Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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192 FXUS62 KILM 041148 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 648 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE UP ALONG THE FRONT. THE LAST OF THESE WAVES WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP THE WHOLE SYSTEM SEAWARD EARLY FRIDAY...FINALLY ENDING THE RAIN. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW DURING FRIDAY AND PERSIST ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A QUICK BOUT OF RAIN WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW MIXING IN. ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...BOUTS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAPE FEAR AREA UNTIL 830 AM WHERE SOME OF THE STEADIEST RAIN HAS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHS FOR THE DAY HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN MOST LOCATIONS...THEY OCCURRED DURING THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY NEAR THE COAST... PERHAPS RISING A DEGREE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS MORNING. TEMPS WELL INLAND HAVE EASED LOWER AS THE COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPS SLOWLY LOWERING ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 50S. MORE RAIN TODAY AND THIS RAIN WILL BE FALLING ON WET GROUND. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO FALL HEAVILY...IT WILL BE STEADY. A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE COAST AND THEN MOVE NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL KEEP THE DEEP CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE FROM MOVING OFFSHORE. FINALLY...A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRI MORNING...KICKING THE WHOLE SYSTEM SEAWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON WED AND WED NIGHT WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS COULD AGAIN FALL TODAY. THIS IS A VERY GOOD SOAKING GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN THE SOILS ARE NOT ABLE TO SOAK UP AS MUCH WATER GIVEN THE LACK OF GROWING VEGETATION AND SHORTER DAYS. HOWEVER...THE DURATION OF THE RAIN EVENT DOES HELP TO ALLEVIATE FLOOD CONCERNS SOMEWHAT...WITH THE RAIN FALLING OVER 30 TO 36 HOURS. ALSO...THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE MORE OF A STEADY MODERATE RAIN RATHER THAN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. FOR THESE REASONS...A FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER... THERE WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER IN SOME LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. SO POPS WILL AGAIN BE 100 PERCENT BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E LATE TONIGHT AS COLUMN FINALLY DRIES OUT DRAMATICALLY. THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR AREA...MAY STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN DROPS FALLING NEAR DAYBREAK FRI...BUT EVEN HERE...THEY WILL END QUICKLY. THE LAST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE COAST LATE TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO WRAP NOT ONLY DRIER AIR TO THE COAST...BUT CHILLY AIR AS IT MOVES N OF OUR LATITUDE AND INTENSIFIES. THE COLUMN IS EXPECTED TO DRY BEFORE ANY MIX WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION CAN OCCUR. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY BARRELING THROUGH HERE EARLY FRI MORNING...IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE A BRIEF AND ISOLATED FLURRY COULD OCCUR AS THE LAST OF THE QUICKLY DWINDLING MOISTURE IS WRUNG OUT. GIVEN THE VERY LOW PROBABILITY...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN GRIDS. IT WILL TURN BRISK OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY...ESPECIALLY LATE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 BY SUNRISE FRI.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING EARLY FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW BRIEFLY. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S BOTH DAYS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S SATURDAY MORNING. THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A FAST MOVING TROUGH DIVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL SPARK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH THE SURFACE LOW AS THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA. THE ECMWF HAS A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SCENARIO AND HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMIC LIFT SHOULD DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW MOSTLY RAIN. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S SATURDAY AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING TO ABOUT 30...IT APPEARS THERE WILL JUST BE TOO MUCH COOLING NECESSARY FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. NOT THAT THERE WON`T BE DIABATIC COOLING OF THE PROFILE WITH THE RAIN FALLING AND DYNAMIC COOLING AS WELL WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS...ITS CLEARLY NOTED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND IN THE 850MB PLAN VIEW OF THE GFS WITH THE COLD POCKETS DEVELOPING. AS STATED BEFORE THE ANTECEDENT THERMAL PROFILES AND THE RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINFALL RATES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME TO PRODUCE SNOW. SO THAT BEING SAID...THE CHANCES OF FROZEN PRECIP HAVE JOGGED A LITTLE LOWER BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. ONE POSITIVE IS THAT A LIGHTER QPF EVENT MAY PRECLUDE FLOODING CONCERNS COMING OFF THE CURRENT EVENT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES WILL GET KICKED OUT QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST LATER SUNDAY. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO A QUICK END. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR DEEP EAST COAST TROUGHING TO DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO ABOUT MINUS TWELVE C WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS THE COLDEST AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST AND MODIFIES SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS IS PROBABLY...ALONG WITH THE CLIMATOLOGY FACTOR THE REASON MEX GUIDANCE ISN`T TOO COLD RELATIVELY SPEAKING AT THIS POINT. OVERALL FEW CHANGES WITH A COLD FORECAST AND THE LINGERING POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLAKES FROM TIME TO TIME. TIMING IS DIFFICULT ON THE BEST CHANCE BUT IT WOULD APPEAR A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY FAVOR THE PM HOURS. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OFFSHORE CREATES SHOWERS...LOW CIGS...AND AREAS OF FOG. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST. THIS WITH LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 8 KT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE WEST...BECOMING NORTHERLY THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR TODAY. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRI. THE SEA STATE WILL TURN MUCH MORE TURBULENT LATE TONIGHT AND FRI AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES UP THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. WE EXPECT STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO GALE FORCE FRI MORNING. SINCE WE WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO GALE WARNING CRITERIA...A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BEGIN THE DAY FROM THE SSW OR SW...BUT THEN AS THE FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS...THE DIRECTION WILL VEER TO W AND NW LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NNW TO N. WIND SPEEDS TODAY AND THIS EVE WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT... INCREASING SHARPLY OVERNIGHT...REACHING 20 TO 30 KT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRI. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 5 FT THIS MORNING. SEAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE WILL SUBSIDE TO MAINLY 3 TO 4 FT. EXPECT SEAS WILL ABRUPTLY BUILD OVERNIGHT...REACHING 6 TO 9 FT BY DAWN FRI. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...BRIEF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL PRODUCE VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS INITIALLY...ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KNOTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE GRADIENT RELAXES QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TO 15- 20 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY PRODUCING A NORTHEAST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS. THE SPEEDS MAY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. RUGGED SEAS WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY AND CONTINUE INTO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. EXPECT A MORE MODEST RANGE OF 2-4 FEET SATURDAY. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF FRI. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY AS VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SPEEDS 20-25 KNOTS AND MAYBE A LITTLE HIGHER LATE VIA STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. A BRIEF RESPITE MONDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT WHICH WILL BRING RUGGED CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH SEAS SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE VIA THE FLOW DROPPING A BIT MONDAY.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...SHK/RJD LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL

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