Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 281232 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 832 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY. REDEVELOPING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLE HEAT WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MID-WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 832 AM SUNDAY...WEAK MCV IMPULSE SEEN IN VAPOR ANIMATIONS MOVING NE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA WILL BRING LIGHT AND MODERATE SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. RECENT RADAR RETURN SHOW THE FAINT TRACES OF A COLD FRONT SLIPPING SE TOWARD THE COAST. RECENT NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE 4KM NSSL WRF SHOW SHOWERS ERUPTING IN SCATTERED FASHION ALONG THIS FEATURE INTO THE LATE MORNING. THE MAINLY WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS TODAY AND ASSOCIATED ADIABATIC COMPRESSION WILL HELP SUSTAIN PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND A GOOD DIURNAL WARM UP...DESPITE THE POST FRONTAL REGIME. MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LOOKS REASONABLE. RECENT WATER VAPOR TRENDS SHOW ENHANCEMENT OF COLUMN MOISTURE STREAMING NE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS SO NO PLANS TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER. NE SC WILL SEE THE FRONT LATEST PERHAPS IN EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE SURFACE HEATING AND THIS IS WHERE THE STRONGER STORMS ARE FAVORED IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT SLIPS OFF THE SC COAST PRIOR TO EVENING THEN DECAYS INSHORE. LOWS MONDAY MORNING COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY WITH MIDDLE 60S INLAND TO THE LOW 70S NEAR THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WHICH THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK IS NOW LOOKING LIKE IT WILL STALL JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST. THIS IS UNFORTUNATE BECAUSE THE SPRING-LIKE DRYING THAT WAS FORECAST IS NOW LOOKING MUCH LESS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. THE REASON FOR THIS IS BOTH DUE TO THE VERY WARM WATER TEMPS IN PLACE OVER THE WATER...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS NOW PROGGED TO REMAIN WEST OF THIS AREA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY AND WOBBLE IN THE VICINITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD. WHILE THIS FRONT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN...THE MID LEVELS DO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY...SO CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED MONDAY OR TUESDAY. EVEN SO...THERE COULD BE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT GRADIENT MONDAY...AND IT WILL LIKELY FEEL REFRESHING INLAND...BUT STILL PRETTY HUMID ALONG THE COAST. MOISTURE RETURN WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY SO DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ONCE AGAIN. WITH CONTINUED SW FLOW ALOFT AND THE THERMAL RIDGE REMAINING IN THE VICINITY...TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 90S...WITH TUESDAY THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES...1-2 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70 MONDAY NIGHT...AND A BIT WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...SUMMER LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SEASONABLE-TO-SLIGHTLY-ABOVE TEMPERATURES BUT HIGHER THAN CLIMO PRECIP CHANGES. BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BE THE DOMINANT SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURE...WHILE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE THE RULE ALOFT. THIS TROUGH WILL BE RATHER FLAT...BUT WILL KEEP HEIGHTS ALOFT JUST LOW ENOUGH THAT CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTN/EVE IN A TYPICAL DIURNAL FASHION. WITH THE SLIGHTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS...THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BECOME ACTIVE AS THE WARM TEMPS AND HIGH HUMIDITY CREATE AMPLE INSTABILITY...AND WILL CARRY CHC TO HIGH CHC POP EACH AFTN. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LIFT AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TRENDS TOWARDS ZONAL...AND FIRST GLIMPSE AT THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY LOOKS HOT WITH ISOLATED TSTMS. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 12Z...FRONTAL POSITION IS SOMEWHERE NEAR THE COAST WHERE A GOOD PWAT GRADIENT RESIDES. NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY...WITH ALL ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST BY MID AFTERNOON. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 832 AM SUNDAY...SW-W WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT BY AFTERNOON AND 10 TO 15 KT TONIGHT. SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH AFTERNOON AND 2 TO 4 FT TONIGHT. WSW-SW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THIS MORNING AND WE WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO RUN ITS COURSE TIL MIDDAY. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS MONDAY AND THEN WASH OUT/LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY. BY LATE MONDAY AND THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REASSERT ITSELF AND BE THE CONTROLLING FEATURE ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS LEAVES SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AT 10-15 KTS MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY...RISING TO 15-20 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A LOW- AMPLITUDE SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST WITHIN THE WAVE SPECTRUM...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY BY A SW WIND CHOP...WITH SEAS OF 2- 4 FT EXPECTED MONDAY...RISING TO 3-5 FT TUESDAY. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WHILE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS EACH AFTN INLAND FROM THE WATERS. THIS WILL LEAVE SW WINDS EACH DAY...WITH A PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT OCCURRING TO DRIVE WIND SPEEDS UP TO 15-20 KTS EACH EVENING...WHILE OTHERWISE MAINTAINING A 10-15 KT SPEED. SEAS WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL BE 3-4 FT MOST OF THE TIME...BUT A FEW 5 FTERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE 20 NM BOUNDARY EACH DAY.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DL

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