Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 080612 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 112 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO WINDY AND WET CONDITIONS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW INTO MID TO LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH AND WIND ADVISORY A BIT EARLY DUE TO RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. RAIN HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES LEFT OVER EXTREME EASTERN PENDER COUNTY. WINDS HAVE ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED AND ARE NO LONGER CONSIDERED A WIDE- SPREAD THREAT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. COOLING SURFACE TEMPS WILL ARRIVE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS PULL AWAY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. EXPECT MINIMUMS OF 30 TO 35 DEGREES...MILDEST AT THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. COLUMN MOISTENS UP THROUGH MON AFTERNOON BUT DOES NOT BECOME SATURATED AT ANY LEVEL AND THEREFORE MAY BE TOUGH TO SQUEEZE ANY PCP OUT BUT WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL RIDE ACROSS OUR AREA AND ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING THIS WILL BE THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY PCP. AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SW TO W ABOVE THE SFC THROUGH LATE AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE...ONLY SLIGHT COOLING WILL OCCUR ABOVE THE SFC BUT FZ LEVEL STILL REMAINS AROUND 4K FT. WARMER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE ERODED FURTHER AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO AREA WITH COLUMN DROPPING ALMOST COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK AS CAA INCREASES BEHIND COLD FRONT. OVERALL WOULD NOT DISCOUNT SOME SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN BUT NOT COUNTING ON MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP AT ALL. PCP WATER VALUES ONLY REACH NEAR A HALF INCH. WILL CONTINUE KEEP FORECAST ALL RAIN FOR NOW AND LOW CHC POP WITH MINIMAL QPF. TEMPS WILL REACH UP INTO THE MID 50S ON MONDAY AND WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT. BY TUES MORNING...A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DIG DOWN AND ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED CAA AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS EXISTS ON TUES AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT ANY PCP IN FORECAST FOR NOW...THERE MAY BE A VERY LOW END CHC LINGERING INTO TUES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO RIDE AROUND BASE OF TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY. CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW 50 DURING THE DAY AND DOWN INTO THE MID 20S OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...VERY COLD AND WINDY FOR THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES. ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST...AND BE REINFORCED THROUGH A SERIES OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AND WEAK FRONTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AS LOW AS -16C (!) ON THURSDAY MORNING...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT AT NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. REGARDLESS...HIGHS WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED AND THU PEAKING ONLY AROUND 40 DEGREES...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE WIND CHILLS FALL INTO THE TEENS AT NIGHT...AND ONLY RISE TO AROUND 30 DURING THE AFTNS. A BIT OF WARM/MOIST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING OUR ONLY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. ATTM IT APPEARS IT WILL BE JUST A BIT TOO WARM DURING PRECIP FOR ANY PTYPE CONCERNS...BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...BUT STILL BE CONFINED TO THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50...BEFORE FALLING BACK TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 06Z...POWERFUL OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE NE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PULL TO THE NE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES IN ITS WAKE. THE GUSTY NW WINDS UNDER THE CLOUD DECKS WILL TRANSITION TO WNW TO NW AT 4 TO 8 KT WITH NO GUSTS ONCE SKIES CLEAR. A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF MIDDAY TODAY...AND LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS VORT AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE VORT WILL INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND RESULT IN A QUICK SHOT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW PRIOR TO THE CFP MONDAY EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE BUT LOW LEVEL TEMPS ARE IN QUESTION...MEANING WILL IT BE ABLE TO SUPPORT SNOW AT THE SFC OR JUST PLAIN RAIN. FOR THE MID TO LATE EVENING...STRONG CAA WILL ENSUE UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...DUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS HAVE DROPPED THE STORM WARNING IN FAVOR OF A GALE WARNING...IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST. MARINE CONDITIONS DO REMAIN DANGEROUS HOWEVER...AND GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE GALE WARNING WILL ALSO BE PULLED EARLIER IN FAVOR OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY DAYBREAK. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST AND NEXT ONE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WINDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO DIMINISH AS THEY BACK TO THE SW EARLY MONDAY....DROPPING BELOW 15 KTS. THIS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES TO THE NORTH DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH BY MON NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE OVER 20 KTS BY LATE AFTN AND NEAR 30 KTS MON NIGHT AS DEEP CAA COMBINES WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH TUES NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE WATERS AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF OUT OF THE AREA. THE STRONG OFF SHORE COMPONENT TO THE SEAS WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE. SEAS WILL INITIALLY DIMINISH TO 4 TO 6 FT AS WINDS DROP THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AND THEN WILL BUILD AGAIN LATE MON PEAKING AROUND 4 TO 8 FT MON NIGHT AND REMAINING THIS HIGH THROUGH TUES NIGHT AND BEYOND. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BEFORE SLOWLY EASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY WILL VEER TO THE NW AT 15-20 KTS...AND THEN FALL QUICKLY AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE WATERS FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SW AT 5-10 KTS BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE ALL OF WEDNESDAY (OR POSSIBLY A GALE WARNING) FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT...LOWER NEAR SHORE. SEAS THEN FALL QUICKLY THURSDAY TO 2-4 FT...AND THEN JUST 1-2 FT ON FRIDAY && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DCH

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