Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 271036 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 636 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...THE NE-SW ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE A BIT FURTHER EAST OF THE CAROLINA COASTS THIS PERIOD. THIS BASICALLY OPENS UP THE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOISTURE NO LONGER THE PROBLEM. WHAT IT ALSO DOES...IT ALLOWS WEAK MID- LEVEL S/W TROFS OR VORTS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT TO NOW PUSH ACROSS THE FA. COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT REACHED THE CWA FROM THE WEST FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION...WILL RESULT IN A BONAFIDE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...VIA PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS...INCREASING AVBL CAPE COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS NOW AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION TO FEED OFF OF. AS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS...BASICALLY STAYED WITH A CONSENSUS OF MODEL MOS GUIDANCE WHICH BASICALLY LIES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF CLIMO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... ONSHORE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THURSDAY PAIRED WITH 5KT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. ISOLATED CONVECTION WELL INLAND AS SEA BREEZE STABILIZES COASTAL LOCALES AND THE BOUNDARY MAKES GOOD INLAND PROGRESS. SMALL CHANGES ON FRIDAY WITH ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH RIDGING BACK MORE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE MID RIDGE TRIES TO TAKE SHAPE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, IF ANY MAY BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT BEING IN THE FORECAST AT ALL. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS THINGS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS QUITE WEAK AND JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. MARINE INFLUENCES APPEAR TO KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS RAIN-FREE DUE TO STABILITY BUT ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION REMAINS TOUGH TO RULE OUT INLAND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY ENCROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD TEMPER AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT WHILE ADDED CLOUD COVER MAY ADD A FEW TO LOWS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL EVER SO SLIGHTLY. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. IN FACT...IT IS FAIRLY SATURATED TO 700 MB. IT WILL NOT TAKE TOO MUCH HEATING TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ONLY TWO OR THREE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE WEST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY 17Z WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS PUSHING INLAND. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL END A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER MAX HEATING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...THE NE TO SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE HIGH SEAS EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WILL LIE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS BEFORE EXTENDING INTO THE US MAINLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN SC AND GA. THIS ORIENTATION WILL RESULT WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO THE SE FLOW FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. AS FOR SPEEDS...STILL LOOKING AT 10 TO OCCASIONALLY 15 KT...WITH A SOLID 15 KT NEARSHORE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE INLAND PROGRESSING SEA BREEZE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AT A NEARLY SOLID 3 FT WITH PERIODS IN THE 6 TO 7 SECONDS...MAKING IT A PSEUDO ESE GROUND SWELL AT BEST. WITH AN EXCELLENT FETCH...THIS PSEUDO SWELL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GROW INTO A TRUE ESE-SE GROUND SWELL WITH PERIODS INCREASING 8 TO 9 SECONDS. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY BRINGS ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS QUITE FAR OFFSHORE WHILE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. A MIX OF WIND WAVE AND SWELL WILL YIELD 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. FRIDAY WILL BRING JUST A SLIGHT VEER TO EASTERLY WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LOW. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SEAS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE DURING THE SHORT TERM REMAINS FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM BUT PULLS ITS RIDGE AXIS FROM BEING TO PROMINENTLY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED AT 10 KTS AND THERE MAY BE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE OTHERWISE ONSHORE FLOW SINCE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE WEAKENED.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DL

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