Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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144 FXUS62 KILM 191140 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 740 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Mostly clear skies and a warming trend are expected into the weekend, as a dry upper ridge builds across the region. An approaching cold front will bring a few showers on Tuesday, before moving offshore Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 211 AM Thursday...Though a moderate trough axis and vorticity center crosses the region today, the column is simply too dry for any notable meteorological effects as the result of any lift it provides. At the surface high pressure will remain centered to our north bringing a NE wind, though the high will be closer than recent days and the wind lighter. Low level baroclinicity is very weak so the paltry sense of cold advection in the NE flow will be offset by insolation and afternoon temperatures will warm into the upper 70s. With lighter winds tonight however temperatures will be a bit cooler than those of today`s predawn lows. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 211 AM Thursday...A dry and warm short-wave upper ridge of notable amplitude will migrate east, and anchor off the coast this period. Associated subsidence will maintain a particularly dry column, while promoting a daytime warming trend into 80s over many inland spots Friday and Saturday. The aridity will sustain large diurnal temperature ranges, as clearing overnight leads to efficient radiational cooling and seasonably cool fall mornings, with surface high pressure nearly overhead. As the center of the high slips offshore late Saturday, return air flow off the Atlantic will bring increasing low level moisture and marine clouds into very early Sunday, and minimums at daybreak will be considerably higher than previous dawns. Patchy fog along the coastal interior seems plausible early on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...A highly amplified H5 pattern will prevail at the onset of the long term period with ridging across the Eastern United States. At the surface, high pressure will also continue to ridge across the forecast area as it departs the Mid-Atlantic Region. As a result, dry weather will continue as temperatures warm a few categories above normal through the weekend into early next week. Eventually the H5 and surface ridges lose control as an upper trough and surface low push eastward. Give this system`s current progression it appears that there will be a good chance of storms during Tuesday with a lowering in temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday as surface high pressure builds back into the region. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 12Z...High confidence of VFR through 20/00Z. Some stratocumulus cigs this morning for a few hours near KILM otherwise clouds will be sct through this TAF valid period. N-NE winds at 5-10 kts expected, except becoming east KCRE/KMYR this afternoon. After 00Z, with clear skies and light winds conditions will be favorable for fog development. Moisture is very limited and will just indicate MVFR vsbys for now at the most favorable times 10-12Z. Fog could certainly develop sooner at coastal stations where moisture is more favorable. Extended Outlook...Tempo MVFR/showers Mon. Otherwise VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 612 AM Thursday...The SCA was replaced with a SCEC for the 0-20 NM waters. Seas up to 5 ft offshore and gusts to 20 kt will be common this morning. As of 211 AM Thursday...Long fused NE surge to finally abate today as high pressure sinks southward and a little closer to the region. This should ease the gradient sufficiently to allow the Advisory- worthy 6 ft seas to exit the 20 nm CWF boundary and no changes to the headlines are planned. Wind to remain out of the NE during the overnight hours and may even settle to around 10kt. Wind wave energy will wane allowing for a continued settling of waves though WNA continues to show a dominant period of 8-9 seconds in the NE swell. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 211 AM Thursday...An improving marine trend, as winds and seas decrease, generally NE-E through the period. Winds will veer to E in the afternoons inshore, then back to NE at night generally 15 kt or less. Wave energy from the E with dominant periods of 8-9 seconds. A dry atmosphere remains in place so no TSTMS this period. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...High pressure is expected to shift farther off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday, allowing the flow to veer onshore. Southeast flow will further turn becoming southerly during Monday as an area of low pressure treks from the Gulf Coast to the western Carolinas. Small Craft Advisory conditions may be reached late Monday in the strengthening southerly flow. Seas will be 3-4 ft through much of the period given the duration and size of the onshore fetch around the periphery of the aforementioned high pressure. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 211 AM Thursday...Spring tides to continue to lead to very marginal minor flooding close to this month`s new moon, which comes today. Yesterday morning guidance was almost a half- foot over done on the Cape Fear River at downtown. Was tempted to not hoist Advisory this morning but given the full moon think we have the 80 percent confidence level to go ahead. At Wrightsville beach the current forecast is for tide to barley just reach the 6.0 MLLW value needed for an advisory. Given the positive error of guidance recently however any error with this tide will keep the water level shy of minor flooding so will not issue for the beach at this time. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ107. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...MRR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.