Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 182329 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 628 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will gradually built into the Carolinas through the weekend, bringing a warming trend and dry weather. By early next week temperatures will be above normal. A cold front will bring increasing rain chances late Monday into Tuesday. Slightly cooler temperatures will follow this front, but are expected to remain at or above seasonable levels. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...One last very cold day ongoing presently, but a warm up is on the horizon! Arctic cold front from last night is well offshore, but arctic cold remains across the Carolinas. NW flow ahead of an advancing high pressure is weakening, but the combination of the shallow cold dome and flow off the deep snowpack to the north has kept temps in the 30s this aftn. A few spots will reach 40-43, but this is still 15 degrees below normal for mid-January. Confluence aloft will drive the expansion of the surface high E/NE from the Gulf Coast, and this occurs in conjunction with WAA aloft as ridging blossoms from the SW. These two occurring together will cause the gradient to slacken, and winds should decouple to near calm tonight while backing to the W/SW. With a very dry airmass in place (PWATs around 0.2 inches) and light winds, good radiational cooling is expected, and after highs only around 40, have sided with the cooler MAV numbers for lows tonight. This produces widespread lows of 23-25 degrees, with subtly warmer temps expected on the immediate coast, and slightly cooler temps in the sheltered pocosin swampy areas. Temps will climb to more seasonable values on Friday as the high shifts to produce SW surface winds and continued WAA. There will continue to be an inversion just atop the relatively cooler shallow surface layer, so have again forecast on the cooler side of the guidance envelope for highs on Friday, but expect maximum temps to climb to 1-2 degrees either side of 55 beneath full sunshine. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...A cutoff mid level low will meander across the southeast through the period with little fanfare. In fact, it will serve to enhance a warmup for the region with a southwest flow. Still not anticipating any precipitation and few clouds although some mid and high level moisture may stream by late. Lows Saturday morning will be in the upper 20s inland to lower 30s along the coast. Saturday afternoon will see a warmup to sixty degrees and probably a little higher inland. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Mid/upper level trough axis will shift off the SE CONUS Sunday, along with associated mid-level cloudiness. This will set the stage for a period of above normal temps to continue through Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Moisture will begin to return in low-level southerly flow Monday, with the possibility of some showers advecting in off the ocean during the day. Consensus on timing of the frontal passage appears to be Tuesday morning, and that will coincide with the highest PoPs during the period. Models suggest there will be little cold air arriving immediately behind the front, with temperatures on Tuesday still rising to around 60. They will, however, drop back into the 50s for Thursday due to height falls and surface winds becoming more northerly. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 00Z...High confidence in VFR conditions through the forecast period. W to NW winds of 5 to 10 KT will become light and variable tonight and W to SW at 5 to 8 KT after sunrise Friday morning. Extended Outlook...VFR except for possible MVFR in scattered showers Monday into early Tuesday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Latest buoy observations show NW winds continuing, but with speeds easing to 10-15 kts. These lighter winds with the offshore direction have allowed seas to fall below any cautionary or hazardous thresholds. WInd direction will remain from the NW through tonight as high pressure expands eastward from the Gulf Coast, before gradually transitioning to the SW during Friday. As the high ridges towards the area, the gradient will initially relax allowing wind speeds to fall to around 10 kts tonight, before increasing to 10-15 kts from the SW on Friday. Wave heights of 3-5 ft this aftn will gradually fall, becoming 2-3 ft tonight and Friday, with the 9 sec E/NE swell gradually decaying into Friday as a SW wind wave amplifies. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Expect a southwest flow of 10-15 knots across all waters through the period as high pressure resides to the south and the southern extension of a broad cyclonic flow to the north drive wind direction and speeds. Significant seas, lacking any stronger winds or robust swell components will be 2-4 feet. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Winds Sunday look to be light and variable as high pressure drifts across the waters. Weak southeasterly flow will begin Sunday night and increase to 15-20 knots by Tuesday night ahead of a cold front. Scattered showers will be possible Monday moving south to north, with increasing coverage along the cold front, which is expected to move off the coast Tuesday morning. An offshore wind after fropa on Tuesday looks to be relatively weak, generally 10 knots or less, in a relaxed gradient. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...CRM AVIATION...31

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