Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 201118 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 618 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT FARTHER OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WILL BRING MUCH MILDER...BUT WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AFTER A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...FA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LONGWAVE UPPER TROF AFFECTING THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT THE SFC TO OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE THE SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TO RELINQUISH ITS HOLD ACROSS THE FA...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW LATE TODAY. THIS FRONT IS WELL DISPLACED FROM ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW BUT NEVERTHELESS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL AID ITS PUSH ACROSS THE FA BY LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH NO PCPN EXPECTED...AND EVEN CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH IT LOOKS BLEAK GIVEN THE DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE APPALACHIANS. AFTER FROPA...HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGINS WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE ACROSS THE FA DURING THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS. A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE MAXES IN THE MID-UPPER 50S TODAY...AND LOW TO MID 30S FOR LOWS TONIGHT...EXCEPT UPPER 30S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF SHORE BY SAT EVE. OVERALL EXPECT CONTINUED COOL AND DRY WEATHER WITH A SLIGHT WARMING AND MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN THROUGH SATURDAY AS WINDS VEER AROUND FROM NORTHEAST ON FRI TO EAST BY SATURDAY AND SOUTHEAST BY SAT NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW CIRRUS STREAMING OVER THE AREA IN WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WEATHER. PCP WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN A DRY COLUMN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE INCREASING RETURN FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BRING VALUES UP ABOVE A HALF INCH BY SAT EVE. THE INCREASING MOIST AND WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHC OF SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY SUN MORNING. THE COOLER DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST PLACES. HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT WILL PRODUCE A WEAKER GRADIENT FLOW ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP OFF INTO THE EVENING. WEAK TO NEAR CALM WINDS COMBINED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THEREFORE TEMPS SHOULD DROP OFF TO BELOW FREEZING MOST PLACES INLAND TO MID 30S ALONG THE BEACHES. AFTER A COLD START TO THE SAY ON SATURDAY...WARMER AND MOISTER RETURN FLOW WILL KICK IN HELPING TEMPS TO REACH A FEW DEGREES WARMER UP TO THE UPPER HALF OF 50S TO NEAR 60. CLOUDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE 40S MOST PLACES SAT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...AFTER A RAINY START TO THE WEEK IT WILL CLEAR OUT IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING. ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE AS POTENT STORM SYSTEM RACES UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW AN INCREASING DEEP FLOW OF MOISTURE WITH PCP WATER VALUES JUMPING UP NEAR 2 INCHES BY SUN EVE AND REMAINING UP THROUGH TUES. BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AS IT DIGS DOWN TO THE GULF COAST MAINTAINING A DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY TUES. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ON TUES HELPING TO PUSH THE WEATHER OFF SHORE BUT UNTIL MID TO UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND CLEARS THE COAST ON WED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP CHC OF PCP IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS WILL WARM IN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS. EXPECT HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL NEAR 70 ON SUN AND INTO THE MID 70S BY MONDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL LATE TUES INTO WED AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN BEHIND COLD FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS NOW SHIFTED OFFSHORE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO RESPOND AND ARE CURRENTLY SW-W AT 4-8KT. SKIES ARE CLEAR. AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES EXPECT SW-WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 15-20KT BY LATE MORNING. EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER AFTER MIDNIGHT AND DROP TO AROUND 5 KT PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER/CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH FRONT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR FRIDAY. LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS MONDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...RIDGING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FROM THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THIS MORNING. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND A TIGHTENED SFC PG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. THE WEAK WAA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY WILL HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY REACHING THE OCEAN SFC DUE TO SSTS HAVING NOW DROPPED INTO THE 50S. NEVERTHELESS...THE PATTERN SUGGESTS SW-WSW WINDS IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE THRU THIS EVENING...THEN VEERING TO THE NW AND N AFTER THE CFP AT THE SAME SPEEDS INITIALLY. THE TIGHTENED SFC PG LEADING UP TO AND AFTER THE CFP COULD REACH BRIEF SCEC VALUES WHEN COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT SEAS. LATEST LOCALLY PRODUCED SWAN AND WAVEWATCH3 COMBINED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SEAS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS FRI INTO SAT BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE HATTERAS COAST BY SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS ON FRI BECOMING NE FRI NIGHT AND SHIFTING FURTHER AROUND TO THE E-SE BY SUN MORNING AND DIMINISHING THROUGH SAT TO 15 KTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL START OUT 3 TO 4 FT ON FRI AND WILL SPIKE UP A BIT IN COLD AIR FRI NIGHT BUT WILL THEN SUBSIDE IN DECREASING ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FT SAT NIGHT. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE AND A POTENT STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS OUT OF THE SE TO S-SW. EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FROM SUN AFTN THROUGH MONDAY AND PROBABLY NOT DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS UNTIL TUES. SEAS WILL RAMP UP ON SUNDAY FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY SUNDAY UP TO 4 TO 6 FT BY SUN AFTN AND CONTINUING TO RISE UP TO 8 TO 10 FT IN OUTER WATERS IN STRONG SOUTHERLY PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL BE CLOSER TO 4 TO 6 FT SUN AFTN THROUGH MONDAY.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MRR

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