Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 120516 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 116 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUPPORTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 115 AM SATURDAY...CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE FOCUS ON FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES. SURFACE WINDS ARE BECOMING CALM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE SOUTH CAROLINA. THE STRONGEST PORTION OF A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS AT 1000 FEET. 1000 FOOT WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA ARE 5-10 KT LIGHTER. AS SURFACE WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ANOTHER FEW MPH THROUGH DAYBREAK A DEEPER NOCTURNAL RADIATION INVERSION SHOULD DEVELOP. I HAVE TRIMMED BACK FORECAST LOWS BY SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF NE SOUTH CAROLINA AWAY FROM THE BEACHES...WITH LESSER CHANGES ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA. EARLIER OPAQUE CIRRUS IS PUSHING OFF THE COAST...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BATCH OF ALTOCUMULUS AT THE TOP OF YESTERDAY`S DEEP MIXED LAYER WHICH MAY AFFECT MAINLY THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A DENSE BATCH OF CLOUDS/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS TENNESSEE SHOULD LARGELY DRY OUT AS IT PASSES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND UNDER A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BACKDOOR FRONT STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TO START OFF SATURDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN SOME CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH PART OF SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES FAVORING HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE MID 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. MONDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER EAST AND OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY ADVECT MOISTURE TO THE REGION AND SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MID/UPPER LVL FORCING INCREASE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A H5 SHORTWAVE AND H25 JET ALOFT. COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY EVENING AS PWATS APPROACH 1.5 INCHES WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE AREA SHOULD FAVOR EXPANDING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL A FEW DEGREES. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AWAY FROM THE COAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING BUT NOT NECESSARILY THE STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS THE WEAKER OF THE SOLUTIONS WITH A BROAD SWATH OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A DEEPER AND SLOWER TROUGH...ONE THAT ACTUALLY CUTS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THUS WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL OMEGA. WPC CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE WITH A SMATTERING OF OTHER SOLUTIONS. THIS LEADS TO A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION AND CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TOO EARLY TO ASCERTAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT IF THE MORE POTENT ECMWF WINS OUT THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE A HIGHER CHANCE. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL WITH NO REAL EXTREMES EITHER WAY REGARDING TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ASIDE FROM CIRRUS AND A LITTLE ALTOCUMULUS AROUND 7000 FEET SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL AGAIN PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 115 AM SATURDAY...HAD TO MAKE SOME PRETTY AGGRESSIVE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. A VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE OCEAN IS PREVENTING MUCH WIND FROM MIXING DOWN. DESPITE 1000 FOOT WIND SPEEDS RUNNING 25-30 KNOTS THE BEST I AM SEEING AT ANY BUOY OR COASTAL OBSERVATION SITE IS 10 KNOTS. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY VEER FROM THE SOUTH TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. I HAVE ALSO TRIMMED ABOUT ONE-THIRD OFF WAVE FORECASTS BASED ON LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS OF 2 FEET WITHIN 20 MILES OF SHORE AND 3 FEET OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. SPECTRAL WAVE PLOTS SHOW THE DOMINANT PERIOD IS 5 SECONDS WITH A SMALLER "BUMP" IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM FROM SWELL AROUND 8 SECONDS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN INCREASE/BUILD ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY ENHANCES BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC HIGH WELL OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT WELL INLAND. WE COULD SEE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEYOND 15 NM FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY EVENING AS SEAS BUILD NEAR 6 FT AND SOUTHEAST WINDS APPROACH 20-25 KTS. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOCUS REMAINS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE WEAKER WHILE THE ECMWF IS STRONGER. FOLLOWING WPC...THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS. LATE IN THE PERIOD WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO OVER 25 KNOTS. THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE NOT OVERLY ROBUST WITH THE MARGINAL WINDS JUST TEASING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...TRA

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