Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 192328 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 628 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will migrate across the Southeast through the weekend shifting off the coast by early next week, bringing with it a warming trend with continued dry weather. A cold front accompanied with scattered showers will move across the area and offshore Tuesday. High pressure will follow and affect the area thru Friday with temperatures at or slightly above seasonable levels. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH Saturday/... As of 315 PM Friday...Mid level flow through the period will be of low amplitude. At the surface high pressure well to our west will drift east slightly. Above the surface layer weak high pressure will be centered over Florida and the Bahamas. Locally this thermal advection neutral to very weakly warm. Tonight`s lows will be quite seasonable whereas tomorrow`s highs close to 60 area-wide will represent a 4-5 degree deviation above climatology. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM Friday...Weak surface high over the western Atlantic will remain the main surface feature through the period. Weak southern stream shortwave will move east over the northern Gulf of Mexico Sat night and Sun, moving off the FL coast Sun night. This feature may end up increasing mid and upper level moisture over the forecast area early in the weekend. Cirrus may linger over the area Sat night before skies clear out for Sun. Weak shortwave ridge builds over the Southeast late in the period as the shortwave exits to the east. Digging 5h trough over the western plains Sun will lead to an increase in southwest flow aloft which may advect some thicker cirrus over the region as the period ends. Temperatures will be around 5 degrees above climo overnight with high running closer to 10 degrees above. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 315 PM Friday...A relatively quiet work week anticipated. Models are in decent agreement in taking an upper closed low located over the central U.S. on Monday, and lifting it NE to the Eastern Great Lakes. The sfc low will follow the same general path, however it`s associated cold front will push across the FA during Tue. The FA will see highs in the 60s both Mon and Tue along with breezy conditions especially on Tue. Models indicate High pressure will then follow Wed thru Fri with temperatures at or slightly above climo norms. Flow aloft during the Wed thru Fri time line will prevent the cold air over Canada from dropping this far south.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 00Z...VFR/SKC this TAF valid period. Winds in TAFs are average for the entire period. Actual wind speeds will be below 7 kt 00-14Z, and 7-11 kt after 14Z. Extended Outlook...VFR. Possible MVFR/SHRA late Mon/early Tue.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 315 PM Friday...West to southwest winds expected through the period with high pressure remaining to our west and only moving slightly eastward. The broad swath of light offshore winds along most of the east coast will keep seas in the 2-3 ft range. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM Friday...Weak high pressure centered just southeast of the waters during the period will maintain weak gradient and light winds over the waters. Flow will be from the south with speeds under 10 kt through the period. Seas around 2 ft Sat night will run 2 ft or less Sun and Sun night. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 315 PM Friday...The highlight for this period will be a CFP slated for Tue morning. Weak onshore flow Mon will increase and become SW Mon night into Tue ahead of the cold front. After FROPA early Tue, winds will veer to the W and NW and then slowly abate by Tue night and continuing into Wed as the center of high pressure approaches from the Gulf Coast States. SCEC conditions likely late Monday into Tue with SCA at this point a possibility. Significant seas 1 to 3 ft Mon will build to 3 to 5 ft with a few 6 footers possible late Mon night into Tue. As winds become offshore, W to NW, on Tue, seas will actually subside due to a shortened fetch. Wind driven waves at 4 to 5 second periods will dominate Mon into Tue. By Wed, seas will run 1 to 3 ft thruout with a small ESE ground swell dominating.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...DCH AVIATION...MRR

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