Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 251137 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 637 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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SUNSHINE WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OVERSPREADS THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AND MAY REMAIN STALLED OVER THE AREA BEFORE MOVING SOUTH BY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHED OFFSHORE 1-2 HOURS AGO. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS SPREADING EASTWARD PUSHED BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS AND IS BECOMING MORE POSITIVELY TILTED WITH TIME AS THE MAIN VORTICITY CENTER ACCELERATES NE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. UNTIL THIS TROUGH AXIS REACHES THE AREA AROUND NOON A DENSE SHIELD OF CIRROSTRATUS AND HIGH ALTOSTRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO OBSCURE THE SKY. THESE CLOUDS WILL UNFORTUNATELY IMPACT TEMPERATURES...SHAVING SEVERAL DEGREES OFF WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE A SUNNY AND MILD CHRISTMAS DAY. AS IT APPEARS NOW HIGHS SHOULD REACH 60 IN MOST AREAS. THE HIGH SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THE LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME CALM WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 30S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES...FOLLOWING THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS GUIDANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL MOVE OFF SHORE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LOW LEVELS UP THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CAROLINAS. PCP WATER VALUES WILL BE DOWN NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH FRI BUT WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY REACHING ABOVE AN INCH BY SAT EVE AS A DEEPER MOISTER RETURN FLOW SETS UP. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY CLOUD FREE THROUGH FRI INTO SATURDAY BUT WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SW BY SAT EVE. OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAYS WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 60S AS AIR MASS MODIFIES. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER ON SATURDAY AFTER A SLIGHTLY WARMER START TO THE DAY AND INCREASING WAA. WITH THE HIGH NEARLY OVERHEAD STILL ON FRI NIGHT...DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN NEAR 40 MOST PLACES. BY SAT NIGHT...DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE UP ALMOST 20 DEGREES BY SAT NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS CLOSER TO 50. HAVE INCLUDED LOW END POPS NEAR DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS MOISTURE STARTS SPREADING NORTH INTO THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL GET SUPPRESSED FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK AS A VERY BROAD TROUGH ROTATES OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN ALMOST ZONAL FLOW WITH A SLIGHTLY SW TO NE FLOW ALOFT. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY WILL GET STRUNG OUT IN THIS ALMOST ZONAL FLOW. LOOKS LIKE THE COOLER AIR MAY REMAIN NEAR OR JUST TO THE NORTH IN STALLED BOUNDARY UNTIL IT GETS A PUSH FROM MID TO UPPER TROUGH BY TUES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN WARMER TEMPS...CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT PCP SUNDAY THROUGH TUES AS FRONT REMAINS STALLED NEARBY AND A FEW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT. ONCE FRONT MOVES SOUTH...TEMPS SHOULD COOL OFF A BIT BUT WARM AIR ALOFT WILL OVERRUN SHALLOW COOL AIR TO PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. OVERALL...A CLOUDY AND DAMP LONG TERM FORECAST WITH WARMER TEMPS TO START AND A COOL DOWN FRO MID WEEK...HEADING INTO THE NEW YEAR. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 12Z...COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED OFF THE COAST...WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KTS OR MORE. THE UPPER TROUGH STILL HAS TO COME THROUGH...AND UNTIL IT DOES WE WILL SEE A MID CLOUD CEILING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. HAVE NOT PUT IN ANY FOG TONIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT WITH ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COULD NOT RULE IT OUT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN RETURNING SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT MOVED OFFSHORE WITHIN THE PAST 1-2 HOURS ALLOWING 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN A HEALTHY WESTERLY WIND THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY...WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN POSTED UNTIL 1800Z/1 PM EST FOR ALL OF OUR MARINE FORECAST ZONES FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY RELAX FIRST ALONG THE SC COAST WHERE THE ADVISORY COULD BE LOWERED EARLY IF OBSERVATIONS LATER SUPPORT THIS. THE HIGH WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA TONIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING FURTHER. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO ONLY 2-3 FEET. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EARLY FRIDAY WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY SAT NIGHT BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING NEARLY OVERHEAD AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST...WINDS WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...10 KTS OR LESS FRI AND SAT. OVERALL SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS BUT WNA SHOWS A VERY LONG PERIOD UP TO 17 SECOND NE SWELL MIXING IN OVER THE WEEKEND. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT MAY GET HUNG UP OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PERSISTING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT ACTUALLY GETS PUSHED SOUTH BY TUES. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT AND IT MAY BISECT OUR WATERS FOR PART OF THE TIME WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE. WINDS MAY PICK UP SLIGHTLY AS FRONT NEARS THE WATERS. THEREFORE SEAS MAY SPIKE UP A BIT TO NEAR 4 FT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT OVERALL EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250- 252-254-256.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...43

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