Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 291416 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1016 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE BUILDS WEST AND BRINGS A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE EAST COAST.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...STORM CREWS ARE IN CONWAY SC THIS MORNING TO DETERMINE IF LAST NIGHTS WIND DAMAGE WAS INDUCED BY A TORNADO OR STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. AN OFFICIAL STATEMENT VIA A PNS WILL BE RELEASED LATER TODAY WITH THE FINAL ASSESSMENT. TODAY...VAPOR ANIMATIONS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH QUITE WELL...DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LINGERING 900MB-750MB MOISTURE AND JULY SUNSHINE WILL PRODUCE MODERATE AFTERNOON CUMULUS. AM NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE RAINFALL BUT A FEW DROPS ON THE WINDSHIELD WOULD NOT BE ENTIRELY SHOCKING AS WE RESIDE BENEATH A COOL POOL OF AIR ALOFT SO LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS ARE RUNNING HIGH TODAY. THIS IS FAVORED MOSTLY OVER THE INTERIOR OF SE NC THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUMS MAINLY MIDDLE 80S IN A NE WIND THAT LOOKS TO EASE INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW ANALYZED OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR WEAKENS...AND DRIFTS NE TO OPEN WATERS. COOL MINIMUMS EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR JULY 30 WILL RUN 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE AIR MASS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR RECORD LOWS AT LONG ESTABLISHED CLIMATIC SITES. RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 30 INCLUDE ILM-61 LBT-67 FLO-63 AND MYR-69.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...DEEP DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS FLAT MID LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA MAINTAINS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WED WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES THU. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMING EASTERLY. HIGHS CLOSE TO WATER TEMPS WILL PREVENT ANY REAL SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING DESPITE WEAK WIND FIELD. WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH WOULD SUGGEST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WED...THOUGH FILTERED THROUGH INCREASING CIRRUS SHIELD LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AS EASTERLY WINDS SETUP. NOT READY TO BUY INTO THESE...ESPECIALLY WITH MOS POP IN THE SINGLE DIGIT RANGE...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUN MID LEVEL TROUGHING KEEPS HIGHS BELOW CLIMO...MID 80S. LOWS BELOW CLIMO ARE EXPECTED WED NIGHT...MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS WED INTO THU WILL CAUSE THE 5H TROUGH TO DIG DURING THU. SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS A RESULT COMMENCING A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE TOO LITTLE TOO LATE AS FAR AS MEASURABLE PRECIP IS CONCERNED FOR THU...BUT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS SC COUNTIES LATE THU NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THU WITH SKIES ULTIMATELY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUD THU NIGHT. COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED DEEP MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER. MOST AREAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW CLIMO BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND EXPANDING WESTERN ATLANTIC 5H RIDGE WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE AND PERIODIC SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH INTO NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE THE REMAINS OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH WILL MOVE ONSHORE AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF WEAK SUB TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AT SOME POINT...BUT WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUN THE FEATURE BECOMES WEAKER/MORE DIFFUSE. NOT READY TO COUNT ON IT YET BUT DO THINK THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE COVERAGE SAT/SUN. WILL BUMP WEEKEND POP TO HIGH CHC WHILE MAINTAINING LOW/MID CHC POP FRI/MON. CLOUD COVER AND [PRECIP ALONG WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO AIDED BY CLOUD COVER. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 12Z...VFR WITH SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING AS COOLER AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS UNDER NW- NE FLOW. THIS AFTERNOON HIGH BASED SC/CU WILL DEVELOP AS WIND DIRECTIONS VEER TO THE E-SE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. A FEW LOW TOPPED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS ATTM. VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS DUE TO MORNING FOG FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...OTHERWISE VFR. CHANCE MAINLY AFTN/EVNG SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...N-NE WIND AT 10-15 KTS TODAY. IF THE SFC PG ENDS UP BEING TIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...THEN HIER WIND SPEEDS WILL NEED TO BE APPLIED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVING SUBSIDED FROM THEIR RECENT HIGHS YESTERDAY...WILL HOLD IN A 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE. THE 4 FOOTERS ARE RESERVED FOR THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6 TO 7 SECONDS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE WATERS WILL DRIFT EAST WED INTO THU. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TEMP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LAND/WATER RULES OUT A SEA BREEZE EITHER DAY BUT A LAND BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE ON FRI WILL BE PUSHED WEST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...ACCOMPANIED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER. GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT DIRECTION WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT BUT COULD RANGE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST AT ANY GIVEN MOMENT INTO SAT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ONSHORE. LIGHT WINDS AND CHANGEABLE DIRECTION WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...MRR MARINE...III/DCH/MJC

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