Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 050607 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 107 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS MORNING AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A QUICK BOUT OF RAIN WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW MIXING IN. ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 100 AM FRIDAY...THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINING NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WAS INTENSIFYING SLOWLY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N OF OUR LATITUDE THROUGH SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT AND MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE CAPE FEAR REGION WHERE AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE INTO FRI MORNING. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAYBREAK...USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR AS IT ACCELERATES THE COASTAL LOW AWAY FROM THE AREA AND ALLOWS FOR MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...N WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER COMMON. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM WSW TO ENE THIS MORNING AND SOME LOCATIONS...W OF INTERSTATE 95...HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME GLIMPSES OF THE SUN AT SUNRISE. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFFSHORE LOW WILL BE MOVING SWIFTLY NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...PULLING MOISTURE AWAY WITH IT BUT ALSO BRINGING IN A STRONG SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOWS A DEGREE OR SO EITHER SIDE OF 30. THE APPROACH OF A VERY POTENT AND DEEP SHORT WAVE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WILL SPAWN CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK-SIDE OF THE LOW WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY ALONG THE COAST...POSSIBLY ENDING BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW FROZEN PRECIP UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT...ANOTHER CASE OF COLD AIR CHASING MOISTURE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER CAPTION FOR THIS PERIOD READS SEASONABLY COOL EARLY FEBRUARY AIR CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY. ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS OFFERS 2 PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AS AN ENERGETIC CLIPPER SHORT-WAVE SPURS OFFSHORE CYCLOGENESIS. ECMWF OFFERS A STRONGER AMPLIFICATION OF THIS FEATURE BUT FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTCOMES IT IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS IN TERMS OF A LOW-QPF SYSTEM RELIANT ON ATLC MOISTURE. MONDAY NIGHT A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER COLD POOL TUESDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AGREEMENT IS GOOD AMONG GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THAT A BROAD AND COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY TO MID-WEEK. ENOUGH LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS PRESENT TO INTERACT WITH THE LAPSE RATES ALOFT TO WARRANT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES AT THIS TIME SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE OF LIQUID FORM.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN WAS JUST MOVING THROUGH THE ILM TERMINAL AND HAD ALREADY CLEARED THE REMAINING TERMINALS EARLIER THIS EVE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS SLOWLY INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE. RESIDUAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...FROM S AND W TO N AND E DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VFR EXPECTED BY MORNING THROUGHOUT. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW AND THIS WILL PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AS STRONG MIXING ENSUES. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE...SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH MVFR. VFR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THIS LOW WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AND INTERSECTS THE SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT IT WILL BE PULLED OUT OFF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL THE WATERS BRINGING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY HIGH SEAS IN THE WAKE OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT A STRONGLY-WORDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY MORNING FOR WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT AND 5 TO 8 FT SEAS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER TEXAS MOVES RAPIDLY EAST OVER EASTERN CONUS. ANOTHER RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE WATERS SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE AND LIKELY NECESSITATING THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...CHALLENGING MARINE CONDITIONS START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS STRONG OFFSHORE N-NW WINDS GREET SUNDAY DUE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFFSHORE. 25 KT WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON SUNDAY. IMPROVEMENT WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS NE AWAY FROM THE WATERS. THE IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ADVERTISED PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS 20-25 KT SW-W WINDS BY TUESDAY AND HIGHER GUSTS OUTER PORTION. THUS IT APPEARS ANOTHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AFTER AN ADVISORY SUNDAY.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250- 252-254-256.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...RJD/MAC

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