Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 261959 CCA AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 359 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND REMAINING FOR WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY... LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN IS IN THE MIDST OF EVOLVING BACK TO THE WINTER TIME UPPER PATTERN THE FA HAS EXPERIENCED THRUOUT THE 2014-2015 WINTER. TO GET TO THAT POINT...AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN ALOFT IS TAKING SHAPE WITH A DEEP FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROF BEING CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...ALONG WITH A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE ILM CWA COME FRIDAY DAYBREAK. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING TO THE SE TONIGHT... REACHING THE NW DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM CWA BY DAYBREAK FRI. A FAST MOVING MID-LEVEL S/W TROF IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF THIS AFTERNOON...PICKING UP SOME GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...AND THEN RACE TO THE NE ACROSS THE ILM CWA DURING THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS. COMBINED WITH FRONTAL DYNAMICS...AND MOISTURE ALREADY RESIDING ACROSS THE FA...PCPN SHOULD BOTH DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE ILM CWA RESULTING WITH INCREASING POPS FROM LOW CHANCE THIS EVENING TO NEARLY CATEGORICAL BY DAYTIME FRI MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR LATE TONIGHT INDICATE SOME JUICE...IE. CAPE...WILL BECOME AVAILABLE AND THUS OPTED TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY AFTER 4 AM FRI. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL REMAIN BALMY...WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM CWA. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. FRONT SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF MIDDAY AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY EVENING. A VORT SWINGING THROUGH AT H5 MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE NIGHT LAGS THE MOISTURE. SHOULD THE MOISTURE HOLD ON LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST OR SHOULD THE COLD AIR ARRIVE SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...PARTS OF THE AREA COULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN IF IT DOES SNOW...THE WARM GROUND SHOULD MELT IT VERY QUICKLY. MAXIMUMS FRIDAY OF 60 TO 65 WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT YIELDING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BUT THE EXACT NUMBERS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH WIND WE HAVE OVERNIGHT. SHOULD THE WIND REMAIN UP...FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE REACHED. SHOULD THE WIND FALL OUT MORE THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...A SIGNIFICANT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. A FREEZE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECAST UPDATES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO MORE PROGRESSIVE DURING THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD SUN MORNING WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING SUN NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT ALOFT FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A NARROW RIBBON OF INCREASED MOISTURE AS IT PASSES LATE MON BUT THE FRONT LACKS DYNAMICS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CONVERGENCE SHOWER OR TWO BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA SEEMS UNLIKELY. PLAN TO ADD A SLIGHT CHC POP MON/MON NIGHT BUT WILL KEEP NUMBERS CAPPED AT 20. FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE AND WED WITH MODIFYING HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE AREA. DEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY CLOUD FREE AND VOID OF PRECIP INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FRONT EVENTUALLY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. HAVE ADDED SILENT POP FOR LATE WED NIGHT AND ON THU GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WARM SECTOR CONVECTION THU AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO SUN THROUGH TUE WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO WED AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THU. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...PRECIPITATION HAS PULLED NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THINGS GET A BIT UNCERTAIN AFTER THIS EVENING. THE NAM INTRODUCES SEA FOG BUT THE GFS DOES NOT. REGARDLESS...THINGS WILL GO DOWNHILL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT POTENT COLD FRONT APPROACHES...ACCOMPANIED BY A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. WITH INCREASINGLY DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH THE ATM COLUMN...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT... BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BY DAYBREAK FRI. HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR A SHORT PERIOD DURING LATE TONIGHT INTO DAYTIME FRI MORNING. LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAYTIME FRI MORNING HOURS. LOOKING AT FROPA AT THE INLAND TERMINALS 15-16Z...17-18Z FOR THE COASTAL TERMS. POST FRONTAL...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE SE-S WINDS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY HAVE ALREADY EXCITED THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO A 3 TO 6 FT RANGE...UP TO 7 FT OFF CAPE FEAR. THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SSW-SW WINDS IN THE CURRENT 10-15 KT RANGE...WILL RAMP BACK UP TO A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PG WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT A TEMPORARY SUBSIDING TREND WITH THE SIG. SEAS THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 TO 5 FT...BUT SHOULD BUILD BACK UP TO A 4 TO 6 FT RANGE...UP TO 7 FT OFF CAPE FEAR. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE SIG. SEAS...WITH NO GROUND SWELL TO SPEAK OF. THEREFORE...AVERAGE PERIODS WILL RUN 5 TO 6 SECONDS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP BACK UP ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI. WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF SEA FOG...EITHER FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OR MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY...SHIFTING THE WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO RESIDUAL HIGHER SEAS FROM THE PREFRONTAL FLOW. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KNOTS. THIS WILL PERSIST FOR SOME TIME AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM 4 TO 6 FT FRIDAY MORNING TO 2 TO 3 FT BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING OVER THE WATERS SUN WILL MOVE EAST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. APPROACH OF COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER MON/MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A BUMP IN SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE DAY. GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT SPEEDS COULD APPROACH 20 KT FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. LACK OF COLD ADVECTION AND PINCHED GRADIENT FOLLOWING FROPA WILL KEEP OFFSHORE FLOW 15 KT OR LESS LATE MON NIGHT AND UNDER 10 KT ON TUE. CURRENTLY APPEARS ONLY POTENTIAL FOR HEADLINES WOULD BE DURING BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW MON BUT LIMITED DURATION OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS IS LIKELY TO KEEP SEAS UNDER 6 FT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...XXXI NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...XXXI LONG TERM...III AVIATION...DCH/DL

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