Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 120138 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 938 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUPPORTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 800 PM FRIDAY...DECENT CANOPY OF OPAQUE CI/CS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FA. THE MAJORITY OF THIS CLOUD DECK WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NE-E OF THE FA BY MIDNIGHT GIVEN LATEST IR 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL TRENDS DURING THIS EVEN. AS A RESULT...SKIES SHOULD OVERALL IMPROVE TO BASICALLY PTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW ANY UPSTREAM CLOUDS TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA. IF THESE CLOUDS ARE OF THE LOW OR MID LEVELS...THE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS AND OFF THE APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY SCOUR OUT A GOOD CHUNK OF THIS MOISTURE. AGAIN...PLY CLOUDY FOR OVERNIGHT SKIES LOOKS AOK. NO POPS OR PCPN TO TALK ABOUT. HAVE MASSAGED TONIGHTS LOWS TO THE UPSIDE BY UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES... MAINLY DUE TO CURRENT TEMPS RUNNING HIER COMPARED TO LAST EVENING AT THIS TIME...AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS ALSO RUNNING HIER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO WINDS STAYING RELATIVELY ACTIVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE SFC BASED INVERSION NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE WINDS TO DECOUPLE. THEREFORE FOG FORMATION...IF ANY...WILL BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM WFO CHS BACKUP........................... ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND A RIDGE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WARM CONDITIONS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY IS DISTINCTLY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH CLEAR SKIES ALONG THE COAST PREVAILING IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT ANY CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATION...WHILE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR FRONT APPEARS TO STALL OVER NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. EXPECT JUST AN INCREASE IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS FEW TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL SKY COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A RESULT. WINDS COULD REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND WHEN CONSIDERING SOME POTENTIAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...DO NOT EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT TO BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 54 TO 58 DEGREES...WITH LOCATIONS ALONG THE BEACH POSSIBLY STAYING UP AROUND 60 DEGREES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND UNDER A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BACKDOOR FRONT STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TO START OFF SATURDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN SOME CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH PART OF SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES FAVORING HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE MID 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. MONDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY ADVECT MOISTURE TO THE REGION AND SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MID/UPPER LVL FORCING INCREASE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A H5 SHORTWAVE AND H25 JET ALOFT. COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY EVENING AS PWATS APPROACH 1.5 INCHES WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE AREA SHOULD FAVOR EXPANDING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL A FEW DEGREES. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AWAY FROM THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING BUT NOT NECESSARILY THE STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS THE WEAKER OF THE SOLUTIONS WITH A BROAD SWATH OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A DEEPER AND SLOWER TROUGH...ONE THAT ACTUALLY CUTS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THUS WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL OMEGA. WPC CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE WITH A SMATTERING OF OTHER SOLUTIONS. THIS LEADS TO A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION AND CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TOO EARLY TO ASCERTAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT IF THE MORE POTENT ECMWF WINS OUT THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE A HIGHER CHANCE. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL WITH NO REAL EXTREMES EITHER WAY REGARDING TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHERE GUSTS HAVE ALREADY SUBSIDED INLAND...THOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF GUST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OVERNIGHT...WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED WHILE FEW/SCT CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...THUS DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. AFTER DAYBREAK VFR CONTINUES WITH FEW/SCT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AOB 10 KTS TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 830 PM FRIDAY...WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE AREA WATERS OVERNIGHT. PROGGED SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT TO YIELD SSW-SW WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT...UP TO 4 FT ACROSS THE SHALLOW BATHYMETRY WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. MAJORITY OF THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL COME FROM WIND DRIVEN WAVES ACCOMPANIED WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 5 SECONDES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM WFO CHS BACKUP.......................... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST IS EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST. THIS HIGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATEST BUOY AND COASTAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS GENERALLY 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT...AND EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO EVENTUALLY DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT COULD BRIEFLY BUILD OVERNIGHT...YET REMAIN GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 4 FT. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN INCREASE/BUILD ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY ENHANCES BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC HIGH WELL OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT WELL INLAND. WE COULD SEE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEYOND 15 NM FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY EVENING AS SEAS BUILD NEAR 6 FT AND SOUTHEAST WINDS APPROACH 20-25 KTS. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOCUS REMAINS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE WEAKER WHILE THE ECMWF IS STRONGER. FOLLOWING WPC...THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS. LATE IN THE PERIOD WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO OVER 25 KNOTS. THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE NOT OVERLY ROBUST WITH THE MARGINAL WINDS JUST TEASING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CHS NEAR TERM...CHS/DCH SHORT TERM...CHS LONG TERM...CHS AVIATION...SGL

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