACE THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH A SLIGHT SENSE OF EXPANSION TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLIER THERE HAD BEEN SOME CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE BUT EVEN THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL THUS READILY RADIATE TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM FREEZING OVER NWRN ZONES TO AROUND 40 FOR MOST OF THE SC COAST. A GOOD NIGHT TO CATCH A NICE PASS OF THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION GOING FROM THE NWRN SKY AT 631PM...PASSING RIGHT OVERHEAD A FEW MINUTES LATER AND THEN "SETTING" IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SKY BY 635 PM...ALL BEFORE IT GETS TOO CHILLY OUT. EVEN THE MOON WILL BE COOPERATIVE...ITS CRESCENT PHASE MINIMIZING LIGHT POLLUTION. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...BEAUTIFUL LATE-DECEMBER WEATHER TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY. LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SE FLORIDA COAST WILL MAINTAIN ITS PRESENCE ON SATURDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES IN PLACE INTO THE CAROLINAS. SLOW-MOVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BENEATH THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY...SETTING UP WARM/MOIST RETURN FLOW THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A VERY NICE DAY LOCALLY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS WARMING TOWARDS 65 AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. LATE SATURDAY CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST...FIRST IN THE FORM OF CIRRUS DEBRIS...AND THEN LOWERING THANKS TO DEEP SW FLOW SATURATING THE COLUMN. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE JUST WEST OF THE AREA...CAUSING AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES...AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THETA-E RIDGE NUDGES TOWARDS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS WEAK...AND TOTAL FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK...SO QPF WILL BE MINIMAL...AND LOW-CHC POP IS ALL THAT IS WARRANTED. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STAY ELEVATED DUE TO CLOUDS AND WARM SURFACE FLOW...DROPPING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. SUNDAY IS AN INTERESTING DAY AS PRECIP MAY BE ONGOING FIRST THING IN THE MORNING...AND THEN SHUT OFF FOR A TIME IN THE AFTN. THE MORNING PRECIP WILL BE RESIDUAL RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND DEEP SW FLOW...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY SHUT OFF IN THE AFTN AS SUBSIDENCE PROMOTES DRYING THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE COLUMN. LATE SUNDAY HOWEVER...PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...DRIVEN BY A DAMPENING SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IMPULSE. ONCE AGAIN...THE THETA-E RIDGE REMAINS WEAK...AND JET-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE STAYS DISPLACES WEST OF THE CWA...BUT THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN PWATS RISE TO 1.25 INCHES. WILL BUMP POP TO LOW-END LIKELY IN THE FAR NW ZONES...AND MAINTAIN INHERITED HIGH-CHC ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AFTER A WARM MORNING LOW AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS WILL RISE TO NEAR 70 IN THE AFTN...WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID/UPR 50S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MONDAY STARTS OUT WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE CAROLINAS. AMAZINGLY BOTH EXTENDED MODELS GFS AND EUROPEAN DROP THIS FRONT ACROSS THE FA DURING MONDAY...TO SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA BY TUESDAY B4 STALLING. MODELS DO EYE A WEAK MID-LEVEL S/W TROF THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE SE STATES WITHIN WSW-ENE FLOW ALOFT. THE 2 MODELS THINK THAT DURING THIS TIME FRAME A WEAK SFC LOW COULD DEVELOP FROM THIS S/W ON THE FRONT PRIOR TO EXITING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. DYNAMICS REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE WITH THIS UPPER S/W TROF...AND NO REAL TAPPING OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE JUST LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THUS WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW CHANCE SIDE THRU TUESDAY PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH OF THE FA. MAX/MIN TEMPS PRIOR TO THE CFP ON TUE WILL RUN UP TO 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR TUE THROUGH THU...MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO REMAIN SPLIT...WITH ARCTIC FLOW COMING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NE STATES. AND FOR THE ILM CWA...MID TO UPPER FLOW WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WSW-WNW. HOWEVER...A 1050+ MB HIGH WILL SLIDE OUT OF CANADA MON TO THE TX GULF COAST BY WED. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ENABLE SOME OF THIS MODIFIED COLD AIR TO FILTER ACROSS THE FA BY WED THRU THU. MAX/MIN TEMPS FOR WED AND THU WILL ACTUALLY BE RIGHT AT THE CLIMO NORMS. IT WILL SEEM COLDER DUE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LEADING UP TO THE MID-WEEK COLD AIR. NO POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED. A WEAK RESULTANT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST ONCE THE TEMPERATURE HITS 57 DEGREES OR SO. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOG TOWARD MORNING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN RETURNING SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY. VFR TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...VERY QUIET BOATING WEATHER CONTINUES ALTHOUGH A WARM COAT ADVISED ALONG WITH LIFE VESTS. HIGH PRESSURE VERY NEARLY OVERHEAD TO KEEP WINDS AND SEAS AT JUST ABOUT A BARE MINIMUM. A LIGHT NE FLOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT WIND DIRECTION EARLY ON AS THE HIGH SITS OVER LAND BUT ITS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT EXPANSION SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO START THE PERIOD WILL MIGRATE OFFSHORE SATURDAY...AND THEN PUSH FURTHER EAST DURING SUNDAY. THIS ALL OCCURS WHILE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...SO WHILE THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK MOST OF THE WKND...IT WILL BEGIN TO PINCH LATE ON SUNDAY. NE WINDS THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BEFORE TAKING UP A SW DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALL OF SUNDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE JUST 5-10 KTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...RISING TO 10 KTS OR A BIT HIGHER SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE PERIOD REGARDLESS OF WIND DIRECTION...BUT WILL BE CHOPPIEST LATE SUNDAY AS THE WINDS INCREASE. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MONDAY TO START OUT WITH SW-W FLOW AT 10 TO 15 KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE. SCEC TO POSSIBLY SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AFTER ITS PASSAGE...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT THRU THE REMAINDER OF TUE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL MAINLY BE A COMBINATION OF A 1-3 FOOT NE GROUND SWELL AT 11-13 SECOND PERIODS...AND LOCALLY PRODUCED 2 TO 4 FT WIND WAVES AT 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. PCPN REMAINS POSSIBLY AHEAD AND DURING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...DCH AVIATION...DL

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