Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 160728 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 328 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...AT THE UPPER LEVELS A FLATTISH LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES TRANSIT OVERHEAD. THE STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE A RATHER WEAK AND AMORPHOUS PRESSURE PATTERN MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DISCERN EXACT FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND THUS SUBSEQUENT FRONTAL MOTION BUT THE GENERAL SCENARIO IS FAIRLY CLEAR. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SEEMS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING WHILE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE MERGES THE FRONTS TODAY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING A BROAD AND WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC LIFT. POST FROPA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MORE ASSERTIVELY OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL TRAIL WELL BEHIND THIS FEATURE. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY AND CONVECTIVE INDICES SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS A POSSIBILITY...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW MID LEVELS ARE ON THE DRY SIDE AND AFOREMENTIONED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA NOT VERY STRONG. BEST SHOT AT SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SKIRTS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. WILL BE KEEPING POPS IN THE FAIRLY MODEST 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR TODAY...WITH CHANCES TRAILING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRYER AND MORE STABLE AIR FILTERS IN POST-FROPA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SEASONAL...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS GIVING US HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY. LIFT WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED A LITTLE BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES FIRM CONTROL AS IT BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE GFS IS SHOWING LIGHT QPF AND THIS MAY OCCUR IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SPEED CONVERGENCE TO WARRANT. WITH SOUNDINGS RELATIVELY DRY HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS STABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH DAYS...A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WEDNESDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS...MODERATED BY THE WINDS AND EXPECTED BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SCENARIO AT THE MID LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES SHOWS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST REGIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RESULT IS A MASSIVE SURFACE HIGH THAT EXTENDS WELL DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS ALLOWS ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND I HAVE MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. REGARDING POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED MAINLY OFFSHORE. NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT OVERNIGHT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO FILL IN ONCE AGAIN AS COOL MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CIGS IS INLAND AT KFLO/KLBT AFTER 09Z. ALONG THE COAST... 1-2KFT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR BY DAYBREAK CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KCRE/KMYR. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMS THIS MORNING AS DEEPER MOISTURE INCREASES WITH A REMNANT FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD EMERGE DURING THE AFTN HOURS AS LIGHT NORTH WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTHWARD. BUT ATTM...IT APPEARS THE WIND SHIFT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER AIR WEDGES INTO THE REGION. EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON THU. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL STAY GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS...WITH SEAS NOT STRAYING FAR FROM THEIR PRESENT 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GENERALLY A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...TEN KNOTS OR LESS AND THERE MAY BE A LITTLE VEERING DUE TO SEA BREEZE EFFECTS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE A BIT THURSDAY WITH A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WITH AN INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH 3-7 FEET AND LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. FOR SATURDAY THE WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS HOWEVER REMAIN ELEVATED AS A SIGNIFICANT SWELL COMPONENT IS ADDED TO THE SPECTRUM.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...BJR

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