Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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127 FXUS62 KILM 282224 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 624 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A COUPLE OF DRY FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL REAPPEAR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 600 PM THURSDAY...A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND POINTS SOUTH WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS GEORGETOWN COUNTY. ANOTHER BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTION. A FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDING FROM NEAR DANVILLE VA TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH CAROLINA NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IS MOVING EASTWARD AND MAY LINK UP WITH THIS FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MODELS PAINT A VARIETY OF POSSIBILITIES...BUT IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING ESE WITH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...FOLLOWING THE FRONT DOWN INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING THE FORECAST AREA BEING BRUSHED BY CONVECTION TO THE N LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS WILL HOLD ONTO POPS WELL INTO THE NIGHT...BUT KEEP THE POPS LOW END FOR NOW GIVEN THE AIRMASS WILL HAVE HAD SUFFICIENT TIME TO STABILIZE BY THE TIME THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ROLLS THIS FAR S AND E. STABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN ADVECTING SOUTHWARD AS THE SURFACE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...WITH THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN FLORENCE! THE SEABREEZE WILL BE DELAYED BY THE OFFSHORE WIND AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE BEACHES TO WARM TO 80 DEGREES OR BETTER BEFORE THE SEABREEZE FINALLY FORMS AROUND 2-3 PM. WINDS WILL BE QUICK TO VEER EASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BEHIND THIS FRONT DOES NOT BUILD APPRECIABLY SOUTHWARD. THIS VEERING LOW- LEVEL WIND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...LEADING TO GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY. IT`S WORTH NOTING THE 12Z NAM IS MUCH MORE MOIST (AND CLOUDIER) AND THEREFORE MUCH COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS. GIVEN THE COOL EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND PREDICTED ON BOTH MODELS THE 12Z GFS HIGHS LOOK TOO WARM REGARDLESS OF WHAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TURNS OUT TO BE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND EVENTUALLY THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY. AS MOISTURE DEEPENS THIS COULD LEAD TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF I-95...PERHAPS BECOMING A BIT MORE NUMEROUS SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME SEMBLANCE OF POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WPC CONTINUES TO PREFER A SOLUTION WITH A GOOD DEAL OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES MIXED IN. THE GFS IS GENERALLY DRIER. A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD GIVE SURFACE FEATURES MORE PUSH. THE HIGHEST POPS OCCUR SUNDAY WITH AN INITIAL WAVE AND TUESDAY WHEN A SECOND WAVE MOVES BY. CERTAINLY NO EXTENDED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED BUT WPC QPF FOR DAYS 4-7 ARE NEAR TWO INCHES. TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS TRENDED DOWN A LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE BUT STILL OVERALL AVERAGES ARE ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...AREA OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING AFFECTED ALL THE TERMINALS EXCEPT LBT...BUT THIS HAS MOVED OFFSHORE LEAVING DRY WEATHER WITH CLEARING SKY CONDITIONS. POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TSTMS HAS DECREASED THIS AFTN/EVE...AND HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY TONED DOWN POTENTIAL IN CURRENT TAF SET...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTM AT LBT/FLO AS SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS INLAND. HAVE INDICATED TEMPO MVFR...BUT BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER WHICH WILL NEED TO BE HANDLED WITH SHORT AMDS IF NECESSARY. OTHERWISE... WINDS WHICH HAVE BEEN VARIABLE WILL RETURN TO THE SW WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT AND GUSTS 15-20 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING. DIURNAL TSTMS AND CLOUD COVER WILL WANE AFTER DARK...BUT AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH...AN AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY DROP SE TOWARDS LBT/ILM. ATTM EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN N/NE OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH AT ILM ONLY WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE EXPECTED CONVECTION. OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS...ESPECIALLY INLAND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER DESPITE FAVORABLE NEAR-SURFACE HYDROLAPSE RATES...BUT HAVE ADDED MVFR INLAND ALONG WITH SOME STRATUS. AT THE COAST FOG CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER. COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AND A RAPID EROSION OF ANY FOG/CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING. VFR WITH NW WINDS AND ONLY A FEW SCATTERED CU IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 PM THURSDAY...A FRONT STALLED IN NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL GET A KICK SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT...PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. SW WINDS WILL VEER TO WSW LATER THIS EVE AND THEN TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH LATE EVE AND THEN DECREASING TO 10 KT OR LESS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING. INTENSE SOLAR HEATING INLAND SHOULD HELP DEVELOP AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WITH NEARSHORE WINDS TURNING ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT DOESN`T DIG SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS...ALLOWING WINDS TO QUICKLY VEER EASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...A MODEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL INITIALLY BE IN PLACE SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. BY MONDAY A FRONT MOVING CLOSER INCREASES THE GRADIENT AND BACKS THE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST A BIT. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT. THE FRONT EASES ACROSS EARLY TUESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING ESSENTIALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET. THERE COULD BE A FEW FIVE FOOTERS MIXED IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY AS WELL. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...JDW

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