Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS62 KILM 141739
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1239 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017
Relatively cooler high pressure will extend into the Carolinas
through the weekend. A warming trend will take place Tuesday
through Thursday in south winds ahead of another cold front.
Rain chances will ramp up late next week as the front stalls,
followed by a low pressure system from the Gulf states.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1222 PM Saturday...Persistent stratus layer still
enveloping our NC counties although steadily eroding from the
south over our SC counties as a stalled back door cold front
sits south of Georgetown county. Forecast good to go with no
changes needed. Expect places with cloud cover will not hit 60
today, with some places to the south peaking in the low 60s.
Previous discussion follows:
Maximums to run 15-20 degrees cooler than yesterday, and much
more aligned today with climatology for mid January. The current
NE surge in wake if a cold front is not a strong one, but low-
level moisture advection will bring a fair amount of clouds
today. No rain chances today as moisture profile contains little
depth. Clouds and NE winds to prevail tonight with min
temperatures in the mid and upper 40s.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Saturday...Good bit of clouds this period as low-
level moisture remains high. This will be helped along by
resurgence of high pressure late Sunday into Monday as a
secondary wedge becomes established. Highs similar both Sunday
and Monday but slightly cooler Monday as the wedge builds in.
No significant rainfall in the forecast this period but a few
sprinkles on Monday cannot be ruled out as moisture deepens to
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Mid to upper ridge extending up
through the southeast will shift east along with surface high,
allowing a deep S-SW flow of warmer and moister air to feed into
the Carolinas. Tuesday will warm and combine with some
increasing sunshine to produce temps close to 70 while Wed will
continue warm with temps in the 70s, but expect increasing
clouds and chc of showers ahead of approaching cold front. The
GFS shows a deeper trough aloft pushing cold front a bit farther
south allowing drier high pressure to build in behind cold
front Wed night into Thurs. The ECMWF keeps front draped closer,
leaving a cloudier and wetter day for Thurs. Overall it looks
like more unsettled weather may affect the Carolinas Thurs or
Fri. Temps will drop back down several degrees behind front late
Wed into Thurs but will continue to remain above normal.
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 18Z...Low confidence forecast for this valid period as
stratus slowly erodes this aftn, but may redevelop overnight.
Cold front has sagged well south of the terminals, and cool/moist
advection has allowed MVFR stratus to envelop the area. This stratus
is gradually eroding with aftn heating as noted on satellite
pictures, and expect all terminals to slowly lift to VFR before
sunset beneath weakning N/NE winds. What happens tonight is still
very uncertain however, as guidance diverges with IFR potential.
NAM guidance suggests winds backing all the way to the west and
drying out the column enough to prevent IFR stratus, while the
GFS has more subtle backing and redevelops stratus everywhere
after midnight. While significant drying is not expected this
aftn, setting up a situation where the low-level column could
quickly re-saturate tonight, lack of model agreement plus the
potential for some drier air, makes ceiling forecast difficult.
Have walked back IFR a bit from inherited both in timing and
intensity, but maintained IFR at all terminals except ILM, and
will hope to gain some better confidence with the next TAF set.
Any stratus will burn off only very slowly thanks to continued light
winds on Sunday, so IFR/MVFR could persist into Sunday aftn with
winds becoming north at 5-10 kts once again.
Extended Outlook...Stratus/fog possible each morning through
Tuesday. Cold front expected Wednesday will be accompanied by
showers and MVFR. VFR Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1222 PM Saturday...Latest obs show NE winds in the 10 to
15 kt range with 3 to 5 ft seas. Have allowed all advisories
and headlines to lapse as a result. Previous discussion follows:
Advisory conditions until late morning or midday as the surge
of NE wind plays out, but improving marine conditions tonight as
winds tail off. E swell wave of long period around 11 seconds
will interact with NE wind waves in 4-5 seconds intervals. NO
TSTMS this period.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Saturday...After a brief lull in Sunday, an uptick
in NE winds will prevail as a secondary surge unfolds late
Sunday into Monday. Not a strong surge so only a `Cautionary`
headline may suffice this period as opposed to an Advisory.
Expect gusts to 20 KT Sunday night through Monday with no TSTMS
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...South to southwest winds will develop
on Tues and will increase ahead of approaching cold front. This
will drive seas up to 3 to 5 ft through Wed, but as the front
moves into area waters and possibly stalls late Wed, the winds
will veer slightly becoming more westerly. The off shore
component to the flow will keep highest seas well off the coast.