Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 240727 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 327 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain warm and dry weather through today. Hurricane Maria is expected to move northward a couple of hundred miles east of Cape Fear Monday through Wednesday. Hazardous boating conditions, strong rip currents, and high surf are all expected to develop. A cold front is expected to reach the area Friday, bringing cooler weather for next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 300 AM Sunday...Forecast area will remain between mid-level ridging over the Mid-Atlantic states and 5h low over the eastern Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes region will expand south as it drifts east. Dry air aloft remains present and combined with mid-level subsidence should once again keep the region dry through the period. Expect to see some clouds along the sea breeze, but the dry air will keep cumulus that develops low topped. Varying amounts of cirrus will move across the area today and tonight with forecast soundings suggesting the cirrus decks will be based around 25k ft. Much of it should be thin but it is still likely to have a small impact on temps. Highs will once again run above climo but a degree or two cooler than Sat, generally mid 80s with a few upper 80s inland. Lows will also continue running above climo with readings in the mid 60s for much of the area.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday...All eyes will be focused on Hurricane Maria, moving northward across the western Atlantic on Monday. After making some precipitous shifts westward over the past couple of days, this morning`s new model runs seem to have stabilized on the idea of Maria moving northward along 73.5-74.0 degrees west longitude which would keep the center of the hurricane about 220 miles east of Cape Fear at its closest approach. The upper air pattern on Monday will feature a closed 500 mb high over the Great Lakes, the Bermuda Ridge well offshore, and the rapidly weakening remnant upper low of former Hurricane Jose in between. As Jose`s low dissipates, the two ridges will bridge together. This large "wall" of high pressure should stop Maria from accelerating out to the northeast as so many western Atlantic storms do, and instead will cause a much slower north- northwestward motion toward the Gulf Stream off the Carolina coast. Given the current track and intensity of Maria, we`re forecasting N/NE winds to reach 15-25 mph with some 30 mph gusts both Monday and Tuesday, highest along the coast. Moisture should remain fairly limited this far west of the storm`s center and we`re only forecasting 20-30 percent rain chances near the coast Monday night into Tuesday, with virtually no chance of rain for the I-95 counties. There are still some model ensemble tracks that would give us much higher winds and rain chances, and this situation continues to bear watching. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...the big question will be how far offshore will Maria stay. The latest global models continue to show the center of Maria slowing down and staying just offshore Cape Hatteras middle of next week. A trough of low pressure will pick up Maria and carries it out to sea by late next week. At the surface a cold front will move into the eastern Carolinas and offshore by Friday. Cooler temperatures and drier air will move into the region for Saturday. At this time only a chance of showers is expected on the western fringe of Maria during mid-week. With the best chances along the coast mainly north of Little River, SC. There will be a slight chance of precipitation late Thursday and Friday. High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be in the middle to upper 80s but as the front approaches maximum temperatures fall into the lower 80s Friday and the upper 70s on Saturday. Low temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s to around 70 Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Lows Friday are expected to fall into the lower to middle 60s. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 05Z...Development of MVFR or IFR visibility restrictions is looking a little less likely at this point. KLTX 88D VWP showing 20-25 kt at 1k ft and all reporting surface sites have winds 4-7 kt. Latest guidance also shows boundary layer winds twice as strong as last night. These factors should keep fog from being an issue and low level dry air should be enough to prevent development of a BKN/OVC stratus deck. Thus will carry VFR at all sites through daybreak. Skies will remain mostly clear today with only FEW/SCT low topped cumulus along the afternoon sea breeze coupled with thin patches of cirrus from time to time. Northeast winds continue today with speeds in the 10 to 15 kt range this afternoon with potential for gusts along the coast. Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR in fog and stratus possible during the early morning hours on Mon. Brief MVFR conditions may develop at the coastal terminals as Hurricane Maria brings isolated showers Tue-Wed as it moves N, with its center remaining offshore. N winds may increase to 15 to 20 kt at the coastal terminals Tue-Wed. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday...Northeast flow will continue through the period as surface high over the eastern Great Lakes builds south. The gradient between the surface high and Hurricane Maria, steadily moving north-northwest, will result in a slow but steady increase in wind speeds through tonight. Winds increase from a solid 15 kt this morning to 20 kt this afternoon and 20 to 25 kt overnight. Seas will continue to increase as swell from Maria continues building. Seas currently 4 to 7 ft will build to 6 to 10 ft late in the period. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday...All eyes will be focused on Hurricane Maria, moving northward across the western Atlantic on Monday. After making some precipitous shifts westward over the past couple of days, this morning`s new model runs seem to have stabilized on the idea of Maria moving northward along 73.5-74.0 degrees west longitude which would keep the center of the hurricane about 220 miles east of Cape Fear at its closest approach. Assuming this track is correct and assuming the model`s depiction of Maria`s wind field is correct, tropical storm-force winds could remain just outside of our coastal waters in the Cape Fear and Grand Strand areas. Northeasterly winds should back around to the north on Tuesday with wind speeds generally in the 20-30 knot range, highest near and north of Cape Fear. It`s worth bearing mind that any significant shift westward in Maria`s track would bring 35 knot winds into the Cape Fear coastal waters. What is completely certain is that exceptionally large swells generated by Maria will move through the coastal waters Monday through Tuesday. Wave heights of 6-9 feet south of Cape Fear and 8-12 feet north of Cape Fear are currently in our forecast. Peak swell periods around 14 seconds imply extremely long wave lengths. These waves will begin to feel bottom in fairly deep water, and breaking waves will occur miles from shore in some spots. Breakers should occur along the entire length of Frying Pan Shoals even 30 miles from shore! It`s situations like these that have earned us the name "Graveyard of the Atlantic." LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Winds will shift to the northwest on Wednesday. Seas are expected to range from 5 to 9 feet north Cape Fear and drop down to 4 to 6 feet south of Cape Fear on Wednesday, subsiding on Thursday as Maria moves away from the area. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
SC...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for SCZ054-056. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for SCZ054-056. NC...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for NCZ106-108-110. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ106-108-110. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252- 254-256.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...DRH AVIATION...III MARINE...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.