Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 170813 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 313 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure moving offshore will bring milder weather and a gradual increase in moisture through Saturday. An upper level disturbance will interact with this moisture for some rain Saturday night. Even milder weather returns Sunday and should last through midweek. Rain chances may return late next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Friday...After a cold start to this morning, expect temperatures will rebound and reach at or slightly above climo norms for today, ie. low to mid 60s, with a few upper 60s southernmost portion of the ILM CWA. This trend will continue for tonights lows, with low to mid 40s. Short Wave ridging aloft will approach from the west today, with it`s north to south ridge axis overhead by daybreak Sat. WAA will be the story for this period, ie. 850mb temps around 0 degrees Celsius this morning, rising to 10+ degrees Celsius by daybreak Sat. Sct-Bkn high level clouds will affect the FA this morning, due to an upper s/w trof or vort passing by to our north. Mainly sunny and clear later this morning thru early evening, with high level clouds returning late tonight as result of this moisture overriding the approaching upper ridge axis.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Friday...Longwave pattern aloft somewhat in a state of flux this period due to the progressive nature of both upper s/w trofs and ridges across the United States. A closed upper low and weak sfc low over eastern TX Sat morning, is progged by the models to dampen and open up to just a s/w by the time it pushes across the ILM CWA Sat night. The weak sfc low accompanying is also progged by the models to weaken into a sfc trof as it passes across the FA Sat night. Enough moisture accompanies it and/or what little moisture it`s able to tap off the Gulf of Mexico, will be enough to produce mostly cloudy skies by late Sat aftn thru early Sun. Could only illustrate a low chance POP, 20-30 at most, mainly from again late Sat thru early Sun as the entire system progresses from west to east across the FA. With dynamics sfc and aloft weak at best along with very limited if any instability, pcpn will be in the form of light rainshowers with no thunder being mentioned. Temps on Sat will warm to the lower 70s, cooler at the immediate coast. With Sat nite lows in the upper 40s to around 50. Not much CAA occurs after the system departs for Sun, in fact NW flow to occur at the sfc and thru atm column. This compressional heating from the downslope flow off the Appalachians will counter any CAA that does occur, resulting in widespread 70s for Sun highs. Sun night lows will still be above normal in the low to mid 40s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 3 AM Friday...Impressive amplitude develops by Monday with ridge axis just to our west. Being on the east side of not only the mid level but also surface and low level highs there will still be a weak sense of cool advection in the boundary layer. This will offset the impressive height rises but most areas will still end up on the warm side of 70 especially inland. As the pattern progresses into Tuesday and Wednesday the low level flow will turn more onshore. Pair the increased marine influence with height falls and 70 will be a harder high to attain for some areas, though such a value is still some 10 degrees above climatology. For weather aspects other than temperatures we look to the deep troughiness that unphases but leaves a strong cutoff to meander across the Gulf through the midweek period. Timing cutoffs correctly has always been a challenge for model guidance and may be for some time to come. The best forecast this far out in time is to show a gradual increase in cloud cover and rain chances Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will not show much variation from those early in the period save for perhaps increasing nighttime lows as the clouds increase (though there are arguably some model solutions that keep the system too far to our south for that).
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&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 06Z...VFR conditions thruout this 24 hr TAF cycle. Weak vort aloft within NW flow aloft, will pass bye just north of the terminals and off the NC Coast early this morning. SCT to BKN thin to opaque cirrus will accompany it. Otherwise, skies mainly SKC there-after. Weak pressure pattern across the area this morning as weak ridging extends from Florida. Looking at WNW to NW less than 5 kt becoming variable or even going calm for a few hrs early this morning. Some slight tightening of the sfc pg as the sfc high moves east and offshore from Florida. Winds will become SSW to SW around 10 kt across all terminals by midday and continuing thru the aftn, then dropping back to around 5 kt after sunset. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Primarily VFR. Possible MVFR/IFR conditions in showers Sat night thru early Sun due to the passage of a weak low pressure system. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Friday...Rather benign marine conditions expected this period with ridging from sfc high center migrating across Florida and offshore from it`s east coast tonight. Weak sfc pg along with lee side troffing developing across the central Carolinas today, will result in winds initially N to NE around 10 kt that become SW thruout at 10 to occasionally 15 kt later today thru tonight. Significant seas will run 1 to 3 ft with wind driven waves the primary input for sig. seas with an underlying 1 ft easterly ground swell still present. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Friday...Saturday will feature ridging from offshore Florida and the lee side trof across the central Carolinas, combining to produce SW winds 10 to 15 kt with some gusts up to 20 kt, becoming more westerly Sat night. The upper s/w trof and accompanying sfc trof will sweep from west to east across the area waters Sat night thru early Sun. After it`s passage, Sunday thru Sunday night will see NW winds only around 10 kt due to the lack of any sfc pg after the system`s departure. Significant seas thru the period will only run 1 to 3 ft, possibly some 4 footers off Cape Fear during Sat into Sat night. Short period wind driven waves will remain the primary input to the sig. seas. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 AM Friday...A large upper ridge will be just inland on Monday. A similarly north-south elongated surface high will be found near a similar longitude, just slightly to the east. The center of this high will be north of New York State. This will create a long northeasterly fetch into the local area, though some turning to a more easterly direction will be possible over southern zones as the flow curves around the southern periphery of the high. Changes heading into Tuesday will be minor. The high progresses eastward along with its parent upper ridge. Wind will remain quite light and tend to veer a bit. This could channel a bit more swell energy into the Carolina coastal waters though overall dominant wave height likely will not change appreciably since according to WNA guidance said swell energy will be very weak.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DCH

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