Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 061712 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1212 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A storm system moving northeast over the Carolinas will bring a few showers through afternoon, cutting off by evening. Dry and seasonable weather can be expected Wednesday and Thursday ahead of another cold front. Bone chilling cold air associated with an Arctic High, will bring sub-freezing temperatures deep in the 20s Saturday morning. A warming trend however will get underway Sunday, and especially into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1212 PM Tuesday...Based on radar trends it appears that additional QPF will be meager, and widespread rainfall coverage early this afternoon was scaled back considerably, to scattered becoming isolated into late afternoon, and even this may be slightly generous. Plentiful clouds will remain but a few peeks of sunshine over SC would not be a shock later this afternoon. Temperatures have held in check well and no other substantial changes were made with the midday updates. Light wind, partial clearing and wet ground will lead to patchy dense fog tonight. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Tuesday...Looking at benign weather Wednesday thru Thursday afternoon as weak high pressure prevails with basically the FA under a rather low amplitude longwave trof aloft that affects much of the U.S. with Pacific origins. The trof aloft amplifies-some during Thu into Fri enabling a piece of a 1050+ mb Arctic High to break and push toward the area late Thu night. The cold or arctic front ahead of it is progged to push across Thu afternoon and early evening. A thin band of moisture along this front may be enough to squeeze out a few hundredths of an inch of rain. With no tapping of any moisture, this front may end up being a dry passage. The sfc pg tightens after its passage Thu night and combined with excellent CAA as evidenced with a nice packing of the various thickness fields dropping across the FA, especially in the low levels when looking at the 1000-850mb thicknesses. Have basically stayed with a blend of model guidance for max/min temps this period with temps running at or slightly higher than the 30 year normals. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...Very cold temperatures greet the extended as an arctic front will be well offshore Friday morning. Highs and lows Fri/Sat will be 10-15 degrees below climo, peaking in the upper 40s both aftns, and dropping into the low 20s by Saturday morning. This will be the coldest air since last winter, and gusty winds Friday will create an even more significant "bite" to the air despite full sunshine. The cold Canadian high pressure responsible for this chill will push offshore quickly by Sunday thanks to broad cyclonic flow aloft, setting up a warming trend back to seasonable values Sunday and into early next week. As this high moves offshore, return flow develops, and a weak coastal trough may develop offshore, advecting warm and moist air into the region for Monday ahead of a rapidly approaching cold front for Monday night. This will allow Monday to warm to above seasonable temps, but at the same time rain chances will increase ahead of the front late on Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 18Z...Challenging conditions will continue through most of the period for aviation interests with mostly IFR conditions remaining in place. A complex low pressure and frontal system will move northeastward this afternoon and overnight. Although most of the rain will be coming to an end shortly persistent low level moisture will be difficult to scour. There is a brief window of opportunity for MVFR conditions this afternoon and evening but with a weak pressure gradient setting up, IFR should redevelop once again late this evening and be slow to erode Wednesday morning. Extended Outlook...Fog possible Wednesday night. VFR conditions expected to prevail late week through this weekend. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1212 PM Tuesday...Small Craft Advisory all waters, as NE waves every 5-6 seconds interacts with building SSW waves every 7-8 seconds. Changeable wind direction over the waters can be expected as a coastal low migrates NE over the waters. Frying Pan reporting S winds now with 7 ft waves every 7 seconds. The ocean will remain dangerous today and tonight before seas and winds begin to ease into Wednesday. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 415 AM Tuesday...Leftover SCA or SCEC conditions possible Wed morning. Overall, winds and seas will diminish and subside respectively Wed thru Thu as weak high pressure prevails. By late Wed afternoon thru early Thu, winds will have become variable in direction at 10 kt or less. In lieu of forecasting variable, will indicate a predominate direction. A cold or arctic front is progged to push off the coast late Thu afternoon and across the local waters and well offshore during Thu evening. After the CFP, the sfc pg will tighten dramatically and excellent CAA will prevail across the area waters Thu night. Guidance indicates NW winds increasing to 15 to 25 kt with gusts over 30 kt possible as the core of the cold air begins pushing across the local waters during the pre-dawn Fri hours. Significant seas having mellowed to around 2 ft early Thu, will rapidly build Thu night. With a NW wind direction, an offshore trajectory, will indicate a range of seas building. Could see 1 to 3 ft near shore and 3 to 6 ft across the outer waters from 10 to 20 nm out. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...SCA conditions possible to greet Friday morning as an arctic front will be positioned well offshore. In the wake of this front early Friday, NW winds of 20-25 kts will push seas up to 4-6 ft, and an SCA may be required. These winds and elevated seas will fall through Friday however as high pressure builds eastward. As this surface high moves eastward and offshore the Mid-Atlantic region during the wknd, winds will weaken to around 10 kts by late Saturday, with a slow veering to the NW. Seas fall quickly late Friday and on Saturday as well, from 3-5 ft Friday aftn to just 1-2 ft at the end of the period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW/8 NEAR TERM...8 SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...SHK MARINE...JDW/8

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