Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 230549 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1249 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT... BRINGING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BRINGS DROPPING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GULF STATES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 1248 AM FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OFF OR RISE A DEGREE OR 2 INTO DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...AS VARIABLE CLOUDS AND MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOWEST KILOMETER PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. A FEW LOCALS MAY HAVE ALREADY WITNESSED THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OVERNIGHT. AT DAYBREAK EXPECT 40S ACROSS THE REGION AND NE WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...DYNAMIC FORECAST PERIOD AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EVOLVES ALONG THE GULF COAST AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM POSES A VARIETY OF CHALLENGES RANGING FROM A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE COAST...TO A POSSIBLE LARGE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES INLAND TO THE BEACHES GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE COASTAL FRONT...AND THE AMOUNT/DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND UVVS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING FRIDAY SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL POPS LATER IN THE DAY AND THE EVENING. THE COASTAL FRONT WILL MOVE NEAR THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PROJECTED TO BE NEAR AN IMPRESSIVE 1.5 INCHES. REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK RETAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR COASTAL SECTIONS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE NON-EXISTENT BUT ENOUGH WIND SHEAR WORTHY OF KEEPING AN EYE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MIGRATES BY. IF THE LOW TRACKS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THEN THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...WITH THE STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY OFF THE COAST. QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST WITH THE AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 1 INCH INLAND TO 2 INCHES AT THE COAST. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL DECREASE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW EXITS FARTHER TO THE N-NE AND DOWN-SLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES AS THE LOW MOVES BY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SATURDAY AS THE DRYING OCCURS. LOWS BACK INTO THE 30S BY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM WHILE MUCH OF THE REST OF THE COLUMN BRINGS A DRY WESTERLY WIND. EXPECT AMPLE SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. AS THIS MOISTURE-DEPRIVED CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR SUCCESSIVELY COLDER PUSHES OF AIR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORTUNATELY WE DO NOT GET INTO ARCTIC AIR BUT TEMPS BELOW CLIMO NONETHELESS. PERHAPS NOTEWORTHY ARE THE MONDAY DAY AND THE TUESDAY NIGHT COOL SURGE WHICH WILL BOTH BE ACCOMPANIED BY DECENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. THE FORMER WRINGS OUT SOME MINOR QPF OVER CAPE FEAR AND POINTS NORTH. USUALLY ITS PREFERABLE TO HAVE SUCH VORT CENTERS CUTTING TO YOUR SOUTH FOR APPRECIABLE PRECIP CHANCES SO WILL CAP AT SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME. THE CHILLY SURFACE HIGH MAY INCH JUST ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR SLIGHT MODERATION ON THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR LATER TODAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT OF THE GULF AND OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 6-10 KT THIS MORNING ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. -RA SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE MORNING AT KFLO/KMYR/KCRE AND AROUND MIDDAY AT KILM/KLBT...WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR AS PCPN SATURATES THE LOWER LEVELS. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS FL/GA THIS AFTN...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND CIGS WILL FURTHER LOWER TO AROUND 1KFT...POSSIBLY EVEN DROPPING TO IFR LEVELS. EAST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20 KT WILL PREVAIL AFTER 18Z AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH ONSHORE THROUGH THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY 00Z SAT...BRINGING SOUTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT TO THESE SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED TSRA ALONG THE COAST IN THE WARM SECTOR...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST INCLUDE SHRA. HEAVIER PCPN WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS INTO TONIGHT...ALONG WITH IFR CIGS ESPECIALLY ISLAND. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR CIGS SAT MORNING WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY SAT EVENING. VFR ON SUN. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MON WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR ON TUE.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1248 AM FRIDAY...MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND CONTINUES. GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS BY MORNING. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 2-4 FEET AND WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS TO 3-5 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DURING FRIDAY AND ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. OPTED TO RAISE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A RESULT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE COAST WILL INCREASE THE WIND...AND DURING FRIDAY THE FETCH WILL BE DIRECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVEWATCH OUTPUT APPEARED TO BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE...REGARDLESS SEAS STILL INCREASE TO 7 TO 9 FT NEAR THE OUTER CAPE FEAR WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL EXIST AS WELL AS THE LOW MOVES BY THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS AND VERY ROUGH SEA STATE NEAR ANY OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BACK IN DIRECTION ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STORM ITSELF PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY BUT THE COOL SURGE IT BRINGS COULD RAISE WINDS CLOSE TO SCEC HEADLINE THRESHOLDS. MEANWHILE THE CONTINUATION OF OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPS THE LARGEST SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE 20NM ZONES. ADDITIONAL VEERING ON TUESDAY AS STEP-WISE COOL AIR PUSHES ENSUE BUT OVERALL WINDS APPEAR TO BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...8 NEAR TERM...8 SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...BJR/8

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