Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
097 FXUS62 KILM 070001 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 801 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather returns during the middle of the week after somewhat drier conditions Monday into Tuesday as the Bermuda High becomes the dominant feature generating local weather. && .UPDATE... The center of Chantal has cleared our area, heading north, leaving mostly north winds in NE SC and south winds in SE NC. What looks like one more band of showers is moving through, off of the Horry County coast and up through our coastal SE NC counties. Rain chances should then further diminish away from the coast into tonight. Updated 00Z aviation below. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... What`s left of Chantal will continue to move off to the north tonight while dissipating. With the exception of the few light bands streaming ashore in the Cape Fear region the precip looks about done for the day unless some wrap-around QPF manifests...starting to have doubt but will leave POPs as-is for now. Clearing skies will be gradual at first and then more pronounced after dark, possibly setting the area up for some fog if wind abates sufficiently. Monday`s weather map will feature a piedmont trough taking up residence behind Chantal and a shortwave traversing the NC/VA border. Where the forcing of the two align there should be a seasonable scattering of afternoon thunderstorms (mainly inland) but with a storm motion containing enough of an easterly component that all areas will have POPs. Convective coverage will taper slightly towards the coast where instability will be lower. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The Piedmont Trough remains in place on Tuesday, not unlike Monday. The mid level ridge overhead will be building slightly leaving us susceptible to fewer and weaker shortwaves. With temperatures on the rise though stronger instability should develop, offsetting the aforementioned argument for lesser convective coverage. The end result will be another afternoon of area-wide storms with coverage capped at about 40 percent. The increased instability has SPC highlighting the area in Marginal for severe as forecast soundings show the calling card of wet downbursts with healthy instability above a cu layer at 6kft and an inverted sounding below this layer. Tuesday`s HI values could take a run at advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The main mid level ridge will be offshore for most of the long term, with a secondary center well to our west. In the mid levels then this puts us in a local weakness in the height field. This should be enough to foster at least seasonable coverage of mainly afternoon thunderstorms (though persistent shortwave energy could allow for shallow convection to linger just about any night but this can be tough to forecast in the longer term) if not some rather unsettled mid to late week weather. With the added convective coverage the HI values should start to back away from advisory levels. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Veering of winds will continue until we become largely SW tonight. The last line of showers looks to be moving through now with impacts only expected at coastal terminals over the next hour or so. Gusts should drop out around midnight but some occasional ~20 kt gusts could pop up at coastal terminals overnight. Otherwise, my thoughts are that VFR should prevail with a low chances of sub-VFR CIGs at inland terminals. Winds should stay up to where fog shouldn`t be an issue, or at worst it should be patchy, but stratus may be possible. I`m not quite sure how low things could get or how extensive it will be, but IFR may be on the table if it develops. Any restrictions should clear up ~12-14Z where we`ll have SW winds ~10 kts gusting ~20 kts, coastal terminals becoming more southerly in the afternoon with the sea breeze which will bring a chance of showers/storms. Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions possible Monday through Wednesday due to daytime convection and potential early morning fog/stratus. && .MARINE... Through Monday... Tropical headlines lowered SCA, as is usually the case as wind and seas both abate more slowly than tropical threats as they exit northward. As what`s left of Chantal continues to move away from the area our NW quickly turn back to SW and then S today all while abating. SCA to drop tonight as SW wind looks to dominate the forecast as Bermuda High takes over. Monday through Thursday... Little to disturb the Bermuda High through the period, it`s resulting SWrly flow slightly bolstered by semi-permanent Piedmont Trough. A longer period SErly swell will be present along with the shorter period wind chop. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: Southerly waves associated with former Tropical Storm Chantal will diminish in height Monday but will likely retain enough energy to produce a high risk of rip currents on the south facing beaches of Brunswick County, NC and the northern half of Horry County, SC. North of Cape Fear, Chantal`s diminishing waves will be joined by a new 14-15 second easterly swell that will help keep the rip current risk high there. Surfers will be disappointed by smaller wave heights developing by Tuesday but casual beachgoers should find safer surf conditions by then. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for NCZ106-108-110. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for SCZ054. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...LEW NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...LEW MARINE...ILM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...