Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 230229 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1029 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend along the East Coast through Thursday, maintaining comfortable conditions. A return to seasonable warmth and humidity, along with isolated thunderstorms will return this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 1015 pm Monday...No POPs in the near term period as well as subsequent ones. The sc/ac clouds have pretty much scoured out, leaving the high level ci to sporadically advect across the FA overnight. Much of it will be thin and therefore cloud coverage has been reduced for the majority of the overnight period with the exception of possible opaque cirrus every once and awhile. A secondary sfc cool front or trof will migrate from north to south across the ILM CWA late this evening and overnight. In its wake, will start to feel the effects of the ridging from the high centered over the NE States overnight into subsequent periods. Will see a push of lower dewpoints with widespread 60s encompassing the FA with even a few upper 50s across the far nw portions of the FA, by daybreak Tue. For low temps, will see widespread 60s, with around 70 along the immediate coast and also the most southern portions of the ILM CWA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 3 PM Monday...The mid level ridge that will have been suppressed to the south builds back to the north through the period and somewhat to the west as well. The column remains moisture challenged as PWs hover just above and even on a few occasions below one inch. As for surface features, it will primarily be high pressure centered from the Delmarva region extending to the south and west along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. Guidance is once again in good agreement on what will be essentially a temperature forecast. Expect highs in the middle to upper 80s both days (slightly warmer Wednesday) with overnight lows in mostly in the middle to upper 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 3 PM Monday...Thursday brings a weakening high well to our northeast and a huge mid level ridge just west of the area. Expect full sunshine but also temperatures a few degrees shy of climatology due to the low level NE flow. By Thursday night into Friday the surface high is no longer discernible but the upper ridging holds fast. This should allow for a gradual warming trend borne more of solar modification of the airmass rather than thermal advection. This will hold true Sunday and Monday as well though the mid level ridge flattens some. Moisture will be the bigger question late in the period. Very low POPs for diurnal convection can still be argued for from a climatological standpoint but there`s little in any guidance to support them due to the mid level ridge and lack of any significant southerly component in the boundary layer.
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&& .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 00Z...The few diurnal Cu that developed this afternoon are dissipating with the loss of daytime heating. The dry airmass associated with high pressure centered over the NE States will yield VFR conditions through 00Z Wednesday, along with a light NE wind overnight. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR conditions thru the period.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1015 PM Monday...A secondary cool front or trof will push southward across the area waters late this evening and overnight. This will result in easterly 5 to 10 kt winds backing to the ne and increasing to 10 to 15 kt with some gusts up to 20 kt by daybreak. Significant seas will run 2 ft or less initially, then build to around 3 ft by daybreak Tue. Would not be surprised to see 4 footers across the outer waters 15 to 20 nm out by daybreak Tue. Very little in the way of a long period ground swell to affect the local waters. Significant seas will mainly be a function of local wind driven waves in the 3 to 5 second period range. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Monday...Expect very consistent conditions across the coastal waters through the period. The theme will be northeast winds mainly on the higher end of a 10-15 knot range with seas of 3-4 feet. The highest winds, which should occur Wednesday afternoon may eclipse the 15 knot range for a few hours especially across the outer waters. I wouldn`t rule out a few five foot seas here as well but these should be somewhat few and far between. LONG TERM/THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...Thursday will still be bringing an atypical NE flow due to large high pressure centered well to our NE. Winds will slacken Thursday night into Friday as this high washes out. Later Friday there will be veering from NE to SE and then by Saturday some variability in direction should crop up though E should be the predominant flow direction. 2-3 ft seas early in the period will drop to minimal values Friday and Saturday.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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As of 300 AM Monday...Wilmington has now tied its all-time record for consecutive days with low temperatures of 70 degrees or warmer established back in 2012. We should make it through midnight tonight remaining above 70 degrees which means we`ll break this record by at least one day. Our forecast low Tuesday morning is 68 degrees which, if correct, would end the string of consecutive days at 57. Wilmington temperature records began in 1874. Wilmington`s Consecutive Days with Low Temperatures 70+ degrees #1 56 days 6/29/2012 to 8/23/2012 #1 56 days 6/27/2016 to 8/21/2016 <--still going! #3 52 days 6/22/1941 to 8/12/1941 #4 48 days 7/ 6/1986 to 8/22/1986 #5 46 days 6/28/1991 to 8/12/1991
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...CRM CLIMATE...tra

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