Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 182211 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 513 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance may bring some light showers tonight. Warmer temperatures during the weekend should last through next week. Dry weather during the first part of next week may be interrupted as low pressure passes to the south spreading some clouds and possible showers into the Carolinas during the second half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Convection lifting across GA and western SC this afternoon will result in only minimal PoP for the forecast area through late afternoon and this evening. Any that holds together would likely only impact the southern and western-most portions of the CWA, resulting in QPF on the order of a couple of hundredths at most. The mid-level shortwave driving the precipitation will shift east from western TN/KY to the Carolinas overnight, and the most prominent vorticity center will ride across southern GA along the base of this trough. The associated weak surface front will bring a wind shift after midnight, but little chance for significant rain for us because the front and mid-level dynamics won`t link up until the system is well off the coast. Overnight lows will remain well above normal, bottoming out around 50 inland to low/mid 50s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Time-height cross sections indicate rapid drying early Sunday as winds throughout the column shift quickly to the northwest. The mid-levels will remain quite dry through the period as a mid/upper ridge transitions from the central plains states on Sunday to the eastern seaboard by late Monday night. Mainly clear skies Sunday will start to become filtered by cirrus on Monday and through Monday night, but the period will remain precip- free. There will be some cool advection in the 1000-850 mb layer Sunday behind the front as low pressure strengthens offshore, and this should result in max temps a few degrees cooler than Saturday. As heights rise on Monday, temperatures should bounce a few degrees, though light onshore flow should keep them in check along the coast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Medium range guidance continues to point to a very warm and mostly dry scenario for the eastern Carolinas through the period. Overall the mid level pattern is one of west to east with the exception of a closed mid level system trudging very far south through the Gulf of Mexico and out in the Caribbean. This system will have little to no affect on the region. Regarding surface features, high pressure to the north will be the dominant player with a weak coastal trough developing Wednesday and hanging around through Friday. This prevents the forecast from being totally dry with low chance to slight chance pops for these days. A more significant system approaches from the west next weekend. For temperatures its mostly highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s beyond a slightly cooler Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 00Z...An upper vort will try to rotate through the area, however the HRRR model keeps dissipating the precip as it tries to enter the CWA. Will keep the current VCSH in place with only a sprinkle possible. A 5k ceiling is a bit pessimistic, but we should see ceilings lower after midnight. Some MVFR fog is possible after 08Z, confidence mod/low. Sunday, northwest flow on the backside of the surface low pressure, scattered skies. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR conditions are expected. Chance of showers Wednesday and Thursday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Southwest flow will continue across the waters until after midnight, resulting from surface high pressure off the east coast of FL. A wind shift will accompany a weak frontal passage after midnight, but wind speeds are expected to remain generally less than 15 knots, with seas 2-3 feet. Scattered convection will also be possible, mainly after midnight associated with the frontal passage. SHORT TERM/SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Offshore flow Sunday will veer to the northeast Monday as a large area of high pressure extends southward across the Mid-Atlantic. Although low pressure will develop well off the SC coast Sunday, it will progress eastward rather quickly and the gradient winds across the coastal waters are expected to remain 15 knots or less through the period. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Expect northeast winds Tuesday on the order of 10-15 knots. By Wednesday the gradient weakens considerably with more of an east to southeast flow developing. The sea breeze will become more of a factor both Wednesday and Thursday. The weak gradient will only produce wind speeds of ten knots or less. Significant seas quite unimpressive through the period as would be expected with the light wind fields with 2-4 feet Tuesday followed by 1-3 feet Wednesday and Thursday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...CRM SHORT TERM...CRM LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...43

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