Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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136 FXUS62 KILM 221923 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 323 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving cold front will sink south into North Carolina late tonight before stalling near the state line. A complex storm system will develop along this boundary and bring heavy rainfall and potentially strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday through Monday night. This system will lift away from the area Tuesday with a return to seasonable and dry weather by Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Saturday...A small cluster of showers between Dovesville and Blenheim in northern South Carolina is all the convection that has been able to develop so far today. Relative h humidity at the top of the mixed layer has reached 70 percent across this region indicating the updrafts have at least a marginally- conducive environment for growing deeper and up into the unstable air aloft. Any further convection over the next several hours should remain very isolated. A surface cold front across southern Virginia is dropping southward, pulled southward by low pressure developing across Georgia and eastern Alabama. This boundary should dip into the Lumberton area around 2 AM and may sink as far south as Lake City, Conway, Oak Island and Southport by sunrise Sunday morning. Although deep moisture is lacking, enough low-level moisture will exist near the top of the shallow frontal inversion with steep lapse rates aloft that scattered showers may develop late tonight. PoPs as high as 30- 40 percent across SE North Carolina dip below 20 percent along the Santee River in South Carolina. Compared to the past few days Sunday should run significantly cooler as the front wavers across the area. The deep 500 mb system will cut off and dive into Alabama, backing our mid and upper level flow southerly. The stream of deep moisture won`t really arrive until late in the day and I`ve had to back off PoPs especially across the eastern half of the forecast area. Forecast PoPs range from 80 percent west of I-95 to 40-50 percent along the South Carolina beaches with average inland QPF of 0.25 to 0.50 inches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Saturday... Impressive upper low translating from south- central TN to ATL Sunday night while sfc low impinges upon SAV. Coastal warm front will retreat inland possibly leading to odd temperature curve. Rain chances will certainly be increasing but the opportunity for appreciable rainfall will be located to our north near the elevated frontal surface. Far inland zones may get into some heavier rainfall towards the end of Sunday night as it gets captured by the upper low. Most of Monday will a very different story. Not only will the system be occluding just south of Cape Fear but some of the tropical moisture currently in the Bahamas may start getting entrained into the system. SPC painting a marginal severe threat for areas along and east of the track of the low. This is certainly plausible given strong wind fields off the surface though instability will be very hard to come by. By Monday evening the entire area will end up on the cooler side of the cyclone as it finally begins to accelerate northeastward up the coast. Models seem to be coming into agreement that this should start cutting down rainfall intensity over far southern zones possibly including the Grand Strand whilst moisture transport vectors zero in on Cape Fear area as well as into Bladen and Robeson Counties.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Saturday...Low pressure will be moving out of the area Tuesday, bringing and end to the rain and gradually clearing skies Tuesday night. Fair weather is expected for the remainder of the long term period. Temperatures Tuesday will be near to slightly below normal with above normal temperatures expected for the rest of the period.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 18Z...High confidence in VFR conditions through at least 06Z-08Z tonight. Breezy southwest winds associated with the seabreeze could gust to 25 knots at ILM, MYR, and CRE now through sunset. Attention will then shift to a cold front dropping southward across eastern North Carolina after midnight. This front could arrive in LBT as soon as 06Z, ILM-FLO as soon as 09-11Z, and the Myrtle Beach airport 11Z-13Z, accompanied by a shift to northeasterly winds. IFR ceilings will develop behind the front and may linger into at least noon local time on Sunday. Showers will also develop behind the front with occasional visibility restrictions possible. Extended outlook...Periods of MVFR and IFR Sunday afternoon through early Tuesday in low stratus, showers, and thunderstorms. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /Tonight through Sunday/... As of 300 PM Saturday...A cold front currently moving south across southern Virginia will dip into southeastern North Carolina very late tonight, shifting our southwesterly winds to the north. This front will probably make it as far south as the Brunswick County beaches by mid morning Sunday before turning back around and returning just north of Cape Fear during the afternoon. The strongest winds over the next 24 hours are actually occurring now with the strong seabreeze. Winds around 20 knots with gusts as high as 25 knots are occurring within a few miles of the beaches but should decrease this evening. Winds around 15 knots are expected Sunday on both sides of the front, but an intriguing possibility that a surge of 15-20 kt northeast flow might develop north of Cape Fear late Sunday afternoon. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Unsettled weather with a more southern solution now well agreed upon between various guidance. With the system moving up the coast winds will be tempered at times and even variable but the broad warm sector should be adequate to yield some advisory-worthy seas within 20 nm of shore. Backing of wind direction pronounced towards the end of the period as the low begins to pull away to the NE. Current indications are that flags may still be needed as the decrease in seas lags, especially off NC waters. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...A complex storm system will continue to move up the coast Tuesday, resulting in diminishing NW winds and subsiding seas though SCA conditions are possible, especially the first half of the day. For the rest of the period, light south to southwest winds are expected with seas 4 ft or less.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...RAN AVIATION...TRA

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