Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 262322 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 722 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure offshore will bring a warming and drying trend into the weekend. A weakening and lingering cold front will bring a chance of showers or a thunderstorm late Thursday and Friday, with temperatures remaining warm. Inland areas may see temperatures of 90 degrees or higher Friday and Saturday afternoon. A stronger frontal system will bring a chance of rain early next week followed by high pressure for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...A fair and mild overnight period with increasing southwest winds in the low-levels slated, as an H6-H7 ridge slips offshore this evening and bolsters surface high pressure there. Southwest winds up 25 KT as low as 500 feet AGL expected after midnight, should put the kabash of fog and mist development despite the damp ground and clearing skies. Local RH time-height plots show moisture values appear too low to support widespread stratus. As a result a mostly clear overnight period is anticipated. The low-level and coastal breezes will spell a very mild night with elevated minimums of almost 70 at beaches, with low and middle 60s inland. This is about 10 degrees above normal for late April. Warm air advection will bring maximums Thursday well into the 80s Thursday afternoon with a mild start and even upper 80s well inland under plenty sunshine minutes. As approaching surface trough accompanied by a slight deepening of moisture will bring a few showers near I-95 late in the day but likely still too dry aloft for sea breeze activity closer to the coast. The land vs SST differential will drive a hearty sea breeze circulation, so gusts to 25 mph along the coast in the afternoon is bound to occur, and though less, gusty inland as well. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Cold front just reaching into the western Carolinas Thurs eve basically gets weakened by ridge both at the sfc and aloft which builds back westward keeping a stronghold over the southeast through Fri and into the weekend. Initially the gradient will tighten between Bermuda High pushing in from the east and cold front approaching from the west, producing breezy conditions. Looks like any convection will weaken as it makes it into central Carolinas, but will include a slight chc of convection into Thurs night. This should move east and fade away by morning but soundings show enough instability to support mainly iso convection into Fri with best chc north and west of I95 later Fri aftn. Strengthening upper ridge will produce height rises up 591 dam by Fri night. Warm and moist southerly flow combined with height rises and increased subsidence and dry air aloft will produce temps well above normal. Expect temps both Thurs and Fri night well into the 60s to near 70 many places especially along the coast. High temps Fri will reach well into the 80s with many spots reaching 90 inland. Overall very warm period. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Surface and mid level high pressure just off the east coast will maintain deep southerly flow Saturday and Sunday. However, subsidence on the periphery of the ridge aloft should keep diurnal convection to a minimum. Cannot rule out an isolated sea breeze shower but any activity would be short lived and very isolated. Temperatures will be above to well above normal. Surface and mid level ridge start to weaken and drift east Mon, allowing a cold front into the region. Front moves across the area Mon night, likely accompanied by some convection. Although the parent low will be over the Great Lakes (along with the bulk of the dynamics) there are still at least a few signals pointing to some potential for strong/severe storms ahead of the front. Strong low level jet will be in place along with modest divergence aloft and potential for PVA as shortwaves rotate around the base of the trough. Confidence is low at this point as timing and instability remain in question but is something to keep an eye on. Front moves off the coast early Tue with high pressure building in from the west during the day then shifting overhead Tue night before moving offshore Wed. Flow aloft will remain west to southwest Tue and Wed as dry air and subsidence help dry the region out with temperatures running near climo. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 00Z...High confidence VFR through the TAF valid period for all terminals. Extended outlook...Isolated MVFR from spotty showers Thursday night and early FRI. Thereafter, VFR through Sunday. Periods of IFR/MVFR in showers/stratus Monday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...A moderate chop will develop tonight as SW winds increase to 15 KT with a few higher gusts likely. This as high pressure becomes stronger offshore. Seas of 4 feet can be expected overnight in a mix of SE waves 2-3 feet every 8-9 seconds and 1-2 foot wind-waves every 4-5 seconds from SSW to NNE. No showers or TSTMS expected overnight or Thursday over the 0-20 NM waters. Thursday will remain a bit bumpy due to 15-20 KT S-SW winds and seas round 4 feet, a cautionary headline cannot be ruled out if seas offshore reach 5 feet. Dominant wave periods will transition from 8-9 seconds to 4-5 seconds late tonight, persisting through Thursday as winds remain elevated. A strong sea breeze Thursday afternoon will bring isolated gusts in excess of 20 KT inshore in the mid afternoon to early eve. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Cold front just reaching into the western Carolinas Thurs eve basically gets weakened by ridge both at the sfc and aloft which builds back westward keeping a stronghold over the southeast through Fri and into the weekend. Southerly flow at 10 to 15 kt will increase late Thurs as gradient tightens between high pressure to the east and cold front approaching from the west. These S-SW push up to 20 kts will drive seas up to 4 to 5 ft and possible a few 6 fters in outer waters probably just beyond our local waters after midnight Thurs night into early Fri. Seas will subside through Fri down to 2 to 4 ft by evening and remaining 4 ft or less into Sat morning. Seas will spike up in afternoon sea breeze and back a little near shore Fri aftn. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Bermuda High will maintain southwest flow through much of the period. Speeds 10 to 15 kt Sat into Sun start to increase late Sun as gradient becomes more defined. Cold front approaches from the west as the surface high shifts east. Speeds increase to 15 to 20 kt Sun night and peak at 20 to 25 kt Mon with low level jet approaching 40 kt. Seas around 3 ft Sat into Sun will start building Sun night, approaching 8 ft on Mon. Headlines may be required as early as Sun evening. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...III AVIATION...REK MARINE...MJC/REK/III/RGZ

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