Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 201046 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 548 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Dense fog will slowly burn off this morning. A warm front will finally move north of the area later this morning. The Bermuda High will bring temperatures well above normal through the weekend with a few record high temperatures possible. A cold front will drop towards the area Thursday night and Friday, but likely stall just to our north before retreating. A cold front will approach from the northwest late Sunday night and may stall across the region Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 10 am this morning. A combination of fog, sea fog, low clouds and isolated showers will continue into the morning hours as temps and dewpoints remain high and warm front remains across the area. Looking at sounding and moisture profiles, these conditions will improve by mid to late morning with clouds breaking up some across the area. Areas of sea fog lingering offshore could reach the beaches at times this afternoon and again into tonight. Warm front was running through the forecast area from near Kingstree to Whiteville with temps to the east in the 60s and temps to the west in the mid 50s. This warm front will lift north through the remainder of the forecast area by mid morning. All guidance shows southerly winds by noon across the area. Bermuda High pressure and strong ridge aloft will maintain a warm and moist southerly flow and unseasonably warm temps this afternoon through tonight. Models continue to show some showers feeding on shore but will be isolated and may end up being more in the way of sea fog or fog/stratus overnight as the moisture remains very shallow and a decent subsidence inversion remains around 4-5k ft. Overall expect breaks of sunshine across the area and a very warm afternoon. WAA and ridge building aloft will bring 850 temps up from 11c up to 14c by this evening. With a very warm start to the day and temps already near 60, expect possible record warmth. Tonight will be another warm night with temps near 60 with fog/sea fog and some low clouds. The record high for today will be Forecast/Record High Wilmington 78/78 in 2014 Florence 80/81 in 1997 N Myrtle Beach 72/76 in 1953 && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...Bermuda high pressure will dominate the weather across the eastern Carolinas and bring well above normal temperatures and unseasonably high humidity. A cold front will be dropping S Thu and Thu night. This front should begin to backdoor into North Carolina Thu night, but still looks like it will stall to our N before retreating later Fri and Fri night as the ridge of high pressure expands. Temps at 850 mb will peak around 15C this period and this should,with the help of some sunshine, push high temps to around 80 both days. The proximity to cool Atlantic waters will result in a sharp temp gradient as you near the coast. Beach temps are not expected to exceed 70 either day. Also, patchy sea fog should persist at the beaches and just offshore through the period. Lows will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Record highs may be challenged Wed and Thu... 02/21 City High Temperature Forecast/Daily Record High Wilmington 76/78 in 2014 Florence 82/81 in 1997 N Myrtle Beach 72/76 in 1953 02/22 City High Temperature Forecast/Daily Record High Wilmington 76/78 in 2003 Florence 82/80 in 1990 N Myrtle Beach 72/75 in 2007 The risk for rainfall looks meager this period given only very shallow moisture and persistent ridging. Did include a very small POP for areas N of a ILM to near BBP line late Thu night ahead of the southward progressing backdoor cold front and this may end up being too generous. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...Continues to look like a period of extended warmth with potential for record breaking temperatures this week. Bermuda High and 5h western Atlantic ridge team up to bring an extended period of warm southerly flow and mid-level subsidence. GFS continues to slowly back away from bringing a backdoor cold front into the area Fri. Meanwhile the Canadian, ECMWF, and WPC all have the front stalling out around the NC/VA border. Given the GFS is trending in this direction and mid- level ridging tends to win out went ahead and removed any hint of a front moving into the area Fri. Next shot at rainfall looks to be Sun night as cold front moves in from the northwest. Front lacks a strong cold push and the ECMWF stalls it in the region while the GFS passes it cleanly. Looking at the predicted upper pattern would think the front stalled in the area is probably more likely and for now will carry the Sun night chance pop through Mon. The dynamics associated with the front pass northwest of the area and forcing Sun night would be limited, curtailing rainfall amounts. Might have a better shot on Mon if the front ends up stalled and shortwave activity can get involved, but have low confidence for the start of next week at this point. Partial thickness and 850 temps through the end of the week suggest highs in the upper 70s to low 80s for areas not along the immediate coast. Southeast to south flow will lead to a strong sea breeze that will become a modified resultant as the winds veer to south-southwest late in the period. Onshore flow and water temps in the mid to upper 50s will keep highs at the beaches in the mid to upper 60s at best. Front moving into the area Sun night/Mon will drop temps a little. Even so most areas are likely to end up close to 10 degrees above climo. Lows will be even warmer with potential for lows 25 degrees or more above climo. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 12Z...Dense fog advisory this morning with visibilities below a half mile in many spots. Things will improve slowly after daybreak, with VFR conditions not expected until late morning. Warm southerly flow will continue with well above average temperatures. There are a few showers off this coast at this time, but think they will only affect ILM if at all. Look for IFR conditions returning tonight with above normal temp/dpt. Extended Outlook...VFR. Morning IFR/BR possible Tuesday-Thu. Sea fog possible through Thu but confidence is low.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...A Dense Fog Advisory will remain in effect until noon today. Warm and moist southerly winds around Bermuda High will flow over the cool shelf waters producing ideal conditions for sea fog through this morning. Expect patchy sea fog through the afternoon and may end up with another advisory for tonight. Winds will be generally be light, less than 10 kt with only a slight spike in the afternoon due to development of sea breeze. This will maintain seas 2 to 3 ft across the waters. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...Bermuda high pressure will bring benign winds and seas. Unseasonably warm and humid air will continue across the waters and thus the risk for sea fog will continue. Dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s while water temps will be in the mid 50s and this will be marginally conducive for sea fog to remain in place. The wind direction will continue to be south which will not maximize residence time over the cool shelf waters. Thus, will keep the coverage of sea fog patchy at this time. Mariners should still expect that at least some of the fog will be dense with visibility 1 nm or less. Wind speeds will be 10 kt or less through the period, although at the height of the seabreeze circulation each afternoon, wind speeds across the near shore waters could briefly reach 10 to 15 kt. Seas will be 2 to 3 ft with 4 ft seas mixing in late Thu and Thu night. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...Bermuda High will maintain southerly flow through the period. Weak backdoor front will try to drop in from the north Fri, but appears the boundary will stall just S of the NC/VA border. Gradient will be on the weak side with winds 5 to 10 kt Fri. High strengthens a bit for the weekend with gradient becoming a little more defined as inland areas warm up. Southwest flow on Sat will be closer to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft Fri build to 3 to 4 ft Sat as winds become southwest and increase in speed. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ087-096- 099-105>110. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...III AVIATION...43

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