Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 272350 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 750 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ISOLATED COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 7 PM WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS WANING INLAND AND THIS IS AGREEING WITH THE 21 UTC VERSION OF THE HRRR. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS MAINLY WEST OF A FLORENCE TO LUMBERTON LINE. THE CONVECTION BEGAN ALONG THE CONVERGENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THERE WERE SOME POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER MARION AND AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES. A PARTIAL CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WIND COULD LEAD TO PATCHES OF FOG AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECREASE AFTER 09Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL UPSTREAM DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM GULF CONVECTION MOVING OVER THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY HOWEVER WOULD EXPECT THURSDAY TO HAVE BETTER COVERAGE COMPARED TO FRI AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. EACH DAY THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FARTHER INLAND. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY/NIGHT ARE SPOT ON TO CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THE SEA BREEZE.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT AND ERODE HEADING INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS ON SHORE FETCH OF MOIST AIR WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH AND WILL ADVECT SOME INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE DISTANT ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ADD TO OVERALL PCP WATER LEVELS BUT THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION PROVIDING A LID ON GROWTH POTENTIAL OF ANY SHWRS THAT DEVELOP WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. AS RIDGE BUILDS H5 HEIGHT RISES WILL ADD TO VERY WARM TEMPS WITH 850 TEMPS REACHING NEAR 17C OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH MID 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND. THE ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS INTO THE 60S WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSE TO THE COAST. OVERALL EXPECT A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY FOCUSED ALONG ANY LOCALIZED AREAS OF CONVERGENCE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY AND LAND BREEZE AT NIGHT....AS WELL AS PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHC OF STRONGER OR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIP EAST AND SLOWLY ERODE IN THE UPPER LEVELS HEADING INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. WILL SEE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AROUND LOW WHICH TRIES TO CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/POTENTIALLY IFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WHILE CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET ALONG THE COAST...LATEST RADAR DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND SLOWLY DECREASING IN STRENGTH...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER KLBT/KFLO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ANY SHOWER THAT PASSES OVER EITHER TERMINAL COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR...BUT OVERALL ANTICIPATE VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER.AREAS OF GROUND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL. AS FOR COASTAL SITES...WILL CONTINUE TEMPO MVFR FOR NOW. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING AOB 10 KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 7 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COAST WATERS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS OF 3 FEET. NO CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE COAST WATER THIS EVENING BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST TOWARD OUR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH DAY. OVERALL WINDS SPEEDS WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH... HOWEVER THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS INTO THE 3-4 FT RANGE ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 7-9 SEC RANGE WITH SOME CHOP ON TOP. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK GRADIENT OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP DUE TO SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC PERIODS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HAWKINS SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...SGL

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