Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 310530 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 130 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL SLOWLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: THE WEATHER PATTERN IS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM LAST NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD TOWARD THE VA/NC COAST. FROM 850 MILLIBARS ON UP THE RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS CREATING A LIGHT BUT DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. NO SYNOPTIC CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT. A POCKET OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR AT AND ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL SHOULD BE INLAND NOW. THE 00Z MHX WEATHER BALLOON SAMPLED THE BEGINNING OF A SLUG OF MOISTURE ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE DRY AIR...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THE DEWPOINT AT 5000 FEET ABOVE MYRTLE BEACH AND FLORENCE IS IN THE 30S CURRENTLY! MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHALLOW CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING THIS INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE OVERNIGHT... PARTICULARLY SINCE THE MESOSCALE PATTERN ALONG THE COAST WILL FEATURE A WEAK LANDBREEZE LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL FOCUS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BEACHES...WITH SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ADVECTING WESTWARD (INLAND) WITH THE MEAN FLOW. 20 POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF 30S ALONG THE BEACHES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD BEGINNING AROUND 4 AM. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AS THE DRY AIR THIS EVENING (LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT INLAND) SHOULD ALLOW EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR ONCE SURFACE WINDS DIE DOWN. THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PATCHY FOG INLAND LATE TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL VERY SLOWLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TO APPROACH AS WE MOVE INTO TUE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ERODE AND WE BEGIN TO TAP GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. INLAND AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST SURGE...CLIMBING IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AND A HALF. STILL NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE DOES REACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST MON AFTERNOON AND EVE. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON. WE DO EXPECT AN UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SCATTERED WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY MON AFTERNOON AND EVE. AS WAS THE CASE THIS MORNING...AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEABREEZE PUSHES INLAND. THE BEACHES WILL BE MORE PRONE TO GETTING SOME RAINFALL IN THE MORNING WHILE ELSEWHERE POPS WILL BE HIGHER MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. TYPICAL TEMPS FOR THE LAST DAY OF MAY AND JUNE 1ST. HIGHS INLAND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 DEGREES. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD KEEP THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW MEANDERING ACROSS THE GULF COAST INITIALLY WITH A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN FORM...THE LOW ESSENTIALLY BECOMES A WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB HEIGHT PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT TRUDGES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND ENDS UP OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. THESE ELEMENTS WILL COMBINE TO KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCUR TUESDAY AND TREND DOWN SOMEWHAT THEREAFTER. BY THURSDAY THE FORCING WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY TO APPLY A MORE ENHANCED DIURNAL TREND TO THE POPS. WPC IS PAINTING DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEVEN DAY TOTALS RANGING FROM 2-3 INCHES. THE CAVEAT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST QPF COULD SET UP JUST OFFSHORE. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...READINGS...BEYOND A WARMER TUESDAY...WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...THESE RANGES MAY END UP SOMEWHAT LOWER. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE AREA ATTM WITH LIGHT WINDS. ISOLATED SHRA OFF THE COAST LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO AFFECT ILM SO HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO GROUP AT ILM FOR SHRA. ALSO HAVE MAINTAINED PREDOMINANT MVFR AT CRE/FLO/LBT. SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT ILM BEFORE DAY BREAK BUT HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF ILM TAF AS THE DURATION SHOULD BE BRIEF IF IT OCCURS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED. EXPECT THE SAME CONDITIONS AS YESTERDAY AFTER SUNRISE WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BUT VFR FOR THE MOST PART. VCSH CONTINUES AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WITH WINDS BECOMING SE AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 14Z OR SO WITH LIGHT WINDS AGAIN EXPECTED AFTER 23Z OR SO. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TUE AND WED. SHOWERS DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THU.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND...WITH SPEEDS ACTUALLY DIMINISHING A BIT AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. A WEAK LANDBREEZE MAY ACTUALLY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST...AND INTERESTINGLY THIS FEATURE MAY HELP DEVELOP BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO ENHANCING CONVERGENCE OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS. SEAS REMAIN IN THE 3-4 FOOT RANGE (2 FEET IN THE LEE OF FRYING PAN SHOALS) WITH AN EASTERLY SWELL DUE TO THE LONG WIND FETCH ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN SEA HEIGHTS OR PERIODS TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE WATERS. SSE TO S WINDS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BECOME SW MON NIGHT AS THE RIDGE FINALLY DEPARTS ALLOWING A FRONT TO APPROACH. WIND SPEEDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KT...SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVE EACH DAY. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3 TO 4 FT SUN AND SUN NIGHT...BUT THE 8 TO 9 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ABATE...ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE ABOUT A FOOT MON AND MON NIGHT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED/DELAYED THE BACK DOOR FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR TUESDAY THE ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AROUND TEN KNOTS CONTINUES. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT ALTHOUGH STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS...IS WEAKER AND APPEARS TO WASH OUT WITH A BRIEF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEAST AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS ATTEMPT ANOTHER RUN AT A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION THURSDAY BUT THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE SHOULD TRUMP THE WEAKLY FORCED FRONT. SEAS WILL BE MODEST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THE MERCY OF LOWER WIND SPEEDS AND THE CHANGEABLE FETCH. OVERALL EXPECT 1-3 FEET.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJD NEAR TERM...REK/TRA SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...REK/RAN MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/SHK

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