Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 180556 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 155 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Hurricane Jose will continue to lift off to the north leaving dry and warm weather across the Coastal Carolinas through much of the week. An increased rip current risk will continue from swells from Jose and then Maria by mid week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 600 PM Sunday...Quite a concentrated area of showers developed up near New Bern in the past couple of hours and is moving southward into Pender County now. Forecast PoPs have been updated in the Maple Hill and Surf City area southward through the tip of Cape Fear for higher rain chances for the next 2 hours. The loss of daytime heating should spell the end of this activity, with dry weather anticipated overnight. Sky cover forecasts have also been updated based on currently observed convection. Models are also showing another round of low stratus clouds developing over eastern North Carolina late tonight which should make it into the Wilmington/Cape Fear area late tonight around 5-6 AM and persist through 10-11 AM Monday. No other significant changes have been made to the forecast with this early evening update. Discussion from 300 PM follows... An isolated shower or two has popped up east of an Elizabethtown to Conway line early this afternoon, as well as and the potential for this type of activity will continue through max heating across the eastern CWA where there is sufficient moisture. Overnight, a northerly breeze will preclude significant fog development, but do anticipate some stratus, which should be most prominent across SE NC, with very little expected across the Pee Dee. On Monday, moisture profiles will be drier as Jose lifts north well off the Outer Banks. Expect mostly sunny skies and no PoPs under the influence of confluent flow aloft and subsidence. Otherwise, the rip current risk will remain elevated through Monday as a result of the incoming swell energy. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM Sunday...Mid level heights will slowly recover in the wake of the broad circulation of Jose through the period. By Wednesday morning expect a benign westerly flow aloft. A weak pressure pattern will prevail at the surface with if anything an extension of a broad and weak trough east of the Appalachians. Will continue to advertise a dry forecast through the period with highs mainly in the middle 80s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 PM Sunday...H5 pattern on Wednesday will be highlighted by Jose`s circulation near New England with a trough axis lagging back across the Mid-Atlantic westward into the MS valley. At the surface, weak high pressure will be the rule, reinforced by high pressure from the north late in the week. Only low-end POPs needed primarily for Thursday with sea breeze becoming active, otherwise building high pressure will preclude convective chances Friday. Depending on the low-level moisture transport, far in advance of the northwest side of Maria, there could be some showers that can move onshore in the northeasterly low-level fetch this weekend. However, weather for the upcoming weekend and early the following week will be highly dependent on Maria`s eventual track. Followed a blend of ECE and MEX numbers through the period. Lastly, the rip current risk will likely increase again by Wednesday as Maria` swells begin to impact the coast. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 06Z...Hurricane Jose is about 400 miles east of Cape Fear this evening and should continue to move northward with little impact on the area but will produce some gusty northerly winds right along the coast early today. Some patches of mid level clouds right around 8k ft across the area overnight, remaining in line with soundings and moisture profiles basically right under subsidence inversion with plenty of dry air above through the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. Looks like another round of low stratus will produce IFR ceilings this morning. May be somewhat more widespread than last night with soundings showing a saturated layer up to around 1200 ft with models indicating ceiling heights 500-800 ft mainly between 10z to 14z from ILM across to LBT and lower possibly as far south as CRE/MYR. Expect plenty of dry air and subsidence as winds back slightly from N to N-NW through the remainder of the TAF period on the back end of Jose as it moves north. Therefore VFR expected once stratus dissipates by around noon. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions through the period are expected with the exception of a few hours of early morning low clouds or fog most mornings through the period. The highest risk of IFR conditions will be in the 0900-1200Z timeframe.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 600 PM Sunday...Latest buoy observations from the NOAA and CORMP networks show the Wavewatch model is overestimating wave heights by about 1 foot, while the local SWAN/NWPS wave model is overestimating by 1-3 feet. Small downward adjustments have been made to forecast waves through the night and into Monday, but no changes are needed to the Small Craft Advisories. Forecast winds look good and no changes are needed at this time. Discussion from 300 PM follows... Long period swells (13 sec) emanating from Jose will continue to produce 5-8 ft seas through the night. The Small Craft Advisory will remain in place, which currently is in effect through 8 PM Monday. Latest WNA is suggesting the swells within 20 nm may fall below 6 feet south of Little River Inlet by Monday morning, which would allow the advisory to be lifted. However due to timing uncertainties, will not make adjustments with this forecast package. Northeast winds of 15 to 20 knots will continue into Monday morning, and back towards the north as Jose lifts north well off the Outer Banks. The gradient will weaken Monday afternoon and allow winds to diminish towards 10 knots. SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM Sunday...With a weak pressure gradient in place, winds will be somewhat benign. With a remaining fringe affect from the slow moving Jose, winds will be out of the northwest at generally ten knots or less, at least through early Tuesday. By about midday Tuesday, a southwest flow should develop with a slightly stronger range of 10-15 knots possible through Wednesday morning. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 215 PM Sunday...Weak high pressure will prevail through the long term period but will become better established from the north Thu into Fri. As a result, varying winds Wed into Thu will become east-northeasterly during Fri and increasing to around 15 knots. Seas will be a mix of residual easterly swell then increasing Maria swells by Wednesday. Maria`s swells will continue to build through the end of the week. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for SCZ054-056. NC...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for NCZ106-108- 110. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SRP NEAR TERM...TRA/CRM SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...TRA

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