Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 201736 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 136 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE SOME COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 135 PM WEDNESDAY...UPDATED THE LAND FORECASTS TO INCREASE POP VALUES ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. ORIENTATION OF A WIND CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ALIGNED NEARLY ALONG THE PREVAILING STORM MOTION IS LEADING TO TRAINING OF CELLS IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF INLAND NC. FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING DUE TO HIGH PWAT CONTENT AND POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL EPISODES OF RAINFALL. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT BETWEEN 1.75 AND 1.85 INCHES REMAINS LOADED IN THE COLUMN CURRENTLY AS REVEALED IN 12Z RAOBS DATA FROM MHX/CHS. THE POTENT UPPER SWIRL YESTERDAY THAT MOVED OFFSHORE LAST NIGHT...PUSHED A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLIER THIS MORNING. NO APPRECIABLE AIR MASS CHANGE IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE EXCEPT THAT DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST WHILE TAPERING INLAND AND A LIGHT W-NW WIND ACROSS INLAND AREAS. SIMILAR TO MON/TUE...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL ENSURE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE INTO AFTERNOON IN A MOIST COLUMN. OF SOME CONCERN IS THAT PROJECTED STEERING WINDS WILL CARRY DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION DIRECTLY PERPENDICULAR INTO A ROBUST SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY. THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW APPEARS POISED TO KEEP THIS MARINE BOUNDARY FASTENED CLOSE TO THE COAST...WHILE UPPER WINDS GUIDE ACTIVITY TO THE BEACHES AND COASTAL INTERIOR LATER TODAY. VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IMPINGING THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS PRESENTLY...WHICH TIMING-WISE IS SET TO ENTER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS INTO OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEAT BUILD-UP...LIKELY SPARKING STORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. APPARENT TEMPS/HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 ACROSS NC AND 101-104 OVER OUR SC INTERIOR LOCATIONS TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES. STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY. INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED. HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...ANOTHER SUMMER DAY...MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE LATE...AROUND 20Z LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET. MOST OF IT WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY INLAND. WILL STICK WITH A TEMPO GROUP AS HRRR AND THE WRF MODEL DO HAVE DECENT COVERAGE THE THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RESULTANT BOUNDARY. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR PATCHY IFR FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 135 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK MEANDERING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM WATERS...WILL REVERT BACK TO NORTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WILL MAINLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH WIND DIRECTION CHANGES AS A RESULT...WITH OVERALL WIND SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS DUE TO LACK OF ANY DECENT SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN UP TO 3 FT...AND MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-2 FOOT PSEUDO GROUND SWELL AT 7+ SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...COLBY SHORT TERM...BACON LONG TERM...BACON AVIATION...DAVE/8

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