-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 022254
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
555 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THEN A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A DRAMATIC WARM UP ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EVEN COLDER AIR MASS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING A VERY GRADUAL WARM UP AS WELL ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...WHAT A CHANGE FROM THIS MORNING TO THE CURRENT
SITUATION! A BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA...ONE
WHICH MAKES THIS FORECASTER A BIT JEALOUS TO BE SITTING INSIDE AT A
WORKSTATION! SKY CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME NEARLY CLEAR...AND TEMPS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE 60S ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WEAKLY
DEFINED COLD FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY VIA OBS AND
SATELLITE...BUT BEST GUESS IS THAT IT IS LOCATED E-W FROM JUST OFF
THE GEORGETOWN COUNTY COAST...WEST TOWARDS KINGSTREE...AND THEN BACK
FURTHER NEAR COLUMBIA. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH BUT
LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE COLD ADVECTION LAGS
WELL BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

WINDS WILL BECOME NE LATE THIS AFTN...AND AS COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS
TONIGHT NE WINDS WILL BECOME ELEVATED. THIS WILL DRIVE COLD
ADVECTION...FINALLY...BUT MINS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS
ONLY A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF CAA WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. AT THE
SAME TIME...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE W/SW AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290/295K SURFACES INCREASES. HAVE TRIMMED
POP BACK CONSIDERABLY FROM INHERITED...BUT STILL EXPECT A SLOW RAMP
UP TO SCHC BY TUESDAY MORNING. ONLY VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL QPF. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK/LATE CAA AND
THE INCREASING CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL ONLY ALLOW MINS TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S FAR NORTHERN ZONES...TO MID 40S ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL DURING TUESDAY
HOWEVER AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS MINS WILL PRIMARILY OCCUR IN THE
EVENING MOST LOCATIONS THEN TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WEDNESDAY. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. ANY SEA FOG THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE COOLER SHELF WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY SHOULD EASILY DISSIPATE DURING
THE MORNING AS THE WIND INCREASES. THE SOUTHERLY FETCH OVERRIDING
THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL ALSO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN ALONG
THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL BRUNSWICK AND SOUTHERN NEW
HANOVER COUNTIES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST DURING
WEDNESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES TO FOLLOW AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE PICTURE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOOKS LIKE THE LATEST GFS HOLDS MID TO
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY THURS WITH LOW
PRESSURE WAVE RIDING UP ALONG THE SFC FRONT WHICH IS STILL BACK OVER
EASTERN CAROLINAS THURS MORNING. THEREFORE IT LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY
WILL NOW START OUT VERY WARM IN SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY THROUGH BY NOON. THERE WILL BE MORE OF AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN WINDS
FROM SW TO N ONCE FRONT DROPS SOUTH. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF COASTAL CAROLINAS AND LOOKS LIKE MOST OF
PCP WILL COME ALONG AND BEHIND FRONT THROUGH THURS...MORE IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION ALONG FRONT AND STRATIFORM RAIN AS WARM SW WINDS ALOFT
RIDE OVER THE SHALLOW COOL AIR BEHIND SFC FRONT THURS AFTN. WARMEST
TEMPS ON THURS WILL BE EARLY MORNING BEFORE FROPA.

BY THURS NIGHT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST LEAVING A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE EAST WITH MORE OF ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS AND COLD NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT
THE AFC. THIS SHOULD HELP BRING PLENTY OF DRY AND COLD AIR INTO THE
AREA THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRI. PCP WATER VALUES UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES
THURS MORNING WILL DROP TO LESS THAN QUARTER OF AN INCH THURS NIGHT
THROUGH FRI. EXPECT DRY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY THE HIGH MOVES OFF SHORE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
WEAKENS. A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST AND THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR OTHER SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND
POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP SOME LOW END POPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
SHOWS GREATER CHC OF PCP ON SAT WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS ANY PCP OFF
UNTIL SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TEMPS WILL TAKE A DIVE ONCE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ON THURS WITH 850
TEMPS UP AROUND 12C THURS MORNING DROPPING DOWN NEAR 0C BY FRI
MORNING. THIS STRONG CAA AND POSSIBLY LINGERING CLOUDS AND PCP WILL
KEEP VERY COOL TEMPS FOR THURS AFTN INTO FRIDAY. AFTER MAX TEMPS
EARLY THURS TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S LATE THURS AND WILL REMAIN
ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP
BELOW FREEZING MOST PLACES BOTH THURS NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD. WITH MID TO UPPER TROUGH LINGERING
OVER THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH ANY SUNSHINE WILL HELP BRING THEM UP A NOTCH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 00Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWEST DOWN
THE COAST. THIS COULD BRIEFLY GIVE THE COASTAL TERMINALS AN MVFR
CEILING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. THIS BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. SOME OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PRECEDING IT. LOOK FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL TERMINALS
TUESDAY WITH EAST NORTHEAST FLOW. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR TUE MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR/SHOWERS TUE AFTN AND EVENING. SHOWERS LATE WED. RAIN/IFR THUR.
VFR DEVELOPING FRI AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTN...BUT A SLOW DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. COLD FRONT IS
SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS...AND WILL DROP COMPLETELY SOUTH OF
THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...BUT WILL REMAIN AT RELATIVELY LIGHT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS
UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN A NE SURGE DEVELOPS. THIS NE SURGE WILL SIGNAL
THE ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS
FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO
BUILD FROM THE CURRENT 2-4 FT...TO 4-6 FT...BEFORE FALLING AGAIN
TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING. SWAN GUIDANCE HAS A TENDENCY TO BUILD SEAS
A BIT TOO QUICKLY ON THESE NE SURGES...BUT SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE
BOTH ISSUED AN SCA FOR THEIR WATERS...SO HAVE OPTED TO ERR WITH
CAUTION AND GO AHEAD WITH THE SCA FROM ABOUT 10PM THROUGH 7AM
TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...NE TO E FETCH TUESDAY WILL VEER TO A SE TO S
WIND BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF A WARM FRONT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE AS THE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING WEDNESDAY.
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL HELP TO
DISSIPATE ANY SEA FOG BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS COULD POSSIBLE
INCREASE TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...LATEST MODELS HOLDING FROPA BACK AGAIN UNTIL
AROUND NOON TIME ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE WILL KEEP S-SW WINDS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THURS MORNING WITH SEAS UP TO 3 TO 6 FT. SHOULD SEE
AN FAIRLY ABRUPT WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO N BEHIND FRONT ON THURS.
STRONG CAA AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL KEEP SEAS UP TO 4 TO 7 FT
THROUGH THURS NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD KEEP A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THURS INTO FRI. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN THROUGH LATE FRI AND BECOME MORE
VARIABLE INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT SHIFTS
CLOSER OVERHEAD AND THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MAY SEE A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY....BUT
OVERALL EXPECT WINDS TO LIGHTEN AND SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA BY FRI
AFTN AND DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS OVER MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43