Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 270818 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 315 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE SHOULD START FLOWING BACK INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN WAS FALLING ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA AND THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE COLUMN MAY COOL JUST ENOUGH FOR A FEW FLURRIES TO MIX IN WITH ANY LIGHT RAIN STILL FALLING ACROSS PENDER COUNTY BEFORE IT FINALLY EDGES COMPLETELY OFFSHORE. THERE WILL BE NO ACCUMULATION GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. ALSO...GROUND TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND AIR TEMPS WILL BE NO COOLER THAN THE MID 30S. WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH THIS PERIOD AS IT VERY SLOWLY LIFTS NE THROUGH MID WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS TROUGH. THE LAST OF THE SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO EFFECT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING. EXAMINATION OF MOISTURE PROFILES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND COOLING THIS PERIOD. THIS TREND IS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH PARTIAL CLEARING UNDERWAY IN STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENT FLOW FROM BBP TO GGE WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THIS TREND WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE VERY LARGE AND STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE N GIVEN IT HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY AN UPPER LOW. CLOUDS SHOULD BE DECREASING ACROSS LUMBERTON AND THE GRAND STRAND THIS MORNING AND THEN ACROSS EYF AND ILM BY/DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD AND DRY ADVECTION WILL DROP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO UNDER ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH TODAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO MINUS 4 TO MINUS 6 DEG C. 500 MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND MINUS 30 DEG C. EVEN WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GAIN UPWARD MOMENTUM. IN FACT...WE EXPECT TEMPS TO STILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING IN SOME AREAS. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S...NORMAL FOR LATE JAN IS MID AND UPPER 50S. TONIGHT...EXPECT SKIES TO BE MAINLY CLEAR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS SNEAKING DOWN THE COAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS WILL BE ROTATING BY TO OUR N AND NE AFTER DARK. TONIGHT...WE ARE EXPECTING THE COLDEST NIGHT SINCE JAN 11TH. LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND SUNRISE WED IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S...LOWER 30S AT THE BEACHES. A SURGE OF COLD AND DRY AIR OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM FULLY DECOUPLING...THUS LIMITING THE RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT. WAKE UP WIND CHILL VALUES FOR MOST OF US WED MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL OUT OF THE 20S AND INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...FINAL MID LEVEL IMPULSE ALREADY JUST OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WHILE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A CHILLY DAY WITH A BIT OF A BREEZE TO START BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON DUE TO THE EASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SKY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND THE SENSE OF LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION REMAINS COLD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKLY REVERSING IN THE BACKING WIND FIELD JUST OFF THE SURFACE. DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S WILL QUICKLY FALL WITH SUNSET DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE 30S AND SETTLE INTO MID 20S FOR LOWS CLOSE TO DAYBREAK. THIS IS COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS RAD COOLING CONDITIONS APPEAR BETTER IF NOT OPTIMIZED. PROGRESSION OF HIGH OFF THE COAST PAIRED WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COOL FRONT SHOULD BOOST THURSDAY TEMPS TO JUST SHY OF CLIMO AND CLOUDS MAY INCREASE SLOWLY. SURFACE COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRAILS CONSIDERABLY. THE DISCONNECTION BETWEEN THE TWO PROBABLY PRECLUDES MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...COOL ADVECTION ON FRIDAY MAY BE DELAYED A BIT AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH BY EVENING OR THEREAFTER. TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER MOS HIGHS TOO HIGH OR THAT TEMPS MAY BEGIN FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE INHERITED HIGHS JUST SHY OF CLIMO. CHILLY AIRMASS SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY`S SETTLES IN FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY STILL COOL BUT WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME RAIN SPREADING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE MAY BE WRUNG OUT BY A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS THROUGH LATE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME MORE CHILLY BUT NOT ARTIC AIR. MEANWHILE INTERESTING SOUTHERN BRANCH FEATURE HANGING BACK JUST WEST OF TEXAS. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR AT THE TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AT KILM OVERNIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL N OF THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY. LATEST RADAR DEPICTS SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THIS DISTANT SYSTEM AS FAR SOUTH AS THE KILM TERMINAL. OTHER THAN PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS AT KILM OVERNIGHT...EXPECT VFR OVERNIGHT. A SLOW CLEARING TREND WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST... EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS...FIRST ACROSS KFLO OVERNIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE OTHER SITES DURING THE MORNING. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KT WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY EVE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL TUE THROUGH SAT. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...INTENSIFYING LOW OFF THE DELNJ COAST LATE THIS EVENING...WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO THE NNE OVERNIGHT AND TUE. WITH THIS STORM EXPECTED TO BOMB...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE NW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT REMAINING POSSIBLE. THE THINKING IS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS HAVE UNDERDONE/UNDERFORECAST THE WINDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AS A RESULT...HAVE PUSHED FORWARD THE ENDING OF THE SCA FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY TUESDAY. WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND TRAJECTORY...IE. VERY LIMITED FETCH FOR WAVES TO BUILD UPON...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LESS THAN 10 NM...AND 4 TO 6+ FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS FROM 10 TO 20 NM OFF THE COAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................... AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL BECOME A MONSTER STORM SYSTEM FOR NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW. FOR THE CAROLINA COAST THIS SHOULD SIMPLY BE A WIND EVENT. NORTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY 15-20 KNOTS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS HIGH WITH THIS EVENT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4-6 FT IN VERY CHOPPY SHORT PERIODS WITH THE OFFSHORE WINDS. OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY (NEARLY 35 MILES OUT) SEAS COULD BUILD TO 7-8 FT! SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY BRINGS AN INITIALLY MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL GRADUALLY EASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY ABATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVEN WITH THE EARLY DAY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS NO FLAGS EXPECTED DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPING THE LARGEST SEAS REMOVED FROM THE COASTLINE. AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST LATE THURSDAY A FURTHER DECREASE IN WIND SPEED EXPECTED WHILE CONSIDERABLE VEERING IN DIRECTION OCCURS. SEAS SETTLE IN HEIGHT EVEN IF THE PERIOD SHORTENS SLIGHTLY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PICKS UP THURSDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...COOL AIR PUSH ON FRIDAY SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW ADVISORY OR HEADLINES THRESHOLDS WITH NWRLY FLOW VEERING SLIGHTLY TO NE ON SEERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE HIGH OVER SRN GREAT LAKES. THE LARGE ANTICYCLONE WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY LEADING TO ONLY A MINOR ADDITIONAL VEER LOCALLY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ NEAR TERM...DCH/RJD SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SGL/RJD

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