Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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872 FXUS62 KILM 031818 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 118 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND PUSH INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT AND THEN STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE RISK OF MORE PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH HORRY COUNTY AND THIS AREA IS PROGGED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTH OF THE AREA BY 20 UTC. THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION IS FORECASTED BY THE 17 UTC HRRR TO ENTER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 23 UTC AND WORK ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CEASE AND SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND THE SLOW MOTION OF THE FRONT THE AREA HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST. ALSO... THE AREA CONTINUES IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...THE SHEAR IS STILL FORECASTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION BUT THE LIMITED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL HAMPER ENHANCE CONVECTION. EVEN WITH THIS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE WIND REPORT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AN ELONGATED MOISTURE FEED WILL EXTEND ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE WAITING ON A DECENT MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST FOR THE FINAL PUSH OFFSHORE. OVERALL I INCREASED POPS THURSDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS VIA A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SCENARIO WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD WANE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. FOR FRIDAY EXPECT SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AND A COLD BLUSTERY DAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOWER 50S. CLEAR AND COLD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...INTERESTING AND ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SATURDAY WILL BE UNEVENTFUL ENOUGH WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING BASICALLY EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS IS MOST INTERESTING AND COLDER WITH SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE VIA OUR STATE OF THE ART TOP DOWN METHODOLOGIES. THE LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION VIA CONSISTENCY IS ADVERTISING A COLD RAIN. THE SYSTEM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COULD SPELL TROUBLE BY ITSELF IF THE ANTICIPATED QPF AMOUNTS COME CLOSE WITH THE CURRENT EVENT. BEYOND THIS... SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST TROUGHING DEVELOPS SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE COLD AIR. A POWERFUL VORT THAT WILL BRING THE COLDEST OF AIR LATE COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A SYSTEM FOR THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE COLD SIDE WITH A VERY TEPID AND BRIEF WARMUP MONDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 18Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BECOME WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH 31 KTS ALREADY MEASURED AT KILM WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. VFR/MVFR PREVAILS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...LOW CIGS...AND AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY OFFSHORE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. BECOMING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AREA BLOWING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH SEAS RUNNING 3 TO 5 FEET NEAR SHORE TO 5 TO 7 FEET AT 20 MILES OFF THE COAST. SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FEET RANGE. THUS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THURSDAY AS A FRONT TRUDGES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTHEAST AS THE DAY CONCLUDES. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS. BY EARLY FRIDAY SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER FOR A FEW HOURS TO JUST OVER 25 KNOTS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH ALL THE WHILE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL DECREASE FROM SMALL CRAFT VALUES THURSDAY THEN INCREASE CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE INCREASING WIND FIELDS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...ONE DECENT DAY SATURDAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 10-15 KNOTS. SPEEDS PICK UP SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET SATURDAY INCREASING WITH THE WINDS SUNDAY.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL

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