Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 261035 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 635 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL MIGRATE OVERHEAD INTO MONDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. AFTER A PROLONGED DRY SPELL...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL MID WEEK...POSSIBLY LINGERING AT THE COAST INTO FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...A WANING NOCTURNAL JET EARLY THIS MORNING HAS KEPT TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COOL AS THEY WERE SAT MORNING. MANY INLAND AREAS WILL START THE DAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH LOWER TO MID 50S AT THE COAST. ON THIS DATE LAST YEAR THE GROWING SEASON ENDED FOR MOST INLAND COMMUNITIES. FLORENCE HAD A RECORD LOW OF 29 DEGREES AND NORTH MYRTLE BEACH WAS 33 DEGREES, GOOD ENOUGH FOR A RECORD THERE. ARCTIC AIR RETURNED ON NOVEMBER 13, 2013 TO END THE GROWING SEASON ALONG THE COAST. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL FINALLY MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER PARAMETER THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DRY AIR PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS A THIRD OF AN INCH. THIS DRY AIR WILL AGAIN BRING AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW VERY NEAR THE COAST DUE TO A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE AND RESULTING MARINE INFLUENCES. THE DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH SUBSIDENCE TO PREVENT ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. DRY AIR HEATS AND COOLS MOST EFFICIENTLY AND WE AGAIN EXPECT A QUICK TURN AROUND IN TEMPS THIS MORNING WITH A DIURNAL RANGE UP TO 25 TO 35 DEGREES...GREATEST INLAND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. WE EXPECT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...NOT WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY RECORDS JUST YET. IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SEASONABLY COOL ATLANTIC WATERS...A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS FROM EXCEEDING THE LOWER TO MID 70S. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BECOME STRONG UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS AND WITH THAT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP QUICKLY DURING THE EVE...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND AROUND 50 AT THE BEACHES. THOSE TRADITIONALLY CHILLY SPOTS WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...GORGEOUS WEATHER TO CONTINUE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH CONDITIONS MORE APPROPRIATE FOR LATE SUMMER THAN MID-FALL ANTICIPATED. SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE TO A POSITION EAST OF BERMUDA ON TUESDAY...CREATING A SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA RIDGE TYPE SETUP. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS DRIVEN BY A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAINTAIN ANOMALOUSLY WARM THICKNESSES LOCALLY. THE RAISED HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH WARM RETURN FLOW WILL DRIVE TEMPS TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD 80 DEGREE READINGS ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST ON MONDAY...WITH EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WHEN RECORD HIGHS MAY BE APPROACHED (86 AT FLORENCE). TEMPS NEAR THE COAST WILL BE MUCH COOLER THANKS TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BECOME A STRONG SEA BREEZE AS LAND/OCEAN TEMP DIFFERENCES EXCEED 10 DEGREES. MINS WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM BOTH NIGHTS...LOW/MID 50S MONDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT TUESDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND EVEN CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL AT WORST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...ENJOY THE WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY...BECAUSE THE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT HALT THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE AWAY ON WEDNESDAY...TO BE REPLACED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...THE FIRST ON THURSDAY...THE SECOND LATE FRIDAY. THE FIRST ONE THURSDAY...WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS NOW PROGGED TO BE A BIT FASTER THANKS TO A LESS AMPLIFIED /FASTER/ MID-LEVEL FLOW. FRONT WILL CROSS THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OVERALL QPF STILL APPEARS TO BE RATHER LIMITED THANKS TO...AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...ONLY A "THIN RIBBON" OF MOISTURE AND WEAK THETA-E RIDGING. STILL...CHC POP FOR THURSDAY WILL REMAIN. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS INTO WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL PERSIST FRIDAY TO KEEP SHOWERS LOCALLY...BUT THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY COMBINED WITH SOME FORCING AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD...WILL AT LEAST PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTN...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE RAPID DRYING BEHIND THIS SECOND IMPULSE AS IT DRIVES THE FRONT WELL FROM THE COAST...AND HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT COOL. THEREAFTER A BIG COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED AS STRONG NEGATIVE ANOMALIES DEVELOP ALOFT DRIVING INTENSE COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE EAST. THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE SO WARM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. EXTENDED MOS IS ALREADY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO NORMS...A SURE SIGNAL OF THE VERY COLD AIR ANTICIPATED. THE 25/12Z ECMWF SURE IS INTERESTING...BUT IS DISREGARDED ATTM FOR ITS EXTREME (AND NEW) BEHAVIOR. THUS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS COLD AND DRY. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT/VRBL WINDS BECOMING WEST THIS MORNING. A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT ANY FOG CHANCES OVERNIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT RACES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AOB 10 KT AT ALL TERMINALS BY MIDDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL ENTER THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS WINDS BECOME CALM AFTER SUNSET. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BECOME CENTERED OVERHEAD BY MORNING. A WANING NOCTURNAL JET EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE PERIOD...SUSTAINED UP TO 15 TO 20 KT. THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 10 KT OR LESS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NW TODAY...BUT SHOULD BACK TO A MORE W OR WSW DIRECTION ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES. TONIGHT...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO THE N AND THEN NE AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES TO THE E. SEAS WILL ALSO BE HIGHEST THIS MORNING...UP TO 3 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NEARLY OVERHEAD DURING MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY...AND THEN MOVING WELL EAST OF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS CREATES A VERY WEAK GRADIENT MONDAY WITH VARIABLE WINDS...ALTHOUGH A PRONOUNCED SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITHIN THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS...VEERING FROM NE TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY...WINDS WILL RISE TO 10 KTS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS...WITH A SW DIRECTION PREDOMINANT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS LOW...1-2 FT MONDAY...BECOMING 2-3 FT ONLY VERY LATE TUESDAY. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS EARLY THURSDAY CREATES TWO DISTINCT REGIMES IN THE EXTENDED. IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS...CREATING 2-3 FT SEAS. FRONT WILL CROSS FROM NW TO SE EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A DECREASE IN SPEED AND A QUICK SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THESE NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 2 FT ON THURSDAY...A CONFUSED SPECTRUM JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AS NORTHERLY WINDS ENVELOP THE WATERS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJD NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...RJD/BJR

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