Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 162334 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 734 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR BUT STAY ABOVE FREEZING FOR SOME LOCATIONS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS EVEN THE STRATO-CU HUGGING THE GEORGETOWN COAST HAS MOVED TO SEA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM A WEDGE-LIKE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN. SURFACE RIDGING WILL EXTEND SW ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT AS A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE KEEPS LOW LEVEL FLOW COOL AND NORTHEASTERLY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL HELP INCREASE P/W VALUES FROM PRESENT QUARTER-INCH RANGE TO AROUND A HALF-INCH BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. EXPECTING A RESULTANT MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. BIG FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...SPECIFICALLY...WILL IT GO BELOW FREEZING OR NOT? LAST NIGHTS GUIDANCE WAS OVERALL TOO WARM BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...GIVE OR TAKE A DEGREE...WHICH WAS MUCH AS EXPECTED GIVEN VIGOROUS MIXING THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE AGAIN LEANED TO THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE BECAUSE IT SEEMS LIKE GUIDANCE IS AGAIN NOT TAKING MIXING INTO FULL ACCOUNT. MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHEN MODIFIED TO ACCOUNT FOR MIXING...MAKE IT LOOK LIKE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE UNLIKELY...AND ONGOING MIXING ALSO MAKE FROST UNLIKELY. WILL CAP OUR LOWS TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S AS A RESULT AND WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FREEZE/FROST PRODUCTS. HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY MENTION LOW PROBABILITY OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE HWO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL KICKOFF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REIGNS OVER THE AREA...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S ON THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME DIURNAL CU AS NOTED BY FCST SOUNDINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO FRIDAY WILL DIP IN THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. A GRADUAL TRANSITION INTO THE NEXT WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ON FRIDAY AS LATEST GUIDANCE FOCUSES ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EVOLVING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...SET TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE AND MOVE OFFSHORE...CONTINUING ITS PROPAGATION AS A COASTAL LOW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...ITS PROJECTED PATH IN WHICH IT WILL POTENTIALLY AFFECT OUR AREA IS PAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BUT...DO EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING. CHANCES INCREASE EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO SATURDAY MORNING AROUND 50. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BE CROSSING FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. AS IT DOES SO LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...ELONGATED ALL THE DAY UP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SATURDAY THUS LOOKS FAIRLY UNSETTLED WITH HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES AND QPF PROSPECTS ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS ALL TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THIS SEEMS TO HINGE MOSTLY ON HOW CUT OFF THE UPPER WAVE BECOMES. THE SEEMINGLY OPTIMISTIC GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM FAIRLY OPEN AND THUS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE IMPLYING DRYING AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES. THE CMC REPRESENTS THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM IN KEEPING THE SYSTEM CUTOFF AND FLINGING RAIN ASHORE THROUGH MONDAY. CUTOFFS DO TEND TO MOVE SLOWER THAN PROGGED AND SO WILL START TO LOWER TEMPS AND RAISE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN IDEA SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF. THE 12Z EC LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE...IT KEEPS PLENTY OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DRYING SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL NOT GO AS HIGH WITH RESPECT TO QPF THO AS THE EC OFTEN HAS A WET BIAS. MAY HAVE TO SHOW QUITE A GRADIENT COASTAL VS INLAND SINCE THE WRF SHOWS A WELL CUTOFF SYSTEM ALOFT BUT ALSO ALL OF THE MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH. BEYOND THE WEEKEND ATTENTION TURNS TO THE WEST. NEXT WEATHER-MAKING SYSTEM TO BE AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 6-10 KTS. CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING STRATOCU ALONG THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING AFTER 06Z...AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF TEMPO MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KILM/KCRE/KMYR AROUND DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY LOW TO MODERATE ATTM...SO WILL KEEP PREVAILING VFR AT THESE SITES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AFTER 06Z AND REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH DAYBREAK. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS WEDGED INTO THE CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR SURFACE WINDS 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 KTS DURING THE DAY. COULD SEE VFR CIGS DEVELOP AT THE COASTAL TERMS BY AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT AT LEAST PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL AS INCREASED RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1:55 PM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. A DEVELOPING WEDGE PATTERN CONSISTING OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SW ALONG THE APPALACHIANS IN COMBINATION WITH A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE WILL KEEP NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM. WINDS NEAR SHORE OVERNIGHT WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REIGN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR NORTHEAST FLOW TO PERSIST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. THUS HAVE KEPT SCA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NOW...THOUGH MAY NEED TO EXTEND EVEN FURTHER. ON FRIDAY SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP AND WINDS DECREASE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CROSSING FLORIDA ON SATURDAY DEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL MODERATELY PINCH THE LOCAL GRADIENT. N TO NE WINDS RATHER GUSTY AND SHOULD SPONSOR ADVISORY-WORTHY SEAS. THE MAIN FORECAST UNCERTAINTY PROBABLY COMES ON SUNDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH OF THIS SETUP CAN PROGRESS EAST AND LEAD TO WEAKENING WINDS AND DIMINISHED SEAS. FOR NOW WILL SHOW THIS TREND BUT SOME MODELS ARE SLOWING IN DOING SO AND WOULD IMPLY THAT FLAGS MAY LAST LONGER. WE KEEP OUR NORTHERLY COMPONENT EVEN IF IN A DIMINISHED STATE COME MONDAY AS LOW WANDERS OUT IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054- 056. NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106- 108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SGL NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...SGL LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...BJR

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