Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS62 KILM 171728
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
128 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016
High pressure over the area will start to move offshore later
today into Tuesday bringing a warming trend, with well above
normal temperatures expected through mid week. An approaching cold
front will reach the area by the end of the week and will bring an
increased chance of rain then. High pressure will build back into
the region from the west over the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 10 AM Monday...Surface high centered just north of the area
this morning will become elongated later today as it slides
farther south. Southerly flow develops in the afternoon with the
center of the high ending up east-southeast of Cape Fear. Weak
gradient will keep winds light but southerly flow will lead to
slightly warmer temps today and tonight as well as an increase in
fog potential. Ridging aloft will keep the region dry with minimal
cloud cover given a subsidence inversion from 800mb-700mb and RH
under 20% above the inversion. Highs will be solidly into the 80s
today with lows around 60.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Monday...GFS/NAM in good agreement with h5 ridge building
eastward throughout the period. further upstream models start to
develop a trough across the front range of the rockies which in
time deepens as it moves into the central US later in the period.
for the short term the CWA will be under the influence of the
upper ridge, good NVA and light winds aloft. at teh surface high
pressure remains the dominate feature as it slowly starts to edge
eastward and the return flow around the high will advect a warmer
air mass into the region. Temperatures are forecast to be way
above climo with most areas 5-10 degrees warmer. A nice few days
of mid to late October weather with dry conditions prevailing
allowing area rivers a chance to recede. Models do develop a low
near the bahamas during the period with some model disagreement as
to position and strength, will favor the slower GFS over the
faster NAM solution here but in either case the system even if it
does develop will not be a forecast concern as of now for the SE.
Again will go above guidance with temperatures for the day time
with max temps on tuesday in the low 80s near the coast and lower
to mid 80s inland and will bump up the temps a few degrees warmer
on wed with highs mainly in the mid 80s except lower 80s near the
coast. cold front across the central plains will reach the
mississippi valley by wednesday and will ushering a change later
in the week for the region. Will also keep any mention of
precipitation out of the forecast with plenty of sinking air to
negate any shower development over land.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Monday...Thursday`s weather maps will feature weak high
pressure locally and a developing tropical system (not expected to
affect CONUS) halfway between east coast and Bermuda. A sharp upper
trough will be pushing into the Great Lakes with some southern
energy dipping into the lower MS valley. The leading edge of this
system aloft will be demarcated at the surface by a healthy cool
front. Cloud cover should increase with the approach of the system
from the west Thursday night but thereafter the forecast gets
muddled. The GFS is not only back to cutting off the southern
portion of this trough but does so much further south than previous
runs-so much that that it looks spurious. The EC and Canadian keep
the mid level trough open and have a clean and rain-free frontal
passage early Friday, a much more likely solution. Pretty good Fall
cool advection behind this boundary for Friday night into Saturday
to bring some late October cool weather. Thermal advection weakens
and then reverses on Sunday but likely only above the boundary
layer, keeping the surface just as cool.
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 18Z...High pressure across the area will provide light winds
and a dry atmospheric column. Shallow moisture will produce only a
few cumulus with bases around 3000-3500 feet AGL this afternoon.
These should fade away tonight. A fog risk exists again for early
Tuesday morning mainly 0900Z-1300Z. Models suggest boundary layer
winds will be weakest near the coast, and that is where I have the
potential for IFR conditions in the forecast.
Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR visibilities are possible due to
areas of fog in the early morning hours Wednesday and Thursday.
MVFR ceilings are possible in showers Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 10 AM Monday...Benign conditions across the waters through
the period as surface high is the dominant feature. Weak gradient
will keep winds under 10 kt through the period with direction
veering from northeast this morning to east-southeast this
afternoon and likely south overnight. Seas running 3 ft or less
made up of a mix of northeast wind wave and decaying swell from
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Monday...Surface high across the region slowly begins
to pull away to the east during this period. Gradient still is
weak resulting in a continuation of light winds across the coastal
waters of 10 kts of less as winds veer around more to the south
and then southwest by Tuesday and eventually becoming SE by
wednesday afternoon. Seas will continue to run about 2-3 feet
across the waters with 10-12 sec periods with swells continuing as
remnant Nicole continues to move away.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 AM Monday... Weak winds in a poorly defined pressure
pattern on Thursday as we find ourselves between west Atlantic
tropical system to the east and a cold front approaching from the
west. Assuming the former is not sending much swell energy our way
seas will be capped at 2 to 3 ft early but may add offshore 4 ft
seas later. Cold front turns winds to the north and increases
speed by a category, possibly a bit more. Wave faces should
steepen but any change in predominant wave height appear pretty
As of 11 AM Monday...Coastal Flood Warning continues for the
Lower Cape Fear River near Wilmington. Water levels along the
river will rise to around 7.5 ft MLLW this morning around 11 AM
with significant amounts of water on Water and Dock streets in
downtown Wilmington as well as a significant amount of water on US
74 near the Battleship. This morning`s high tide will be a few
tenths higher than the high tide Sunday morning and once again
impacts expected along both sides of the Lower Cape Fear River.
Tidal flooding along the Brunswick County coast has ended and the
advisory was allowed to expire at 11 AM. Another coastal flood
advisory will likely be needed on Tuesday for both coastal New
Hanover and Brunswick counties. Wrightsville Beach is forecast to
reach 6.3 ft MLLW around 930 Tuesday morning.
For the tide gauge located on the Lower Cape Fear River at downtown
Minor coastal flood thresholds......5.5 ft MLLW.
Moderate coastal flood thresholds...6.7 ft MLLW.
Major coastal flood thresholds......8.0 ft MLLW.
Here are the next 3 consecutive high tides for the Lower Cape Fear
High tide 1101 AM on Mon...Projected gage reading 7.5 ft MLLW.
High tide 1126 PM on Mon...Projected gage reading 7.0 ft MLLW.
High tide 1155 AM on Tue...Projected gage reading 7.5 ft MLLW.
High tide 1221 AM on wed...Projected gage reading 7.0 ft MLLW
NC...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ107.