Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 311155 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 755 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS TO THE COAST AND STALLS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. SPOTTY SHOWERS DOTTED THE LANDSCAPE...WITH SEVERAL SMALL SHOWERS CLUSTERED ALONG THE GRAND STRAND. THE WEAK AND SHALLOW COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TO A DPL TO AYNOR LINE AT SUNRISE AND WILL DRIFT TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST BEFORE BASICALLY STALLING THIS MORNING AND THEN BECOMING INTERTWINED WITH THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE N BEHIND THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALONG THE COAST...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE COLUMN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOPPING 2.25 INCHES. FOR OUR INLAND LOCATIONS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO TOP 2.25 INCHES AND WILL BE HIGH INTO THE MID AND LATE EVE HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SAT. IN ADDITION TO FRONTAL LIFT AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PIVOT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVE HOURS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO OUR N OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST...IN BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND A HOT RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN GENERALLY LEADS TO UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WE ARE EXPECTING CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WILL CARRY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE CENTERED AROUND THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL BE LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WE ARE EXPECTING LOWER HIGHS THAN ON THU. THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION TODAY...HIGHS IN MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. SOME OF THE BEACHES WILL NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO 90 TODAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE UP TO 100 TO 103 DEGREES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TYPICAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF JULY...LOWER TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED IN THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE HARD TO PICK OUT AT TIMES. DAILY SEA BREEZE WILL MASK THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEAST ONCE DAYTIME HEATING GENERATES THE SEA BREEZE. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE WORKING AGAINST CONVECTION. THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP MOISTURE JUST OFF THE COAST ALL WEEKEND...SOME OF WHICH WILL TRY AND MOVE ONSHORE FROM TIME TO TIME. BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING WILL BE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS SAT...BEFORE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID LEVEL NORTHWEST PUSH IS ABLE TO MOVE THE MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE. WILL CARRY SLIGHTLY HIGHER POP FOR SAT COMPARED TO SUN...THOUGH BOTH DAYS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHC CATEGORY. IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE AREA...ONE SAT AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ON SUN. THE PROBLEM FOR BOTH WILL BE THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF MOISTURE. WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY/FRONT COULD BE ENHANCED BY THE PASSAGE OF SUCH FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING MON INTO TUE WILL BRIEFLY MAKE WAY AS 5H RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY...ALONG THE COAST...SLOWLY DISSIPATES. PROXIMITY OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE COAST AND PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WARRANTS CHC POP MON WITH HIGHEST VALUES AT THE COAST. RIDGING TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST TUE INTO WED WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR LEADING TO A REDUCTION IN PRECIP CHANCES. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID LEVEL DRYING WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MS VALLEY WED ERODES RIDGING ALOFT WHICH IS REPLACED BY TROUGHING WED NIGHT INTO THU. DEEP MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL TROUGHING COMBINED WITH HEATING AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES AS THE PERIOD ENDS. ALTHOUGH HARD TO TIME 7 DAYS IN THE FUTURE THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVE ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION ON THU. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TO END THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...A COLD FRONT MARKED BY SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEW POINTS WAS E OF A KLBT/KFLO LINE MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST. A WEAK TROUGH WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WAS LOCATED NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND MOVING OFFSHORE. TERMINALS ARE VFR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME THIS MORNING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING 17-19Z INITIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE WILL INTERACT. NW WINDS ALOFT WILL STEER CONVECTION TOWARDS THE COASTAL TERMINALS. AS OUTFLOW BOUNDERS OCCUR THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WEST TO NEAR KFLO/KLBT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND STABILIZATION LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING TO NO WORSE THAN MVFR LEVELS. OVERNIGHT IF CLOUDS SCATTER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST SOILS IFR CIGS/VSBYS COULD DEVELOP. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL DRIFT N OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS TO THE COAST AND STALLS...REMAINING WEST OF THE WATERS. SW TO WSW WINDS WILL DOMINATE...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS MORNING WITH A FRONT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...UP TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS UP TO 4 FT WILL BE MORE COMMON LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A MAINLY WEAK 8 TO 10 SECOND SE SWELL WILL PERSIST. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...WEAK FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP THE WIND FIELD LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. DURING THE DAY...AS THE SEA BREEZE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KT. AT NIGHT THE FRONT WILL TRY AND MOVE OFFSHORE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...5 TO 10 KT. SEAS AROUND 3 FT SAT WILL RUN 3 TO 4 FT ON SUN. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...FRONT STALLED JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST MON MORNING WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY AS BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES THE DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURE. SOUTHWEST FLOW MON CONTINUE ON TUE WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT...SLIGHTLY HIGH NEAR SHORE DUE TO SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 5 FT POSSIBLE NEAR 20 NM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE AND FULL MOON WHICH OCCURS TODAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS 1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...PROBABILITY IS LIKELY. HOWEVER...THIS CYCLE...EVEN THE BEACHES HAVE A SMALL RISK. HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IS ABOUT 800 PM AT THE BEACHES AND ABOUT 1030 PM IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IF COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...MRR

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