Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 250847 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 347 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND BEFORE MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPLY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...WHICH BETTER CAPTURES THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING...MOVING OFFSHORE BY AROUND NOON. A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT STALLING JUST OFFSHORE...WITH A POTENT FRONTAL WAVE FORMING ALONG IT AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING WHILE MOVING TO JUST EAST OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A DEEPENING H/5 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST AS A STRONG EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN ARE A CERTAINTY TODAY GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...SO KEEPING THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH THE ODD LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY AND SUSTAINED RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL WAVE APPROACHES THE CAPE FEAR REGION. QPF TOTALS WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL...WITH HIGHEST VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES NEAREST THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL INITIATE AS A COOL AND WET DAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WILL RAPIDLY END FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST MOVES AWAY TO THE NE. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 AND HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. LATE IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA...RESULTING IN SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR MONDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA. PERIODS OF -RA WILL CONTINUE STREAMING OVERHEAD WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF IFR BEFORE 12Z... COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EARLIER GFS SOUNDINGS. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM SW TO NW AFTER SUNRISE FOLLOWING FROPA...AND POST-FRONTAL IFR STRATUS APPEARS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AFTER 12Z. DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE -RA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY AND MVFR INLAND. PCPN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 00Z WED AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY AFTER 00Z WED WITH N-NE WINDS AOB 10 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO WED AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS LATE TUE/EARLY WED...IN ADDITION TO HEAVIER PCPN THAT WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES. VFR LATE WED THROUGH SAT. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS STILL EVIDENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW MOVING JUST OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WILL NECESSITATE THE RE-ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY WILL BE JUST A BIT OF A LULL AS FAR AS WINDS AND SEAS GO. HOWEVER...FREQUENT PERIODS OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL BE A PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH THE NEAR TERM DUE TO THE LIMITING EFFECTS ON VISIBILITY. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND CONTINUE AWAY FROM THE AREA TO THE NE DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD ABATE TO 10 TO 15 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH 7 TO 8 FOOTERS POSSIBLE NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 2 TO 4 FT BY THURSDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE EARLY FRI BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN THE REGION. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT FRIDAY WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...31 NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...31 LONG TERM...31 AVIATION...REK/BJR

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