Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 171728 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 128 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the area will start to move offshore later today into Tuesday bringing a warming trend, with well above normal temperatures expected through mid week. An approaching cold front will reach the area by the end of the week and will bring an increased chance of rain then. High pressure will build back into the region from the west over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 10 AM Monday...Surface high centered just north of the area this morning will become elongated later today as it slides farther south. Southerly flow develops in the afternoon with the center of the high ending up east-southeast of Cape Fear. Weak gradient will keep winds light but southerly flow will lead to slightly warmer temps today and tonight as well as an increase in fog potential. Ridging aloft will keep the region dry with minimal cloud cover given a subsidence inversion from 800mb-700mb and RH under 20% above the inversion. Highs will be solidly into the 80s today with lows around 60. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Monday...GFS/NAM in good agreement with h5 ridge building eastward throughout the period. further upstream models start to develop a trough across the front range of the rockies which in time deepens as it moves into the central US later in the period. for the short term the CWA will be under the influence of the upper ridge, good NVA and light winds aloft. at teh surface high pressure remains the dominate feature as it slowly starts to edge eastward and the return flow around the high will advect a warmer air mass into the region. Temperatures are forecast to be way above climo with most areas 5-10 degrees warmer. A nice few days of mid to late October weather with dry conditions prevailing allowing area rivers a chance to recede. Models do develop a low near the bahamas during the period with some model disagreement as to position and strength, will favor the slower GFS over the faster NAM solution here but in either case the system even if it does develop will not be a forecast concern as of now for the SE. Again will go above guidance with temperatures for the day time with max temps on tuesday in the low 80s near the coast and lower to mid 80s inland and will bump up the temps a few degrees warmer on wed with highs mainly in the mid 80s except lower 80s near the coast. cold front across the central plains will reach the mississippi valley by wednesday and will ushering a change later in the week for the region. Will also keep any mention of precipitation out of the forecast with plenty of sinking air to negate any shower development over land. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 AM Monday...Thursday`s weather maps will feature weak high pressure locally and a developing tropical system (not expected to affect CONUS) halfway between east coast and Bermuda. A sharp upper trough will be pushing into the Great Lakes with some southern energy dipping into the lower MS valley. The leading edge of this system aloft will be demarcated at the surface by a healthy cool front. Cloud cover should increase with the approach of the system from the west Thursday night but thereafter the forecast gets muddled. The GFS is not only back to cutting off the southern portion of this trough but does so much further south than previous runs-so much that that it looks spurious. The EC and Canadian keep the mid level trough open and have a clean and rain-free frontal passage early Friday, a much more likely solution. Pretty good Fall cool advection behind this boundary for Friday night into Saturday to bring some late October cool weather. Thermal advection weakens and then reverses on Sunday but likely only above the boundary layer, keeping the surface just as cool. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 18Z...High pressure across the area will provide light winds and a dry atmospheric column. Shallow moisture will produce only a few cumulus with bases around 3000-3500 feet AGL this afternoon. These should fade away tonight. A fog risk exists again for early Tuesday morning mainly 0900Z-1300Z. Models suggest boundary layer winds will be weakest near the coast, and that is where I have the potential for IFR conditions in the forecast. Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR visibilities are possible due to areas of fog in the early morning hours Wednesday and Thursday. MVFR ceilings are possible in showers Friday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 10 AM Monday...Benign conditions across the waters through the period as surface high is the dominant feature. Weak gradient will keep winds under 10 kt through the period with direction veering from northeast this morning to east-southeast this afternoon and likely south overnight. Seas running 3 ft or less made up of a mix of northeast wind wave and decaying swell from Nicole. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Monday...Surface high across the region slowly begins to pull away to the east during this period. Gradient still is weak resulting in a continuation of light winds across the coastal waters of 10 kts of less as winds veer around more to the south and then southwest by Tuesday and eventually becoming SE by wednesday afternoon. Seas will continue to run about 2-3 feet across the waters with 10-12 sec periods with swells continuing as remnant Nicole continues to move away. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 3 AM Monday... Weak winds in a poorly defined pressure pattern on Thursday as we find ourselves between west Atlantic tropical system to the east and a cold front approaching from the west. Assuming the former is not sending much swell energy our way seas will be capped at 2 to 3 ft early but may add offshore 4 ft seas later. Cold front turns winds to the north and increases speed by a category, possibly a bit more. Wave faces should steepen but any change in predominant wave height appear pretty minor. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 11 AM Monday...Coastal Flood Warning continues for the Lower Cape Fear River near Wilmington. Water levels along the river will rise to around 7.5 ft MLLW this morning around 11 AM with significant amounts of water on Water and Dock streets in downtown Wilmington as well as a significant amount of water on US 74 near the Battleship. This morning`s high tide will be a few tenths higher than the high tide Sunday morning and once again impacts expected along both sides of the Lower Cape Fear River. Tidal flooding along the Brunswick County coast has ended and the advisory was allowed to expire at 11 AM. Another coastal flood advisory will likely be needed on Tuesday for both coastal New Hanover and Brunswick counties. Wrightsville Beach is forecast to reach 6.3 ft MLLW around 930 Tuesday morning. For the tide gauge located on the Lower Cape Fear River at downtown Wilmington, Minor coastal flood thresholds......5.5 ft MLLW. Moderate coastal flood thresholds...6.7 ft MLLW. Major coastal flood thresholds......8.0 ft MLLW. Here are the next 3 consecutive high tides for the Lower Cape Fear River... High tide 1101 AM on Mon...Projected gage reading 7.5 ft MLLW. High tide 1126 PM on Mon...Projected gage reading 7.0 ft MLLW. High tide 1155 AM on Tue...Projected gage reading 7.5 ft MLLW. High tide 1221 AM on wed...Projected gage reading 7.0 ft MLLW && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ107. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...TRA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.