Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 281913 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 313 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT. A COUPLE OF DRY FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL REAPPEAR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MORNING`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE NOW WELL OFFSHORE. NEW ISOLATED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN THE PEE DEE REGION MAINLY DUE TO SUNSHINE PRODUCING STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE UNCAPPED INSTABILITY INLAND. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED QUITE WEAK SO FAR...PROBABLY OWING TO SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR THAT HAS ADVECTED IN AS LOW AS 7000 FEET AGL. THROUGH SUNSET THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED. A FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDING FROM NEAR DANVILLE VA TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH CAROLINA NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IS MOVING EASTWARD AND MAY LINK UP WITH THIS FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MODELS PAINT A VARIETY OF POSSIBILITIES...BUT IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY MAY FORM A SMALL MCS BETWEEN 5-7 PM...MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE MID- LEVEL WIND AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT DOWN INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. DOES THIS MCS BECOME A BIG ENOUGH SYSTEM TO MAKE A BIG RIGHT TURN AND FOLLOW THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS CONTOURS INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS SOME SYSTEMS DO? WHILE SOME OF THE 00Z HIGH RES MODELS SUGGESTED THIS...IT NOW APPEARS THIS POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS DOESN`T MEAN DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST...AND IN FACT MOST MODELS DO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING. MY FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM 20-30 PERCENT NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER TO ABOUT 50 PERCENT FROM ELIZABETHTOWN TO BURGAW. AFTER MIDNIGHT DRIER AIR SHOULD ADVECT SOUTHWARD AS THE SURFACE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...WITH THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN FLORENCE! THE SEABREEZE WILL BE DELAYED BY THE OFFSHORE WIND AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE BEACHES TO WARM TO 80 DEGREES OR BETTER BEFORE THE SEABREEZE FINALLY FORMS AROUND 2-3 PM. WINDS WILL BE QUICK TO VEER EASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BEHIND THIS FRONT DOES NOT BUILD APPRECIABLY SOUTHWARD. THIS VEERING LOW- LEVEL WIND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...LEADING TO GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY. IT`S WORTH NOTING THE 12Z NAM IS MUCH MORE MOIST (AND CLOUDIER) AND THEREFORE MUCH COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS. GIVEN THE COOL EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND PREDICTED ON BOTH MODELS THE 12Z GFS HIGHS LOOK TOO WARM REGARDLESS OF WHAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TURNS OUT TO BE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND EVENTUALLY THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY. AS MOISTURE DEEPENS THIS COULD LEAD TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF I-95...PERHAPS BECOMING A BIT MORE NUMEROUS SATURDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME SEMBLANCE OF POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WPC CONTINUES TO PREFER A SOLUTION WITH A GOOD DEAL OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES MIXED IN. THE GFS IS GENERALLY DRIER. A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD GIVE SURFACE FEATURES MORE PUSH. THE HIGHEST POPS OCCUR SUNDAY WITH AN INITIAL WAVE AND TUESDAY WHEN A SECOND WAVE MOVES BY. CERTAINLY NO EXTENDED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED BUT WPC QPF FOR DAYS 4-7 ARE NEAR TWO INCHES. TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS TRENDED DOWN A LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE BUT STILL OVERALL AVERAGES ARE ABOVE NORMAL.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...AREA OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING AFFECTED ALL THE TERMINALS EXCEPT LBT...BUT THIS HAS MOVED OFFSHORE LEAVING DRY WEATHER WITH CLEARING SKY CONDITIONS. POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TSTMS HAS DECREASED THIS AFTN/EVE...AND HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY TONED DOWN POTENTIAL IN CURRENT TAF SET...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTM AT LBT/FLO AS SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS INLAND. HAVE INDICATED TEMPO MVFR...BUT BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER WHICH WILL NEED TO BE HANDLED WITH SHORT AMDS IF NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WHICH HAVE BEEN VARIABLE WILL RETURN TO THE SW WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS AND GUSTS 15-20 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING. DIURNAL TSTMS AND CLOUD COVER WILL WANE AFTER DARK...BUT AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH...AN AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY DROP SE TOWARDS LBT/ILM. ATTM EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN N/NE OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH AT ILM ONLY WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE EXPECTED CONVECTION. OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS...ESPECIALLY INLAND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER DESPITE FAVORABLE NEAR-SURFACE HYDROLAPSE RATES...BUT HAVE ADDED MVFR INLAND ALONG WITH SOME STRATUS. AT THE COAST FOG CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER. COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AND A RAPID EROSION OF ANY FOG/CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING. VFR WITH NW WINDS AND ONLY A FEW SCATTERED CU IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...A FRONT STALLED IN NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL GET A KICK SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT...PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE DELAYED THE HEATING THAT WOULD HAVE OCCURRED AND THIS HAS LED TO LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS THAN WAS INITIALLY EXPECTED. ENOUGH SUN SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO GET WINDS UP TO SSW 15 KNOTS...WITH SW 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS A CLUSTER OF STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN RALEIGH AND GREENSBORO MOVES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN UP TOWARD THE CRYSTAL COAST...THERE`S A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS NEAR CAPE FEAR BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH LESSER CHANCES SOUTHWARD. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WILL USHER IN LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS FRIDAY MORNING. WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...INTENSE SOLAR HEATING INLAND SHOULD HELP DEVELOP AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WITH NEARSHORE WINDS TURNING ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT DOESN`T DIG SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS...ALLOWING WINDS TO QUICKLY VEER EASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...A MODEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL INITIALLY BE IN PLACE SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. BY MONDAY A FRONT MOVING CLOSER INCREASES THE GRADIENT AND BACKS THE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST A BIT. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS. THE FRONT EASES ACROSS EARLY TUESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING ESSENTIALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET. THERE COULD BE A FEW FIVE FOOTERS MIXED IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY AS WELL.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...JDW

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