Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 271456 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1056 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING A DRYING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A COASTAL TROUGH WEAKENS OFFSHORE. A WET FORECAST IS SHAPING UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-BUILD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...THAT OBJECT IN THE SKY THIS MORNING IS ACTUALLY THE SUN...SOMETHING NOT SEEN AROUND HERE IN ABOUT A WEEK. WHILE THE GENERAL PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED DRASTICALLY...RIDGING ALOFT HAS PUSHED THE SURFACE HIGH MORE STRONGLY TO THE SOUTH WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ENVELOPING THE LOCAL AREA. COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE...WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT...BUT IT IS IN A WEAKENING STATE AND WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE COLUMN HAS DRIED CONSIDERABLY FROM MUCH OF THE WEEK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE LOWEST 8-10 KFT. THIS WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD STRATOCU/DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN...AND A PARTLY OR EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTN IS ANTICIPATED. ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL LINGER JUST OFFSHORE MOST OF THE DAY...AS THIS GETS THROWN BACK TOWARDS THE COAST IT WILL ERODE INTO A DRIER ENVIRONMENT...AND THUS ONLY A SCHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST TODAY. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GRAND STRAND...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND HAVE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATERS THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH COOL NE FLOW PERSISTING...SOLAR INSOLATION WILL HELP RAISE TEMPS TOWARDS CLIMO NORMS TODAY...AROUND 80 MOST LOCATIONS. SHOWERS MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ACROSS SC ZONES...AS THE COASTAL TROUGH GETS SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AND MOISTURE GETS PUSHED TOWARDS THE COAST. HAVE CONTINUED SCHC POP ALL NIGHT FOR THE GRAND STRAND AND SOUTHERN PEE DEE...ALTHOUGH QPF WILL BE MINIMAL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE QUITE A BIT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...FROM ABOUT 60 IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 60S NEAR THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...BEST CHANCE OF SUNSHINE WILL COME ON SUNDAY AS WEDGE BREAKS DOWN A AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ALIGNED UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUGGEST A MIX OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH WEAKENING SFC TROUGH JUST OFF SHORE AND SHIFTING SOUTH...WILL INCLUDE GREATEST CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP ON SUNDAY MAINLY ALONG NE SC COAST AND PLACES SOUTH. SFC WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS THEY BECOME MORE E-SE AND EVENTUALLY S WHILE A DEEPER SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PCP WATER VALUES DOWN CLOSE TO 1.25 INCHES SUN MORNING WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY REACHING BACK UP AROUND 2 INCHES BY MON AFTN. THE SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW EASTWARD ON MONDAY. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT COMBINE WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON FRONT END OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. TEMPS SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY IN SOME SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY AND SOME WAA HEADING THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT READINGS AROUND 80 DURING THE DAY AND 60S OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL RIDE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON TUES SHIFTING OFF SHORE BY WED. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COULD PRODUCE A FAIRLY DECENT QPF EVENT ON TUES BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TUES NIGHT INTO WED. PCP WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES TUES MORNING WILL DROP LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES THROUGH LATE TUES INTO WED. MAY SEE SOME CLEARING BUT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WEDGE LIKE SCENARIO MAY SET BACK UP WED AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH EXERTS ITSELF INTO THE INLAND CAROLINAS WHILE TROUGH LINGERS JUST OFF THE COAST. THIS MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCP WED THROUGH FRI. THE WEDGE SHOULD BREAK ON FRI AS DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS. TEMPS ON TUES SHOULD BE THE WARMEST IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND PCP WILL KEEP A MORE MODEST RISE AND FALL. ONCE LOW SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY WED SHOULD SEE COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW KEEP TEMPS DOWN BELOW NORMAL WED THROUGH FRI. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US NORTHEAST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE. PREDOMINATELY A MID CLOUD CEILING TODAY...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH LBT AS THERE IS SOME SCATTERED STRATUS THERE AROUND FIVE HUNDRED FEET. VFR CLOUDS IN AND OUT TODAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FOG TONIGHT...BUT WILL REEVALUATE WITH NEXT MODEL RUN. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR MON AND TUE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MVFR/IFR CIGS ON WED. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE COAST...AND A COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR SINK SOUTHWARD TODAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE ASSERTING ITSELF TO THE SOUTH...WILL CAUSE A SLOWLY WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS THIS MORNING OF 15-25 KTS FROM THE NE WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE ALL PERIOD...BUT WILL WEAKEN TO 10-20 KTS TONIGHT. SEAS ARE 3-5 FT AT THE LOCAL BUOYS...BUT EXPECT THERE ARE 6 FTERS IN THE 15-20NM RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WHERE THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT. SC WATERS WILL CONTINUE UNDER A SCEC THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN AS COASTAL TROUGH WEAKENS THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW NE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS EARLY SUNDAY TO BECOME MORE E-SE THROUGH MONDAY AND DROP TO 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT EARLY SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE IN A LIGHTER ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FT BY MONDAY. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...WINDS SHOULD BE S-SE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON TUES. ONCE THIS LOW SHIFTS OFF SHORE BY WED...WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING NORTHERLY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING NORTHERLY WIND BY WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WNA SHOWING A LONGER PERIOD UP TO 12 SEC E-SE SWELL ENTERING THE WATERS BY LATE WED.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250- 252. && $$ NEAR TERM...17 SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DL

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