Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 141439 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 939 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonable weather returns this afternoon and will last through the weekend with only a brief cool down on Saturday. Low pressure approaching from the Gulf will bring an increasing chance of rain, and a warming trend through early next week. A cold front will push through the area by mid week with drier weather to follow. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 940 AM Thursday...sunny skies today over out part of the world with very dry conditions aloft with precipitable waters of 0.25 to 0.36 inches. At the surface the 24 hours dewpoint change is around 12 degrees along the coast. The brisk winds overnight will continue to weaken by the afternoon. With the westerly flow high temperatures are expected to reach into the 60 -63The shortwave will move off the coast later this morning leaving a more westerly flow across the area. This deep westerly flow will help temps rise up near 60 degrees for high today. High pressure will build down behind cold front through tonight with a light northerly flow reaching down into the Carolinas. As winds drop off tonight, expect better radiational cooling conditions with only a few clouds expected. This will produce a cool night with temps dropping into the mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday...Some changes in the longwave pattern aloft this period, with the question of whether it becomes established for a time. The large amplitude upper trough affecting the FA at the start of this week, has mellowed out by the time this period commences. Models indicate active northern and southern branches of the jet stream that will meet overhead across the FA at the start of this period but then models have the northern stream retreat back to the Mid-Atlantic states and the NE States by the end of this period. This leaves the southern branch of the jetstream to expand northward. At the sfc, models indicate a stalled front well south and east of the FA at the start of this period. A s/w mid-level flow tracking east-southeast will develop a sfc low just off the Carolina Coasts early Fri along with it`s associated frontal system. The sfc low will accelerate northeast away from the FA Fri aftn and night. Progged Sounding moisture profiles indicate some mid and upper level moisture however, the low levels remain dry. As a result, will continue with no pcpn. In it`s wake, clearing skies with CAA occurring across the FA thru early Sat before becoming Neutral. This will just re- enforce the cold air across the FA from the recent CFP prior to this period. Thus, temperatures for both days will near the seasonable norms for this time period with mins at or just below the norms and the maxes at or just above the norms. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 PM Wednesday...Expect a warming trend into early next week, as ridging aloft ensues. GFS and ECMWF differ on timing and strength of ejected Baja short-wave Sunday, but both agree on a milder and wetter pattern after the weekend. The first chance of rain by Sunday night, as this features ejects offshore early Monday. Despite ECMWF/GFS differences thresholdswith sea heights up to 4 to 7 ft across the local waters. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect until noon today. This tightened gradient flow ahead of a weak cold front will diminish this afternoon to 10 to 15 kts as winds veering around to the west. As high pressure builds down behind the front tonight, winds will veer further to the N-NW. Monday into Tuesday, it seems we can infer a mild pattern prevailing and rain chances ahead of an upper trough, that in both models appears along the east coast next Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 12Z...High confidence of VFR through 15/12Z. LLWS should abate in several hours this morning as low level wind speeds weaken. Surface winds today will be SW-W around 10 kt with clear skies. A cold front will cross KLBT this evening and move to near a KFLO/KILM line overnight. Mid level clouds expected with mid-level cigs possible at times KFLO-KLBT overnight. Winds will shift to the NW-NE but be

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