Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 191843 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 243 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING A SHOT OF AUTUMN TONIGHT WITH A GOOD WARM UP INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET DAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY IN THE MID 60S ATTM. THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. WITH A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS DEVELOPING LATER ON...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 60S...WITH A FEW AREAS REACHING 70...BEFORE BEGINNING THEIR GRADUAL DESCENT FOR THE DAY. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS FOCUS TURNS TO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL TO AROUND 40 DEGREES INLAND WITH LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST AS WINDS REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS INLAND DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...DESPITE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...TANGIBLE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES BY DAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S MONDAY AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY. MINS EACH NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NW TO THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE COAST. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH STRONG UPPER SUPPORT. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...STACKED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THU AND FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW A SLOW BUT STEADY WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION AS THE 5H LOW EXITS WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS MAINTAINS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW CLIMO WED BUT WILL BE NEAR CLIMO FRI AND A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EVEN THE BULK OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE BEEN KEEPING THIS FEATURE WEAK WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT DROPS SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN AN OCCASIONAL RUN WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIES THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED 5H LOW AND A SFC LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OR OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL. FOR NOW DISCOUNTING THIS GIVEN THE LIMITED SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 18Z...ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. TODAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVER THE AREA AFTER 18Z. LIGHT/VRBL WINDS TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS. NO FOG ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AROUND 5 KT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...ALLOWING FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN. SEAS AROUND 3 TO 5 FT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME 2 TO 4 FEET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY MONDAY THEN QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND REMAIN WEAK. SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS WITH THE STRONGER VORT TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE AND BY AROUND 0600 UTC WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FAVORING THE HIGHER VALUES LATE. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN VALLEY. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM A SOLID 15 KT WED MORNING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY FRI. OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...XXXI NEAR TERM...SGL SHORT TERM...XXXI LONG TERM...III AVIATION...BJR

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