-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 180556
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
155 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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Hurricane Jose will continue to lift off to the north leaving dry and
warm weather across the Coastal Carolinas through much of the week.
An increased rip current risk will continue from swells from
Jose and then Maria by mid week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 600 PM Sunday...Quite a concentrated area of showers
developed up near New Bern in the past couple of hours and is
moving southward into Pender County now. Forecast PoPs have
been updated in the Maple Hill and Surf City area southward
through the tip of Cape Fear for higher rain chances for the
next 2 hours. The loss of daytime heating should spell the end
of this activity, with dry weather anticipated overnight.

Sky cover forecasts have also been updated based on currently
observed convection. Models are also showing another round of
low stratus clouds developing over eastern North Carolina late
tonight which should make it into the Wilmington/Cape Fear area
late tonight around 5-6 AM and persist through 10-11 AM Monday.
No other significant changes have been made to the forecast
with this early evening update. Discussion from 300 PM
follows...

An isolated shower or two has popped up east of an
Elizabethtown to Conway line early this afternoon, as well as
and the potential for this type of activity will continue
through max heating across the eastern CWA where there is
sufficient moisture.

Overnight, a northerly breeze will preclude significant fog
development, but do anticipate some stratus, which should be most
prominent across SE NC, with very little expected across the Pee Dee.

On Monday, moisture profiles will be drier as Jose lifts north well
off the Outer Banks. Expect mostly sunny skies and no PoPs under the
influence of confluent flow aloft and subsidence.

Otherwise, the rip current risk will remain elevated through Monday
as a result of the incoming swell energy.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...Mid level heights will slowly recover in the
wake of the broad circulation of Jose through the period. By
Wednesday morning expect a benign westerly flow aloft. A weak
pressure pattern will prevail at the surface with if anything an
extension of a broad and weak trough east of the Appalachians. Will
continue to advertise a dry forecast through the period with highs
mainly in the middle 80s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 PM Sunday...H5 pattern on Wednesday will be highlighted by
Jose`s circulation near New England with a trough axis lagging back
across the Mid-Atlantic westward into the MS valley. At the surface,
weak high pressure will be the rule, reinforced by high pressure
from the north late in the week. Only low-end POPs needed primarily
for Thursday with sea breeze becoming active, otherwise building
high pressure will preclude convective chances Friday. Depending on
the low-level moisture transport, far in advance of the northwest
side of Maria, there could be some showers that can move onshore in
the northeasterly low-level fetch this weekend. However, weather for
the upcoming weekend and early the following week will be highly
dependent on Maria`s eventual track. Followed a blend of ECE and MEX
numbers through the period. Lastly, the rip current risk will likely
increase again by Wednesday as Maria` swells begin to impact the
coast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 06Z...Hurricane Jose is about 400 miles east of Cape Fear
this evening and should continue to move northward with little
impact on the area but will produce some gusty northerly winds
right along the coast early today. Some patches of mid level
clouds right around 8k ft across the area overnight, remaining
in line with soundings and moisture profiles basically right
under subsidence inversion with plenty of dry air above through the
mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. Looks like another round of
low stratus will produce IFR ceilings this morning. May be somewhat
more widespread than last night with soundings showing a saturated
layer up to around 1200 ft with models indicating ceiling heights
500-800 ft mainly between 10z to 14z from ILM across to LBT and
lower possibly as far south as CRE/MYR.

Expect plenty of dry air and subsidence as winds back slightly from
N to N-NW through the remainder of the TAF period on the back end of
Jose as it moves north. Therefore VFR expected once stratus
dissipates by around noon.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions through the period are
expected with the exception of a few hours of early morning low
clouds or fog most mornings through the period. The highest
risk of IFR conditions will be in the 0900-1200Z timeframe.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 600 PM Sunday...Latest buoy observations from the NOAA
and CORMP networks show the Wavewatch model is overestimating
wave heights by about 1 foot, while the local SWAN/NWPS wave
model is overestimating by 1-3 feet. Small downward adjustments
have been made to forecast waves through the night and into
Monday, but no changes are needed to the Small Craft Advisories.
Forecast winds look good and no changes are needed at this
time. Discussion from 300 PM follows...

Long period swells (13 sec) emanating from Jose will continue
to produce 5-8 ft seas through the night. The Small Craft
Advisory will remain in place, which currently is in effect
through 8 PM Monday. Latest WNA is suggesting the swells within
20 nm may fall below 6 feet south of Little River Inlet by
Monday morning, which would allow the advisory to be lifted.
However due to timing uncertainties, will not make adjustments
with this forecast package.

Northeast winds of 15 to 20 knots will continue into Monday morning,
and back towards the north as Jose lifts north well off the Outer
Banks. The gradient will weaken Monday afternoon and allow winds to
diminish towards 10 knots.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...With a weak pressure gradient in place, winds
will be somewhat benign. With a remaining fringe affect from the
slow moving Jose, winds will be out of the northwest at generally
ten knots or less, at least through early Tuesday. By about midday
Tuesday, a southwest flow should develop with a slightly stronger
range of 10-15 knots possible through Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...Weak high pressure will prevail through the
long term period but will become better established from the north
Thu into Fri. As a result, varying winds Wed into Thu will become
east-northeasterly during Fri and increasing to around 15 knots.
Seas will be a mix of residual easterly swell then increasing Maria
swells by Wednesday. Maria`s swells will continue to build through
the end of the week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for SCZ054-056.
NC...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for NCZ106-108-
     110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT Monday
     for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...TRA/CRM
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...TRA